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What podcasters are saying about AI bubble & tech valuations
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In the past 30 days, 102 speakers on 34 finance podcasts discussed AI bubble & tech valuations in 143 views. Chorus has followed AI bubble & tech valuations since September 25, 2026: 146 views from 103 speakers on 35 shows.
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Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners
The AI equity cycle is near its end, so valuations will reset as capex-heavy companies' numbers come down.
Weiss says that he is not saying the spending is ending, but the equity growth in the cycle is nearing its end. Valuations will go back to fundamentals, and earnings estimates will come down, especially for companies on the capex side that build infrastructure rather than just spend. He points to private-market financing trouble and the lack of real guarantees as signs the cycle is turning.
“I'm saying the growth in the cycle has near its end in terms of the equities, and now it's gonna be back to valuation.”at 11:36
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management
A lot of money will be wasted on the AI build-out, but skepticism is healthy because it dampens the bubble.
Talkington agrees with Weiss that a lot of money will be wasted by hyperscalers. He says the build-out is still early and that the skepticism creeping into stock prices is healthy because it stops and dampens the bubble from continuing to build. He argues that many large sell-offs are overdone because of this skepticism.
“A lot of money will be wasted... it's early days, and I think that skepticism ultimately is very healthy. It really, like, stops and dampens this, like, bubble from continuing to build.”at 12:30
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Market has a reverse bubble: many cheap stocks trade at steep PEG discounts, not an AI bubble.
Hatfield says that rather than an AI bubble, many cheap stocks trade at huge discounts to their PEG ratios, so they are on sale. He says the late-1990s was the real bubble, when AOL Time Warner traded at about 500x earnings. He says bubbles should be supported with data, and that his Marvell and Amazon comparisons show value is available in the AI stack.
“everybody says, oh, where there's an AI bubble up. I'm like, there's an AI reverse bubble... so many cheap stocks out there trading at huge discounts to their PEG ratio that I think it's actually the polar opposite of that.”at 18:07
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
Hyperscalers are not immune to an AI unwind; the assumption of immunity is unrealistic.
Investors assume hyperscalers' strong operating cash flow makes them immune to an AI unwind. Alex calls this unrealistic. He draws an imperfect analogy with subprime, where the equity tranche and the AAA tranches both went to zero. He does not claim hyperscalers will go to zero. His point is that AI is in almost everything, and a prolonged AI unwind would hit everything, because nothing is immune and you are either long or short AI.
“you assume that these businesses have got fantastic operating cash flow that they're gonna be completely immune from any AI unwind, and I think that's a very unrealistic proposition.”at 54:36
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
AI capex needs about $1tn of revenue by 2028; he sees run-rate near $400bn, so the gap is unfunded.
Committed AI capex needs roughly $1tn of revenue by the end of 2028 to pay off. Alex's run rate for then is around $400bn, so there is a large gap to fill. He cannot see where the revenue will come from, and by comparison the cumulative revenue of Apple and Microsoft since 1990 is only about $9.8tn inflation-adjusted. That gap drove Barclays' shift to a more bearish fundamental view on AI at the end of August.
“We need a trillion dollars of revenues, basically, by the end of twenty twenty eight to pay for all of this CapEx... And right now, our run rate for then is gonna be somewhere around about 400 [billion]. ... I just don't see where the revenue's gonna come from.”at 1:02:18
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management
AI and tech are not a valuation bubble; at most an earnings bubble, with semis driving growth.
Brown argues the market is an anti-bubble because it prices in growth skepticism every day. The only credible claim is an earnings bubble, meaning tech profitability is unsustainable, not a valuation bubble. Tech earnings are estimated to grow 65.6% year over year this quarter, but only 24.9% excluding semiconductors and semi equipment, so semis are the biggest contributors. Western Digital and Oracle beat EPS estimates, yet the SMH semiconductor ETF has had no 52-week highs since July, with no above-average reading in new highs. He calls this inconsistent with a bubble.
