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What podcasters are saying about US rates & the Fed
Summary
In the past 30 days, 126 speakers on 36 finance podcasts discussed US rates & the Fed in 235 views. Chorus has followed US rates & the Fed since September 23, 2026: 239 views from 128 speakers on 36 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Axel Merk · 11
- Krishna Guha · 8
- Michael Gapen · 7
- Chris Whalen · 7
- Jim Bianco · 7
- Jeff Snider · 6
- Thomas Hoenig · 5
- Quinn Thompson · 5
- Jim Paulsen · 5
- Patrick Harker · 4
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Steve Liesman · CNBC
With nominal growth at 6%, the Fed funds rate is too low and policy is not restrictive enough.
Liesman argues the Fed's policy rate is too low given the economy's strength. With nominal growth at 6%, including about 3% real growth and inflation, the funds rate is too low, which generates inflation and means the economy is running hot. He sees the simple math as clear even though the Fed debates complex monetary policy, and he notes Musalem's hawkish remarks.
“if you're growing nominally at 6%, your funds rate is too low. Period. End of story. You're generating inflation in the economy.”at 32:32
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Fed is tightening too far; neutral rate is about 3%, yet it is pushing toward 4%.
Hatfield says the Fed is raising rates to 4% while inflation is arguably about 2%. He argues the neutral rate is about 3%, and that the Fed claims otherwise because it does not know what it is doing. He says the Fed should only raise rates when core inflation rises, not headline. He also argues the Fed misleads markets about its control over long-term rates, since its cuts and hawkish talk move the 10-year.
“gonna raise rates to four. Inflation's arguably two ish. So the neutral rate is three. They claim it's not because they don't know what they're doing”at 32:11
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
The Fed's 2% inflation target is arbitrary and too low; the Fed is incompetent.
Hatfield says the Fed made up the 2% target, and that the economy grows most prosperously with inflation around 3-4%. He adds that the Fed uses flawed indices (PCE, which he says is misstated by 100 basis points and includes about 30% imputed data), and that its 2021 error came from ignoring real-time housing data while rates were at zero. He calls the Fed incompetent for these three reasons: the target, the indices, and forecasting.
“The first is they made up the 2% target. It's way too low.”at 38:24
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Warsh is a poor pick now, but may partially reform the Fed and loosen the target.
Hatfield says Warsh looks like a horrible pick because he is a hawk, though he is caught between hawks who dislike the president. Warsh has floated 'left of the decimal' inflation language, which Hatfield reads as a loosening of the target, but committee members have pushed back. Hatfield expects Warsh to bring better indices and more flexibility on the target and forecasting, and says he won't be as bad as he looks. He expects change through indices and adjustments rather than a formal target change.
“I think that [Warsh] ultimately won't be as horrible a pick as he seems right now because he'll help at least partially reform the Fed, get better indices, and a little bit more flexibility on the target and forecasting.”at 46:55
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Darius Dale · 42 Macro
Fed faces an impossible dilemma: [2%] inflation is incompatible with winning the AI race.
If the administration is honest that AI is a national security imperative rather than a race for corporate profits, then getting inflation back to 2% conflicts with the spending needed to win the AI race. That leaves the Fed in an impossible position. He believes policymakers, including Treasury and the new Fed chair, are working on a liquidity response, and that the market is not yet pricing that risk.
“[2%] inflation is not compatible with winning the AI race if in fact the administration is being honest with us that this is truly a national security imperative and not just a race to more corporate profits.”at 15:45
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections ·
Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management
The Fed reacts to equity drawdowns and reverses policy when markets overstep, as in 2018.
Josh says the Fed monitors the stock market, through financial conditions indicators and trend measures like the ten-month moving average. In 2018, after the market fell into a roughly 20% drawdown, the Fed reversed course on Christmas Eve and within a month was talking about cutting rates again. He takes this as evidence the Fed knows when it has tightened too far.
“I think they know when they've overstepped. I watched that play out in 2018.”at 31:36
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Collin Martin · Charles Schwab
Warsh's press conference was hawkish, signalling more rate hikes despite the hold.
Martin reads Warsh's press conference as hawkish, which leans toward more hikes coming, even though the Fed held. Warsh said inflation is still too high and that financial conditions have tightened but are not tight. Martin notes the statement described the economy as strong and said the committee needs more data. He also sees a possible patient approach, since inflation expectations are described as anchored, so the Fed may not need to act as aggressively as markets expect. Short-term Treasury yields fell after the meeting, which he links to that patience.
