Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26

Alphabet

Across the shows: 19 speakers in other episodes, 17 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Alphabet's cloud numbers will be blowouts, and the market will accept its AI spend.

  Brynn expects Alphabet's numbers to be blowouts, as she did for Microsoft. The market should accept the spending because Alphabet has a huge cloud platform, unlike Meta. Cloud results should be strong, so she thinks both companies will do fantastically well.

  “the market's gonna be very comfortable with the spend that Microsoft has because they have this huge cloud platform, and the same goes for Google as well. And so I think both are gonna do just, like, fantastic.”at 12:55

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Alphabet is better positioned than Microsoft because its spending concerns are already priced in.

  Alphabet rose 116% after its July 22 report, reversing its prior decline. Since July 22 it has fallen 5%, because the street got uncomfortable with negative free cash flow and about $200 billion of elevated spend. Microsoft and Alphabet have both underperformed the S&P year to date. Joe argues Alphabet is the better setup on expectations, positioning and sentiment because it has already priced in the bearish activity. Microsoft would need to beat all expectations to hold its roughly 36% gain since late July.

  “I would argue it is Alphabet because it has already priced in that bearish activity since its earnings report on the elevated spend.”at 16:49

Microsoft

Across the shows: 18 speakers in other episodes, 13 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Microsoft's Azure and cloud numbers will be blowouts; the market will tolerate its AI spend.

  Brynn sees a clear link between Azure numbers and compute. She thinks Microsoft is finally getting its Copilot tools to work and that usage numbers will be great. Amy Hood has talked about free cash flow turning positive. She expects enterprise, Copilot and cloud to be strong. Unlike Meta, which has no cloud platform, Microsoft has a huge cloud platform, so the market should be comfortable with its spend. She expects both Microsoft and Google to do fantastically well.

  “I think that Microsoft is finally getting their co work, copilot to work. We use it all the time. I think usage numbers are gonna be great.”at 12:55

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Microsoft should break out above $5.50 in coming weeks after a strong report.

  Bill expects a strong report. He is watching the chart and thinks the stock could break out above $5.50 after the earnings. He expects Azure revenue of about $34.5 billion, which he thinks will be reported to settle the guessing game. He thinks Azure growth could guide above 45%, beating consensus with some whispers higher. Meta's report set a bar where a less bad result from Microsoft would be a tailwind. Microsoft is one of his top five holdings, and he will sit tight and may lean in on a breakout.

  “I expect this stock to really break out, get out above $5.50 in the coming weeks on the heels of this report.”at 14:20

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 55 speakers in other episodes, 47 bullish and 28 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBearish

  Meta's gains reversed on extreme bullish expectations and positioning; the stock is at risk.

  Meta reversed all the gains it made after the September Muse announcement. The stock had reached about $625 and then reversed everything. It did so because expectations were extremely high, with extreme bullishness and extreme bullish positioning. The company is also raising nearly $100 billion in equity. Joe calls that an awful combination when extreme bullishness is embedded in a stock.

  “It did so because it had such high expectations. It had extreme bullishness, and it had extreme bullish positioning. And it's out there raising nearly a $100,000,000,000 in equity.”at 17:30

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBearish

  Meta's capex and negative free cash flow are a headwind; he trimmed the position.

  Meta's 2026 capex is guided to $135 to $145 billion, with 2027 estimates heading toward $200 billion, and free cash flow is negative. Bill calls the capex story a complete headwind right now. The stock failed to hold above $700, which is now heavy resistance. Meta did not follow through on the Muse news after earnings. Bill cut the position from 2.5% to 1.5% to raise cash for flexibility. He doesn't like the story behind the stock, so he still holds some.

  “I think CapEx story is just a complete headwind right now. A 135,000,000,000 to 145,000,000,000 is what they're looking at for 2026 CapEx, and then some of the estimates for 2027 are up towards $200,000,000,000.”at 18:26

Lam Research

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Lam Research's post-earnings selloff marked an earnings bottom; the stock is now moving higher.

  Lam Research reported on October 21 with good earnings, but the price action was bad. Joe says that turned out to be an earnings bottom, and the stock is now moving higher. He sees this as part of a reversal of the pessimism that carried into the weekend. He expects KLA Corp to be read the same way.

  “Lam Research, they reported on October 21, bad price action after a good earnings report. Guess what? That happened to be an earnings bottom. That's now moving higher.”at 21:15

SK Hynix

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  SK Hynix's results are excellent and its bookings are contracted; the price skepticism is unwarranted.

