Speaker · Updated
Ben Carlson: latest market views
Ritholtz Wealth Management
Summary
Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management, author of books including 'A Wealth of Common Sense' and 'Everything You Need to Know About Investing', and co-host of the Animal Spirits podcast and author of the A Wealth of Common Sense blog.
Chorus has 70 views from Ben Carlson across 6 episodes on Animal Spirits since September 30, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Anthropic; bearish on SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, Opendoor Technologies, Paramount Skydance and Kalshi.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBullish ·
- SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETFBearish ·
- Opendoor TechnologiesBearish ·
- Paramount SkydanceBearish ·
- KalshiBearish ·
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFBearish ·
What they talk about most
- US stock market outlook · 8
- US Treasuries & yields · 6
- AI bubble & tech valuations · 5
- AI infrastructure & data centers · 4
- US housing · 4
- US consumer · 4
- Wealth, inequality & billionaires · 3
- AI & jobs · 2
- AI: overall outlook · 2
- Netflix · 2
- Market sentiment, positioning & volatility · 2
- Media, music & entertainment · 2
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Median company's net margin doubled to 13%; the expected mean reversion has not happened.
Profit margins were long considered the most mean-reverting economic data point. Goldman's chart shows the median company's net margin rising from under 6% in the 1990s to about 13% today. Ben notes that margins did not jump much during the internet boom but rose slowly over time, and that competition has not pulled them back down.
“And this goes from less than 6% in the nineties to 13% today. The thing is you didn't really even get a huge jump in profit margins from the Internet.”at 4:26
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Market is far more levered to AI today than to the internet in 1999.
Responding to Michael's question, Ben says the answer is clearly yes. In the late 1990s the biggest companies included Citigroup, AIG and General Electric, not only tech names. Today the largest companies are almost all tech, so the market is much more concentrated in the AI-linked trade.
“Because if you look at what the biggest companies were in the late nineteen nineties, it wasn't all tech companies. ... The biggest companies are all these tech companies.”at 6:01
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
AI will be revolutionary, but unclear whether a bust comes before the payoff.
Ben says he is not arguing AI will be fake; he expects it to be revolutionary. His open question is whether an AI bust happens first. He finds the arguments for a bust and the arguments for a breakthrough without a bust both compelling, so he is torn between them.
“I'm not saying AI is gonna be fake. I'm saying it's gonna be revolutionary. It's just, are we going to have a bust before we get there?”at 8:36
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
If an AI bust happens, it likely means a short, minor recession, not a financial crisis.
Ben reviews a TS Lombard bust scenario built on capex recycling, vendor financing, off-balance-sheet leverage, circular financing and customer concentration. That scenario ends with a minor recession rather than a financial crisis. Ben says this is his baseline if a bust happens: a short, shallow recession, after which the market recovers and AI remains a big theme.
“To me, if we did get a bust, that would probably be my baseline as well. Like this isn't gonna be some nasty financial crisis. We get a very short recession.”at 12:31
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic is a real company with enough cash to survive; going-bust bets are unlikely to win.
After reading the S-1, Ben concludes Anthropic is a real company. Its margins are improving and it has large cash reserves. He argues that anyone betting on a collapse, such as a Polymarket bet that it goes under, will wait a long time. Even in a bad scenario the company has enough cash to last a long time.
“this is a real company, and if your polymarket bet is they're gonna go under, you're gonna be waiting a long time. They have enough cash to last them a long, long time even if things did go bad.”at 16:30
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Bonds are the best hedge against AI-stock risk; Treasuries rose while the Nasdaq 100 fell.
On a day the Nasdaq 100 fell about 3%, ten-year Treasuries rose about 1%. Ben argues this makes bonds the most direct hedge against AI-stock risk. He notes that bonds are now closely tied to the debt markets that finance AI spending, so they offer a near one-for-one hedge.
“If you're really nervous about AI, bonds are the best hedge you can get.”at 22:43
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Yields are attractive across the bond spectrum, not just core bonds, so investors have many choices.
Michael notes core bonds yield about 5.6% now versus 1.7% five years ago, and munis have a tax-equivalent yield of about 7.9% at the top marginal rate. Ben adds that yields are high across corporate, high-yield, emerging-market and municipal bonds, and that cash pays about 4%. He says investors now have far more attractive options than they did five years ago.
