Speaker · Updated
Bill Baruch: latest market views
Blue Line Capital
Summary
Bill Baruch is president of Blue Line Capital and Blue Line Futures, a futures and commodities brokerage and trading firm, and a frequent CNBC market commentator.
Chorus has 17 views from Bill Baruch across 3 episodes on CNBC Halftime Report and CNBC Closing Bell since October 19, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Amazon.com, Broadcom, CrowdStrike Holdings and Micron Technology; bearish on Invesco China Technology ETF, Meta Platforms and Entegris.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Amazon.comBullish ·
- BroadcomBullish ·
- CrowdStrike HoldingsBullish ·
- Invesco China Technology ETFBearish ·
- Meta PlatformsBearish ·
- Micron TechnologyBullish ·
- MicrosoftBullish ·
- RTXBullish ·
- SPDR S&P Transportation ETFBullish ·
- EntegrisBearish ·
- WalmartBullish ·
What they talk about most
- Amazon.com · 1
- Broadcom · 1
- CrowdStrike Holdings · 1
- Gold & precious metals · 1
- Invesco China Technology ETF · 1
- Meta Platforms · 1
- Micron Technology · 1
- Microsoft · 1
- RTX · 1
- SPDR S&P Transportation ETF · 1
- US rates & the Fed · 1
- AI chips & semiconductors · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Amazon.comBullish
Amazon's stock can rerate higher if AWS growth reaccelerates and capex timeline is pulled in.
Baruch, who holds Amazon, says the market's focus is AWS growth. Street expects about 38.4% AWS growth against whisper numbers as high as 41%, and he says a print in the low 40s or 42% would push the stock higher. He calls the roughly $220B capex, with free cash flow turning negative, the elephant in the room, and says a credible timeline to pull capex in from 2028 would let the stock rerate. He cites a $496B AI backlog and Trainium and Bedrock as further catalysts. He is not yet worried that a capex dip would signal a warning, and sees the consumer still leaning on Amazon and prime timing normalizing as support. He sees technical support at the end-of-July earnings gap and the 200-day moving average, with the stock able to reach the stated target if the report and response are good.
“But if they can start to show something here that they're gonna bring this in sooner than '28, that's gonna be a really great for the stock, especially given the AI backlog.”at 43:56
Monetary policy can't fix energy-driven inflation; expects a token December hike and next year's hikes priced out.
Most inflation comes down to energy, and monetary policy is not a tool to combat energy inflation, as Powell acknowledged earlier this year. Housing is very restrictive, so the Fed can't push too hard without deteriorating the economy and tightening conditions further. Bill balances these points: no hike today, possibly a token hike in December, and he expects hikes next year to get priced out.
“a lot of this just comes down to being energy. And is monetary policy a tool to combat energy inflation? And I I... It is not. ... we may get a token hike in December, and I see those hikes next year getting priced out.”at 8:11
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
MicrosoftBullish
Microsoft should break out above $5.50 in coming weeks after a strong report.
Bill expects a strong report. He is watching the chart and thinks the stock could break out above $5.50 after the earnings. He expects Azure revenue of about $34.5 billion, which he thinks will be reported to settle the guessing game. He thinks Azure growth could guide above 45%, beating consensus with some whispers higher. Meta's report set a bar where a less bad result from Microsoft would be a tailwind. Microsoft is one of his top five holdings, and he will sit tight and may lean in on a breakout.
“I expect this stock to really break out, get out above $5.50 in the coming weeks on the heels of this report.”at 14:20
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Meta PlatformsBearish
Meta's capex and negative free cash flow are a headwind; he trimmed the position.
Meta's 2026 capex is guided to $135 to $145 billion, with 2027 estimates heading toward $200 billion, and free cash flow is negative. Bill calls the capex story a complete headwind right now. The stock failed to hold above $700, which is now heavy resistance. Meta did not follow through on the Muse news after earnings. Bill cut the position from 2.5% to 1.5% to raise cash for flexibility. He doesn't like the story behind the stock, so he still holds some.
