Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses

Anthropic

Across the shows: 68 speakers in other episodes, 73 bullish and 55 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf CapitalUncertain

  Anthropic's S-1 margins beat expectations, but whether it can scale and charge enough for pricing is unresolved.

  Vincent read social-media commentary that Anthropic's S-1 showed margins and costs better than expected, though he expects costs to rise later. He says growth is massive, but the filing does not answer whether Anthropic can scale and get customers to pay the prices needed to make the economics work, so he calls that TBD. He also questions how much of revenue comes from venture-funded companies using AI to scale. He compares this to pets.com in the dot-com era: if those customers burst, growth could slow. He says he is not bearish on AI demand, which he calls seismic, and that pricing power is undetermined.

  “It was better than expectations in terms of the margins and the costs. The costs are gonna come later. But whatever it is, the growth is absolutely massive. The one thing the [S-1] doesn't answer... are they gonna be able to scale and get people to get charged the amount of money they're gonna be charged to make this all work?”at 18:33

• Danny Moses · Moses VenturesUncertain

  Anthropic's IPO economics look shaky, but Wall Street will push the deal through regardless.

  Danny says the math behind Anthropic's IPO needs scrutiny. Long-term build-out plans mean negative free cash flow for a period, even though there are moments of positive FCF. Stock-based comp of about $2bn was excluded from the metrics, and costs are being funded through converts and equity. A Wall Street Journal piece argued that Alphabet and Amazon should not get markup benefit on Anthropic without penalty. He notes the very high private valuations, and calls the circular dependence among participants a big issue. He still expects the IPO to get done because everyone needs it, so the economics come later, and he sees the lockups as not restrictive.

  “Worry about the economics later. Get this thing public first.”at 22:45

Transocean

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf CapitalBullish

  Transocean is a long-term holding; industry consolidation through its Polaris deal is attractive.

  Vincent says his family office has benefited from energy holdings this year, and that Transocean is one of several idiosyncratic names they like based on bottom-up company profiles for the longer term. He notes Transocean is about a month or two from completing its acquisition of Polaris. He says they tend to like stories where there is industry consolidation. The transcript cuts off during this passage, so the full case is partial.

  “One I mentioned last night was Transocean... in probably in the cusp about a month or two from now of completing their acquisition with Polaris. And we tend to love stories where there's industry consolidation”at 34:32

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 55 speakers in other episodes, 14 bullish and 54 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf CapitalUncertain

  CoreWeave is a GPU lessor; the model works only if GPUs last longer and unsecured capital stays cheap.

  Vincent says he studied CoreWeave and concluded it is essentially a lessor, like those renting out planes, rigs or containers, but with a much larger addressable market due to AI growth. The model can work, but it requires GPUs to last longer than people think, which he does not know, and cheap cost of capital. CoreWeave has cheap capital on a secured basis but not on an unsecured basis. The firm had been short with tight stops, then covered as the sentiment became uniformly negative. He says covering does not mean the business model is wrong.

  “Entities that just buy a piece of equipment like a plane or a rig or a container. Take it and then rent it to somebody else. And that's essentially what CoreWeave does for a living. It's a lessor.”at 45:27

US rates & the Fed

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Policymakers avoid adverse price discovery, so implicit bailouts keep elevated markets propped up.

  Vincent's lesson from the GFC is that the Fed and policymakers do not want material adverse price discovery. Every time markets wobbled, in fixed income or equities, there was an explicit or implicit bailout, including during COVID. He says the implications are profound: markets have become elevated, and investors have a mindset that markets can't go down. He sees the current wobble as a test of whether policymakers will intervene if AI funding requires more capital at higher interest costs or if capital becomes less available.

  “Policymakers in the Federal Reserve really don't want material adverse price discovery. ... every time the market was beginning to wobble... there was some form of explicit or... implicit... bailout that helped markets prop up.”at 10:50

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  The Fed likely hikes once more by December, then stops; not three or four hikes.