“Look at all the different yields too. Corporate bonds, high yield bonds, emerging market bonds, munis. It's across the whole bond spectrum. Even cash is still paying 4%.”at 24:08
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Surprised AI is not yet showing in labor data; the job market is still very strong.
Ben cites an unemployment rate of 4.2%, a level never seen in the 1980s and not seen in the 1990s until 1999. Job openings are higher than in all of the 2010s, and initial claims are near record lows. Given where AI models are and the predictions made about them, he finds it surprising that AI is not yet showing up in labor data.
“I am still really surprised by these labor market numbers. If you think about where the models are and the predictions people made, it is surprising that we're not seeing more of this.”at 30:47
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
AI productivity gains show up in company revenue per head but not yet in aggregate US productivity data.
Carlson says companies are seeing productivity gains because revenue is growing faster than headcount, so they are doing more with the same staff rather than more with less. He notes this is still not visible in general economic productivity statistics. He argues the economy adjusts like a slow-turning battleship, pointing to how quickly remote work spread, so AI's economy-wide effect will take longer than people expect. He thinks people keep pushing the timeline out and suspects the payoff may be a 2030s story.
“It's more with the same. You are seeing productivity boost because revenue is growing faster than headcount... it's really not showing up in the general economic productivity numbers yet.”at 33:58
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETFBearish
Homebuilder ETF XHB's roughly 22% drawdown looks too shallow given the housing slump.
Carlson says XHB is only about 22% off its highs, which he finds surprising given weak housing data. He cites Pulte's buyer traffic falling 14% year over year and 11% sequentially as rates surged higher. He wonders whether investors are still hoping rates will fall, and says he would have expected a drawdown near 50% to 60%. Batnick notes that the broader homebuilder ITB is down about 30%, which Carlson takes as a sign that builders have managed the downturn better than their stocks suggest.
“How is it possible that this thing is not in a greater drawdown than it is? Are people just still holding on hope that rates are gonna fall?”at 44:54
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
NetflixUncertain
Netflix isn't dead; it has a brand moat and time to turn around, but its content has lost ground to Apple.
Carlson disputes the view that YouTube has killed Netflix, saying he would not call it a dead company and that its brand recognition gives it a built-in moat with people still clicking there. He argues the problem is content. Apple has delivered several shows he has enjoyed in the past year, while Netflix has not had one show that would displace them for him. He says the company should act more like Apple and HBO and less like an algorithm, and that it still has time to turn things around. He points to East of Eden as a sign it can do higher-quality work.
“I would not say that this is a dead company... So I think they still have time to turn it around, but obviously they... lost their way.”at 55:01
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Wealth, inequality & billionaires
Boomers' wealth lead reflects compounding, not an unfair system, and younger savers will catch up later.
Carlson cites Fed data showing baby boomers and the silent generation hold 62% of US wealth. He draws on an Adam Nash thought experiment where everyone saves 10% of income, earns 8% and spends 4% of their portfolio in retirement from age 65. Under those assumptions, by 65 or older about 75% of wealth sits with people 65 and over, because of compounding. He argues this is not an unfair system: boomers have had longer for their capital to grow, and Gen Z and millennials who start investing earlier should also hold most of the wealth when they reach 65.
“There's no secret here to baby boomers holding all the wealth. They've had longer to let their capital grow... This is a compounding thing. This is not like an unfair system thing.”at 56:52
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security take 49% of the federal budget, mostly flowing to boomers.
Carlson cites JPMorgan data showing Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security make up 49% of the federal budget. He argues that baby boomers are getting most of that money. He uses this to respond to complaints from people who say they do not know where their tax dollars go, arguing that the taxes young people pay are largely funding boomer benefits.
“JPMorgan has this data. Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security make up 49% of the federal budget right now. The baby boomers are getting the majority of the money.”at 59:00
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Bond risk is overblown, since a jump from zero rates to 5% is a historical outlier.
Ben argues that the risk of bonds is sometimes overstated. He says it is hard to think of many historical cases where rates went from zero to 5% so quickly, so he sees that scenario as an outlier. He still thinks investors should diversify the fixed income portion of their portfolios beyond one asset class. He also cautions that options-based products are not a simple fixed income replacement, because they carry different risks.