  Brynn bought DRAM before SK Hynix's US IPO. Samsung and SK Hynix make up about 45% of the DRAM ETF. Quarter over quarter, SK Hynix's revenue rose 32% and operating profit rose about 38%. Half of its bookings are already contracted through 2028, with long-term contracts running to 2030. The price action in SK Hynix, DRAM and Samsung shows peak skepticism. She says the numbers totally contradict the price action, and the skepticism is healthy because it dampens animal spirits.

  “I mean, the numbers from SK Hynix were insane. So quarter over quarter, their revenue was up 32%. Quarter over quarter, operating profits up, what, 38%... Half of their bookings are already contracted out through 2028.”at 22:07

Vertiv Holdings Co

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Vertiv's blowout quarter and 13% jump give confidence in AI-driven industrial demand.

  Vertiv's Americas revenue grew 74%, which Joe calls staggering and the best report in five years. The stock is up 13% today. That gives confidence to the industrial sector on the relationship between AI spending and the ability to drive revenue growth. It is one of the two reports he says are driving the week's rebound, alongside SK Hynix.

  “Vertiv, 74% growth in The Americas in terms of their revenue. Staggering numbers, the best report they've put forward in five years.”at 23:31

Cboe Global Markets

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBullish

  Cboe should benefit as elevated volatility returns through the end of 2026; he owns it.

  Joe personally owns Cboe, which has had a spectacular bounce over the last four days. He thinks exchanges come back into play as the year ends, because elevated volatility is coming. That volatility could benefit trading revenue for some banks too. He cites the equity side of the trading business as having been strong this year.

  “I own personally CBOE, which has had a spectacular bounce here over the last four days. I think the exchanges come back into play here as we move through the end of, 2026 because we're gonna see that elevated volatility.”at 24:37

Micron Technology

Across the shows: 14 speakers in other episodes, 7 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Memory pricing stays at least stable through 2030; Baruch is a long-run believer in Micron.

  Baruch's firm trimmed 50 bps of Micron because it was more than a 5% position. He still sees memory pricing continuing its trajectory and staying at least stable through 2030, and calls himself a long-run believer. Clients who bought before 2025 have a cost basis around $70, so gains are large. The trim is framed as risk management within a semis overweight that is being reduced ahead of the Fed and midterms, not as a change in the fundamental view.

  “we still see memory pricing. It's gonna be... Continue this trajectory... at least stable through 2030. We're a long run believer in this name.”at 37:57

Broadcom

Across the shows: 9 speakers in other episodes, 6 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Broadcom has reclaimed key $333 support and should keep rising off recent lows despite the trim.

  Baruch trimmed 50 bps of Broadcom as a risk-management step, not because he is bearish. He points out that the stock is back above key support at 333 and that its response to yesterday's trading off the lows looks good. He expects the move to continue pretty well, while acknowledging the firm is reducing its overweight in semis heading into the Fed and midterms.

  “it's back above, key support three thirty three... We like what it... The way it's looking in yesterday's response to... Off those lows, I think, should continue pretty well.”at 38:39

CrowdStrike Holdings

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  CrowdStrike and cybersecurity will keep doing very well; need for cybersecurity will grow.

  Baruch trimmed CrowdStrike because it had grown to nearly a 4% position and is a more volatile name, so the trim is about sizing. He says he loves the company and the trajectory of need for cybersecurity, and expects that need to grow. He thinks CrowdStrike and cybersecurity will continue to do very well. The trim is framed as creating flexibility into the Fed and midterms.

  “I think CrowdStrike and cybersecurity are gonna continue to do very well... We love the trajectory of the need for cybersecurity. We only think that's going to grow.”at 39:05

Global X Cybersecurity ETF

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Cyber stocks rallied as AI hacking threats raise security needs; she is a long-term holder.

  Talkington owns the cyber ETF as a long-term holder and likes the diversification over a single name such as CrowdStrike. She says cyber stocks ripped earlier this year once investors realized more cybersecurity would be needed, not less, because of AI-enabled hacks. She sees the position as sized correctly and does not need to trim it. She plans to hold it over a full cycle.

  “all of these cyber stocks just ripped... we're gonna need more cyber security, not less from all of these AI hacks... And so I'm a long term holder. Don't need to trim it.”at 39:59

Invesco China Technology ETF

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBearish

  China tech ETF CQQQ has been a dog; China memory competition did not materialise, so it was cut.

  CQQQ was held in the tactical ETF model as a hedge against the firm's large overweight in semis. The thesis was that China might bring competition in memory. That did not happen, and the ETF has lagged all year. Baruch admits the call was wrong and says it is okay to be wrong, so the position was cut and the money moved to transports.

  “We looked at CQQQ as a little bit of a hedge... as China may have been and brought some competition in the memory space. That did not turn out to be true, and this thing has been a dog all year long.”at 40:54

SPDR S&P Transportation ETF

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Transports are in a secular bull market; equal-weight XTN is the preferred way to play it.

