Shifting Sentiment and Sliding Semis: The Investment Committee's Strategy 10/23/26

ServiceNow

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  ServiceNow is an AI beneficiary, not a casualty, and cannot be disrupted by AI in software.

  He calls it the air traffic controller of the corporate IT stack, a platform of platforms giving companies a single point of control over technology. It is an AI beneficiary, not an AI casualty, and one of the places that cannot be disrupted by the AI-driven software selloff.

  “It's an AI beneficiary. It's not an AI casualty. ... I think it's one of the places that cannot be disrupted by all the stuff we're seeing in software.”at 36:16

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  ServiceNow is the conductor for AI agents, not a plug-in; its growth and margins are underappreciated.

  Snipe argues ServiceNow owns proprietary enterprise data used by about 90% of the Fortune 500, which lets it monitor and govern AI agents as agentic AI spreads. He calls it the 'conductor' that choreographs new technologies, unlike plug-ins such as Salesforce. He points to 20-25% revenue growth and expanding margins, and says leaning into AI is lifting average selling prices, a big driver of margin expansion. Stephanie Link adds that the shift from seat-based to consumption-based pricing gives more visibility and ARR. Snipe owns the stock, his team likes it, and he made it his final trade the prior day as upgrades start to spread.

  “ServiceNow owns a proprietary data for a lot of enterprise companies. And for them to be able to monitor and govern those agents is... it's very important for that company.”at 37:12

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  ServiceNow is not expensive for its 20-25% growth; the market misunderstands the story.

  Link argues ServiceNow's valuation is reasonable for its growth. She cites 20-25% revenue growth, a roughly 25x multiple and margin expansion, and calls the stock's story 'totally misunderstood'. The valuation case rests on growth outpacing the multiple, and she has no stated position in the stock.

  “Right. For the growth that you're getting. I mean, 20 to 25% growth, 25x times multiple margin expansion.”at 37:37

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 36 speakers in other episodes, 37 bullish and 17 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Meta's monetization and revenue growth should support confidence in its upcoming earnings.

  She cites Meta's monetization up 26%, arguing that monetization and growth will increase and give people confidence. Later she notes Meta put up 26% revenue growth, OpEx came in better than expected even as capex rose for the full year, and she is controlling what it can control. She acknowledges the stock fell and expects the story to improve in the upcoming report.

  “Meta, I know the stock fell, but their monetization up 26%. I think that is gonna drive the company's next week that report earnings.”at 3:29

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersUncertain

  Meta's AI spending does not yet cover its cost of capital; he is uncomfortable with the spend rate.

  He is uncomfortable with Meta's spend. Pro forma analysis of what Meta might monetize does not cover the cost of capital today. He expects it will eventually, but it is not there yet. He notes that expense growth outpacing sales growth is a concern that people are not discussing enough, and he prefers Alphabet's spend profile, which is not all on the back of capex.

  “I'm not comfortable with the spend at a company like Meta because anytime I do a pro forma on what [Meta] might monetize to, it doesn't cover the cost of capital. Not right now, but it will.”at 22:46

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 13 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  AWS growth could accelerate to 42-43% as doubled capacity lets it meet demand.

  She bought more Amazon in one account. She expects AWS to accelerate from 37% growth last quarter to 42 or 43% because it has doubled its capacity, so it can meet demand better than in recent quarters. AWS is one of Amazon's highest-margin businesses outside advertising, so the quarter should be strong.

  “I actually think AWS could accelerate from 37% growth last quarter to 42 or 43% because they have doubled their capacity.”at 16:20

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Amazon at 17x forward is too cheap given data centers that pay back in under three years.

  He cannot believe Amazon trades at 17 times forward estimates. He expects a strong quarter with retail margin expansion. He cites Andy Jassy saying new data centers pay themselves back in less than three years, which he sees as one of the clearest examples of return on capex. He still wants more specific ROI evidence.

  “I just can't believe this thing trades at 17 times forward estimates. ... Andrew Jassy gave us an absolute gem in the last quarterly call when he said that these new data centers that they're bringing on pay themselves back in terms of the investment that they make in less than three years.”at 16:57

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 31 speakers in other episodes, 26 bullish and 11 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  NVIDIA's drop from its high is technical deleveraging, not fundamentals; it's a buying opportunity.

  He is big in NVIDIA and fully invested. The stock fell from 243 to 212 in about two weeks, underperforming year to date and over the past year. He argues the semis' underperformance has nothing to do with fundamentals and is a technical reason. Over-levered players have unwound, and the positioning sell-off makes this a correction worth taking advantage of. He has been adding to Qualcomm, Oracle and Micron.