“I think CapEx story is just a complete headwind right now. A 135,000,000,000 to 145,000,000,000 is what they're looking at for 2026 CapEx, and then some of the estimates for 2027 are up towards $200,000,000,000.”at 18:26
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Micron TechnologyBullish
Memory pricing stays at least stable through 2030; Baruch is a long-run believer in Micron.
Baruch's firm trimmed 50 bps of Micron because it was more than a 5% position. He still sees memory pricing continuing its trajectory and staying at least stable through 2030, and calls himself a long-run believer. Clients who bought before 2025 have a cost basis around $70, so gains are large. The trim is framed as risk management within a semis overweight that is being reduced ahead of the Fed and midterms, not as a change in the fundamental view.
“we still see memory pricing. It's gonna be... Continue this trajectory... at least stable through 2030. We're a long run believer in this name.”at 37:57
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
BroadcomBullish
Broadcom has reclaimed key $333 support and should keep rising off recent lows despite the trim.
Baruch trimmed 50 bps of Broadcom as a risk-management step, not because he is bearish. He points out that the stock is back above key support at 333 and that its response to yesterday's trading off the lows looks good. He expects the move to continue pretty well, while acknowledging the firm is reducing its overweight in semis heading into the Fed and midterms.
“it's back above, key support three thirty three... We like what it... The way it's looking in yesterday's response to... Off those lows, I think, should continue pretty well.”at 38:39
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
CrowdStrike HoldingsBullish
CrowdStrike and cybersecurity will keep doing very well; need for cybersecurity will grow.
Baruch trimmed CrowdStrike because it had grown to nearly a 4% position and is a more volatile name, so the trim is about sizing. He says he loves the company and the trajectory of need for cybersecurity, and expects that need to grow. He thinks CrowdStrike and cybersecurity will continue to do very well. The trim is framed as creating flexibility into the Fed and midterms.
“I think CrowdStrike and cybersecurity are gonna continue to do very well... We love the trajectory of the need for cybersecurity. We only think that's going to grow.”at 39:05
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Invesco China Technology ETFBearish
China tech ETF CQQQ has been a dog; China memory competition did not materialise, so it was cut.
CQQQ was held in the tactical ETF model as a hedge against the firm's large overweight in semis. The thesis was that China might bring competition in memory. That did not happen, and the ETF has lagged all year. Baruch admits the call was wrong and says it is okay to be wrong, so the position was cut and the money moved to transports.
“We looked at CQQQ as a little bit of a hedge... as China may have been and brought some competition in the memory space. That did not turn out to be true, and this thing has been a dog all year long.”at 40:54
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
SPDR S&P Transportation ETFBullish
Transports are in a secular bull market; equal-weight XTN is the preferred way to play it.
Baruch views transports as being in a secular bull market. They have pulled back from highs but are retesting prior-year highs over the last two years. He moved money from CQQQ into XTN, an equal-weight transport index, rather than IYT, which is heavy in rails and Uber. He cites strong US growth as a tailwind and wants transport exposure in the portfolio tactically.
“We think the transports are in a secular bull market. Transports have pulled back from the highs. They're retesting their prior year highs for the last two years.”at 41:22
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Gold has significant upside after holding $4,000 support; expects a strong finish to the year.
Baruch says gold dipped below the $4,000 psychological level last week but has responded ahead of the Fed. He expects consolidation, then higher prices, with $4,000 as strong support and a breakout above $4,200 bringing momentum. Drivers include the debasement trade returning, dedollarisation, widening fiscal deficits, and central bank and Chinese buying. Gold also rose despite net ETF selling every day that week. He expects seasonal strength from mid-December through January and a strong finish to the year and start to next year. He notes that CTAs have not liquidated and producers are closing shorts, which he sees as positive.
“Gold got below 4,000... I think gold has some significant upside... I'm looking for gold to trade higher even if it chops around a bit for the next month or so. I expect a strong finish to the year and a strong start next year.”at 43:59
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
RTXBullish
RTX is a high-quality defense name; Baruch is putting half his raised cash into it.
Baruch is putting half of the cash the firm raised into RTX. He calls it a high-quality defense name. He points out that the stock is back above its 200-day moving average this week, which supports the entry.
