Speaker · Updated
Vincent Daniel: latest market views
Seawolf Capital
Summary
Co-founder of Seawolf Capital, former partner of Danny Moses, and co-author of the 'What Are We Doing' Substack with Porter Collins.
Chorus has 16 views from Vincent Daniel across 2 episodes on On The Tape with Danny Moses since October 7, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Transocean.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- TransoceanBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Market sentiment, positioning & volatility
Passive and vol-targeting flows skew markets to momentum and liquid names, creating persistent inefficiencies.
Vincent argues that market structure is skewed toward long momentum all the time. Passive money flows into cap-weighted indices, and vol-targeting regimes favour momentum on both the long and short sides. These regimes also favour liquid names. Active investors matter less than they used to because they do not move markets through flows. This creates large inefficiencies, but they cannot be arbitraged away day to day. Such mispricings require patience and time, so investors must pick their fights.
“market structure is skewed towards being long momentum all the time, whether it's the money coming from W2 passive, which is just flowing to cap weighted indices, or the vol targeting regimes”at 5:15
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Current AI boom looks more like the dot-com than the GFC; funding dries up when overvaluation is recognised.
Vincent sets out a crisis pattern: excessive investment turns into malinvestment, usually funded by debt. A leverage problem follows, and when investors realise the investment is overvalued and funding dries up, the crisis begins. He says he has read many comparisons of today to the GFC or the dot-com. His view is that this feels more like the dot-com, and he is curious whether the AI build-out funding will be available at reasonable interest rates.
“every potential crisis rhymes. Right? It's usually excessive investment turns into malinvestment, usually funded by debt. A leverage problem ensues.”at 9:59
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Policymakers avoid adverse price discovery, so implicit bailouts keep elevated markets propped up.
Vincent's lesson from the GFC is that the Fed and policymakers do not want material adverse price discovery. Every time markets wobbled, in fixed income or equities, there was an explicit or implicit bailout, including during COVID. He says the implications are profound: markets have become elevated, and investors have a mindset that markets can't go down. He sees the current wobble as a test of whether policymakers will intervene if AI funding requires more capital at higher interest costs or if capital becomes less available.
“Policymakers in the Federal Reserve really don't want material adverse price discovery. ... every time the market was beginning to wobble... there was some form of explicit or... implicit... bailout that helped markets prop up.”at 10:50
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Asset managers, brokers & exchanges
Brokers' main risk is transaction velocity if the AI boom halts, not holding excessive risk.
Vincent says for brokerage firms he is more worried about transaction velocity if the AI boom comes to a halt. He does not believe they are holding excessive amounts of risk. Big brokers have exposure to private equity, but he thinks the majority of their exposure is through transaction revenue. The risk is mainly lower deal and trading activity rather than balance-sheet losses.
“for the brokerage firms, I'm more worried about transaction velocity if this thing comes to a halt. I don't believe they're holding on to the excessive amounts of risk.”at 15:49
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Private equity pools funding AI initiatives are where write-downs and defaults would surface first.
Vincent says there are pockets where banks lend to private equity vehicles, and large brokerage firms also have significant private equity exposure. He believes the private equity pools funding many AI initiatives are where potential write-downs and defaults would appear. He explicitly says he is not calling for this right now. He is simply identifying where he believes the exposure lies.
“it's really those private equity pools that are funding a lot of the AI initiatives is where we would see potential write downs, defaults. I'm not calling for it right now.”at 16:32
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
AnthropicUncertain
Anthropic's S-1 margins beat expectations, but whether it can scale and charge enough for pricing is unresolved.
Vincent read social-media commentary that Anthropic's S-1 showed margins and costs better than expected, though he expects costs to rise later. He says growth is massive, but the filing does not answer whether Anthropic can scale and get customers to pay the prices needed to make the economics work, so he calls that TBD. He also questions how much of revenue comes from venture-funded companies using AI to scale. He compares this to pets.com in the dot-com era: if those customers burst, growth could slow. He says he is not bearish on AI demand, which he calls seismic, and that pricing power is undetermined.
“It was better than expectations in terms of the margins and the costs. The costs are gonna come later. But whatever it is, the growth is absolutely massive. The one thing the [S-1] doesn't answer... are they gonna be able to scale and get people to get charged the amount of money they're gonna be charged to make this all work?”at 18:33
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Midterms carry no AI policy implications since legislation would be hard to pass, even with a Democratic sweep.
Vincent argues there are no midterm implications for AI because legislation will be hard to pass. Even if Democrats swept both the House and Senate, President Trump would be there to veto anything that passed. He does expect AI to become a bigger political issue over time, tied to job losses, but he does not see the midterms changing the AI legislative outlook.
“I don't think there are any midterm implications associated with AI because it's gonna be really difficult to pass any legislation, even if the Dems were to sweep the house and the senate. President Trump is still there to veto anything that would be passed.”at 24:54
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
An AI productivity boom implies job losses, making AI a major political issue into 2027-2028.
Vincent says he has long argued that a productivity miracle from AI cynically implies an employment problem, because a productivity miracle cannot occur without shedding jobs. He points to Microsoft's reported layoffs of 60,000 people as a shot across the bow, and says a trend of such layoffs would tie into Amodei's memo from February. If that trend develops, he expects AI-driven job losses to become a very heightened political issue in 2027, going into the 2028 election.
“a productivity miracle associated with AI cynically tells you that we're gonna have an employment issue. ... you don't get a productivity miracle without shedding jobs.”at 25:43
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Stocks have risen twelve months after every midterm since 1980, and positioning is light into seasonal strength.
