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What podcasters are saying about US stock market outlook
Summary
In the past 30 days, 145 speakers on 37 finance podcasts discussed US stock market outlook in 340 views. Chorus has followed US stock market outlook since September 22, 2026: 355 views from 149 speakers on 38 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Josh Brown · 21
- Michael Batnick · 16
- Lance Roberts · 15
- Mike Wilson · 9
- Ben Carlson · 8
- Paisley Nardini · 8
- Katie Stockton · 8
- Jeremy Zirin · 7
- Larry McDonald · 7
- George Noble · 7
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners
Market is rotating internally into defense and not into cash; the trade has been offense-defense rotation all year.
Terranova says the market has no defined trend, switching between bullish and bearish days. He still sees it rotating internally toward health care and energy as defensive sectors, away from momentum. He does not see a rotation toward cash yet, and calls the rotation between offense and defense the theme of 2026, with the midterms ahead.
“I still see the market rotating internally. ... It's not really rotating towards cash just yet.”at 22:50
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors
Defensive rotation into staples and financials is not a clean positive; large-cap premiums are unwinding.
Snipes sees the market rotating defensively into staples, energy and financials despite strong GDP data. He argues that defensive rotation is not a positive signal going forward. He expects the premium on large names that have run up to keep unwinding, so investors should look at multiples again and reshuffle their portfolios.
“if you're taking it from a defensive perspective, that's not necessarily a positive positive note going forward.”at 24:17
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners
The selloff looks like a consolidating pause, not a recession or bear market, given the strong economic data.
Lebenthal notes that economic data is strong, with GDP at 3.4%, yet cyclicals, consumer names and materials are struggling. He applies Occam's razor: the simplest explanation for that disconnect is a consolidating pause rather than a recession, bear market, or peak spending, and that is how he is positioning.
“The simplest explanation based on the way you just set it up with the economic data, Scott, is that this is a consolidated pause, and that's how I'm playing it.”at 25:28
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
S&P 500 could reach 9,300 next year on 28 earnings, and 10,000 if rates fall.
Hatfield's 8,000 target for this year is roughly reached, so he is updating. His next-year base case applies a 28x multiple to earnings, which he expects to rise about 13% to roughly 4,250 as companies reinvest at good returns on investment because of AI. That gives about 9,300, roughly 15% above current levels. A bull case of 10,000 needs the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and rates to fall about 50bp, which would also bring multiple expansion. He says the 8,000 target is also a sell signal, and he admits the outcome of the war and the midterms is unclear.
“So if you do that math, you get to 9,300, which is about 15% up from here.”at 4:42
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
The 2017 corporate tax cut permanently raised valuations, so historical market-to-GDP ratios are misleading.
Hatfield addresses why the stock market-to-GDP ratio is at all-time highs. The 2017 corporate tax cut, from 35% to 21% (a roughly 40% reduction), lifted after-tax return on invested capital from about 13% to 15% and boosted earnings growth. A larger share of stock value shifted from payouts to growth, which he calls a sea change that throws historical ratios off. He says historical data should be corrected for it.
“The value of the stock market to GDP is at all times highs. What changed? The corporate tax rate wasn't cut by, like, one or 2%. It was cut from the 35 to 21.”at 50:30
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Retained earnings compounding at 15% lifts average stock earnings growth to about 10% a year.
Hatfield says the average stock retains about 70% of earnings and reinvests them at about a 15% return on capital. That implies earnings grow about 10% a year, and the rest of the return comes from payouts. He uses this to frame stock market returns as a casino where the house takes about 10% a year.
“the average stock is retaining about 70% of earnings, is reinvesting those earnings at about 15%. That means earnings grow at 10.”at 1:00:55
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Darius Dale · 42 Macro
Market regime is worsening; expect more credit spread widening and multiple compression before buying the dip.
Their quant systems moved to a risk-off regime about a month ago. Clients across the buy side have cut gross exposure, tightened net exposure and rotated up in quality, lower beta, and pods are following each other down. Earnings expectations are at cycle highs for 2027 heading into major catalysts, so the market has to downshift growth expectations. They expect more credit spread widening and multiple compression, and recommend downshifting beta and rotating into less cyclical, higher-quality names if fully invested. They also believe policymakers will eventually supply liquidity, so the dip should be bought later.
