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What podcasters are saying about US consumer
Summary
In the past 30 days, 58 speakers on 25 finance podcasts discussed US consumer in 92 views. Chorus has followed US consumer since September 23, 2026: 98 views from 60 speakers on 25 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Jeff Snider · 8
- Michael Batnick · 6
- Josh Brown · 5
- Paul Donovan · 4
- Steve Van Metre · 4
- Wolf Richter · 4
- Ben Carlson · 4
- Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak · 3
- Chris Whalen · 3
- Danny Moses · 2
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Nela Richardson · ADP
Bottom-income households are boosting earnings via overtime, not pay; sustaining that spending is questionable.
Richardson argues that base pay is roughly flat at about 3% a year, but earnings for the bottom income quartile are growing at double digits because those workers are putting in more overtime, shift work and extra hours. They are doing this to keep up with higher prices, so spending power is being maintained. She questions whether this can last, since it means working more to outrun inflation, and notes that the top earners' spending depends on the stock market wealth effect.
“everybody's getting about the same amount of base pay. They're getting about 3% from last year... Earnings is how much overtime, how many hours, what the bonuses are. That's where all the action is. And for the people at the bottom of the quartile in terms of income, they are working a whole lot more than everybody else.”at 12:15
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 30th, 2026 ·
Alexander 'Alty' Altmann · Barclays
A financialized economy makes stock declines hit consumer spending fast, creating a real vulnerability.
Alex says retail's stock-market exposure creates a real economic risk. When the S&P fell 20% during last year's tariff shock, consumption visibly dropped over the following two months, a negative wealth effect. Because investors see their balances in real time, unlike the dot-com era, the feedback to spending is fast and strong.
“Retail is the scary one in the sense that because we've got such a financialized economy. Even last year during the tariffs when the S and P fell 20%, there was a visible drop in consumption over the subsequent two months.”at 28:58
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Kevin Hochman · Brinker International
US diners trim add-ons like alcohol and dessert but still keep going out to restaurants.
Hochman describes check management: customers are pulling back on purchases such as alcohol and dessert. They still want to go out to eat, but they buy more of the three-for-me value options or skip dessert. He says the company therefore needs to be there for guests with value offerings that need no coupon or app, which is why price certainty helps it win share.
“customers are pulling back a little bit on all the things that they purchased, whether it's alcohol or dessert. They're literally saying, I still want to go out to eat.”at 20:06
Mad Money with Jim Cramer: Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 10/29/26 ·
Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas
Consumer discretionary is quietly acting better than expected despite tight conditions and high rates.
Verrone notes that a year ago the street expected 2026 to be a great consumer year on tax refunds, rate cuts and stimulus, and few consumer stocks were believed. Now almost nobody is constructive on consumer names for next year, given tighter financial conditions, high oil and high rates. Yet discretionary stocks are quietly acting better, which he thinks demands attention even though the setup looks unfavourable on paper.
“you can't really find anyone saying anything constructive about consumer for next year... yet quietly discretionary is acting better.”at 20:51
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
AI job losses could push about 5% of $19T consumer debt into default, roughly $1 trillion.
There is about $19 trillion of consumer debt outstanding, mostly mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. If AI displaces many white-collar workers, a 5% default rate on that debt over the next two to three years would be about $1 trillion. Gromen says almost nobody is discussing this second-order credit risk, and that a consumer credit default cycle could make 2008 look tame.
“let's pretend 5% of those default as a result of AI, just sometime in the next two years, three years. 5%, that's roughly a trillion dollars.”at 22:09
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Kevin Hassett · White House National Economic Council
Real consumption is up a trillion dollars since Trump took office, about $5,000 per family; consumers are not overstretched.
He argues that inflation-adjusted consumption is the best measure of household wellbeing, and it is up about $1 trillion since Trump took office, roughly $5,000 per family. He concedes some pockets of higher prices, such as gasoline, while beef prices are falling. He says consumption depends on confidence and income, and cites initial jobless claims at their lowest level ever. He disputes the claim that wages are falling behind inflation and says bank data show households are not running runaway debt. He expects Census data to show real incomes up about $2,500 per family by the end of the year.
“so real consumption since president Trump took office. It's a trillion dollars higher. That's $5,000 per family.”at 3:38
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
Andrew Dubinsky · UBS
US consumer spending will moderate toward roughly 2% growth, not slow sharply.
Consumer spending has been growing faster than income, and some of today's monthly data showed slowing. Dubinsky expects some moderation as a result, but not a dramatic slowdown. He expects spending to settle back closer to a roughly 2% pace.
“we do see some moderation in consumer spending because it has been growing at a faster clip than income... we're not looking for a dramatic slowdown but just something back closer to the 2% or so range.”at 5:45
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: FOMC reflections & US economic update ·
Dan Nathan · RiskReversal Media
Lower-income consumers are strained by cumulative inflation, a K-shaped economy with weak lower-end spending.