Vincent cites a social-media stat he could not fully verify: since 1980, market performance twelve months after every midterm election has been positive, which he calls 20 for 20. He notes that in about a century, only two midterm periods from the 1920s saw the market down twelve months later. He admits he cannot explain why. He adds that hedge fund gross and net exposure are low going into a usually good seasonal period, which makes him keep his bearishness in check.
“I forget the exact stat, but it's out there in social media land... I think since 1980... the performance of the market twelve months out after every midterm election is positive.”at 27:04
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
TransoceanBullish
Transocean is a long-term holding; industry consolidation through its Polaris deal is attractive.
Vincent says his family office has benefited from energy holdings this year, and that Transocean is one of several idiosyncratic names they like based on bottom-up company profiles for the longer term. He notes Transocean is about a month or two from completing its acquisition of Polaris. He says they tend to like stories where there is industry consolidation. The transcript cuts off during this passage, so the full case is partial.
“One I mentioned last night was Transocean... in probably in the cusp about a month or two from now of completing their acquisition with Polaris. And we tend to love stories where there's industry consolidation”at 34:32
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Beaten-down, heavily shorted stocks could explode upside if the war abates; picking names one by one.
Vincent says the dominant hedge fund vol-targeting regimes trade factors, and the stocks that have underperformed massively were hit by rates, inflation inputs and the dollar. Those names are also very crowded shorts, so they hold stored 'kinetic energy' that can explode upward once those factors reverse, particularly if the war abates (which he says doesn't seem to be the case yet). He is not buying on a blanket basis but name by name, getting entries at levels he would be comfortable owning this year. He expects poor returns over the next one to three months but outsized returns over the year. They are not going all in yet.
“where we're looking for opportunities is where there's that stored potential kinetic energy of stocks that can really explode to the upside if we get an abatement in the war”at 35:42
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Capital availability is the main risk: heavy issuance and refinancing needs clash with Fed tightening.
Vincent says most cycles end when excessive issuance hits the market, and 2026 has had a lot of that, from SpaceX and Anthropic to debt. He describes the world as a refinancing system with roughly $350-400 trillion of debt that must be refinanced every five to seven years in bulges. A hot economy requires capital for AI expansion and fiscal deficits, but the Fed is tightening, so the two do not match. He does not know how it unwinds: it could resolve favorably as in 1998 or 2007, or the cycle could extend if the war ends and rates, oil and credit spreads fall. He is keeping an open mind over the next year or two.
“most cycles come to an end when excessive supply of issuance hits the tape. ... And we've had a lot of that so far this year, whether it's SpaceX, Anthropic, as well as the debt.”at 41:13
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Ending the war would lower rates, oil and credit spreads, extending the cycle.
Vincent says the one thing that could extend the current cycle is an end to the war. Ending it would bring down rates, oil and credit spreads, which would support the cycle. He says that is not the case right now, which is why he is keeping an open mind over the coming months. The inflationary forces the economy is seeing, at least partly from the war, would come to an end, giving the Fed room to ease off hikes.
“The one thing that could happen that could extend this is if we end the war, rates come down, oil comes down, credit spreads come in, and that extends the cycle.”at 42:48
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
CoreWeaveUncertain
CoreWeave is a GPU lessor; the model works only if GPUs last longer and unsecured capital stays cheap.
Vincent says he studied CoreWeave and concluded it is essentially a lessor, like those renting out planes, rigs or containers, but with a much larger addressable market due to AI growth. The model can work, but it requires GPUs to last longer than people think, which he does not know, and cheap cost of capital. CoreWeave has cheap capital on a secured basis but not on an unsecured basis. The firm had been short with tight stops, then covered as the sentiment became uniformly negative. He says covering does not mean the business model is wrong.
“Entities that just buy a piece of equipment like a plane or a rig or a container. Take it and then rent it to somebody else. And that's essentially what CoreWeave does for a living. It's a lessor.”at 45:27
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
The Fed will do fewer than three or four hikes; one more is likely.
Vincent takes the under on the three to four hikes the Street prices. He thinks the Fed will get one more hike, and Warsh would like to add one more. He argues that ending the war would ease inflationary pressures and let the Fed pivot away from multiple hikes to something much less, which he would view as positive. He expects no rate cuts. He also notes Warsh wants the Fed to be less of a factor and offer less forward guidance until a crisis, and that Treasury Secretary Bessent has more influence on the Fed than usual. Fiscal and debt issues and the large share of wealth tied to the S&P limit how hawkish the Fed can be.
“I'll take the under well on three or four. I do think we get one more, or he would like to get one more in there”at 51:49
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Bessent is limited to deceptive tactics to keep rates down until the war subsides.
Daniel says Bessent was dealt a bad hand. A three-part program is hard to execute while war escalates, so the Treasury secretary's only tool right now is a small amount of deceptive tactics to keep yields down until the war subsides. The argument rests on the link between the war's escalation and the bond market's pressure.
“All he has right now to play with is a little bit of deceptive tactics to try to keep rates down until this war really subsides.”at 52:13
On The Tape with Danny Moses: R.P. Eddy: Don't Ignore The Cassandras ·
Shows
- On The Tape with Danny Moses · 2 episodes
Ask your AI what Vincent Daniel thinks
Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view Vincent Daniel has shared on the shows it covers, next to everyone else's. Ask where they stand, what changed, and who disagrees.
Chorus reports what speakers said. It isn't investment advice.