“In our opinion, we think there's going to be more spread widening, more multiple compression before we get to a happy place.”at 17:34
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections ·
Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
Structural household inflows and buybacks create a large, valuation-insensitive bid under US stocks.
Alex estimates a structural bid for US equities from several sources: home-equity-funded down payments diverted to stocks (about $200-300B a year), 401(k) contributions (about $800-900B a year), and buybacks (about $1T, haircut to roughly $750B for lower execution). He argues this flow is automated and valuation-insensitive because it follows retirement plans, so it keeps supporting the market as long as people keep their jobs. He cites a median household income of $88,000 and a 12% contribution rate in the calculation.
“Plus you got the [401(k)] money that comes in every year. That's between 8 and $900,000,000,000 on our estimation.”at 25:06
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management
Buybacks, 401(k) money and fee-based wealth management create a relentless bid that dampens volatility.
Josh revisits his 2014 'relentless bid' thesis. Three forces drive it: buybacks shrink the float, 401(k) money keeps coming in, and brokers have shifted from commission trading to fee-based ETF allocation. The fee-based shift puts trillions into the same large stocks on a recurring basis. He argues this is why the VIX evaporates quickly after each spike, since flows arrive within a couple of weeks.
“I argued it's a volatility dampener. There's more guaranteed money into the same 500 stocks every time people allocate to their wealth accounts.”at 27:26
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management
Stock correlations have broken down this year, with a negative-beta effect driving narrow index moves.
Michael cites a SocGen chart showing about 40% of possible S&P 500 stock pairs are currently negatively correlated, far above the historical average. He says the index often moves one way while the average stock goes the other, a negative-beta effect. Drivers have rotated through energy, rates-sensitive sectors such as staples, REITs and utilities, Apple, and AI- and software-driven days. He notes that on the day he is discussing, equal-weight rose 98 basis points while the S&P fell 53.
“There are a lot of days where the stock market does X and the average stock goes the other way. So there's this weird negative beta effect.”at 33:14
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
US equity net issuance turns positive in 2026, the first time in years, and competes with debt for capital.
Barclays' modelling has 2026 as a positive net-issuance year, after years of net negative issuance (buybacks exceeding issuance by about $400–600bn a year). That is a swing of several hundred billion dollars. Equity issuance now competes with record debt issuance and government borrowing, and buybacks are roughly flat, so issuance is offsetting the buyback bid that used to support stocks. Alex compares this to the dot-com era, when too much paper hitting the market broke equities.
“So 2026 on our modeling numbers will be a positive net issuance year. Which is basically gonna be from what we can tell essentially the first time.”at 46:20
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
Tactically bearish on US stocks through year-end, on quant risk-off signals and crowded long positioning.
Barclays' BETTI quant framework has signalled risk-off since late May. A summer momentum unwind followed, and the AI revenue gap prompted a more bearish fundamental view from late August. The quant model still says be very bearish tactically. CTAs and vol-control and QIS funds are extremely long equity risk, retail is extremely long, real rates are high and spot-vol correlation is high. Alex sees no specific catalyst needed, because the financing pressure is already catalysing the move and CapEx commitments won't change before January results.
“So our quant model is tell... Still telling us be very bearish tactically.”at 1:04:39
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
S&P 500 could fall to 7,100–7,200, about 17.5x forward earnings, a reset he sees as healthy.
The largest 2026 pullback so far, around Iran, was only about 8.5%, which is not enough to reset valuations. Alex's target is 7,100–7,200, around the 200-day moving average, which equals about 17.5x forward NTM P/E. He wants the clearing price of risk to fall, which he thinks would be healthy even with some near-term damage, and sees the market able to rally again after a repricing.
“In my head, I've got between seventy one and seventy two hundred, which is around the two hundred day moving average. Right? That gets us down to about 17 and a half times forward NTMPE.”at 1:05:53
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Meb Faber · Cambria Investment Management
US stocks are very expensive and concentrated, so the next decade's returns look subdued.