  “Nobody nobody needs to convince me of the merits of NVIDIA. Yeah. I'm big in NVIDIA.”at 9:15

Microsoft

Across the shows: 7 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Microsoft's Copilot adoption and Azure growth will make the quarter a strong story.

  He expects a very nice story at next week's print. Microsoft should have about 30 million paid Copilot users, and Azure should grow 40 to 45%. Free cash flow is positive, unlike last quarter, so he expects the names to be strong.

  “Microsoft has an... interesting story as well going into the quarter... 30,000,000 paid, Copilot users. Azure's business will be up 40 to 45%.”at 15:10

Alphabet

Across the shows: 9 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Alphabet's 1.3 PEG is cheap; multiples have compressed more than growth warrants.

  He uses the PEG ratio because it gives a numerical answer to whether multiples have compressed enough for growth. Alphabet's PEG looking into next year is 1.3, which he calls quite cheap on an absolute basis. Most of these stocks are around that level and Amazon is lower, so multiples have compressed more than growth justifies. Alphabet is not all on capex: it has chips, Gemini, YouTube and search.

  “The peg ratio right now looking into next year is 1.3... 1.3 on an absolute basis is really quite cheap.”at 20:22

Vertiv Holdings Co

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Vertiv's pullback is not justified by fundamentals; she sees it as a buy now.

  She owns Vertiv for the AI infrastructure build-out and its supply chain. Vertiv is still up 21% year to date and she has felt the pain of the recent drop, but she does not think the fundamentals justify the pullback. She expects great quarters, great backlogs, better margins and market share gains, and says the stock is a buy now. Momentum may be slipping from the group.

  “But I don't think the fundamentals justify the pullback. Maybe the momentum is kinda slipping from the group, but I do think, overall, they're gonna have great quarters, great backlogs, better margins, market share gains across all three of these names that I just mentioned, and I think they're buys now.”at 24:14

Quanta Services

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Quanta's pullback is unjustified by fundamentals; she sees it as a buy now.

  She owns Quanta for the AI infrastructure build-out and its supply chain. It is up 29% year to date, and she has felt the recent pain. She does not think fundamentals justify the pullback and expects great quarters, backlogs, better margins and market share gains, so she calls it a buy now.

  “But I don't think the fundamentals justify the pullback. Maybe the momentum is kinda slipping from the group, but I do think, overall, they're gonna have great quarters, great backlogs, better margins, market share gains across all three of these names that I just mentioned, and I think they're buys now.”at 24:14

GE Vernova

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  GE Vernova's pullback is unjustified by fundamentals; she sees it as a buy now.

  She owns GE Vernova for the AI infrastructure build-out and its supply chain. It is still up 26% year to date, and she has felt the pain of the recent pullback. She does not think fundamentals justify the drop and expects great quarters, backlogs, better margins and market share gains, so she calls it a buy now.

  “But I don't think the fundamentals justify the pullback. Maybe the momentum is kinda slipping from the group, but I do think, overall, they're gonna have great quarters, great backlogs, better margins, market share gains across all three of these names that I just mentioned, and I think they're buys now.”at 24:14

Eaton

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Eaton's drop is an opportunity; electrification and digitization demand will not slow.

  Eaton has been cut from up almost 30% to up 16% in a few weeks. He thinks there is too much capital flowing toward the infrastructure space, and Eaton is part of the electrification and digitization megatrends that will not slow down. He sees the drop as an opportunity and a potential trend going forward.

  “There's just too much capital in that direction, and they're a part of all the megatrends, electrification, the digitization stories. I just don't think that slows down. For me, I think of it as an opportunity.”at 25:48

Wells Fargo & Company

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Wells Fargo is undervalued at 1.5x book and should catch up over the next couple of quarters.

  She is buying more after a strong quarter. The stock is down 11% year to date despite progress after the asset cap lift. She argues the ROTCE targets of 7 to 18% are not aggressive and the bank can do better. Guidance for net interest income was better than she expected, and net interest margins expanded for the first time in several quarters. At 1.5 times book the stock is a value and a laggard that should play catch-up.

  “I think the stock at 1.5 times book, Scott, is... It's a value here, and I... It's just a bit of laggard, and I just think it's gonna play catch up over the next couple of quarters.”at 28:05

Zscaler

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Zscaler trades at a discount to history and its margins should expand to 27-30% by 2030.

  She is adding Zscaler as a new position. It is up only 9% year to date versus over 120% for CrowdStrike and Palo Alto, and trades at a 50% discount to its historic EV to sales. Its total addressable market on existing customers is growing about 15 billion, and the TAM is expected to grow 25%. Margins are expected to expand to 27 to 30% by 2030. She calls it a show-me story after weak quarters but says the growth and valuation make it look like one of the best buying opportunities.

