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What podcasters are saying about US housing
Summary
In the past 30 days, 47 speakers on 26 finance podcasts discussed US housing in 116 views. Chorus has followed US housing since September 29, 2026: 119 views from 48 speakers on 26 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Nick Gerli · 21
- Daryl Fairweather · 13
- Ivy Zelman · 10
- Chris Whalen · 10
- Steve Eisman · 4
- Ben Carlson · 4
- Michael Batnick · 3
- Ron Butler · 3
- James Egan · 3
- Danny Moses · 2
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Real-time rents are flat and falling, so housing inflation is far lower than CPI shows.
Hatfield says the Fed controls housing through rates. Real-time rents are at zero growth and dropping, yet CPI shelter lags by roughly two years because of the six-month delay and renewal method. Using real-time rents gives a CPI of about 1.2%.
“Housing is... Rents are zero and dropping.”at 47:16
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Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
US housing is in a recession-like slump, with unaffordable mortgages and falling sales.
Alex argues that since 2020-2022 mortgages have become unaffordable, new and existing home sales have plummeted, and home prices have barely moved. He calls this a housing market recession. Because home equity is no longer a main wealth channel, younger savers are putting money into stocks instead, which links housing weakness to the equity flows he describes.
“Really, '20 since '22, mortgages have been completely unaffordable. ... new homes and existing home sales have plummeted. The housing market's basically been dead... It's a housing market recession.”at 24:12
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Residential construction activity, not home prices, is the key recession indicator to watch.
Basmajian says home prices are not what matters for business cycles and recessions. Residential construction activity is what ties to jobs and carries the multiplier effect. It is weak now, but not weak enough to offset the strength in nonresidential construction and manufacturing. He says the relationship across those sectors is the main thing he watches, and that the economy still shows positive signs for now.
“it's not home prices you should be watching. It's the actual residential construction activity. That's what's tied to jobs. That's what has the multiplier effect. It's weak right now, but it's not weak enough to offset the strength we're seeing in nonresidential construction and manufacturing.”at 43:22
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Housing has weakened further since rates spiked; her September builder survey was among the weakest on KPIs.
Since mortgage rates spiked above 7%, housing has taken another leg down. Her September survey of homebuilders showed among the weakest rate-of-change on KPIs, and the weakness has continued into October. It has spread beyond entry-level buyers to luxury and second-time move-up markets, which had previously been healthy but are now also feeling pressure from consumer confidence hit by geopolitical events.
“we really have seen since rates spiked another leg down. So our September survey for the homebuilders was probably amongst, if not the weakest, from a rate of change on KPIs”at 2:10
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Mortgage rate buydowns, used on about 80% of new homes, now cost too much to sustain builder margins.
Public builders, about 53% of new home sales, have offset high rates with mortgage rate buydowns, and roughly 80% of new homes sold use one. Buydowns are expensive: buying down 250 basis points costs nearly 900 basis points of gross margin. Builders previously offered up to 12% incentives to sell at a 4.99% rate. Buying down to a 5.5% rate is now too costly for most, which keeps entry-level buyers from qualifying.
“So buydowns are expensive, though. So if you want to buy a rate down two fifty basis points, that's going to be nearly 900 basis point negative impact to gross margin.”at 4:28
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Deaths will exceed births by 2030, so housing demand fades and the US is not truly short of housing.
Birth rates are below replacement and the population is shrinking, while deaths are rising in absolute terms. Immigration has been halted, which slows incremental household formation. Together these reduce future housing need. Zelman's view is that the US is not in a shortage and is in a fairly balanced market at roughly 1.4 million starts. By 2030 deaths will exceed births, and the industry is not prepared for the lower need for supply that follows.
“More people in this country will die than are born, and we will start to see a lot less need for housing supply as we enter the new decade.”at 8:04
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Land sellers and land bankers must capitulate on prices as builders cut starts; land prices have been sticky.
Land prices have been sticky, decelerating but not falling year over year, and the latest land development survey shows only a modest tick lower in finished lot prices. Builders are pulling back: the September survey showed single-family starts down 7% year over year. With demand weakening, land sellers will have to cut prices, though their margins are thin because roughly half their costs are hard costs and diesel prices have doubled. She expects collaboration, since idle land is costly in downturns.
“But I think the land sellers, land bankers are going to have to capitulate, given the weakness that they're seeing on the end demand from their builders that are now going to pull back on starts.”at 8:42
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Renter households are growing faster than owners fall, and oversupplied Sunbelt rents are now affordable.