Nathan says GDP growth is coming largely from AI spending, and that the lower end of the K-shaped economy is dealing with the accumulated effects of inflation. He notes that Bessent and Powell have made similar points. He concludes there is a real problem for lower-income households even as the upper end benefits from AI-driven growth.
“then you gotta get back to the K and the lower end of the K is dealing with the accumulative effects of inflation.”at 42:39
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
Danielle DiMartino Booth · QI Research
Companies like Whirlpool and Sherwin-Williams report no pricing power as Americans can't afford higher prices.
Whirlpool and Sherwin-Williams are saying they lack pricing power. Margins are being squeezed because Americans cannot afford to pay up, so these companies are cutting costs and firing people. She argues this shows the inflation debate should move past sourcing, and that weakness in household demand and rising layoffs are the story.
“We're gonna fire more people as a result because we have to cost... Cut cost because our margins are getting squeezed because Americans cannot afford to pay up.”at 14:49
The Julia La Roche Show: #426 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Could Slam the Economy Into Recession — Fed Day Reaction ·
Danny Moses · Moses Ventures
A market drop would hurt high-end consumer spending and risk stagflation.
Danny says stock market wealth now exceeds home equity, unlike in 2006, and the stock market is a large factor in the economy. Earnings are concentrated in a few S&P companies, which he links to a K-shaped economy and a K-shaped market. He argues the underappreciated left tail is a broad market decline, from oversupply, valuation or other causes, which would hit high-end consumer spending. That slowdown would combine with persistent inflation into stagflation, and would reduce tax receipts.
“And I think if the market does drop, I'm not saying it's going to, but if it did, [I] think the knock on effects from the high end consumer would be notable.”at 43:49
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
US consumer resilience should persist; signs of fraying are slight but it is less dependable than before.
Donovan expects US consumer resilience to remain evident in the third-quarter GDP data. He says signs of that resilience fraying have been very slight so far, but qualifies this by saying the consumer is perhaps not as dependable as it once was.
“The resilience of The US consumer is still likely to be in evidence. Signs of that resilience fraying have been very slight so far, though it is perhaps not quite as dependable as it once was.”at 2:18
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Mundanity upon mundanity' ·
Tim Melvin · Community Bank Investor
The K-shaped economy's lower leg is growing as inflation, energy and housing costs squeeze the bottom half.
Melvin says the economy is bifurcated, with the bottom leg of the K getting larger. The bottom 50% of Americans are feeling inflation, energy prices and housing affordability. Grocery prices keep rising consistently, and energy has been running much higher. That takes a bite out of discretionary spending, including Las Vegas travel.
“we have a bifurcated economy. Everybody knows the k shaped economy. Right? Well, the bottom leg of the [K] getting a little larger.”at 20:28
The Acquirers Podcast: Tim Melvin: Finding Value Where Wall Street Isn’t Looking ·
Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury
Consumer spending is strong even though consumer surveys look gloomy.
He says consumer surveys can look gloomy, but consumer behavior is quite strong and corporate behavior is too. He credits tax policy, trade policy, energy policy and regulatory policy, including the One Big Beautiful Bill's business expensing and the president's tax cuts on tips, overtime and Social Security. He says the midterm agenda is largely baked in.
“consumer surveys can be a little gloomy, but the consumer behavior is quite strong. Corporate behavior is actually quite strong.”at 21:04
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Jim Vanek · Apollo Global Management
Higher-for-longer rates will hit consumers and rate-sensitive housing and building products, not yet visible in trailing data.
Trailing fundamentals are still strong across revenue growth, EBITDA, defaults and ratings. Spreads and equity multiples, however, imply the market expects higher rates to hurt consumers and subsectors that depend on cheap debt, with housing and building products cited as examples. Vanek says this will start to show up in fundamentals for certain business models. He adds that the high-rate period has lasted long enough to produce negative changes in consumer behavior, and that it is unclear when rates will come down.
“It's obvious that the market is suggesting in spreads and in equity multiples and in levels that higher rates are gonna negatively impact the consumer, that they're gonna negatively impact certain subsectors that depend on a lower cost of debt capital.”at 15:02
Apollo: The Allocation and the Daily Spark: Direct Lending: Strong Fundamentals, Shifting Dynamics ·
Jeremy Zirin · UBS Asset Management
Overall US consumer spending is healthy, but lower-income households are under pressure from prices and financing costs.
Early bank results suggest overall consumer spending remains healthy, which Zirin names as one of the items he is watching most closely this earnings season. He qualifies that by noting that higher prices and higher financing costs continue to pressure household budgets, particularly for lower-income consumers. The consumer is one of the three things he is watching as the earnings season unfolds, alongside margins and AI spending.