“It is an anti bubble. The only thing that you can credibly say is that it's an earnings bubble... You cannot say it's a valuation bubble.”at 48:35
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Ed Elson · Prof G Media
Any AI bubble is very small with risks priced in; expects a correction but not a crash.
Elson agrees with Brown that AI multiples have fallen sharply: Nvidia's has dropped almost 50% since last year, and Micron's has been cut roughly in half. Depending on the definition of bubble, he thinks it is very small, with all the risks of things going wrong already priced in. He says Wall Street is front-running the boom-bust cycle after the 2008 short, so he expects some correction or drawdown. He thinks even a crash would look like nothing compared with past crashes.
“It's a very, very small one where it seems as though all of the risks of things going wrong are being priced in.”at 52:16
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Rick Wurster · The Charles Schwab Corporation
Not clearly a bubble: many stocks look fairly or undervalued, though some are richly priced.
Rick says the market feels like a boom after several years of strong returns, but he is not convinced it is a bubble. His reason is that a tremendous number of stocks look fairly valued or undervalued. Some highly valued companies have incredible fundamentals and are creating new markets, so high multiples are not surprising. He still finds many companies that look cheap.
“one thing that gives me some confidence that maybe we're not in a bubble is there is a tremendous number of stocks that I think are either fairly valued or undervalued.”at 4:48
Bloomberg Talks: Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster Talks Future of AI ·
James Bullard · Purdue University
The AI boom shows red flags on revenue, build-out pace and borrowing, and markets are starting to crack.
Bullard thinks the Fed would welcome some tempering of the AI boom. He lists several red flags: where the revenue will come from, how fast the build-out will proceed, and how much borrowing is going on. He says markets are starting to crack a little and are trying to calibrate where the boom goes next. He implies the Fed prefers smoother, less frenzied markets.
“I think there are many red flags that have been waving here about this, you know, where's the revenue going to come from, how fast this build out going to occur, what about all this borrowing going on... it is starting to crack a little bit”at 20:31
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)
The AI bubble has not deflated; greed persists, though AI has more substance than past bubbles.
Lundin sees only some skepticism in tech stocks, not an abandonment of the AI idea. A big drop last week was followed by a rebound, so he thinks greed and belief remain. He concedes there is real substance behind AI, unlike many past bubbles, but says that substance is stealing attention from other sectors, and he expects gold and silver miners to get attention only once the AI bubble starts to deflate.
“I think there's still a greed factor there and still a belief in that. And to be fair, there is some reality there. It's not like a lot of the other bubbles we've had in the past.”at 8:26
Thoughtful Money: Gold & Silver Weakness Now Offers A "Generational Opportunity" | Brien Lundin ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
The dot-com bust hit equities more than credit; the AI bust has more bank and credit exposure.
During the dot-com bust there was less credit at risk than equity, so equities took the hit. Some banks were under pressure, but there was no major meltdown in bank lending or credit quality, and the Fed stepped in with liquidity. Today the AI build-out has more bank exposure, both direct and indirect through private credit, so the credit channel is a bigger risk than in 2000.
“there wasn't as much credit at risk as there was equity. So the equities took the hit.”at 26:52
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Jack Altman · Benchmark
Frontier AI labs are very important but unlikely to be $6 trillion companies; a middle outcome is the happy path.
Jack says the earlier fear was either a Terminator-style AI takeover or that AI wouldn't matter, like crypto. He points to the market's positive reaction to Anthropic as evidence that the outcome is landing in the middle: the labs are extremely important, but not trillions-of-dollars companies, and the technology is useful. He calls this the happy path and says his odds of it have risen. The argument rests on the market's reaction and his view of AI's usefulness, with the caveat that RSI could change things.
“where the labs are extremely important, but they are not [$6 trillion] companies”at 40:19
Uncapped with Jack Altman: Benchmark Breakfast #1 | Jack and Ev ·
Danielle DiMartino Booth · QI Research
A shock to the US AI trade would spread globally, and the AI trade is shaky if credit markets turn.
