Speaker · Updated
Danny Moses: latest market views
Moses Ventures
Summary
Danny Moses is the founder of Moses Ventures and host of the On The Tape podcast, best known as Steve Eisman's former head trader at FrontPoint Partners and for his role in the housing-collapse trade chronicled in The Big Short.
Chorus has 41 views from Danny Moses across 4 episodes on On The Tape with Danny Moses and The Real Eisman Playbook since October 14, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms and Microsoft; bearish on Anthropic, CoreWeave and NVIDIA.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AlphabetBullish ·
- Amazon.comBullish ·
- AnthropicBearish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- Meta PlatformsBullish ·
- MicrosoftBullish ·
- NVIDIABearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscalers can curb AI spending, by choice or because they cannot raise capital at decent prices.
Danny says he and his team have argued that hyperscalers can turn off the spigot on AI spending. They could do this voluntarily or be forced by an inability to raise capital at acceptable prices. He notes that Oracle's investor day guidance on capex and free cash flow was well received, which he sees as taking some stress out of AI funding needs. He raises the question of what reduced spending means for suppliers such as Nvidia, which fell on the news.
“We have been saying that the hyperscalers have the ability to turn off the spigot, whether willingly or by other forces such as their inability to raise capital [at] decent prices.”at 1:31
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
AI capex resembles the dot-com build-out; secular trades turn cyclical through a healthy weeding-out.
Danny compares the current AI trade to the dot-com bubble, when fiber was wrapped around the earth 100 times and nobody checked the economics. He says the current phase is similar, though he is not equating Lucent and Nortel with the hyperscalers or Nvidia. Both the dot-com and GFC periods occurred during rate-hike cycles, so capital was getting more expensive. He argues that secular growth trades eventually become cyclical, and that this produces a healthy weeding-out process. He also questions how many data centers will be funded, chip prices, and the depreciation life of the equipment.
“But I'll just note that secular trades eventually become cyclical, and it's a healthy weeding out process.”at 12:22
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
PE has drawn the risk outside banks where it cannot be monitored, and needs exits to return capital.
Danny says private equity firms have attracted the flows since the banks have been constrained by regulation. As a result, a lot of the risk now sits outside the banking system and cannot be monitored. He notes that PE firms need realizations to generate large returns of capital, and that banks need those exits, through IPOs and M&A, to earn fees. He says this makes the system interconnected, with a similar dynamic to how banks' warehouse lines once fed mortgage products before the GFC.
“But thank goodness that they've been unable to trip on themselves right now. And fortunately or unfortunately, the PE firms got the flows. And so we're sitting again in a situation where a lot of the risk is outside of the banking system instead of inside the banking system, but it can't be monitored.”at 13:05
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
A $500bn data-center securitization mixes dot-com and GFC dynamics; balance sheets now matter.
Danny points to a roughly $500bn securitization venture that would securitize data centers and GPUs, involving Blackstone, BlackRock, Nvidia, Goldman, Brookfield and others. He sees it as a combination of dot-com excess and GFC-style leverage: the risk is being packaged and moved, and it is hard to monitor. He notes that Larry Fink was excited about product innovation like mortgage-backed securities, which unsettles him. He says no one is arguing this is not a great secular trade, but balance sheets are starting to matter, which he views as healthy.
“this $500,000,000,000 securitization venture of securitizing data centers, GPUs, whatever it might be between Blackstone, BlackRock, NVIDIA, you know, Goldman, Brookfield”at 13:34
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Bank credit risk is not systemic, but fee income could be, and tough 2027 comps loom.
Danny says banks have shifted from being valued on book value to being valued on earnings per share, which requires growth. That makes them face tough comparisons in 2027, especially if there is any slowdown. He sees pockets of credit stress here and there but nothing systemic. He notes banks can change risk weights on categories such as software if credit underperforms, creating a chain reaction. He thinks fee revenue could be systemically affected, but credit risk is not.
“I think fees could be systemic, but credit is not systemic is the way I would kinda put it.”at 18:10
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
AnthropicUncertain
Anthropic's IPO economics look shaky, but Wall Street will push the deal through regardless.
Danny says the math behind Anthropic's IPO needs scrutiny. Long-term build-out plans mean negative free cash flow for a period, even though there are moments of positive FCF. Stock-based comp of about $2bn was excluded from the metrics, and costs are being funded through converts and equity. A Wall Street Journal piece argued that Alphabet and Amazon should not get markup benefit on Anthropic without penalty. He notes the very high private valuations, and calls the circular dependence among participants a big issue. He still expects the IPO to get done because everyone needs it, so the economics come later, and he sees the lockups as not restrictive.
