Speaker · Updated
Jim Lebenthal: latest market views
Cerity Partners
Summary
Jim Lebenthal is a partner at wealth management firm Cerity Partners and a regular member of CNBC's Halftime Report Investment Committee, with a background in fixed income and municipal bonds.
Chorus has 37 views from Jim Lebenthal across 6 episodes on CNBC Halftime Report since October 19, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Alphabet, Amazon.com, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Microsoft; bearish on Apple.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AlphabetBullish ·
- Amazon.comBullish ·
- JPMorgan Chase & Co.Bullish ·
- MicrosoftBullish ·
- The Walt Disney CompanyBullish ·
- Lockheed MartinBullish ·
- NVIDIABullish ·
- AppleBearish ·
- Cleveland-CliffsBullish ·
- United Airlines HoldingsBullish ·
- AnthropicBullish ·
- Micron TechnologyBullish ·
What they talk about most
- US stock market outlook · 5
- AI infrastructure & data centers · 4
- Alphabet · 4
- Amazon.com · 2
- Lockheed Martin · 2
- US growth & recession risk · 2
- Cleveland-Cliffs · 2
- AI bubble & tech valuations · 2
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. · 1
- Microsoft · 1
- The Walt Disney Company · 1
- Adobe · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Amazon.comBullish
Amazon's selloff is the market flinching; AWS growth and capex plans make valuation forgiving, so he is not trimming.
Lebenthal trimmed Alphabet the day before but is not doing the same with Amazon. He cites Andy Jassy's claim that AWS will become a $1 trillion company and says that means he doesn't need to flinch at each market shot. He calls Amazon's valuation very forgiving, sees no sign of capex letting up, and reads the post-earnings selloff as the market overreacting rather than a change in fundamentals.
“I don't feel the same way about Amazon. ... I find these valuations very forgiving. There's no sign of CapEx letting up. So all of this to me is just the market flinching.”at 2:30
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
AlphabetBearish
Alphabet is in the penalty box for the foreseeable future over search ad concerns, so he trimmed the stock.
Lebenthal trimmed Alphabet because he expected the stock to be in the penalty box given the reaction to search ad revenue concerns. He argues search is far more central to Alphabet's profit engine than ads are to Amazon, so the reaction was outsized and the stock will stay pressured for a while.
“I said I wanna trim it a little bit because I thought it would be in the penalty box, and it will be for the foreseeable future.”at 2:30
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscaler capex plans from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet show AI spending is early, in the first third.
Lebenthal looks at the capex plans from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet and sees no sign of spending slowing. He takes this as the large language model providers' message that the AI buildout is still early, at best in the middle innings and more likely in the first third of the game.
“Amazon, and Alphabet, and I say it's game on. ... We're at best in the middle innings and more likely in the first third of the ballgame.”at 3:33
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
AlphabetBullish
AI-search ad disruption to Alphabet's search ads looks solvable; smarter teams are likely already working on it.
Lebenthal argues the search ad problem from AI answers looks solvable. Google could give part of the answer and make users click through for the rest, which is where ads appear. He reasons that if this seems solvable to an outsider, people at Alphabet and Amazon are likely working on it already.
“This, to me, seems very solvable. ... You just give half the answer and make them click through to get the rest of the answer, and that's where your ads pop up.”at 4:21
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
MicrosoftBullish
Microsoft's positive free cash flow is the key difference; its debt deal was scooped up, making it a winner.
Lebenthal says Microsoft's cloud and business look much like Alphabet's and AWS's, but its free cash flow is positive. A recent roughly $25 billion debt deal was snapped up quickly, unlike Oracle and Meta debt. He argues positive free cash flow puts a company in the winner's circle while spending continues, which explains the stock's move after the earnings report.
“Free cash flow is positive at Microsoft... that debt got scooped up really quickly to a degree that Oracle and Meta debt is not being scooped up. So that is the big difference, free cash flow positivity.”at 14:53
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
The selloff looks like a consolidating pause, not a recession or bear market, given the strong economic data.
Lebenthal notes that economic data is strong, with GDP at 3.4%, yet cyclicals, consumer names and materials are struggling. He applies Occam's razor: the simplest explanation for that disconnect is a consolidating pause rather than a recession, bear market, or peak spending, and that is how he is positioning.
“The simplest explanation based on the way you just set it up with the economic data, Scott, is that this is a consolidated pause, and that's how I'm playing it.”at 25:28
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
JPMorgan Chase & Co.Bullish
JPMorgan is the best bank to own; its premium valuation is earned if the economy and AI buildout hold.
If the economy stays fine and the AI infrastructure buildout continues, financials will benefit. Within financials, JPMorgan is the best of the group, and although it trades at a premium, Lebenthal argues the premium is deserved.