  Danny says the Street is pricing about a 75 to 80 percent chance of a hike at the last meeting in December, and that the Fed will not raise tomorrow. He does not see the Fed raising three to four times in the next year. He expects at most one more raise, and possibly one and done at the end of the year. He says the long-term yields are already tightening credit conditions for Warsh, and he expects Warsh to stick with the view that AI is deflationary. He also points to Treasury bill issuance as a constraint on the Fed, and says he is dovish overall.

  “We probably are gonna get one more raise here and then not gonna try to predict oil, whatever.”at 49:33

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  The Fed will do fewer than three or four hikes; one more is likely.

  Vincent takes the under on the three to four hikes the Street prices. He thinks the Fed will get one more hike, and Warsh would like to add one more. He argues that ending the war would ease inflationary pressures and let the Fed pivot away from multiple hikes to something much less, which he would view as positive. He expects no rate cuts. He also notes Warsh wants the Fed to be less of a factor and offer less forward guidance until a crisis, and that Treasury Secretary Bessent has more influence on the Fed than usual. Fiscal and debt issues and the large share of wealth tied to the S&P limit how hawkish the Fed can be.

  “I'll take the under well on three or four. I do think we get one more, or he would like to get one more in there”at 51:49

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  Hyperscalers can curb AI spending, by choice or because they cannot raise capital at decent prices.

  Danny says he and his team have argued that hyperscalers can turn off the spigot on AI spending. They could do this voluntarily or be forced by an inability to raise capital at acceptable prices. He notes that Oracle's investor day guidance on capex and free cash flow was well received, which he sees as taking some stress out of AI funding needs. He raises the question of what reduced spending means for suppliers such as Nvidia, which fell on the news.

  “We have been saying that the hyperscalers have the ability to turn off the spigot, whether willingly or by other forces such as their inability to raise capital [at] decent prices.”at 1:31

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  A $500bn data-center securitization mixes dot-com and GFC dynamics; balance sheets now matter.

  Danny points to a roughly $500bn securitization venture that would securitize data centers and GPUs, involving Blackstone, BlackRock, Nvidia, Goldman, Brookfield and others. He sees it as a combination of dot-com excess and GFC-style leverage: the risk is being packaged and moved, and it is hard to monitor. He notes that Larry Fink was excited about product innovation like mortgage-backed securities, which unsettles him. He says no one is arguing this is not a great secular trade, but balance sheets are starting to matter, which he views as healthy.

  “this $500,000,000,000 securitization venture of securitizing data centers, GPUs, whatever it might be between Blackstone, BlackRock, NVIDIA, you know, Goldman, Brookfield”at 13:34

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Passive and vol-targeting flows skew markets to momentum and liquid names, creating persistent inefficiencies.

  Vincent argues that market structure is skewed toward long momentum all the time. Passive money flows into cap-weighted indices, and vol-targeting regimes favour momentum on both the long and short sides. These regimes also favour liquid names. Active investors matter less than they used to because they do not move markets through flows. This creates large inefficiencies, but they cannot be arbitraged away day to day. Such mispricings require patience and time, so investors must pick their fights.

  “market structure is skewed towards being long momentum all the time, whether it's the money coming from W2 passive, which is just flowing to cap weighted indices, or the vol targeting regimes”at 5:15

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  Expects more market volatility after midterms, with shutdown odds rising to 37% under a Democratic sweep.

  Danny cites prediction-market odds of a government shutdown rising to 37% from about 20% by December 12. He says that if Democrats win both chambers of Congress, there is a very good chance of such a shutdown. He does not make a call on portfolios, but he thinks markets are in for more volatility than usual. He says the lame-duck session that follows the midterms is underappreciated, and that the period is being overlooked.

  “odds of government shutdown are now 37% from basically 20 on the December 12. ... I think we're in for a little bit of volatility, more volatility than we've had just in general in the markets.”at 26:13

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Current AI boom looks more like the dot-com than the GFC; funding dries up when overvaluation is recognised.

  Vincent sets out a crisis pattern: excessive investment turns into malinvestment, usually funded by debt. A leverage problem follows, and when investors realise the investment is overvalued and funding dries up, the crisis begins. He says he has read many comparisons of today to the GFC or the dot-com. His view is that this feels more like the dot-com, and he is curious whether the AI build-out funding will be available at reasonable interest rates.

