Closing Bell: 10/29/26

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 21 speakers in other episodes, 16 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Mark Mahaney · Evercore ISIBullish

  Amazon needs 40%+ AWS growth and near-40% margins; free cash flow revisions likely positive, bullish into print.

  Mahaney says Amazon probably needs to deliver 40%-plus AWS growth and hold AWS margins near the roughly 40% reported last quarter, with a healthy backlog increase like Azure and Google Cloud showed. He expects all three to come through and thinks free cash flow revisions are more likely positive than negative. If so, he sees a lot of upside in the stock; if not, the stock stays where it is. He is not certain of the outcome but leans toward a good print.

  “They probably need to do 40% plus AWS growth and show that AWS margins, are close to 40% last quarter, stay at that same level.”at 3:34

• Mark Mahaney · Evercore ISIBullish

  Amazon has financed its AI build-out; no equity raise needed, so capital needs are a positive catalyst.

  Mahaney says hyperscaler free cash flow expectations have swung sharply: the view at the start of the year was about $200B of positive free cash flow next year, and it is now about $100B negative. Amazon raised roughly $100B of debt over the last twelve months, and he thinks its planners have already solved for the investment needs over the next 12 to 24 months. Amazon has not sold equity since its 1995 IPO and dislikes dilution, and he expects it can cover needs through debt markets if required. He would treat any sign of additional capital needs as a negative catalyst, but he currently expects the financing to be solved.

  “Amazon doesn't do equity raises. The last time they did was at their IPO twenty six years ago... They raised a 100,000,000,000 over the last twelve months. ... my guess is that they have financially solved for it.”at 5:22

• Mark Mahaney · Evercore ISIBullish

  Agentic shopping unlikely to pull Prime households from Amazon if it keeps price, selection and convenience.

  Mahaney accepts the narrative that personalized AI bots could become the starting point for shopping and says it will grow in the market. He argues Amazon wins on price, selection and convenience and has a loyal Prime base, so it is highly unlikely an agentic experience pulls Prime households away. He notes Amazon still needs to improve Rufus and Alexa shopping and build its own agentic offering. If it keeps pushing those three levers, he sees no agent-to-commerce risk to Amazon, though he acknowledges it is possible.

  “I think it's highly unlikely that an agentic experience is gonna pull people away from prime... I don't think there's an agent to commerce risk to Amazon.”at 11:27

• Stephanie Link · Hightower AdvisorsBullish

  Amazon's 17x multiple for fast-growing AWS is attractive; expects AWS growth and margins to deliver.

  Link says Amazon has beaten consensus in 12 of the last 14 quarters, an 86% beat rate, so she expects a fine quarter. AWS drives about 60% of operating income and she expects operating margins of roughly 39-40%. She points to Azure at 48% and Google Cloud at 103% with strong backlogs, and expects AWS growth in the low 40s versus 37% last quarter. The stock is down 13% from August highs and up only 6% year to date, trading at 17 times earnings. She finds that attractive for a business with a large growing piece, though she notes there are many moving parts.

  “It's trading at 17 times, 17 times for 60% of the business that is gonna grow in the low forties to me is very attractive.”at 12:12

• Bill Baruch · Blue Line CapitalBullish

  Amazon's stock can rerate higher if AWS growth reaccelerates and capex timeline is pulled in.

  Baruch, who holds Amazon, says the market's focus is AWS growth. Street expects about 38.4% AWS growth against whisper numbers as high as 41%, and he says a print in the low 40s or 42% would push the stock higher. He calls the roughly $220B capex, with free cash flow turning negative, the elephant in the room, and says a credible timeline to pull capex in from 2028 would let the stock rerate. He cites a $496B AI backlog and Trainium and Bedrock as further catalysts. He is not yet worried that a capex dip would signal a warning, and sees the consumer still leaning on Amazon and prime timing normalizing as support. He sees technical support at the end-of-July earnings gap and the 200-day moving average, with the stock able to reach the stated target if the report and response are good.