She cites an IMF report warning that if anything happened to the AI trade in the US, it would have contagion effects globally. Foreigners have been selling Treasuries for years and loading up on US corporate bonds and US stocks, and everyone has piled into the AI trade. She argues the recent weeks show that the AI trade becomes very shaky if credit markets get angry, which ties the AI-valuation risk to the credit backdrop.
“The IMF came out with a report warning that should anything happen to the AI trade in The United States, it would have contagion effects globally because everybody's piled in hand over fist to the AI trade.”at 20:54
The Julia La Roche Show: #426 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Could Slam the Economy Into Recession — Fed Day Reaction ·
Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital
Current AI boom looks more like the dot-com than the GFC; funding dries up when overvaluation is recognised.
Vincent sets out a crisis pattern: excessive investment turns into malinvestment, usually funded by debt. A leverage problem follows, and when investors realise the investment is overvalued and funding dries up, the crisis begins. He says he has read many comparisons of today to the GFC or the dot-com. His view is that this feels more like the dot-com, and he is curious whether the AI build-out funding will be available at reasonable interest rates.
“every potential crisis rhymes. Right? It's usually excessive investment turns into malinvestment, usually funded by debt. A leverage problem ensues.”at 9:59
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Danny Moses · Moses Ventures
AI capex resembles the dot-com build-out; secular trades turn cyclical through a healthy weeding-out.
Danny compares the current AI trade to the dot-com bubble, when fiber was wrapped around the earth 100 times and nobody checked the economics. He says the current phase is similar, though he is not equating Lucent and Nortel with the hyperscalers or Nvidia. Both the dot-com and GFC periods occurred during rate-hike cycles, so capital was getting more expensive. He argues that secular growth trades eventually become cyclical, and that this produces a healthy weeding-out process. He also questions how many data centers will be funded, chip prices, and the depreciation life of the equipment.
“But I'll just note that secular trades eventually become cyclical, and it's a healthy weeding out process.”at 12:22
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
AI is in the denial phase of a bubble; investors remain overwhelmingly bullish despite financing stress.
Altman describes a bubble chart where the first decline is a denial phase. He says he would not claim the bubble has popped, but argues the market is in denial because nearly everyone is still extremely bullish. He backs this with a survey where only about 60% of investors said AI financing would be a problem, even though recent events should have pushed that to 100%. He reads the gap between the bullish consensus and the financing evidence as denial of a reality already here.
“I'm not gonna say we're at kind of this bubble's popped... we're in the denial phase right now because everyone is still extremely bullish.”at 5:43
Odd Lots: What Wall Street Really Thinks About the AI Trade Now ·
Tim Melvin · Community Bank Investor
Hyperscaler AI spending returns may revert to utility-like returns, especially for data centers; valuations will correct.
Melvin compares the AI build-out to the 1999 Internet bubble, when every promised outcome happened but investors still lost badly. Microsoft took 17 years to break even, and Cisco investors are still waiting. When he looks at the implied rates of return on hyperscaler spending, he thinks those returns could fall back to utility-like rates, especially for data center projects. He says AI is a big deal, but that does not justify the valuations of second- and third-tier players, so the market will eventually correct.
“I mean, when I look at the implied rates of return in the hyperscaler spend, that's gonna be tough because these returns could very well go back to utility like rate of return.”at 57:57
The Acquirers Podcast: Tim Melvin: Finding Value Where Wall Street Isn’t Looking ·
Axel Merk · Merk Investments
AI debt binge could cause a slowdown that forces the Fed to react; hedge with metals.
Merk says the AI debt load is a bearish risk he hasn't fully covered. If there is a slowdown because of too much of a debt binge on the AI train, unlike the late nineties, he thinks the Fed will react, because the debt burden will need buffering when it implodes. He suggests diversifying into precious metals, including miners, as a hedge against that outcome. The argument is conditional on a slowdown occurring.
“If we ought to have a slowdown because there's too much of a [debt] binge on the AI train, different from the late nineties, I do think that the Fed will react to that because this debt burden is gonna needs to be buffered, right, when that implodes.”at 1:15:59
Thoughtful Money: FOMC Live Reaction: Is The Fed Making A Policy Error? | Axel Merk ·
Priya Misra · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
An AI trade sell-off would tighten financial conditions, so markets would do the Fed's work.