  “It trades at a discounted valuation, 50% discount EV to sales versus its historic rate. ... Margins are going to expand between now and 2030 to 27 to 30%.”at 29:27

Fortinet

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Fortinet is one of the greatest companies in the world; he wishes he had added on the dip.

  His firm has owned Fortinet for a long time and went through some pain. The stock has now woken up, and he says it is obvious these are some of the greatest companies in the world. He regrets not adding when everything got beaten up, and he thinks the cybersecurity theme will keep benefiting as AI agents raise threat levels.

  “We've owned Fortinet a long time... It did wake up. Thankfully, we didn't do anything. But, boy, I wish I would have added back when everything got beat up because it's kinda obvious right now that these are some of the greatest companies in the world.”at 32:07

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 26 speakers in other episodes, 20 bullish and 8 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  SpaceX's strong quarter and AI revenue growth show the story is just getting going.

  She describes SpaceX's quarter as phenomenal: total revenue up 161%, led by AI revenue up 754%. Capacity grew 22% sequentially, which gives great visibility, and guidance rose 50% relative to expectations. She says the story is just getting going and she likes both the story and the stock move, backing a double upgrade.

  “It was a phenomenal quarter. They have phenomenal momentum. Total revenues of a 161%, led by AI total revenue growth of 754%.”at 35:43

SLB

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  SLB's earnings power could be much higher once the Middle East war ends and that business recovers.

  Link says SLB reported a really good quarter, helped by consistent execution and a CEO she describes as very consistent. Margins have upside. Its Middle East business is sluggish because of the war, so if the conflict ends, the company's earnings power could be much larger than current results show.

  “And this is when the Middle East business is kinda sluggish given what's going on with the war. So just imagine if we ever get through that, what this earnings power of this company could be.”at 42:54

The Boeing Company

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsUncertain

  Boeing's stock hinges on whether it guides to $4-5B of 2027 cash flow, which would be fine given low expectations.

  Link expects mixed results ahead of Boeing's Tuesday report. Deliveries will be light because of product constraints, but the question is when cash flow improves. She asks whether the company will guide to $4-5 billion for 2027. If it does, she thinks the stock will be fine, given low expectations after a weak year with the stock down 13% year to date.

  “Its deliveries are gonna be light because of product constraints, but when do we get better cash flow? Is it 4 to 5,000,000,000 for 2027? I think if they guide to that, we'll be okay, especially given the low expectations.”at 43:29

The Coca-Cola Company

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsNeutral

  Coca-Cola's valuation bar is very high ahead of earnings; he would not buy more into the report.

  Snipe says Coca-Cola is the only staple his fund owns and has had a monster run. He would not buy it into earnings if he didn't already own it, because its valuation is high and the bar is very high. He implies he holds it but would not add, given the stretched valuation after the rally.

  “It's the only staple we own. It's been on a monster tear of late. It's probably not a name if I didn't own it that I would buy into earnings because the valuation it sits at, the bar is very high.”at 43:50

Devon Energy

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Devon Energy is an unloved oil name, but its cash flow and capital discipline should win out.

  Snipe calls Devon Energy a sector nobody wants to own. He argues investors should own the cash flow and the capital discipline, and he expects the market to catch up. His case rests on the company's cash generation and discipline being underpriced by a market that avoids the sector.

  “Devon Energy sector, no one wants to own, but own the cash flow, own the discipline and let the market catch up, I think.”at 45:16

Lockheed Martin

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Lockheed Martin looks reasonably priced on PEG at 1.2, despite an 18x multiple.

  Lebenthal says Lockheed Martin may be a little pricey at 18 times earnings, but its PEG ratio is only 1.2. He argues the growth justifies the multiple, so the stock looks reasonable on a growth-adjusted basis.

  “Lockheed Martin. We know what they do. Maybe a little pricey at 18 times, but the peg ratio is only 1.2.”at 45:26

US stock market outlook

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Market is broadening because the economy is holding up and earnings are strong; the defensive leadership is not the right call.

  Earnings are up 38% with about 20 companies reported. Retail sales rose 5.1% excluding gasoline, and ISM manufacturing and services are both well above 50, signalling expansion. Yields fell from 5.36% to 4.95% this week, and the S&P equal weight is up almost 2% week to date while the S&P is down 0.5%. Materials, financials and discretionary are each up about 6% month to date and homebuilders up 3%. She concedes the leaders are somewhat defensive but argues the broadening is real because the economy is doing okay despite the unknowns, and says the value is in the cyclical sectors.