  “every potential crisis rhymes. Right? It's usually excessive investment turns into malinvestment, usually funded by debt. A leverage problem ensues.”at 9:59

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  AI capex resembles the dot-com build-out; secular trades turn cyclical through a healthy weeding-out.

  Danny compares the current AI trade to the dot-com bubble, when fiber was wrapped around the earth 100 times and nobody checked the economics. He says the current phase is similar, though he is not equating Lucent and Nortel with the hyperscalers or Nvidia. Both the dot-com and GFC periods occurred during rate-hike cycles, so capital was getting more expensive. He argues that secular growth trades eventually become cyclical, and that this produces a healthy weeding-out process. He also questions how many data centers will be funded, chip prices, and the depreciation life of the equipment.

  “But I'll just note that secular trades eventually become cyclical, and it's a healthy weeding out process.”at 12:22

Private equity

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  PE has drawn the risk outside banks where it cannot be monitored, and needs exits to return capital.

  Danny says private equity firms have attracted the flows since the banks have been constrained by regulation. As a result, a lot of the risk now sits outside the banking system and cannot be monitored. He notes that PE firms need realizations to generate large returns of capital, and that banks need those exits, through IPOs and M&A, to earn fees. He says this makes the system interconnected, with a similar dynamic to how banks' warehouse lines once fed mortgage products before the GFC.

  “But thank goodness that they've been unable to trip on themselves right now. And fortunately or unfortunately, the PE firms got the flows. And so we're sitting again in a situation where a lot of the risk is outside of the banking system instead of inside the banking system, but it can't be monitored.”at 13:05

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Private equity pools funding AI initiatives are where write-downs and defaults would surface first.

  Vincent says there are pockets where banks lend to private equity vehicles, and large brokerage firms also have significant private equity exposure. He believes the private equity pools funding many AI initiatives are where potential write-downs and defaults would appear. He explicitly says he is not calling for this right now. He is simply identifying where he believes the exposure lies.

  “it's really those private equity pools that are funding a lot of the AI initiatives is where we would see potential write downs, defaults. I'm not calling for it right now.”at 16:32

US stock market outlook

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Stocks have risen twelve months after every midterm since 1980, and positioning is light into seasonal strength.

  Vincent cites a social-media stat he could not fully verify: since 1980, market performance twelve months after every midterm election has been positive, which he calls 20 for 20. He notes that in about a century, only two midterm periods from the 1920s saw the market down twelve months later. He admits he cannot explain why. He adds that hedge fund gross and net exposure are low going into a usually good seasonal period, which makes him keep his bearishness in check.

  “I forget the exact stat, but it's out there in social media land... I think since 1980... the performance of the market twelve months out after every midterm election is positive.”at 27:04

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Beaten-down, heavily shorted stocks could explode upside if the war abates; picking names one by one.

  Vincent says the dominant hedge fund vol-targeting regimes trade factors, and the stocks that have underperformed massively were hit by rates, inflation inputs and the dollar. Those names are also very crowded shorts, so they hold stored 'kinetic energy' that can explode upward once those factors reverse, particularly if the war abates (which he says doesn't seem to be the case yet). He is not buying on a blanket basis but name by name, getting entries at levels he would be comfortable owning this year. He expects poor returns over the next one to three months but outsized returns over the year. They are not going all in yet.

  “where we're looking for opportunities is where there's that stored potential kinetic energy of stocks that can really explode to the upside if we get an abatement in the war”at 35:42

Asset managers, brokers & exchanges

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Brokers' main risk is transaction velocity if the AI boom halts, not holding excessive risk.

  Vincent says for brokerage firms he is more worried about transaction velocity if the AI boom comes to a halt. He does not believe they are holding excessive amounts of risk. Big brokers have exposure to private equity, but he thinks the majority of their exposure is through transaction revenue. The risk is mainly lower deal and trading activity rather than balance-sheet losses.