“Early results from the [banks] suggest that overall consumer spending is healthy, but higher prices and financing costs continue to pressure household budgets, particularly for lower income consumers.”at 5:40
UBS On-Air: House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management ·
Constance Hunter · Economist Intelligence Unit
Card debt tracks consumption, but delinquencies are rising among a significant stretched cohort.
Measured against overall consumption, credit card debt and spending are growing in line, so the aggregate ratio is not alarming. The concern is that delinquencies are starting to tick up. The stress sits among a significant cohort of households and consumers who are really stretched.
“I think you need to look at credit card debt and credit card expenditures as a ratio of overall consumption. ... it's really in line. But then if we look at where our delinquency is starting to tick up... And there's a significant cohort of them.”at 8:01
Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
Most US households spend beyond their means, a structural problem that will cause economic trouble.
Grandich says that across a wide spread of Americans, from professionals to athletes, seven out of ten families live at least one lifestyle above their finances, which is only sustainable by spending more than they earn. He links this to the economy by arguing that until Americans spend less than they make, the US will keep facing problems, regardless of how bad people say the country is.
“Seven out of 10 families... they live at least one lifestyle above their finances. And the only way you can do that is you're spending more than you make.”at 44:18
The David Lin Report: China's Tech Stocks Crash 40%: Is Wall Street Next? | David Woo ·
Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management
US consumer spending stays resilient, led by younger and wealthier households, with credit performance steady.
Batnick uses Bank of America card data to argue spending is holding up. Entertainment card transactions rose 7% year over year and dollar volume rose 13%. Travel transactions rose 4% and dollar volume 7%. Retail transactions rose 6% and dollar volume 5%. He says some of the gap reflects inflation. He thinks much of the strength comes from young people: Gen Z and millennials rose from 20% of American Express spending in 2019 to 38% today. He backs this with Synchrony's CEO saying consumers keep spending through higher gas prices and weak confidence, and with its credit data showing net charge-offs flat to down, which he says is main-street consumer data rather than Amex's premium customer base.
“the transaction number is up 7% year over year, but the dollar volume is up 13%.”at 35:21
Animal Spirits: Why Baby Boomers Have All the Money (EP. 488) ·
Steve Grasso · Grasso Global Inc.
US consumers are getting stretched, but they are still spending, just on different things.
Grasso says consumers are getting stretched right now, and that tax refunds and other support have not fully offset the pressure. He argues people are still spending, including on gas and cards, so the stretched-consumer story is being conflated with a no-spending story.
“When you think about the consumer, they're getting stretched right now. Right? ... I think people are conflating the two stories that the consumer is strapped, therefore they're not spending.”at 24:49
CNBC Fast Money: All Clear For Markets?... And What To Expect Out Of Fed Rate Decision Tomorrow 10/27/26 ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Higher mortgage rates limit home-equity borrowing, reducing money flowing through the economy and spending.
Higher rates mean homeowners cannot tap their home equity as cheaply. Fewer people refinance or take second mortgages, which reduces money circulating in the economy. People then spend less than they would have. Rates still slow the broader economy, though the fixed-rate product mutes the effect on existing owners.
“it has meant that people aren't able to tap their home equity as cheaply as they could have before. So with fewer people refinancing or taking on second mortgages, that means that there is less money flowing around in the economy and people aren't able to spend as much as they would have before.”at 14:18
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Craig Fuller · FreightWaves
US consumer goods volumes are slowing even as industrial freight expands.
Craig uses freight data, which he says reflects real demand rather than dollar-inflated spending, to show consumer goods volumes slowing while industrial categories expand. He argues the consumer is now a concern after being the main driver of the post-COVID rebound. Volume of goods, not dollars, is what he measures, since inflation inflates spending without moving more product.
“Consumption and consumer activities and consumer categories is slowing. And we know that because freight data doesn't lie.”at 2:22
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Lyn Alden · Lyn Alden Investment Strategy
Deficit spending has created a two-speed economy: asset holders gain while others pay higher rates.
Alden says structural deficits create recipients and others who indirectly pay the cost, through higher rates that make a first home harder to buy. She points to record-high stock prices alongside record-low consumer sentiment as evidence of a large divide between asset holders and non-asset holders. She says the divide remains unusually large even though sentiment has recovered from its lows.
“there are recipients on some sides of them, And then there are others that are not on recipients, but they're kind of paying the cost. For example, higher rates and a new family looking to to buy their first home.”at 29:40
Wealthion: The Treasury’s Gold Revaluation Play | Lyn Alden ·
Larry McDonald · The Bear Traps Report
Rising oil, fuel and Treasury yields have already dealt the US consumer a roughly $300B blow.
The 12-month Treasury yield is up about 100 basis points over six months, and oil, gasoline and diesel are up 60-120%. He says that combined shock has already taken about $300B out of consumer spending power, and that this is why restaurant and home-improvement names are down 30-35%.