Misra argues the Fed is watching financial conditions because the AI trade matters to them. If the AI trade deflates, interest rates might fall, but financial conditions could still tighten. That would let the market tighten policy on the Fed's behalf, which would reduce the Fed's urgency to act. She reads the chair as explicit that the AI trade is interest-rate sensitive, pushing back on the idea that it is not.
“It's not just the labor market and inflation, it's going to be financial conditions. If the air is coming out of the AI trade, interest rates might come down but financial conditions might tighten and then the markets doing the work for the Fed.”at 11:00
Bloomberg Talks: Instant Reaction: Fed Stands Pat; Lisa Cook & Beth Hammack Dissent ·
Priya Misra · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
If AI trade deflates, financial conditions tighten and the market, not the Fed, does the work.
Misra argues monetary policy works through financial conditions. The chair said financial conditions had tightened and that this was roughly what the Fed expected, which she reads as pushback against the idea that the AI trade is not rate-sensitive. Her mechanism: if air comes out of the AI trade, rates might fall but financial conditions would still tighten, so markets would do the Fed's tightening work. That makes the AI trade a live input into how much the Fed needs to move, and she thinks this is part of why the Fed is buying time.
“If the air is coming out of the AI trade, interest rates might come down but financial conditions might tighten and then the market's doing the work for the Fed.”at 10:51
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: Fed Stands Pat; Lisa Cook & Beth Hammack Dissent ·
Gita Gopinath · Harvard University
A burst AI bubble would wipe out a rising amount of global wealth, now estimated at $41T versus her earlier $35T.
Gopinath says her earlier estimate, written about a year ago, was that a dot-com-style correction would cost global wealth about $35T. That estimate is now $41T and rising, while enthusiasm for US equities continues despite some caution. She treats the AI bubble as a real risk to global wealth.
“my estimate was that the hit would be about 35,000,000,000,000 to global wealth if there was a .com/correction. Right now, that number is 41,000,000,000,000, so it's it's going up.”at 5:50
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28th, 2026 ·
Lisa Shalett · Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
AI is in a bubble; the open question is how close it is to popping, and she sees room left to run.
Asked whether this is a bubble, Shalett says of course it is. The debate is over how close it is to popping. She thinks there is still a way to run because there is money still to be spent. The big players are expected to put it in the ground regardless. Companies are re-levering and testing equity and debt markets to fund the buildout.
“everyone says, are we in the bubble? My answer is always, of course we are. And the question is just how close are we to it popping?”at 28:58
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28th, 2026 ·
David Schassler · VanEck
AI is the most-hated trade, but it is very early and the trend will run a long time.
People are already writing AI off, yet the technology is still being refined and improving faster and faster, infrastructure is still being built, and companies are still working out how to use it. Bubbles are not popped when people know exactly how it will happen, and bull markets don't end this way. He thinks the trend runs a very long time, with five to seven years likely to be needed before payoff is visible. VanEck is leaning into the theme.
“bubbles aren't popped when people exactly know how it's gonna happen. Right? Bull markets don't end this way. We're very, very early in this. We think it runs for a very, very long period of time.”at 22:50
Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
The AI bubble is unraveling and is a major driver of the stock market decline, alongside the Middle East and midterms.
Grandich says the unraveling of the AI bubble matters as much to the current stock decline as the Middle East crisis. He argues investors have concluded AI is not the win-all for everything, and that the technology sector is finally breaking down. He says tech had been carrying a narrowing market, so without it the market would be down a lot. He expects historians to call this the biggest bubble ever on Wall Street, a single asset passed around on promises that everyone would benefit. He also points to big technology companies whose free cash flow has swung negative as they spend heavily on AI, and says mega-cap companies treated like countries are a mistake.
“I also believe as important as the Middle East is to the stock market right now decline, so is the unraveling of this enormous AI bubble.”at 4:51
The David Lin Report: China's Tech Stocks Crash 40%: Is Wall Street Next? | David Woo ·
Ben Carlson · Ritholtz Wealth Management
Market is far more levered to AI today than to the internet in 1999.