  “for the brokerage firms, I'm more worried about transaction velocity if this thing comes to a halt. I don't believe they're holding on to the excessive amounts of risk.”at 15:49

Banks

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  Bank credit risk is not systemic, but fee income could be, and tough 2027 comps loom.

  Danny says banks have shifted from being valued on book value to being valued on earnings per share, which requires growth. That makes them face tough comparisons in 2027, especially if there is any slowdown. He sees pockets of credit stress here and there but nothing systemic. He notes banks can change risk weights on categories such as software if credit underperforms, creating a chain reaction. He thinks fee revenue could be systemically affected, but credit risk is not.

  “I think fees could be systemic, but credit is not systemic is the way I would kinda put it.”at 18:10

Power demand & the grid

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  Power and grid constraints, not data center approvals, are the bigger AI bottleneck; build pauses may help.

  Danny argues the bigger issue for AI is not data center approvals. Approvals are unlikely in places like Central Park, but the real constraint is the power and grid associated with the data centers. He thinks the current halting of some build-outs is not negative, and may benefit companies by giving them time to work out overall demand. He expects power to remain an issue, and says local races for governors and mayors could make it a problem. Approvals could also be used as an excuse for missed projects.

  “the bigger issue here for AI isn't data center approvals at the moment... It's the power and the grid associated with it. I actually think that this is not a negative thing right now, kind of the halting of some of these data center build outs.”at 23:55

AI regulation & safety

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Midterms carry no AI policy implications since legislation would be hard to pass, even with a Democratic sweep.

  Vincent argues there are no midterm implications for AI because legislation will be hard to pass. Even if Democrats swept both the House and Senate, President Trump would be there to veto anything that passed. He does expect AI to become a bigger political issue over time, tied to job losses, but he does not see the midterms changing the AI legislative outlook.

  “I don't think there are any midterm implications associated with AI because it's gonna be really difficult to pass any legislation, even if the Dems were to sweep the house and the senate. President Trump is still there to veto anything that would be passed.”at 24:54

AI & jobs

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  An AI productivity boom implies job losses, making AI a major political issue into 2027-2028.

  Vincent says he has long argued that a productivity miracle from AI cynically implies an employment problem, because a productivity miracle cannot occur without shedding jobs. He points to Microsoft's reported layoffs of 60,000 people as a shot across the bow, and says a trend of such layoffs would tie into Amodei's memo from February. If that trend develops, he expects AI-driven job losses to become a very heightened political issue in 2027, going into the 2028 election.

  “a productivity miracle associated with AI cynically tells you that we're gonna have an employment issue. ... you don't get a productivity miracle without shedding jobs.”at 25:43

US housing

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  Housing and consumer discretionary names are rented on the long side; tradeable 10-15% bounce, then exit.

  Danny argues housing may be left for dead, with names like Home Depot, and that falling rates could quickly pull money back in. He argues that many consumer discretionary and housing names are only rented on the long side, since no one really believes in them long term. He sees them as a trade that could make 10 to 15 percent before getting out, rather than a long-term hold.

  “some of those consumer discretionary consumer names and housing names are just rented on the long side that no one actually believes in the long term. I could trade that, make 10, 15%, and get out.”at 36:35

Oil & fuels

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  Energy stocks remain attractive: under-owned sector with cleaned-up balance sheets, though higher oil brings demand destruction.

  Danny says the firm has been in energy for years. Energy was a small share of the S&P 500 and was ignored after ESG pressure, while the sector cleaned up its balance sheets, so the stocks looked cheap with oil at $65. He is unsure how long oil stays at around $100 and notes that higher oil is itself the cure for higher oil through demand destruction. He still sees bottom-up value in energy beyond the large caps like Chevron and Exxon, which active managers may be overlooking.

  “We've been in energy for years, mainly post ESG. No one was paying attention to the sector. They cleaned up their act in terms of the balance sheet. Nobody owned them.”at 37:10

US deficit & government debt

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  US will trip the debt ceiling in the first six weeks of 2027.

  Danny says that with the country's deficit issues and global sovereign debt pressure, the US will hit the debt ceiling again early in 2027, when the calendar turns. He says debt is approaching the limit and that the market is not looking ahead to 2027 and 2028.