  “So we're broadening out because the economy is doing okay in the face of all the unknowns.”at 2:20

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  S&P 500 earnings growth is decelerating, but multiples look attractive against growth.

  He does not expect 30-plus percent earnings growth to continue. Full-year estimates for next year project S&P 500 earnings up 15%, so earnings are decelerating. He says that deceleration combined with a multiple that looks very attractive, judged by PEG, is good for stocks.

  “I don't think we can expect to see 30 odd percent growth year over year in earnings like we're seeing this quarter. And that's not even what's projected full year next year estimates for S and P 500 earnings are up 15%”at 21:23

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Staples, healthcare and utilities are risk-off hiding spots that have run too far, not a broad cyclical rotation.

  Snipe argues the market is in risk-off mode, and staples, healthcare and utilities are the risk-off beneficiaries. He says the breadth is not a broad cyclical rotation. These defensive sectors are where money goes to hide, but it has to stay invested somewhere, so he wouldn't be in them. Staples, healthcare and utilities have gotten ahead of themselves.

  “Right? And so I think these areas are just where money goes to hide but needs to stay invested, and as such, I wouldn't be there.”at 44:35

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Staples were left for dead; the rally is a bounce from oversold levels and most are too expensive.

  Lebenthal says that on a longer chart, staples have been left for dead. Part of their recent move is a bounce from a very oversold condition. He still thinks most of these names are a little too expensive for his taste, so the bounce is not a durable re-rating.

  “If you draw that chart out further, you'll see the staples have been left for dead. So at least part of this is a bounce from a really oversold condition. Most of these are a little too expensive for my taste.”at 44:45

US Treasuries & yields

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Bonds were way oversold after the yield spike; now is the time to buy them as a shock absorber.

  Yields moved two standard deviations up and then reversed, reflecting macro and risk-off dynamics linked to semis price action. He had said bonds were way oversold and still likes them quite a bit. He sees bonds as a natural shock absorber, so he would barbell AI-related exposure with them.

  “bonds were way oversold. Now is the time to buy bonds. ... They're a natural shock absorber to this.”at 12:24

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  The bond rally is a flight to safety on AI fears, not a sign of a slowing economy.

  She argues the yield drop was a spark that lit the bond rally. She does not see a slowing economy, since retail sales, ISM and earnings are all strong. She thinks the move is a flight to safety on fears that the AI story could unravel, which would hit the economy because AI has had the biggest influence on it.

  “It's not slowing economy... I think that's a flight to safety a little bit on fears”at 13:54

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  AI buildout is generational and growth will get financed, but the cost of capital is the key risk.

  He is confident long term in the AI infrastructure theme, which he calls a generational build-out where people will make a lot of money. The real question is financing. He thinks financing will be available and growth will be there, but at what cost. If the weighted average cost of capital is too high it compresses margins and pushes the forward multiple lower. He says his firm is heavily invested in the space.

  “is the financing of all this growth built on pillars of salt and sand? And the answer to that is probably no. I think that there's gonna be financing available, and the growth will be there, but it also becomes at what cost?”at 7:22

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Tech positioning is too negative; Anthropic IPO and OpenAI funding could trigger a rebound.

  Net trading flows show one of the most dramatic net-selling periods in tech in recent years. Deutsche Bank data puts allocations at the 25th percentile, so positioning has gone too far to the negative. He says a catalyst would be Anthropic going public before the end of November and OpenAI closing its roughly $30 billion funding round, which would erase the worry about whether funding is available and turn trades back on. He is not saying this is definite.

  “The positioning has already gone too far to the negative... Deutsche Bank tracks that, and allocations are in the twenty fifth percentile.”at 10:50

IPOs, M&A & deal activity

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  AI companies are already crowding each other out of the IPO window as they chase the same capital.

  He says there is only so much ability to raise capital. He sees crowding-out effects already in the upcoming IPO window, and SpaceX's spending spooked the market. Scott Wapner ties this to Meta's filing about trying to reach market before others. Snipe says haves and have-nots will emerge and the haves will get capital, but at what price.

  “You're already hearing crowding out effects in the IPO window that's coming up”at 18:07

Cybersecurity

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  AI and cybersecurity spending is rising; CTO budgets keep expanding and no slowdown is visible.

  He says the cybersecurity story is simply more AI and more cybersecurity. CTO budgets keep expanding, so there is more opportunity for the leading best-of-breed names such as CrowdStrike, Palo Alto and Fortinet. He sees no operational slowdown in how these companies execute their addressable markets. Threats are endemic, and AI agents that could cause harm make protection more important.

  “I just very simply say it's like more AI, more cybersecurity, period. ... I think, you know, CTO budgets are continuing to expand.”at 31:02