“If you believe that the AI build out is going to continue, then financials are gonna benefit, period. And if you're gonna own financials, as with any industry, you gotta own the best of the bunch, and that is JPMorgan. I know it sells at a premium. It sells at a premium for a reason.”at 37:03
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
The Walt Disney CompanyBullish
Disney has shown early signs of life; he owns it, but it must keep improving on the next earnings report.
He nearly sold before the last earnings report and is glad he didn't, because Disney has shown signs of life. He is candid that it needs to show a lot more, so the next earnings report is the test. He says he is in the stock.
“I almost threw in the towel before the last earnings report. I'm glad I didn't. It has shown signs of life. It needs to show a lot more signs of life. Let's see if it can follow through on the next earnings report. I'm in it.”at 38:13
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
AlphabetBearish
Alphabet is underweight: search narrative and negative free cash flow will keep the stock stuck for quarters.
Lebenthal cut Alphabet to about 3.5% versus a 5.5% S&P 500 weight. He expects the negative search narrative to persist for several months with no visible catalyst to change it. He also points to negative free cash flow from heavy AI spending as a drag. He sees real positives, including TPUs and Google Cloud growing over 100%, and says search can be fixed, for example by truncating AI Mode so users must click through to sources. As a portfolio manager, though, he wants to redeploy into names that can move within a few months, so he expects Alphabet to sit stuck for the next couple of quarters. He adds that a 14% search growth print next quarter would forgive the stock, but a further underperformance would extend the penalty box.
“Taking it further down underweight to the market. So about three and a half percent is my weighting. S and P five hundred is about five and a half percent. Here's why. I just don't think the negative narrative is gonna change anytime soon.”at 11:22
CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Funding for AI buildout is available, as SpaceX debt and Meta's offering show, removing a risk.
Lebenthal says a major risk was answered today: whether funding would be available. SpaceX issued $40 billion of debt and Meta is coming to market for, he believes, $95 billion in securities offerings, with soft roadshows and bankers saying the funding is there. He says this removes a risk. He concedes the return on these investments is a real question, but says that is a 2028 discussion, not a 2026 one.
“It's also SpaceX that issued $40,000,000,000 of debt. It's also that Meta's coming to market for, I believe, it's $95,000,000,000 in securities offerings... the bankers are saying that the funding is there. It removes a risk.”at 11:00
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
Expects markets to rally to new highs by year end, led by equal-weight rotation.
Lebenthal cites growing GDP, good labor markets and excellent profit growth. He notes the equal-weight S&P 500 is outperforming the cap-weighted index year to date. Defensives led recently, but financials and industrials are now leading, which he calls the turn he is looking for. He admits this is only one day, but says the economy is strong and he feels equally certain the market will reach new highs by year end.
“Underneath those risks, growing GDP, good labor markets, excellent profit growth... I feel equally certain that the markets will rally to new highs by year end.”at 11:00
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
US economy is strong: GDP projected near 3.5% and unemployment at 4.2%.
Lebenthal cites GDP growth projected at 3.5% for last quarter and unemployment at 4.2%. He points to everyday activity, such as crowded airports and restaurants on a Monday night, as evidence of an economy that is hopping. He uses these data as the basis for his view that the market turn is coming.
“GDP growth that right now is projected three and a half percent for last quarter, unemployment at 4.2%... This is an economy that's hopping. It's unquestionably hopping.”at 12:52
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
Lockheed MartinBullish
Likes Lockheed Martin: strong order book and market looking through margin pressure as production ramps.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Lockheed to overweight and raised its target to $835 from $690. Lebenthal doubts the stock reaches that target but says he very much likes it. He points to the order book, including 850 F-35s over ten years ordered by the US government, and to missile production ramping. The market rose after last week's earnings despite coming margin pressure, which he reads as investors looking through the pressure because production is ramping. He expects estimates to keep rising.
“I very much like Lockheed Martin right now. We see what the order book is doing. 850 [F-35s] over ten years being ordered by the US government.”at 41:15
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
AdobeUncertain
Adobe is range-bound; he will decide after December 9 earnings, possibly taking a tax-loss harvest.
Lebenthal owns Adobe, which has traded around $250 plus or minus $25 since the first-quarter software sell-off and recently set a higher low. He will report on December 9 and then decide. He is giving it one more shot to see if the market rewards good earnings. Otherwise he may use the position as a tax-loss harvest, because it is a loss in an otherwise good portfolio where he has realized gains this year.
“They're gonna report earnings December 9. After that, I'm gonna make a decision, and I may well use this as a tax loss harvest because as I said, it's a wealth in an otherwise very good portfolio”at 44:26
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
NVIDIABullish
NVIDIA's drop from its high is technical deleveraging, not fundamentals; it's a buying opportunity.