  Baruch views transports as being in a secular bull market. They have pulled back from highs but are retesting prior-year highs over the last two years. He moved money from CQQQ into XTN, an equal-weight transport index, rather than IYT, which is heavy in rails and Uber. He cites strong US growth as a tailwind and wants transport exposure in the portfolio tactically.

  “We think the transports are in a secular bull market. Transports have pulled back from the highs. They're retesting their prior year highs for the last two years.”at 41:22

Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  INFL gives diversified commodity exposure and has performed strongly versus the S&P and Nasdaq.

  Talkington says INFL holds wheat and precious metals and a lot of metal exposure, using capital-light vehicles instead of miners. She likes that it combines energy, exchanges, and metals and mining. She says it is a good basket that does not look like the S&P or Nasdaq, which is hard to find, and its performance has been really strong at the same time.

  “I like INFL because you get energy, you get the exchanges, you get metals and mining... it's just a really good basket of things that doesn't look like the S and P or the Nasdaq... and the performance has been really strong.”at 46:29

RTX

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  RTX is a high-quality defense name; Baruch is putting half his raised cash into it.

  Baruch is putting half of the cash the firm raised into RTX. He calls it a high-quality defense name. He points out that the stock is back above its 200-day moving average this week, which supports the entry.

  “with the cash that we raised, we're putting half of that to RTX. High quality defense name. It's back above the 200 moving average this week.”at 47:08

US rates & the Fed

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  Market prices more Fed work ahead, with up to two 2027 hikes; dissents have preceded hikes before.

  Dissents can signal a hawkish turn: last time, dissents came before the Fed hiked. Warsh has said the Fed has work to do if it lacks confidence inflation is heading toward target. Two-year yields near 4.77%, roughly 90 to 100 basis points above fed funds, imply the market expects more hikes, with up to two priced for 2027. Steve calls it wishful thinking to assume hikes are off the table next year or that hikes can't work. The Fed affects demand by pushing rates high enough to bring demand below potential, and it has only one tool.

  “Joe is right. There is a... Another hike priced in, but it's also worth pointing out the market has more than that priced in for '27 as many as two rate hikes priced in... So the market thinks the Fed has more work to do here.”at 5:12

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Fed hikes won't touch inflation drivers; expects at most one December hike, then a pause.

  The Fed has one blunt instrument, the policy rate, since it won't meaningfully use the balance sheet. Rate hikes work on inflation born from too much credit, but with long lags. Today's inflation is driven by factors rate hikes won't affect, so hikes will have zero impact on those drivers. Brynn expects perhaps one hike in December and then a pause. Roughly $8 trillion of US debt refinances on a one-year basis, so interest costs are very sensitive to short-term rates. That is a second reason she doesn't expect much more hiking this year or next.

  “that blunt instrument of moving interest rates higher will have zero impact on the drivers of inflation. And so I think that you could say maybe we'll get a one rate hike in December, but to me, they're gonna be on pause outside of that”at 6:14

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line Capital

  Monetary policy can't fix energy-driven inflation; expects a token December hike and next year's hikes priced out.

  Most inflation comes down to energy, and monetary policy is not a tool to combat energy inflation, as Powell acknowledged earlier this year. Housing is very restrictive, so the Fed can't push too hard without deteriorating the economy and tightening conditions further. Bill balances these points: no hike today, possibly a token hike in December, and he expects hikes next year to get priced out.

  “a lot of this just comes down to being energy. And is monetary policy a tool to combat energy inflation? And I I... It is not. ... we may get a token hike in December, and I see those hikes next year getting priced out.”at 8:11

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  A wait-and-see or go-slow Fed is typically good for stocks on a long-term basis.

  Santoli says a wait-and-see or go-slow Fed is typically fine for markets. When the Fed skips rate hikes, that has generally been good for stocks over the long term. He presents this as the historical pattern that applies to the current meeting.

  “a wait and see fed or a go slow fed typically is okay. If you're skipping meetings on rate hikes, that's generally on a long term basis good for stocks.”at 43:10

US stock market outlook

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Optimism from SK Hynix and Vertiv reports should extend from late October into November.

  Mood has swung from pessimism last Thursday and Friday to optimism. Joe credits two earnings reports, SK Hynix and Vertiv, which are lifting memory stocks and the industrial sector. Lam Research's earnings bottom and the upcoming reports from the mega-caps and semi equipment names should also support the move. Joe thinks these are powerful catalysts for extending optimism through the end of October and into November.

  “those two reports are incredibly powerful catalysts for extending the optimism throughout the end of October into the month of November.”at 21:15

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Market may break higher toward S&P 500 highs as Fed and election clear, aided by AI bounce.