Renter households are growing faster than owner households are shrinking, and incremental renter households are accelerating. Supply built up across the Southwest and Southeast has pushed rents down, so rent-to-income has become very affordable. This is the one area she sees green shoots across an ecosystem that is otherwise hurting.
“the renter households are growing faster than owner households are going down, and incremental renter households are accelerating.”at 12:01
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Young adults living at home (now about 22%) cut household formation, and the share will not fall below 20% again.
The share of 20-39 year olds living at home rose from about 15% in the 1980s and 1990s to about 22% now. Each 100 basis point increase in that share removes about half a million households from formation. The share fell toward 20% during COVID but reversed when rates rose. Zelman does not expect it to go below 20% again, because affordability and changed mindsets both keep young adults at home and delay homeownership.
“for every 100 basis point increase in young adults living at home, that takes away half a million households.”at 13:48
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Affordability improves only if home prices fall, rates fall or incomes rise, and the recovery will be a slow grind.
Affordability can improve only through three variables: home prices falling, mortgage rates falling, or incomes accelerating. Wage growth is currently outpacing national home price growth, which helps, though this does not hold in every local market. Land price resets would also lower builder costs but would be slow. Zelman expects a very slow grind. Many households have not saved enough to buy, which adds to the affordability challenge.
“So it really could be a slow grind because we are seeing wage growth exceeding currently home prices on a national basis.”at 17:55
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Labor and material costs are rising for builders as ICE raids hit job sites, and they cannot pass costs on.
Since late summer builders have been hearing more reports of ICE raids and job sites being disrupted. Labor had been plentiful because the industry was so weak, but that is changing. Input costs, including materials and transportation, have also been rising, and builders have not been able to pass them along. Zelman says labor and material costs are both now going the wrong way for builders.
“And labor, with the industry being so weak, was pretty plentiful. So starting late summer, we started hearing noise of more ICE raids and more job sites being impacted.”at 19:28
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Public builders hold a 500-1,000bp cost-of-capital edge over private builders, driving consolidation.
Scale matters in this downturn. Public builders' cost of capital can be 500 to 1,000 basis points lower than private builders', and they also gain purchasing synergies and stronger trade relationships. Private builders have been squeezed by rivals with deeper balance sheets that buy down rates aggressively, so there has been consolidation. Japanese companies and Berkshire Hathaway together hold about 12% of new home share and are likely to integrate their acquisitions. Other public builders may not buy until real distress appears.
“I mean, we've written a lot about scale and the importance of it. There's no question there's significant advantages just starting with the cost of capital of public versus private can be anywhere from 500 to a thousand basis points”at 21:17
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
Mortgage market is solid thanks to Dodd-Frank qualified-mortgage rules, so housing is not heading for a GFC.
Despite pressure, the mortgage market is in a very solid position, because Dodd-Frank established guardrails in 2014, including the qualified mortgage requirement. Builders have also reduced risk by going land-light and reducing debt and leverage. Zelman sees no GFC-style crisis from housing. She notes that broader risks, such as $40 trillion of federal debt and the long end of the curve, sit outside the builders' control.
“The mortgage market, despite it being under pressure, is in very solid position since Dodd Frank put in what I call the guardrails in 2014”at 23:07
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Danny Moses · Moses Ventures
Housing and consumer discretionary names are rented on the long side; tradeable 10-15% bounce, then exit.
Danny argues housing may be left for dead, with names like Home Depot, and that falling rates could quickly pull money back in. He argues that many consumer discretionary and housing names are only rented on the long side, since no one really believes in them long term. He sees them as a trade that could make 10 to 15 percent before getting out, rather than a long-term hold.
“some of those consumer discretionary consumer names and housing names are just rented on the long side that no one actually believes in the long term. I could trade that, make 10, 15%, and get out.”at 36:35
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Axel Merk · Merk Investments
US housing is frozen by high rates and lock-in; homes as real assets should hold value.
Merk says the housing market is frozen for now because interest rates are reasonably high and people aren't moving jobs. Cost of living keeps people from relocating, and wealthy owners locked into very low rates face much higher costs if they move, including property taxes and mortgage costs. He doesn't expect rates to fall, and he sees the market going through a normalization after years of low rates pulled transactions forward. He says he doesn't know how long that lasts. Because homes are real assets, prices should probably be okay, everything else equal.