  “But if they can start to show something here that they're gonna bring this in sooner than '28, that's gonna be a really great for the stock, especially given the AI backlog.”at 43:56

Sports, betting & prediction markets

• Nicole Polinross · Goldman Sachs

  Sports investing is growing fast; private equity deals in sports rose from 50 in 2018 to 192 in 2025.

  Polinross says Goldman's interest in sports investing has been tremendous since it started focusing on the area in 2018. Institutional capital shows the activity: there were 50 private equity deals in 2018 and 192 in 2025. That reflects rising interest and valuations, and requires more capital solutions. Clients from family offices to those seeking uncorrelated assets are all interested.

  “In 2018, there were 50 private equity deals. In 2025, there were a 192.”at 30:17

• Mark Lasry · Avenue Capital Group

  Sports team valuations will keep rising as sports becomes an asset class with more capital chasing few teams.

  Lasry says valuations have risen 20 to 25 times from when he first invested, and he was seen as wrong to do so then. He argues sports has become an asset class, with more people getting involved over the next five or ten years. As more capital flows in, valuations should keep rising, because the supply of teams is far smaller than the demand from investors.

  “Valuations have gone up 20, 25 times from where I invested... it's become an asset class... then you're gonna start continuously valuations go up because there'll be more capital there. But the supply side dwarfs right now, the demand side.”at 32:55

• Nicole Polinross · Goldman Sachs

  Sports team valuations still have room to rise, depending on whether investors chase growth or mature leagues.

  Polinross argues that the high valuations are not illogical. Some investors focus on growing businesses, such as women's sports, where profitability is strong for many WNBA teams, while others prefer mature, fully valued leagues such as the NFL. She says models based on those investors suggest there is room to go, and that creative financing from private banking is giving more investors exposure to the ecosystem.

  “The models would say based on those investors that there is room to go.”at 35:24

• Nicole Polinross · Goldman Sachs

  Investor capacity for live sports is limited, so sports investments will compete and not all will succeed.

  Polinross argues that live sports are an attractive asset, but that audiences have finite time, asking how many hours one can spend at live sports or watching a game. She concludes that competition among sports investments will happen naturally, that the market will sort out which investments are most meaningful and have the most opportunity to succeed, and that not every investment will succeed.

  “But there is capacity. How many hours can you spend at live sports or watching a game? So there is a bit of competition, that will happen naturally.”at 37:08

US stock market outlook

• Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas

  Market is rotating within equities, not out of them; breadth strong with money staying invested.

  Verrone points to the Nasdaq falling about 150 basis points while about 30% of S&P stocks hit 20-day highs and advancers beat decliners two to one. He concludes that money is not leaving the asset class, but rotating within it. He notes the rotation looks more defensive than earlier in the year, with staples, health care and utilities leading, and that it has happened as US 10-year yields fell 37 basis points off their high without re-catalysing the purely cyclical parts of the market.

  “Money does not wanna leave the asset class here. It's staying within. It's rotating within.”at 13:39

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Market rally is broadening beyond defensives, with many sectors growing earnings; not just a defensive move.

  Link says about half the S&P 500 has reported, with roughly 25% overall earnings growth, and that energy, tech, materials, industrials and financials are all participating. She argues the market is broader than a defensive rotation. She points out that with communication services and tech down about 2% and Google down 13%, the S&P would have fallen double digits under old conditions, yet it was only down about 50 basis points and the equal-weight index was flat.

  “we're 50% through on the S and P 500, and we have many different sectors that have actually participated in the 25% overall growth... So it is broader than just being defensive in my mind.”at 15:50

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Avoid a defensive posture; lean into the real economy outside AI, such as industrials, health care and utilities.

  Snipe says the market should not be treated as a broadening into defensives, which does not excite him. He points to 3.4% GDP growth and other economic strength outside AI, including health care and regional banks. He sees dispersion as a possible friend for a portfolio manager, and argues that investors should lean into the real economy and non-AI areas such as industrials, health care and utilities.