  “We're gonna turn the calendar. We're gonna trip the debt ceiling, by the way, in the first six weeks of 2027.”at 38:39

Gold & precious metals

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  Gold is still early and will rise sharply on any Fed rate cut, as the firm has held it since under $1,000.

  Danny says the firm has been on the gold trade since it was under $1,000, and that gold is held more by central bank balance sheets than US Treasuries. He thinks worries about fiat currencies and the dollar's decline from the low 70s to the mid-to-high 50s, combined with sovereign debt and deficit issues, keep gold in demand. He expects a slowdown, a Fed pause or even a cut would push gold up sharply. He prefers gold to being short the S&P 500 and says it yields nothing but is a good hedge.

  “The minute you get a whiff of a Fed rate cut, gold is going up a lot.”at 39:11

Credit markets

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Capital availability is the main risk: heavy issuance and refinancing needs clash with Fed tightening.

  Vincent says most cycles end when excessive issuance hits the market, and 2026 has had a lot of that, from SpaceX and Anthropic to debt. He describes the world as a refinancing system with roughly $350-400 trillion of debt that must be refinanced every five to seven years in bulges. A hot economy requires capital for AI expansion and fiscal deficits, but the Fed is tightening, so the two do not match. He does not know how it unwinds: it could resolve favorably as in 1998 or 2007, or the cycle could extend if the war ends and rates, oil and credit spreads fall. He is keeping an open mind over the next year or two.

  “most cycles come to an end when excessive supply of issuance hits the tape. ... And we've had a lot of that so far this year, whether it's SpaceX, Anthropic, as well as the debt.”at 41:13

Middle East & Iran

• Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital

  Ending the war would lower rates, oil and credit spreads, extending the cycle.

  Vincent says the one thing that could extend the current cycle is an end to the war. Ending it would bring down rates, oil and credit spreads, which would support the cycle. He says that is not the case right now, which is why he is keeping an open mind over the coming months. The inflationary forces the economy is seeing, at least partly from the war, would come to an end, giving the Fed room to ease off hikes.

  “The one thing that could happen that could extend this is if we end the war, rates come down, oil comes down, credit spreads come in, and that extends the cycle.”at 42:48

US consumer

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  A market drop would hurt high-end consumer spending and risk stagflation.

  Danny says stock market wealth now exceeds home equity, unlike in 2006, and the stock market is a large factor in the economy. Earnings are concentrated in a few S&P companies, which he links to a K-shaped economy and a K-shaped market. He argues the underappreciated left tail is a broad market decline, from oversupply, valuation or other causes, which would hit high-end consumer spending. That slowdown would combine with persistent inflation into stagflation, and would reduce tax receipts.

  “And I think if the market does drop, I'm not saying it's going to, but if it did, [I] think the knock on effects from the high end consumer would be notable.”at 43:49

US tax & spending policy

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  The tax bill pulled spending forward; pay-fors and health costs will hit from 2027.

  Danny says the tax bill pulled forward a lot of activity and benefits into the current period. He argues that when the calendar flips to 2027, health care costs and other obligations come due, and the pay-fors arrive later. He says the market has enjoyed these pull-forwards and suggests they are not priced in for 2027-28.

  “all the pull forwards came now. And then when we flip the calendar in 2027, health care costs, all those other things... The pay fors are coming later.”at 44:18

US Treasuries & yields

• Danny Moses · Moses Ventures

  Heavy short-dated Treasury maturities will keep short-term rates elevated despite Fed hikes.

  Danny argues that hiking would logically reduce 10-year yields. However, Treasury is issuing short-dated bonds, and the share of maturing bonds is higher than ever, which means a lot of short-term refinancing. He says this creates a lot of risk that short-term rates stay higher, which is why he likes gold and thinks the Fed may be one and done.

  “But when you start to issue bonds, treasury on the shorter end of the curve like we have, the amount of bonds coming up from maturity now more than ever on a percentage basis creates a lot of risk for short term rates to be higher.”at 49:57