“for the time being we have a frozen housing market, right? Because interest rates are reasonably high, people are not moving jobs actively. ... Homes are real assets and everything else equal, they should probably be okay.”at 56:28
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Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management
US housing demand is slumping sharply as rates rise, with first-time buyers pulling back most.
Batnick reads Pulte's earnings commentary. Its CEO described a notable slowdown in home-buying demand in the third quarter as interest rates surged higher. Traffic to its communities fell 14% year over year and 11% sequentially. Batnick says most of the missing traffic came from first-time buyers who lack a down payment from selling a previous home, and calls the situation brutal.
“we experienced a notable slowdown in home buying demand as we moved through the third quarter, and interest rates surged higher. They said traffic to our communities was down 14% from the prior year.”at 44:01
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Diana Olick · CNBC
The housing lock-in is fading, and frozen home sales are stalling remodeling spending.
Olick says the lock-in effect that kept renovation going is petering out because of the broader economy and weak spending appetite. Roughly half of homeowners still have mortgage rates under 4%, so moving to a smaller home means a much higher rate, which keeps owners in place. With the 30-year fixed rate at 7.33%, owners must choose between staying, upgrading or waiting for better conditions. Home sales are at a 25-year low, and remodeling spending is expected to grow only about 1.5% year over year.
“it's petering out a little bit just because of the broader economy. People don't wanna really spend money on anything right now.”at 27:10
CNBC Closing Bell: Markets Brace for the Fed as Earnings Roll In 10/27/26 ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Higher mortgage rates freeze sellers out, keeping US home prices elevated despite fewer transactions.
Most homeowners locked in cheap pandemic-era fixed mortgages. When rates rise, they don't sell, so buyers pull back and supply shrinks at the same time. Transactions fall but prices stay high despite a continued housing shortage. This is counterintuitive, because normally higher rates push prices down to meet buyers.
“So what we're seeing is that when mortgage rates go up, we actually see more sellers back off of the market, and that allows prices to remain high because there's a pullback in demand and supply at the exact same time.”at 5:00
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Builders are pulling back from completing projects as high rates squeeze financing and buyer demand.
Homebuilder sentiment is low. High rates hit builders twice: they pay more to borrow for projects, and fewer buyers can afford finished homes. Builders still have leftover pandemic inventory to sell. They are buying land but not finishing projects, and they offer buydowns and incentives to close deals. She expects little new construction in this market.
“Homebuilder sentiment is also quite low right now. Builders are up against a lot. They're up against high interest rates, which hit them two ways. ... It hits them because they have to borrow for their projects,”at 6:07
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
US home prices won't fall sharply; a slow correction could take years to unwind.
Fixed-rate mortgages cannot be undone and let homeowners keep low payments, so they have no reason to sell. Lenders now use forbearance, adding missed payments to the end of the loan instead of foreclosing, so distressed sales that would force price cuts are rare. Nominal prices are flat, but they are rising more slowly than inflation, so real prices fall gradually. Making fixed mortgages portable is not feasible. The market stays stalled for years unless demand returns through higher wages or lower mortgage rates, and she is not banking on lower rates.
“So instead, what we have now is a very slow moving correction where prices aren't going down nominally, but they are going up slower than inflation and will probably take years to unwind this,”at 10:44
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Adjustable-rate mortgages are rising as buyers seek lower rates; existing pandemic-era fixed loans stay put.
ARM share is increasing somewhat because buyers facing high rates are choosing adjustable products to get lower starting rates and accept the risk. This does nothing for the existing pandemic-era fixed mortgages, which owners will keep until paid off because of their 3% rates.
“They're increasing a bit, and that's because as mortgage rates have increased, buyers are trying to find ways to lower their rates, and opting for an adjustable rate is one way to do that.”at 13:29
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
AI boom is keeping US mortgage rates high by drawing investor money away from mortgages.
Expected AI-driven economic growth gives investors higher-return options such as corporate bonds and data centers. They move money out of the safe US mortgage market. With less capital available for mortgages, rates stay higher. She says AI did not cause the 2022-2023 rate rises, but she argues it explains why rates have stayed high since.
“I think the AI boom is responsible for why mortgage rates are as high as they are. ... You can buy corporate bonds, you can invest in data centers, and that means that investors, instead of putting their money into The US mortgage market... they're chasing these higher returns.”at 15:17
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
AI-wealth gains are driving San Francisco home prices and the luxury housing market nationally.