  Santoli says the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with the Fed, PCE and the election as potential clearing events that could let the market make progress and break higher, possibly toward the S&P 500 highs. The hardest-hit parts of the AI trade bounced convincingly over the last couple of days, and hyperscaler credit spreads have tightened. Capital-squeeze fears are dissipating, and the late October to early November seasonal window is strong. He is cautious, though: the worst 15 stocks of October are up about 6.5% in two days, which looks like mean reversion, and he questions whether this is more than a bounce. Fed days during wars have also not been strong for the S&P.

  “I do think things are lined up for where the market should be able to make some hay and break higher, maybe go toward the highs on the S and P 500 because you did have the hardest hit parts of the AI trade bounce on a short term basis relatively convincingly.”at 42:18

Commercial real estate

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  Higher rates are killing commercial real estate and housing after years without such rates.

  Brynn argues that the real economy is feeling the rate increases. Commercial real estate and housing are being hit hard by higher rates. Those sectors are most exposed because they haven't faced rates this high in a long time. That is one reason she thinks the Fed should move slowly and won't deliver many more hikes.

  “At the same time, the real economy, if you look at real estate, you look at, like, commercial real estate, look at housing, these higher rates are just killing those sectors just because we haven't had those rates in so long.”at 6:14

US Treasuries & yields

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Bond market is now price-sensitive, with hedge funds and speculators replacing price-insensitive buyers, so yields will be more volatile.

  Previously the bond market was price-insensitive, driven by liquidity and size, with global central banks and pension funds as marginal buyers. Pension funds have stepped back after satisfying obligations, and global central banks are repatriating capital. Hedge funds, speculators and institutions have replaced them and are more price-sensitive. Joe argues this means more volatility in both directions, citing yields moving aggressively higher over three weeks and then lower over the last two weeks. The Fed needs to understand this changed bond market for 2026 and 2027.

  “What has happened is the bond market has now become price sensitive. The bond market previously was price insensitive. Previously, it was all about liquidity and size... Global central banks are repatriating capital. Who has stepped in now? It's hedge funds. It is speculators.”at 9:53

Private markets for individual investors

• Andy Sieg · Citi

  Private credit and private equity remain key long-term allocation building blocks for clients.

  Private markets have a lot of activity and opportunity that a public-only allocation misses. Clients are in the market for ten to thirty years, so Citi still sees private credit and private equity as key building blocks. The important part is having a diligence team that knows how strong managers operate. Clients are not treating them as trades. Andy says clients have been happy with the returns, and Citi keeps recommending them as part of portfolios.

  “If you just have a public market allocation, you're missing out on a lot of action and a lot of opportunity in the market place... we still see private credit and private equity as, you know, key parts, key building blocks for asset allocation.”at 32:45

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Michael Santoli · CNBC

  Hyperscaler credit spreads have tightened, easing fears of an AI capital squeeze.

  Santoli notes that credit spreads, including on the hyperscalers, have come in appreciably. He reads this as a sign that the fear of a capital squeeze in AI infrastructure funding is dissipating a bit. This supports the bounce in the hardest-hit parts of the AI trade.

  “Credit spreads, including on the hyperscalers, have come in pretty appreciably. So you had a little bit of that that fear about, you know, capital squeeze is is dissipating a little bit.”at 42:18

Gold & precious metals

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line Capital

  Gold has significant upside after holding $4,000 support; expects a strong finish to the year.

  Baruch says gold dipped below the $4,000 psychological level last week but has responded ahead of the Fed. He expects consolidation, then higher prices, with $4,000 as strong support and a breakout above $4,200 bringing momentum. Drivers include the debasement trade returning, dedollarisation, widening fiscal deficits, and central bank and Chinese buying. Gold also rose despite net ETF selling every day that week. He expects seasonal strength from mid-December through January and a strong finish to the year and start to next year. He notes that CTAs have not liquidated and producers are closing shorts, which he sees as positive.

  “Gold got below 4,000... I think gold has some significant upside... I'm looking for gold to trade higher even if it chops around a bit for the next month or so. I expect a strong finish to the year and a strong start next year.”at 43:59

Oil & fuels

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Energy trade is rewarded and drawing CTA capital amid Middle East conflict; gold and silver lag.

  Terranova argues that CTA money is being pushed into the energy trade, which is being rewarded, so CTAs are staying and adding. He says gold and silver look less exciting than in January and February because of the Middle Eastern conflict. Heating oil, gasoline, Brent and WTI are performing well, and that performance is pulling capital away from precious metals.

  “all that capital right now is being pushed towards the energy trade, and they're getting rewarded... Gold and silver doesn't look as exciting as it did in January and February now that you have this Middle Eastern conflict.”at 45:27