“And I think sometimes that risk is a little overblown. Like, [I] don't know how many times in history we're going to have a situation where rates go to zero and then 5% so quickly.”at 20:20
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: Beyond Bonds in Retirement ·
Bond yields will peak on a bad inflation print, as stocks bottomed on bad news in October 2022.
He recalls that in October 2022, a bad inflation print sent stocks down premarket, and by the close they were up 2%, marking the market bottom on bad news. He expects the same thing in the bond market. A future bad inflation print will prompt people to say it's the top, and the bad news will be priced into bonds.
“That same thing is going to happen in the bond market... we're gonna get a bad inflation print... And the bad news is all going to be priced into the bond market.”at 5:36
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Risk appetite has structurally changed since the pandemic; investors will keep buying through crashes.
He argues the pandemic flipped a switch in people's risk appetite, which is now completely different from the last decade. He points to Maggie Maher's book Bull, where after the dot-com crash, when the Nasdaq fell 80%, investors kept buying until the GFC turned them off. He expects that even a crash this time would not stop people from buying all the way down.
“I don't think people in the market have totally reckoned with the fact that risk appetite in this decade is completely different than it was last decade.”at 13:23
AI will see several booms and mini busts, not one huge blow-off top and crash.
Using the railway bubble as a template, he notes there were several booms and busts in the 1800s rather than one. He expects AI to follow the same pattern, with repeated booms and mini busts instead of a single system-breaking crash. He adds that Michael's examples of DeepSeek and the summer's situational awareness episode already count as earlier mini-cycles.
“I think we have several booms and several busts as far as AI goes. And you're not gonna get that one huge blow off top or crash that brings the system down.”at 14:48
CoreWeaveNeutral
CoreWeave is a small firm; it is unlikely to be the AI canary, with about 15% odds.
He puts the odds that CoreWeave is an AI canary at about 15%. He expects hyperscalers to be unaffected by CoreWeave's problems, since CoreWeave's own debt is trading at higher yields. He sees CoreWeave as a drop in the ocean within AI. He also argues that the bond market being involved is good news, because investors pricing AI debt act as a check on speculative excess.
“So my kind of final answer on CoreWeave, 15% chance this could be a canary in the coal mine”at 19:11
Under-the-surface bloodbath claims are misleading; the median stock is up 8% this year.
Duality Research data show the cap-weighted index and the equal-weight index both up about 13% this year, and the average S&P stock up 15%. Emerging markets, EFA, mid caps and small caps are up roughly 9-15%, and the median stock is up 8%. He concludes that the market is fine this year, and that people calling it a bloodbath are revealing that they bought momentum stocks at the wrong time.
“I think the whole bloodbath under the surface thing, if you say that, you're telling on yourself for when you bought stocks.”at 20:41
Semiconductor stocks are down 25-50% from highs but still far up year to date, so 'bloodbath' is misleading.
Western Digital, Seagate, Micron and SanDisk are down 25-50% from their highs. Year to date, however, SanDisk is up almost 500%, Micron about 200%, Seagate about 140% and Western Digital has doubled. He argues that people calling it a bloodbath are anchoring to a peak, and that anyone who bought near the high is the one losing money.
“Western Digital is down 50% even after a bounce yesterday. Year to date, these companies are still up... SanDisk is still up almost 500%.”at 21:11
Tech is not a bubble: its forward P/E sits below its ten-year average after huge gains.
Using a Duality Research chart, he notes consumer discretionary, staples, health care and industrials all trade at higher forward P/Es than tech. Technology is below its own ten-year average after a massive ten-year gain, and the S&P sits right on its average. He concludes that people are not going crazy on valuations.
“consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health care, and industrials are all more expensive on a forward PE basis than technology.”at 25:27
Falling valuations come from strong earnings growth globally, so markets are not overheated.
A Schroders decomposition across the US, UK, Europe, Japan and EM shows that valuations fell this year because earnings growth was so strong, and this effect is even larger in EM. He notes that if valuations had held, the S&P would be up 30-35% this year. He calls this good news because people are not chasing the rally, though he adds that valuations were very reasonable before 2008, so the market can still fall a lot.