“Worry about the economics later. Get this thing public first.”at 22:45
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Power and grid constraints, not data center approvals, are the bigger AI bottleneck; build pauses may help.
Danny argues the bigger issue for AI is not data center approvals. Approvals are unlikely in places like Central Park, but the real constraint is the power and grid associated with the data centers. He thinks the current halting of some build-outs is not negative, and may benefit companies by giving them time to work out overall demand. He expects power to remain an issue, and says local races for governors and mayors could make it a problem. Approvals could also be used as an excuse for missed projects.
“the bigger issue here for AI isn't data center approvals at the moment... It's the power and the grid associated with it. I actually think that this is not a negative thing right now, kind of the halting of some of these data center build outs.”at 23:55
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Expects more market volatility after midterms, with shutdown odds rising to 37% under a Democratic sweep.
Danny cites prediction-market odds of a government shutdown rising to 37% from about 20% by December 12. He says that if Democrats win both chambers of Congress, there is a very good chance of such a shutdown. He does not make a call on portfolios, but he thinks markets are in for more volatility than usual. He says the lame-duck session that follows the midterms is underappreciated, and that the period is being overlooked.
“odds of government shutdown are now 37% from basically 20 on the December 12. ... I think we're in for a little bit of volatility, more volatility than we've had just in general in the markets.”at 26:13
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Housing and consumer discretionary names are rented on the long side; tradeable 10-15% bounce, then exit.
Danny argues housing may be left for dead, with names like Home Depot, and that falling rates could quickly pull money back in. He argues that many consumer discretionary and housing names are only rented on the long side, since no one really believes in them long term. He sees them as a trade that could make 10 to 15 percent before getting out, rather than a long-term hold.
“some of those consumer discretionary consumer names and housing names are just rented on the long side that no one actually believes in the long term. I could trade that, make 10, 15%, and get out.”at 36:35
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Energy stocks remain attractive: under-owned sector with cleaned-up balance sheets, though higher oil brings demand destruction.
Danny says the firm has been in energy for years. Energy was a small share of the S&P 500 and was ignored after ESG pressure, while the sector cleaned up its balance sheets, so the stocks looked cheap with oil at $65. He is unsure how long oil stays at around $100 and notes that higher oil is itself the cure for higher oil through demand destruction. He still sees bottom-up value in energy beyond the large caps like Chevron and Exxon, which active managers may be overlooking.
“We've been in energy for years, mainly post ESG. No one was paying attention to the sector. They cleaned up their act in terms of the balance sheet. Nobody owned them.”at 37:10
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
US will trip the debt ceiling in the first six weeks of 2027.
Danny says that with the country's deficit issues and global sovereign debt pressure, the US will hit the debt ceiling again early in 2027, when the calendar turns. He says debt is approaching the limit and that the market is not looking ahead to 2027 and 2028.
“We're gonna turn the calendar. We're gonna trip the debt ceiling, by the way, in the first six weeks of 2027.”at 38:39
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Gold is still early and will rise sharply on any Fed rate cut, as the firm has held it since under $1,000.
Danny says the firm has been on the gold trade since it was under $1,000, and that gold is held more by central bank balance sheets than US Treasuries. He thinks worries about fiat currencies and the dollar's decline from the low 70s to the mid-to-high 50s, combined with sovereign debt and deficit issues, keep gold in demand. He expects a slowdown, a Fed pause or even a cut would push gold up sharply. He prefers gold to being short the S&P 500 and says it yields nothing but is a good hedge.
“The minute you get a whiff of a Fed rate cut, gold is going up a lot.”at 39:11
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
A market drop would hurt high-end consumer spending and risk stagflation.
Danny says stock market wealth now exceeds home equity, unlike in 2006, and the stock market is a large factor in the economy. Earnings are concentrated in a few S&P companies, which he links to a K-shaped economy and a K-shaped market. He argues the underappreciated left tail is a broad market decline, from oversupply, valuation or other causes, which would hit high-end consumer spending. That slowdown would combine with persistent inflation into stagflation, and would reduce tax receipts.
“And I think if the market does drop, I'm not saying it's going to, but if it did, [I] think the knock on effects from the high end consumer would be notable.”at 43:49
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
The tax bill pulled spending forward; pay-fors and health costs will hit from 2027.