  “So I think it's an opportunity to kinda lean into the real economy and all things outside of AI being something to kinda take a look at, whether it's industrials, health care, utilities, you name it.”at 19:41

Banks

• Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas

  Bank leadership shifting from big banks to regionals and small banks; insurance breaking out after three years.

  Verrone argues the leadership change within financials is important. Insurance has been dead money for three years but is now breaking out, with new-high data strongest there. Among banks, the strength has moved away from the big banks to regionals and small community banks. He cites Citigroup and BofA down over the past month, JPMorgan up 2%, and East West Bancorp turning up, and says this is a handoff from the last couple of years of leadership rather than a bearish signal.

  “Even if you look at the banks, the leadership among the banks has evolved. It is not the big banks here. ...It's the regionals and the small community banks.”at 17:19

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Regional bank improvement is a positive signal for the real economy and the broader market.

  Snipe says the regional banks represent the real economy. He wants to see alternative managers and investment banks participate meaningfully, but regional banks starting to improve, with better forward guidance, is a unique positive signal for the market. He ties this to Chris Verrone's point about leadership moving from big banks to regionals.

  “But to see the regionals, which is the real economy, starting to improve here and have some better guidance going forward, I think that's a that's a unique positive for the market.”at 19:30

US inflation

• Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas

  Disinflationary pressure is building; crack spreads, materials and commodities softening, will surprise consensus into 2027.

  Verrone stitches together several signals: refining crack spreads have peaked and hit three-month lows this week, materials have softened, gold and silver have weakened, and restaurant stocks have turned higher after a commodity-cost pressure seems to abate. Consumer sectors are responding as if high-end yields may be peaking. He thinks this disinflation is what will look very different from consensus as investors look ahead to 2027.

  “as we look ahead to '27, what's gonna look very different than consensus expects? There's some disinflationary pressure starting to build here.”at 15:01

US growth & recession risk

• Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors

  Strong GDP and low claims make the economy strong enough to support cyclical stocks.

  Link cites data released that day: GDP growth of 3.4%, continued very low weekly jobless claims, and core PCE roughly in line with expectations without anything alarming. She says the data was very supportive of cyclical sectors. She also notes the Fed made no change, and that the economy is strong enough to handle the rate outlook she expects.

  “I'm very happy the economy, the data we got today was very much supportive of cyclicals with a GDP of 3.4%”at 16:28

US Treasuries & yields

• Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas

  Yield curve shape is about to change after bull steepening; he has been in the flattener camp all year.

  Verrone says he has been in the curve-flattening camp all year, but yesterday the curve bull-steepened enough that he thinks the view needs to be revisited. Yields are falling, with the 10-year down 37 basis points from its high. He reads this as a possible change in curve shape rather than a one-day move, which matters for how he reads the market's cyclical leadership.

  “We've been in the curve flatter camp, all year. Yesterday, you actually got some bull steepening, and enough so where I think we have to revisit is curve shape, about to change here.”at 20:19

US consumer

• Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas

  Consumer discretionary is quietly acting better than expected despite tight conditions and high rates.

  Verrone notes that a year ago the street expected 2026 to be a great consumer year on tax refunds, rate cuts and stimulus, and few consumer stocks were believed. Now almost nobody is constructive on consumer names for next year, given tighter financial conditions, high oil and high rates. Yet discretionary stocks are quietly acting better, which he thinks demands attention even though the setup looks unfavourable on paper.

  “you can't really find anyone saying anything constructive about consumer for next year... yet quietly discretionary is acting better.”at 20:51

Media, music & entertainment

• Nicole Polinross · Goldman Sachs

  Streaming's rising share of sports media rights should keep lifting team valuations.

  Polinross says streaming platforms already account for about 20% of the media rights space, and that media rights are a big driver of sports valuations. As fans struggle to find games across platforms, she expects streamers to remain a meaningful and growing contributor, which should keep pushing valuations higher.

  “we expect to see growth continue there as well. Today, the streaming platforms are 20% of the media rights space”at 31:06