“And across the world now, everywhere, this is even bigger in the EM than it is here, valuations have fallen this year because earnings growth has been so strong.”at 27:04
Long-run equity returns may be lower, but lower fees keep net returns similar.
Jason Zweig argues that past stock returns were high because investors were compensated for fees and left-tail risks like the Great Depression, and that future returns may be lower as those risks shrink. Ben counters that fees are far lower today, so on a net basis investors will probably earn about the same even if gross returns are lower.
“fees are so much lower today that on a net basis, you're probably gonna get the same thing even if returns on a gross basis are lower than they were in the past.”at 30:53
Opendoor TechnologiesBearish
Opendoor's spike was a lottery-ticket run driven by one call, and it has since crashed back.
Eric Jackson's bullish call, which had worked with Carvana, drew followers into Opendoor. That pushed the stock from under a dollar to about $11. It has since crashed back to around $2. Ben uses it to argue that lottery-ticket stocks that fail get far too little attention, and that survivorship bias makes successful ones look more common.
“From under a dollar to 11, and now it's crashed all the way back down to 2.”at 32:53
Wealth, inequality & billionaires
AI wealth creation will force tech billionaires to make public giving gestures to avoid backlash.
He expects AI to create a great deal of wealth, which is already happening, so the rich will have to give back to avoid pitchforks. He cites Musk's share giveaway and Anthropic's planned public fund as early examples. He points to anti-data-center yard signs in rural Michigan as evidence of public hostility toward technology. Michael responds that these gestures are peeing into the ocean.
“the rich people in the world, because there's gonna be so much wealth created from AI, and there already has been, they're gonna have to do stuff like this to avoid the pitchforks.”at 33:20
Without the war, US inflation would be much lower; energy is driving the latest CPI increase.
Ben cites research showing energy is only 3.2% of the CPI basket but accounted for more than 30% of the increase in the latest reading. He argues energy prices are far higher because of the war, so inflation would be much lower without it. He rejects the idea that AI is the main reason for inflation.
“I still would make the contention that without the war, inflation would be a lot lower than it is... So energy makes up just 3.2% of the weight in the CPI, but it accounted for more than 30% of the increase in inflation in the latest reading.”at 35:04
Tech insiders can build the future but can't forecast it, as Anthropic staff's 2030 GDP guesses show.
Ben cites a chart of Anthropic employees' median forecast of about 17% nominal GDP growth in 2030, which he finds implausible. He argues that tech people understand technology but not the real world, so their predictions about how it will be used keep being wrong, as the bank-blocking example shows.
“They can help create the future. They cannot help predict the future because I think tech people don't understand the real world in a lot of ways.”at 40:24
Banks, not consumers, control whether AI agents can access accounts, and they can block them.
Ben cites a report that AI agents could move $500 billion out of low-yield bank deposits. He points to JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America restricting outside AI agents from accessing accounts. He argues banks hold the power, as the earlier fintech threat to JPMorgan and Goldman never materialised, and that tech forecasters ignore real-world barriers such as access being shut off.
“I think the banks still hold the power. ... They can do whatever they want.”at 41:21
AI infrastructure & data centers
Data center spending will pay off; tech CEOs wouldn't commit this much capital to something unprofitable.
Ben argues that tech CEOs can make mistakes but would not put this much money into something that will never pay off. He says it is reassuring that every major company is spending together, so it is not one firm's error. He dismisses Ed Zitron's crash-and-burn view as wrong, and he accepts that the buildout is crowding out other construction.
“I don't think that they would put this much money to something that's not going to eventually pay off.”at 43:50
Property tax cuts could backfire, shifting costs to renters and locking owners into homes.
Ben notes that more than two dozen states have moved to cut or repeal property taxes, with Georgia, Indiana and Wyoming already cutting bills. He argues the cuts shift the burden to renters, and that Ohio's governor blocked one because the sales-tax hike needed to fill the gap would be huge. He cites California's Prop 13, which locked owners into their homes and damaged the housing market, and says this could be a disaster.
“It was a disaster for the housing market because no one wanted to move because they locked in lower property taxes.”at 47:32
40 older views from Ben Carlson are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- Animal Spirits · 6 episodes
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