Danny says the tax bill pulled forward a lot of activity and benefits into the current period. He argues that when the calendar flips to 2027, health care costs and other obligations come due, and the pay-fors arrive later. He says the market has enjoyed these pull-forwards and suggests they are not priced in for 2027-28.
“all the pull forwards came now. And then when we flip the calendar in 2027, health care costs, all those other things... The pay fors are coming later.”at 44:18
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
The Fed likely hikes once more by December, then stops; not three or four hikes.
Danny says the Street is pricing about a 75 to 80 percent chance of a hike at the last meeting in December, and that the Fed will not raise tomorrow. He does not see the Fed raising three to four times in the next year. He expects at most one more raise, and possibly one and done at the end of the year. He says the long-term yields are already tightening credit conditions for Warsh, and he expects Warsh to stick with the view that AI is deflationary. He also points to Treasury bill issuance as a constraint on the Fed, and says he is dovish overall.
“We probably are gonna get one more raise here and then not gonna try to predict oil, whatever.”at 49:33
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Heavy short-dated Treasury maturities will keep short-term rates elevated despite Fed hikes.
Danny argues that hiking would logically reduce 10-year yields. However, Treasury is issuing short-dated bonds, and the share of maturing bonds is higher than ever, which means a lot of short-term refinancing. He says this creates a lot of risk that short-term rates stay higher, which is why he likes gold and thinks the Fed may be one and done.
“But when you start to issue bonds, treasury on the shorter end of the curve like we have, the amount of bonds coming up from maturity now more than ever on a percentage basis creates a lot of risk for short term rates to be higher.”at 49:57
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Dollar's share of global reserves has fallen sharply, and US global standing as protector is being degraded.
He says the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and the US role as the world's protector are being degraded. He cites the dollar's reserve share falling from about 71-72% over the last twenty years to 57%, with a further move toward 52% possible, which he calls a massive move. He ties this to the US aligning with dictatorships and strains on NATO and Ukraine. He hedges that he is not saying the dollar will lose reserve status.
“It's gone from 71, 72% in the last twenty years to 57. You go from 57 to 52 or some... That's a massive move.”at 39:21
On The Tape with Danny Moses: James Aitken: It Pays To Shave With Occam's Razor ·
Treasury's short-to-long bond swap is too small to matter; rates are in a secular higher regime.
Danny argues that Treasury's attempt to push down long-term yields by issuing short-term bonds to buy long-term bonds is symbolic. The Treasury market is too big for such a move to change the curve, and he says the market already knows the position. He also says the Fed cannot control the long end either: raising short rates is the only tool that would work against inflation, and buying about $20B of tenure does nothing. He sees the rate cycle as more secular than cyclical, since rates were suppressed for so long and the debt load has grown sharply.
“Nobody's bigger than the market itself. Doesn't matter if it's the Fed trying to control the short end or if Treasury trying to control the long end. It's too big of a market.”at 6:26
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
Inflation target has drifted from 2% to 3%, and cost of living is outpacing wages.
Danny says the goalposts have moved from a 2% inflation target to 3%, as long as inflation is heading toward 2%. He says the cost of living is rising faster than wages. He expects that if oil eases with peace in the Middle East, inflation will come down, but he treats the drift in the target as a credibility problem.
“we've moved the goalposts from that 2% number to the three, as long as it's going towards two, we're okay. But the cost of living is going up faster than wages.”at 7:26
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
Buying a home as a wealth-building path is over; post-COVID generations think about it differently.
Danny argues there has been a demographic shift since COVID. Younger people, including his own kids' generation, no longer view buying a home the way earlier generations did. He says the days of buying a house as a reliable financial move are completely over. He also notes that the top of the K-shaped economy keeps housing active (buyers paying cash), while the lower part is not transacting.
“I think there's a demographic shift that has occurred since COVID. This generation, our kids age, whether they buy a home or not, they don't think of it like we used to.”at 9:45
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
Stock-market wealth now exceeds home equity, so a stock selloff is a bigger economic risk than housing.
Danny says there is more household wealth in the stock market than in homes. He concludes that a stock market decline poses more risk to the economy than a housing downturn. He describes a K-shaped economy: the high end, which is buying housing with cash, keeps spending going, while the bottom is not transacting.
“There's actually more wealth. There's more household wealth in the stock market right now than there is in people's homes.”at 11:00
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
NVIDIABearish
Nvidia's high gross margins will erode as competition and commoditization arrive.