He is big in NVIDIA and fully invested. The stock fell from 243 to 212 in about two weeks, underperforming year to date and over the past year. He argues the semis' underperformance has nothing to do with fundamentals and is a technical reason. Over-levered players have unwound, and the positioning sell-off makes this a correction worth taking advantage of. He has been adding to Qualcomm, Oracle and Micron.
“Nobody nobody needs to convince me of the merits of NVIDIA. Yeah. I'm big in NVIDIA.”at 9:15
CNBC Halftime Report: Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26 ·
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Tech positioning is too negative; Anthropic IPO and OpenAI funding could trigger a rebound.
Net trading flows show one of the most dramatic net-selling periods in tech in recent years. Deutsche Bank data puts allocations at the 25th percentile, so positioning has gone too far to the negative. He says a catalyst would be Anthropic going public before the end of November and OpenAI closing its roughly $30 billion funding round, which would erase the worry about whether funding is available and turn trades back on. He is not saying this is definite.
“The positioning has already gone too far to the negative... Deutsche Bank tracks that, and allocations are in the twenty fifth percentile.”at 10:50
CNBC Halftime Report: Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26 ·
Amazon.comBullish
Amazon at 17x forward is too cheap given data centers that pay back in under three years.
He cannot believe Amazon trades at 17 times forward estimates. He expects a strong quarter with retail margin expansion. He cites Andy Jassy saying new data centers pay themselves back in less than three years, which he sees as one of the clearest examples of return on capex. He still wants more specific ROI evidence.
“I just can't believe this thing trades at 17 times forward estimates. ... Andrew Jassy gave us an absolute gem in the last quarterly call when he said that these new data centers that they're bringing on pay themselves back in terms of the investment that they make in less than three years.”at 16:57
CNBC Halftime Report: Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26 ·
AlphabetBullish
Alphabet's 1.3 PEG is cheap; multiples have compressed more than growth warrants.
He uses the PEG ratio because it gives a numerical answer to whether multiples have compressed enough for growth. Alphabet's PEG looking into next year is 1.3, which he calls quite cheap on an absolute basis. Most of these stocks are around that level and Amazon is lower, so multiples have compressed more than growth justifies. Alphabet is not all on capex: it has chips, Gemini, YouTube and search.
“The peg ratio right now looking into next year is 1.3... 1.3 on an absolute basis is really quite cheap.”at 20:22
CNBC Halftime Report: Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26 ·
S&P 500 earnings growth is decelerating, but multiples look attractive against growth.
He does not expect 30-plus percent earnings growth to continue. Full-year estimates for next year project S&P 500 earnings up 15%, so earnings are decelerating. He says that deceleration combined with a multiple that looks very attractive, judged by PEG, is good for stocks.
“I don't think we can expect to see 30 odd percent growth year over year in earnings like we're seeing this quarter. And that's not even what's projected full year next year estimates for S and P 500 earnings are up 15%”at 21:23
CNBC Halftime Report: Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26 ·
Meta PlatformsUncertain
Meta's AI spending does not yet cover its cost of capital; he is uncomfortable with the spend rate.
He is uncomfortable with Meta's spend. Pro forma analysis of what Meta might monetize does not cover the cost of capital today. He expects it will eventually, but it is not there yet. He notes that expense growth outpacing sales growth is a concern that people are not discussing enough, and he prefers Alphabet's spend profile, which is not all on the back of capex.
“I'm not comfortable with the spend at a company like Meta because anytime I do a pro forma on what [Meta] might monetize to, it doesn't cover the cost of capital. Not right now, but it will.”at 22:46
CNBC Halftime Report: Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26 ·
Staples were left for dead; the rally is a bounce from oversold levels and most are too expensive.
Lebenthal says that on a longer chart, staples have been left for dead. Part of their recent move is a bounce from a very oversold condition. He still thinks most of these names are a little too expensive for his taste, so the bounce is not a durable re-rating.
“If you draw that chart out further, you'll see the staples have been left for dead. So at least part of this is a bounce from a really oversold condition. Most of these are a little too expensive for my taste.”at 44:45
CNBC Halftime Report: Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26 ·
Lockheed MartinBullish
Lockheed Martin looks reasonably priced on PEG at 1.2, despite an 18x multiple.
Lebenthal says Lockheed Martin may be a little pricey at 18 times earnings, but its PEG ratio is only 1.2. He argues the growth justifies the multiple, so the stock looks reasonable on a growth-adjusted basis.