The Shiller CAPE is around 40 as of end of July 2026, versus a long-run average of roughly 18 to 23 in low-inflation periods and a historical max of about 44 at the height of the dot-com bubble. Historically, that level does not bode well for the next decade of returns. The market is also highly concentrated: a handful of mega-cap technology names make up about a third of the S&P 500, the most top-heavy US market in a long while. So a 60% US stock allocation depends on a few dozen expensive companies, and return expectations should be kept in check.
“And as I'm recording this, US stocks are once again among the most expensive they've ever been in history, as measured by the ten year cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio... From a historical standpoint, that doesn't necessarily bode especially well for the next decade's worth of returns.”at 5:10
The Meb Faber Show: Cambria Fund Profile – Asset Allocation Suite ·
Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management
Large caps keep winning; hardship becomes moat for the biggest companies, which take share.
Brown argues that the S&P 500 is not really corporate America, since the index holds the best companies in each category, with a minimum market cap near $25B and proven profitability. Compliance costs, energy costs, trade issues and international law are headaches for average firms but moats for the biggest, which can staff experts or circumvent them. Mag Seven companies are nation states with ticker symbols. Over 15 years, the Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ 100 the Russell 3000, which reflects those advantages. He says the S&P 500 is driven by earnings from 50 or 60 companies, so the question for investors is whether something is good for the Mag Seven or the S&P 100.
“The Mag-seven, these are basically nation states with ticker symbols.”at 1:03:22
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management
S&P 500 likely peaks in December; year-end rally setup as bull market, midterms and Fed hike pass.
Josh's base rate: when the S&P 500 is up double digits at the midpoint of the year, the year's high almost always falls in December or January, based on about a hundred years of data. He says this is not science but a lot of years of data, and he notes that 2026 is a bull market. October's seasonal volatility has already happened, with real corrections, semis down 29% and some big industrials down 30%. The Fed hike is done, bond yields are backing off and oil is not racing higher. He expects the midterms to pass and investors to be up about 15% by Thanksgiving, and he points to the biggest IPOs in history being priced as part of the setup. He would buy something. His main risk is an exogenous shock nobody sees coming.
“When the S and P is up double digits through the midpoint of the year, you have an 89% chance that the high of the year will take place in December.”at 1:17:13
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Liz Ann Sonders · Charles Schwab
Small-cap stocks show sharp divergence: profitable, low-leverage, high-coverage companies are outperforming weaker ones.
Sonders says the index's resilience masks underlying stress. In small caps, such as the Russell 2000, there is a widespread split between profitable and unprofitable companies. Lower debt-to-equity companies significantly outperform higher debt-to-equity ones. High interest-coverage stocks outperform low-coverage ones. She reads this as lenders and the market discerning high-quality borrowers who still have access to capital, and where the weaknesses are.
“...we certainly see that in the small cap space within, say, an index like the Russell [2000] where you're seeing a really, really widespread open up between profitable companies and nonprofitable companies. ... Lower debt to equity companies significantly outperforming higher debt to equity.”at 8:28
On Investing (Charles Schwab): The Fed Holds, but the Pressure Builds ·
Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas
Market is rotating within equities, not out of them; breadth strong with money staying invested.
Verrone points to the Nasdaq falling about 150 basis points while about 30% of S&P stocks hit 20-day highs and advancers beat decliners two to one. He concludes that money is not leaving the asset class, but rotating within it. He notes the rotation looks more defensive than earlier in the year, with staples, health care and utilities leading, and that it has happened as US 10-year yields fell 37 basis points off their high without re-catalysing the purely cyclical parts of the market.
“Money does not wanna leave the asset class here. It's staying within. It's rotating within.”at 13:39
Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors
Market rally is broadening beyond defensives, with many sectors growing earnings; not just a defensive move.