Danny is surprised that Nvidia's gross margin has stayed in the high 70s, when he expected competition by now. He says the market questions whether AI chips are becoming a commodity, and that they will be, because anyone can build a fab and make these chips. Competition will come, though he says he doesn't know when. He points to Micron trading at 8-9x earnings as a sign of how the market views memory chip commoditization.
“Nvidia's gross margin staying up in the high seventies. If you told me two years ago that we would still be in the high seventies, I'm like, there's no chance. ... Some point competition comes.”at 12:09
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
AI capex looks like the 1999 fiber bubble; the spending math may not work.
Danny compares today's AI capex boom to the late-1990s fiber craze, when the internet's growth was real but the spending outran demand. He says that if you do the math on capex, fiber laid, leases and equipment financing, the economics fail. The companies were providing loans to buy their own equipment, and the fiber could have wrapped the globe ten times. He says the internet was real and produced winners and losers, so AI may also be real, but the math on AI capex needs to be checked.
“The math didn't work. You could have wrapped that fiber around the globe 10 times. So stop and do the math back to where all this CapEx is on AI.”at 14:56
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
MicrosoftBullish
Microsoft is a buy on pullbacks given its strong business and ability to cut AI capex.
Danny likes Microsoft on pullbacks because of its incredible business. Hyperscaler capex has in some cases turned down, and the company can turn off its capex spending whenever it chooses, since its cash flow is strong. He sees it as far more secure than AI infrastructure names that depend on external financing.
“I love Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft on pullbacks. Why? Because they have an incredible business.”at 15:22
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
Amazon.comBullish
Amazon is a buy on pullbacks given its strong business and ability to cut AI capex.
Danny likes Amazon on pullbacks because of its incredible business. Hyperscaler capex has in some cases turned down, and the company can turn off its capex spending whenever it chooses, since its cash flow is strong. He sees it as far more secure than AI infrastructure names that depend on external financing.
“I love Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft on pullbacks. Why? Because they have an incredible business.”at 15:22
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
AlphabetBullish
Alphabet is a buy on pullbacks given its strong business and ability to cut AI capex.
Danny likes Alphabet on pullbacks because of its incredible business. Hyperscaler capex has fallen in some cases, and the companies can turn off the capex spending whenever they want, since they have enough cash flow. He sees them as much more secure than AI infrastructure names that depend on external financing.
“I love Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft on pullbacks. Why? Because they have an incredible business.”at 15:22
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Meta is a buy on pullbacks given its strong business and ability to cut AI capex.
Danny likes Meta on pullbacks because of its incredible business. Hyperscaler capex has in some cases turned down, and the company can turn off its capex spending whenever it chooses, since its cash flow is strong. He sees it as far more secure than AI infrastructure names that depend on external financing.
“I love Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft on pullbacks. Why? Because they have an incredible business.”at 15:22
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
OpenAIUncertain
OpenAI must show it can make a profit; its survival is uncertain.
Danny says he has no idea whether OpenAI will make it. He wants to see the math on both enterprise and consumer demand, along with token pricing and the debt that has been raised. He says that at some point OpenAI needs to show it can make a profit, and he has not seen the math that proves it.
“I have no idea if OpenAI is gonna make it or not. ... At some point you're gonna need to show that you can make money, a profit.”at 15:49
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic is burning cash heavily and must show it can turn a profit.
Danny says Anthropic is burning cash like crazy and that at some point it has to show it can make money. He wants to see the math on demand from enterprises and consumers, and on how pricing and the debt build up over time. He is skeptical of the economics of the leading AI labs.
“I know we've had people in the show talk about it, anthropic, these guys are burning cash like crazy. At some point you're gonna need to show that you can make money, a profit.”at 15:51
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave is a WeWork-like AI trade with a debt and lease-term mismatch; he would not own it.
Danny calls CoreWeave the WeWork of the AI trade. It buys long-term assets like ships and has big clients, but it has moved into renting capacity on shorter terms. That creates a potential mismatch on its balance sheet, with about $51B of debt including leases. He says he is not sure about the path to profitability and has not done enough analysis. Either way, it is not a stock he wants to own to express his AI view. He flags it as one of the names that is not as financially sound as others.
“It's really like a WeWork of kind of the trade. Yes, they're buying ships.”at 16:41
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
11 older views from Danny Moses are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- On The Tape with Danny Moses · 3 episodes
- The Real Eisman Playbook · 1 episode
Ask your AI what Danny Moses thinks
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