“we've already had a $300,000,000,000 punch to the face of The US consumer.”at 6:20
Wealthion: Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year ·
Matthew Boss · JPMorgan
Holiday consumer spending should be strong after accelerating growth through back-to-school and into October.
Chase card data shows consumer spending growing about 6% year over year, accelerating from August into September and holding mid-single-digit growth through October. Back-to-school strength has historically been the lead indicator for holiday spending. Despite weak consumer confidence readings, the building blocks, such as low-income employment, support a solid holiday.
“I actually think it's gonna be a good holiday. ... Chase credit card data points to roughly 6% expenditure growth on a year over year basis. That accelerated in the month of August into September”at 30:44
Matt Reed · Fidelity Investments
Consumer spending and credit are holding up despite weak sentiment, anchored by strong employment and wage growth.
Consumer spending and consumer credit keep holding up in the data, which looks contradictory alongside weak sentiment. Matt credits resilient consumers who are financially savvy and responsible. Employment has stayed strong and wages are still growing, and job loss is the biggest income shock for most consumers, so the data points to a resilient consumer.
“consumer spending and consumer credit continues to hold up well from the data that we've got.”at 9:32
Fidelity Viewpoints: 10.27.26 - Why a recession may be farther away than you think ·
Jake Weinstein · Fidelity Investments
Aggregate US consumers remain resilient, supported by asset wealth and a job market that has rebounded.
Some people are struggling, especially in certain sectors and occupations, and higher rates or gas prices hurt many households. In aggregate, though, consumers keep spending and wage growth is positive relative to inflation. Equity gains and home prices that have not fallen keep people with assets feeling wealthier, and especially higher-income households keep consuming. The job market has also rebounded, with over half a million jobs created in professional services and construction, which supports spending. Aggregate consumption is what drives corporate earnings and margins.
“So as far as the consumer right now, one thing that's been huge has been the fact that they've been super resilient in the face that market's going higher.”at 11:51
Fidelity Viewpoints: 10.27.26 - Why a recession may be farther away than you think ·
Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
Most American families live above their means, spending more than they earn, which must reverse.
Based on what he sees across a wide range of Americans, from professionals to hourly workers to professional athletes, seven out of ten families live at least one lifestyle above their finances. The only way to do that is to spend more than they earn. He argues that until Americans spend less than they make, the country will keep having problems.
“Seven out of 10 families we see... they live at least one lifestyle above their finances. And the only way you can do that is you're spending more than you make.”at 44:18
The David Lin Report: The 'Unravelling' That Triggers Biggest Market Reset Ever | Peter Grandich ·
Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial
A K-shaped economy: wealthy spending is propping things up, but it is at risk of pulling back.
Snider argues the economy has become K-shaped. Premium and business travel have held up because wealthy consumers are still spending, supported by the stock market near record highs. Those at the bottom of the K cannot absorb higher costs, and airlines serving them are being squeezed. Once wealthy customers tighten their spending, they will cut airline and other discretionary purchases. The result would be a substantial downturn in spending, which would push businesses into bigger adjustments.
“as wealthy individuals start to spend less on airlines, they're also going be spending less on other discretionary forms as well.”at 18:05
Eurodollar University: Airlines Just Sent a TERRIFYING Warning About the Economy ·
Steve Van Metre · Steven Van Metre Financial
Strong retail sales headlines overstate consumer strength; the spending is narrow and gasoline-driven.
Van Metre argues that outsized retail sales prints are heavily skewed toward gasoline, yet Wall Street reads the headline as proof that consumers are resilient. He says the broader spending base is narrower than the headline suggests. Once consumers in the US and abroad start to pull back, credit spreads will start to matter, because bondholders will begin to doubt that debt gets repaid.
“Wall Street looks at the headline numbers. It's, look, everything's... okay. Consumers are spending. They're resilient.”at 19:15
Eurodollar University: Airlines Just Sent a TERRIFYING Warning About the Economy ·
Lindsay Owens · Groundwork Collaborative
In inflation, firms raise prices rather than cut costs, testing how much affluent shoppers will pay.
Owens argues the US is in an inflationary period in which firms cannot run an aggressive cost-cutting strategy, because their own costs are rising. Pricing is therefore where companies have turned, and they are pushing it hard. She ties this to a K-shaped economy, noting CEOs discuss it on earnings calls, and says firms are testing the limits of what people with disposable income will pay. She points to the Broadway cocktail price and the StubHub experiment as examples.
“I think we're in an inflationary period. This is not a period in which you can run an aggressive cost cutting play. Your costs are going up as a business. And I think pricing is where companies have headed, and they're really pushing the envelope there.”at 19:50
Odd Lots: AI Agents Are Already Changing the Price of Goods ·
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