People who got rich from working at or investing in AI companies are putting that wealth into housing. That has pushed San Francisco to some of the fastest price growth in the country. The top 5% of the luxury market is also doing well nationwide, because wealthy stock-market investors who profited from AI do not feel the fixed-rate mortgage squeeze. Their demand and supply are more liquid, so that segment moves more healthily than the rest of the market.
“we have seen a boom in San Francisco where people who have gotten wealthy because they've worked for these AI companies or they've invested in these AI companies are turning around and putting that wealth directly into the housing market, and that has accelerated price growth.”at 16:06
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Midwest and affordable Northeast housing markets remain strong because prices stayed within middle-class reach.
These cities did not appreciate much during the pandemic, so they stayed affordable on local middle-class incomes even after rates rose. They were places people left in the early 2000s, but they now offer solid job markets, such as health tech in Cincinnati and Google offices in Chicago. Locals can stay near family. Rising costs in superstar cities also make these markets more attractive when people compare earnings with living costs.
“We're seeing the same thing happening in Midwestern cities like Chicago and Milwaukee. These are places that didn't appreciate incredibly during the pandemic. They remained affordable.”at 21:16
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Foreclosures have risen modestly but remain near historic lows as lenders restructure loans.
Foreclosures are up somewhat since the pandemic but remain low. Most borrowers have fixed-rate loans, so payments have not risen. Many have large equity cushions from pandemic price gains, giving room to restructure. Banks now prefer to keep homeowners in their homes, so they work with borrowers who fall behind. Economic strain from inflation and job losses has pushed some foreclosures up, but the data still show these events as rare.
“Foreclosures have increased somewhat since the pandemic, but still remain at historical lows because of the way that foreclosure has changed since the foreclosure crisis.”at 23:59
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Sunbelt markets like Texas and Florida face price corrections after the pandemic building boom added supply.
Places that built many homes during the pandemic saw the fastest price corrections. The new supply sat unsold when rates rose, so prices fell slowly. Builders are also willing to negotiate. Higher insurance costs, property taxes, HOA fees and climate risk have eaten into buyers' budgets, adding to the downward pressure on Texas and Florida prices.
“because supply increased to meet demand and with increasing supply you get lower prices.”at 26:01
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
US rents are flat to slightly down and rising slower than inflation, keeping buyers unpressured.
Rental growth is slow. ApartmentList shows rents down slightly. The Census shelter index, which the government uses, shows rents rising more slowly than inflation. Rents have stayed affordable for several years, so people do not feel pressure to buy to avoid rent increases. This is one reason buying demand is weak.
“No. Rental growth is slow. ... I think apartment list shows that rents are down slightly. The shelter index, which is what the census goes off of, rents are going up slower than inflation.”at 29:14
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Affordability only returns if incomes outpace home prices over the next five years.
Normal affordability means a median-priced home costs about 30% of median income, as in 2018. That level is far off. Two things could restore it: lower mortgage rates, which she cannot predict, or incomes rising faster than home prices over five years as the economy grows. She thinks income growth is realistic, though it is not yet reaching regular people.
“There are two things that will get us there. One is a decline in mortgage rates, which you can't predict or bank on, the other is a rise in incomes, which I think is realistic, that incomes rise faster than home prices over the next five years as the economy grows.”at 30:47
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Condo prices are falling and units sit unsold, letting buyers negotiate below asking prices.
Condos are not selling well, so buyers can get a deal, including buying below asking price. Buyers paying all cash get the best deal. Buyers who put down around 5% and take on large interest costs probably should not buy. Renting and reassessing in a year may make more sense while condo prices keep falling.
“Prices are coming down for condos right now, so it might make sense to rent and then reevaluate a year from now when prices have come down to a place that makes more sense for you.”at 33:20
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Move-in-ready luxury homes are selling while fixer-uppers and exurban homes struggle.
Fixer-uppers are hard to sell in any market, and more so now, because buyers must borrow more for repairs and flippers face expensive short-term loans at high rates. Move-in-ready, larger homes in desirable urban neighborhoods sell more easily, because they appeal to wealthier buyers who feel secure given stock-market gains. Exurban homes that require long car commutes are also harder to sell.
“homes that are selling easier are actually those more luxury homes that don't need any work, that are in desirable neighborhoods that are larger because that is appealing to that wealthier clientele.”at 34:58
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
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