Link says about half the S&P 500 has reported, with roughly 25% overall earnings growth, and that energy, tech, materials, industrials and financials are all participating. She argues the market is broader than a defensive rotation. She points out that with communication services and tech down about 2% and Google down 13%, the S&P would have fallen double digits under old conditions, yet it was only down about 50 basis points and the equal-weight index was flat.
“we're 50% through on the S and P 500, and we have many different sectors that have actually participated in the 25% overall growth... So it is broader than just being defensive in my mind.”at 15:50
Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors
Avoid a defensive posture; lean into the real economy outside AI, such as industrials, health care and utilities.
Snipe says the market should not be treated as a broadening into defensives, which does not excite him. He points to 3.4% GDP growth and other economic strength outside AI, including health care and regional banks. He sees dispersion as a possible friend for a portfolio manager, and argues that investors should lean into the real economy and non-AI areas such as industrials, health care and utilities.
“So I think it's an opportunity to kinda lean into the real economy and all things outside of AI being something to kinda take a look at, whether it's industrials, health care, utilities, you name it.”at 19:41
Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services
Market is rotating, not leaving; broadening supports stocks, and the third presidential year has historically been positive.
Lerner says the market held up despite tech weakness because money is rotating rather than leaving. Last month only tech made a new high, but this month only tech and communication services are down, while the equal-weight index is at its highest since early September and financials, industrials and small caps are rising. He calls this a healthy underlying development. He also notes the S&P 500 has not been down on a total return basis in the third year of a presidential cycle since 1950, which, along with an economy that avoids recession in that year, gives him a reason to be positive into next year.
“So to answer your question is what's keeping this market up is money is rotating as opposed to leaving the market. We think that's actually a healthy underlying development.”at 7:38
CNBC Power Lunch: Alphabet AI Sell-Off, EQT-Range Deal and Big3’s Public Market Plans ·
Chris Teston · Acuitas Investments
Small caps should keep leading: cheap valuations and higher forecast earnings than large caps, despite rate sensitivity.
Small caps have led since the 2025 market bottom, rising about 60%, yet remain underrepresented in client portfolios because investors have crowded into large-cap technology names. Teston argues the valuation opportunity is still there. He says small caps can fall at first when rates rise, but that the story is earnings: forecast earnings are higher for small caps than for large caps, and small caps do not always lag in rising-rate environments. His firm's underlying managers hold small caps, which is the basis for its exposure.
“small cap has led year to date. It's led notably since the market bottom in 2025... small caps up about 60% since then and has led the market, but still underrepresented in client portfolios.”at 39:13
CNBC Power Lunch: Alphabet AI Sell-Off, EQT-Range Deal and Big3’s Public Market Plans ·
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
Gromen is cautious on US stocks, holding 30% of liquid net worth in cash and T-bills.
Gromen does not like shorting stocks in a rigged market where liquidity is provided to the system whenever the Treasury market needs it, because the US is in fiscal dominance. He therefore holds 30% of his liquid net worth in cash and T-bills. He is cautious because the AI-related credit and consumer-credit problem is not yet being discussed and some names are already weakening.
“I'm sitting in 30% of my liquid net worth in cash and T bills.”at 25:12
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Patrick Ceresna · Big Picture Trading
The Nasdaq is in a bear flag and Mag Seven strength is not yet turning the index bullish; key S&P levels matter.
The Nasdaq has dropped below its 50-day moving average in what Ceresna calls a bear flag, and there is no sign yet that any Mag Seven stock can turn the Nasdaq trend bullish. The S&P 500 is holding above critical levels around 7,600 to 7,700, where systematic sell zones could trigger CTAs and vol-targeting funds to unwind bullish positioning. The Mag Seven are about 35% of the S&P 500 and have been the core support for the bull trend. The Mag Seven basket is now trading at its 50-day moving average, so whether it holds is a key test for the index. Breadth has improved, but he calls this still a Mag Seven story.
“Now, the S and P 500 continues to trade above the critical levels around 76 to 7,700, where there's a number of systematic sell zones where we would see CTAs and vol targeting funds”at 44:15
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Liz Thomas · SoFi
Investors are rotating into value, quality and low volatility; momentum has been left for dead.