“Lockheed Martin. We know what they do. Maybe a little pricey at 18 times, but the peg ratio is only 1.2.”at 45:26
CNBC Halftime Report: Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26 ·
Equal-weight and cap-weight S&P are tied YTD; broadening has happened all year.
The equal-weight S&P 500 and the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 are in a dead tie year to date. Equal-weight has outperformed at many points and underperformed at others, so leadership has rotated all year. He is about 36% in tech versus 40% for the index and overweight healthcare, energy, metals and agriculture. He argues that you do not need to match index weights, and the broadening is more than defense.
“The equal weight and the market cap weighted S and P 500 are in a dead tie year to date... The new composition has been taking place all year.”at 7:21
CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·
AppleBearish
Apple's multiple is too high to own a full market weight; he is at half weight.
He says you do not have to own a market weight of Apple at its current multiple. He holds half a market weight and sold part of it before the last two earnings releases, when the stock was around $230 and it has since risen. He uses this as an example of how the market can be held below index weight without owning all of the mega caps.
“take Apple. You don't have to own a market weight of Apple at this multiple... I am at half market weight of apple.”at 12:55
CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·
The economy is not slowing; Atlanta Fed GDP at 3.5% shows the yield drop is not weakness.
The Atlanta Fed GDP estimate was revised to 3.5% real growth for the current quarter. Weekly jobless claims and industrial production show no sign of weakness. He argues the decline in the 10-year yield from 5.3% to 5.1% is the removal of an overshoot and not a sign of slow economic activity or a bad economy.
“Look at the numbers. The Atlanta Fed GDP today came out with a revised estimate for this quarter, 3.5% real GDP.”at 16:14
CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI spending is not at peak and this does not look like 1999; data centers pay back fast.
He believes AI spending is not at peak. He admits he could be wrong and says the market will show it. He says the situation does not feel like 1999 because data centers are still profitable the moment they come online. If spending is not near a peak, and that means more than a year away, then smaller players like CoreWeave and Oracle can have time to work through their troubles.
“I've said today... I'm a believer that we are not at peak spending in the AI trade. I could be wrong. We will see. But this does not feel like 1999 to me.”at 16:54
CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·
Around 5.1% 10-year yields are fine; he expects a 4.8%-5.2% range.
The 10-year fell from about 5.3% to 5.1%, which he reads as an overshoot unwinding, not a sign of economic weakness. Stocks have adjusted to 5.1%, and nobody should call that a nosebleed level. Yields spike and then return to a range, so he would not be surprised to see 4.8% to 5.2%. Stocks that struggle when rates rise have adjusted. If the S&P keeps climbing he would worry again, and a drop below 5% would bring hand-wringing over the economy even though it would just be a new range.
“I'm saying yields are fine where they are. 5.1%... I wouldn't be surprised if we're settling into a range between four point eight and five point two percent.”at 17:45
CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·
Thermo Fisher ScientificNeutral
Thermo Fisher breakout is real short term, but its premium multiple makes re-entry hard.
He agrees the stock is breaking out in the short term. A five-year chart shows it went nowhere for a long time before that, and the stock was digesting a big merger. He calls it high quality but says it trades at a premium multiple, so it will be hard to get back in at this price. He concedes Josh may be right.
“It is obviously breaking out, Josh, in the short term. But if you look at, like, a five year chart of this thing, it went nowhere.”at 36:35
CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·
United Airlines HoldingsBullish
United is a good, attractively priced airline that should rally on lower oil prices.
Lebenthal says United is a good airline that is attractively priced compared with Delta, which has been the group's winner. The stock is a play on fuel costs. Any reduction in oil prices, especially a lasting one tied to the Persian Gulf, would help United's margins and should lift the stock.
“United Airlines is actually a good airline. I think it's attractively priced. And if you get any reduction in oil prices, any any piece, you know, real lasting piece in the Persian Gulf, United Airlines should take off”at 42:33
CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·
Cleveland-CliffsBullish
Cleveland-Cliffs has more upside than Steel Dynamics because of its deleveraging path.
Lebenthal concedes Steel Dynamics has the better balance sheet. He argues Cleveland-Cliffs has a strong path to deleveraging, and that the gap between analyst estimates for next year's EBITDA and where analysts think the company will actually land is wide. He says he is not calling Steel Dynamics a bad stock, but that Cleveland-Cliffs has more potential to make money.
“there's a very strong path to deleveraging at Cleveland Cliffs that you could drive a truck between analyst estimates for next year EBITDA and where they think they're gonna come in. ... you have the potential to make a lot more money in Cleveland Cliffs.”at 44:52
CNBC Halftime Report: The Bull Market Backdrop in Question: The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/20/26 ·
7 older views from Jim Lebenthal are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- CNBC Halftime Report · 6 episodes
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