“with the cash that we raised, we're putting half of that to RTX. High quality defense name. It's back above the 200 moving average this week.”at 47:08
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
WalmartBullish
Walmart has technical strength and margin expansion from membership fees; Sam's Club and grocery reach take share from Amazon.
Walmart has moved above its 200-day moving average, which Bill reads as technical strength. About 30% of its orders are same-day, and it charges elevated membership fees, which should expand margins. Sam's Club is a Costco competitor that trades at a cheaper multiple than Costco, and Walmart reaches 94% of the US population within a three-hour window. Bill sees Walmart taking share from Amazon's core business, so he sees upside. He added the stock around Labor Day and has been adding since.
“But last week, it got above its two hundred day moving average. We like the technical strength. ... The Sam's Club unit is definitely a Costco competitor that you're getting as an option that trades at a cheaper multiple than Costco, but they reached 94% of The US population in the three hour window.”at 40:30
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
The AI trade is in early innings despite tarnished momentum; he is trimming at the margins, not exiting.
Bill still believes the AI trade is early. Momentum weakened over the past two weeks after Nasdaq 100 record highs. An OpenAI revenue shortfall hit the group hard. Then a stronger-than-expected CPI print led to a partial unwind of foreign investment in US tech, which carried unhedged currency risk as the dollar moved. He says this will not kill the AI trade. The fund is still overweight semiconductor manufacturers and core hyperscalers but is trimming at the margins and managing risk in case the trade keeps deteriorating.
“So we still believe the AI trade is in the early innings, but we cannot deny that some momentum has been tarnished over the last two weeks.”at 41:54
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Remains overweight core hyperscalers as the AI trade is still early, despite recent momentum loss.
Bill keeps core hyperscalers in the overweight alongside semiconductor manufacturers. His view rests on the AI trade being in early innings. The recent selloff came from an OpenAI revenue shortfall and then a hotter CPI, which pushed some foreign money out of US tech. He does not think this undermines the hyperscaler position, but he is trimming at the margins.
“We still like the overweight semi manufacturers and core hyperscalers, ... but we want to be trimming at the margins.”at 42:18
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
Remains overweight semiconductor manufacturers, trimming only at the margins after recent weakness.
The fund is overweight semiconductor manufacturers because it still sees the AI trade as early. Recent weakness after the OpenAI revenue shortfall and a hotter CPI print, plus an unwind of foreign investment in US tech, led it to trim some positions. It does not see this as a reason to exit the group, and it is managing risk so it can reduce exposure gradually if the trade keeps deteriorating.
“We still like the overweight semi manufacturers and core hyperscalers, ... but we want to be trimming at the margins.”at 42:18
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
Arm HoldingsUncertain
Sold Arm as the smallest, easiest trim; likes the CPU story but the stock has fallen sharply.
Arm was a 60 basis point position that the fund treated as a call option with no expiration. Bill sold it as a risk-management trim while the AI trade is under pressure. He still likes the CPU story, in which Arm is moving its business into that segment. The stock has fallen well below its high for the year, and he expects it to test a level it previously broke below. Overall the view is mixed: the thesis is intact, but the position was exited as part of managing risk.
“ARM was our smallest position. Was the easiest one to pull the trigger on. A 60 basis point position. We looked at it as a call option with no expiration date, ... We like the CPU story, which is moving its business into there, but the stock has fallen quite a bit from its high of the year.”at 42:51
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
EntegrisBearish
Sold Entegris; despite expected pricing power, weak technicals make it not a must-own name.
Entegris is a supply chain materials and packaging company that Bill expected to gain better pricing power in this environment. Combined with technical weakness, he concluded it is not a must-own name, so he sold it as part of managing risk around the AI trade. The argument is mainly about the stock's technical and fundamental setup relative to alternatives in the portfolio.
“they're strong focus in the supply chain, materials, and packaging. Thought they'd gain better pricing power in this environment, but combined with the technical weakness, I think it's not a must own name.”at 43:16
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Halftime Report · 2 episodes
- CNBC Closing Bell · 1 episode
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