Responding to Michael's question, Ben says the answer is clearly yes. In the late 1990s the biggest companies included Citigroup, AIG and General Electric, not only tech names. Today the largest companies are almost all tech, so the market is much more concentrated in the AI-linked trade.
“Because if you look at what the biggest companies were in the late nineteen nineties, it wasn't all tech companies. ... The biggest companies are all these tech companies.”at 6:01
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Ben Carlson · Ritholtz Wealth Management
If an AI bust happens, it likely means a short, minor recession, not a financial crisis.
Ben reviews a TS Lombard bust scenario built on capex recycling, vendor financing, off-balance-sheet leverage, circular financing and customer concentration. That scenario ends with a minor recession rather than a financial crisis. Ben says this is his baseline if a bust happens: a short, shallow recession, after which the market recovers and AI remains a big theme.
“To me, if we did get a bust, that would probably be my baseline as well. Like this isn't gonna be some nasty financial crisis. We get a very short recession.”at 12:31
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management
Bull market likely continues; bearish fear is already priced in, so caution may look wrong later.
Michael says the market is already pricing in a lot of risk: forward multiples have contracted and everyone talks about risk. He leans toward the bull market continuing and finds the bust case less compelling. He cites AI firms with large cash balances and improving losses, and the Polymarket bubble definition, which he thinks requires extreme outcomes. He suggests that in a few years people may ask why they were so bearish.
“Isn't there also another world where three years from now, four years from now, ten years from now, we were like, why were we so bearish?”at 17:19
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Andrew McDermott · Mission Value Partners
Big Tech's AI spending is a gigantic negative return on invested capital, visible in balance sheets.
He argues that AI is not adding to human flourishing or creating economic value, and that its return on invested capital is deeply negative. He says this shows up mathematically on the balance sheets of the companies spending the money. He calls it a misallocation of human capital, competing with finance, and says a handful of tech leaders' spending that generates no revenue is a vanity project that won't produce real leadership.
“It's not creating economic value. It is a gigantic negative return on invested capital. You can see it mathematically on the balance sheets of these companies.”at 27:19
Top Traders Unplugged: GM109: Why Buffett Finally Went All In on Japan ft. Andrew McDermott ·
Gary Gensler · MIT Sloan School of Management
AI boom will decelerate and then reverse within 18-30 months; depth depends on debt in the system.
Gensler expects a deceleration of the AI boom followed by some form of reversal in the next 18 to 30 months. He says the open question is timing and depth, and that depth depends on how much debt is in the system, where it sits and who holds it. He cites history (railroads, canals, the internet) and a game-theory dynamic in which everyone wants a piece of the boom, so capital markets tend to overfund in exuberance. As evidence he points to Meta raising $90 billion in equity and Broadcom announcing a $63 billion package of complex guarantees that was not in its S-1, all off balance sheet. He says he believes the economy is in the late stages of a capital expenditure boom, which makes the Fed's job harder if the boom decelerates. He says he can be positive about the technology and still expect capital to overshoot.
“Well, I think that we will have a deceleration of this AI boom and then some form of a reversal in the next eighteen to thirty months.”at 2:35
Bloomberg Talks: Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler Talks AI Boom & More ·
Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management
AI-trade stocks down about 20% from summer highs may be an opportunity to buy again.
The AI leaders basket was up nearly 100% by the end of June, then gave all of it back. Semis, neoclouds and power infrastructure fell in the second half. Brown says many AI-trade stocks now sell about 20% below their July and August valuations. With the Fed meeting, Anthropic's IPO and midterms out of the way and investors holding cash, he sees room for enthusiasm to return and the sell-off to become an opportunity.
“a lot of stocks involved in the AI trade selling at a 20% discount to the valuations they were at this July and August”at 19:34
The Compound and Friends: Dirty Dozen Charts, Anthropic’s S-1, Amazon Earnings Preview, Cost of Capital Hits AI ·
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