Thomas points to the factors investors have rotated into this year. Momentum has been all but left for dead, while value, quality and low volatility are leading. From this she argues investors should be careful where they put their dollars and focus on high-quality, sometimes low-volatility companies. She expects the market to remain lumpy through the end of the year and into 2027 because AI is no longer a blanket buy.
“If you just look at the factors that investors have rotated into, momentum has been all but left for dead. We've got value. We've got quality. We've got low vol leading that.”at 24:40
CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Low near-term recession risk makes him less concerned about large, sustained declines in broad US equity indexes.
Basmajian's view of the equity market follows from his recession call. With layoffs low, construction and manufacturing employment rising, and no broad labour-market distress, recession risk in the near term is low. He therefore is less concerned about large, sustained declines in the broad equity indexes. He does not give a specific index level or timeframe for this view.
“Which makes us inclined to be less concerned about big, large sustained declines in the big, broad indexes... Equity indexes.”at 21:52
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Gargi Chaudhuri · BlackRock
Still like equities, favouring quality names with high returns on equity and strong free cash flow.
Chaudhuri still likes equities, especially with earnings season showing strength in parts of the market. Her preference is for quality: high return on equity and free cash flow matter in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Her case rests on a strong economy, with GDP growing in the mid-threes and nominal GDP above 6.5%, plus strong earnings. Strong beats have not yet been rewarded by the market.
“we still like equities, and especially when we see this earning season and we see the strength in certain parts of the equity market. Where we're thinking investors should go to is the quality part of the market.”at 14:12
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Kai Wu · Sparkline Capital
About half of the S&P 500 is tied to the AI infrastructure trade, so the index is highly concentrated in one bet.
Kai's holdings analysis classifies the S&P 500 into AI infrastructure (Mag Seven, chip stocks, and data-center firms such as Oracle), early adopters and laggards. He finds about 49-50% of the index sits directly in the AI infrastructure trade. Exposure has roughly doubled from about 25% in September 2019. Tech is about 35% of the index, and semiconductors are about half of that. Kai says the Nasdaq is about 67% in the same exposure, so QQQ and SPY holders who let winners run keep adding AI exposure unless they rebalance. He argues the index looks diversified by stock count but is highly correlated to one trade. Effective holdings are about 50, and the top 10 names are 36% of weight. He links this to market-cap weighting, which buys more of a stock as it rises. He notes that the S&P had its highest tech weighting right before the 2000 collapse. He attributes the rise both to fundamentals and to multiple expansion in AI infrastructure.
“when you do all the math, it turns out that... But 49%, let's call it 50% of the S and P is directly tied to this trade.”at 7:48
Excess Returns: The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds ·
Kai Wu · Sparkline Capital
Swapping AI infrastructure for diversifiers just swaps it for laggards, roughly doubling to quadrupling laggard exposure.
Kai tested diversifiers against an AI-infrastructure-heavy portfolio: traditional value (IWD), developed ex-US (EFA), equal-weight S&P (RSP) and US small caps (IWM). Infrastructure exposure falls to a low single-digit share, but laggard exposure rises from about 24% to somewhere between 40% and 80%. He concludes the mission is not accomplished because investors have traded one problem for another. He argues that AI should be seen as a spectrum rather than an all-in or all-out binary.
“The trade off is that you've just swapped out infrastructure for laggards... You've doubled to quadrupled your exposure to laggards.”at 39:17
Excess Returns: The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds ·
Kai Wu · Sparkline Capital
Traditional value's underweight to intangible-heavy, asset-light companies will keep costing it returns.
Traditional value funds hold laggards, have light exposure to new-economy companies, and spend less on R&D. Their holdings also have lower ROE because they are capital-intensive. Price-to-book captures tangible capital but misses intangible capital, which Kai links to innovation, R&D, global brands and high ROE. Traditional value therefore underweights asset-light businesses such as Google, and he expects companies like that to keep doing well.
“So the asset light businesses, like the Googles of the world that have done so well and likely will... Maybe not Google, but like companies like that, which will do well moving forward.”at 1:01:01
Excess Returns: The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds ·
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