“he made it clear that inflation's still too high, and he said that financial conditions have tightened but aren't tight. So, you know, that to me is hawkish or leans to the idea that more hikes are coming.”at 3:24
On Investing (Charles Schwab): The Fed Holds, but the Pressure Builds ·
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
In a crisis the Fed will have to print money and buy Treasuries, despite denying monetization.
Treasury supply could reach about $5.2 trillion if deficits, foreign central-bank selling of about $600 billion since February, and hedge-fund deleveraging (hedge funds from the Caymans own about 8% of the market) all hit at once in a recession. Mom and pop and pensions will not be buyers while they lose jobs and take early withdrawals. The only buyer left is the Fed, which will say it is not monetizing the debt, but a policy response is only possible after a crisis.
“No, there's only one buyer. It's the Fed. The Fed's going have to print money and buy treasuries, and they will say, We're not monetizing the debt.”at 31:56
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Patrick Ceresna · Big Picture Trading
The Fed's hawkish hold matched expectations; it did not shift short or long yields or the dollar trend.
Ceresna says the market expected a hawkish hold and got one. Powell's tone was softer, but markets showed no big surprise or repricing across assets. The Fed acknowledged some tightening in financial conditions but stopped short of calling them tight, and did not say bond markets had already tightened enough. SOFR and short-term Treasury yields barely moved, and the 10- and 30-year yields stayed in their recent range. The dollar trend would have reversed on a dovish pivot, and that did not happen, so the Fed gave the market what it had priced in.
“Well, the market was expecting a hawkish hold, and they got it. It was a bit of a softer press conference in terms of the tone, but overall, when you look at the actual reactions of the market to the FOMC, then pretty much the market got what they were expecting”at 45:24
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Fed will likely hike in December and must keep tightening to transmit into the real economy.
Basmajian expects the Fed to raise rates in December, which he says they likely will. Every incremental tightening slows the economy more. For the tightening to hurt, he argues the Fed must keep tightening so that it transmits through residential construction, manufacturing and broader construction, and then weakens the labor market. Only then would a recessionary scare become likely.
“even if the Fed does raise rates in December, which they likely will, the economy still has some time to be able to digest that without the leading indicators and early sensitive parts of the economy rolling over. What I would be looking for is the Fed to continue tightening monetary policy”at 39:49
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Steve Liesman · CNBC
The Fed will definitely hike in December, as markets have priced in.
Liesman says Chair Warsh signaled a December hike if the data support it, and the market heard that and priced it: futures showed about an 85% chance of a December hike and 66% for March. Critics argue the Fed failed to give a coherent reason not to hike in October, which increases the case for tightening.
“I think we're definitely getting a hike in December. That's what the market heard and that's how they're priced.”at 6:12
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Gary Cohn · IBM
Data will lead the Fed to hike in December, though it remains data dependent.
Cohn says the Fed is data dependent but expects the incoming data to lead to a rate hike. He argues the Fed is fairly confident it can tackle inflation over time, while noting the Fed's few levers do not produce oil or lower food prices and would raise mortgage rates in a housing-constrained market.
“I believe it's data dependent, but I think the data will lead to a hike.”at 17:05
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Mike Feroli · J.P. Morgan
Policy is not restrictive, given strong GDP and jobless claims data.
Feroli argues the Fed's policy is not restrictive. Strong GDP and low jobless claims mean the economy is not showing the weakness that restrictive policy would produce, so he finds it a hard case to make that policy is truly restrictive. He also notes consumer spending has held up despite questions about sustainability.
“It doesn't look that way. This morning's numbers wouldn't say it's all that restrictive, would it? When you look at the GDP numbers, the claims numbers. So I think it's a hard case to make that it's really restrictive.”at 3:36
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Mike Feroli · J.P. Morgan
The September pause was defensible, but a hike had a strong case given hotter inflation.
Feroli says the pause was defensible, since Williams and others argued the transitory story has not fully faded and the inflation is supply-shock driven. He thinks there was also a strong case for a hike, because inflation data since the September meeting came in hotter than before it. If the Fed is data dependent, he asks why it is waiting, and says the chair did not make that case well.
“I think the decision to pause was defensible. I don't think we heard a great defense of why they didn't yesterday, but I think it was defensible.”at 4:43
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Mike Feroli · J.P. Morgan
Dropping one meeting leaves a 12-13 week gap, and the framework-review rationale is unconvincing.
Feroli finds the Fed's rationale for cutting meetings unconvincing. The Fed has held eight meetings a year in past framework-review years, so the review does not require fewer. If the Fed keeps the current schedule and skips one meeting, the gap between active meetings becomes 12 to 13 weeks, which makes each remaining meeting more important for markets. He sees no urgent need for the change.
“Certainly we've had framework review conferences in years where they continue to have eight meetings per year and they were able to do the frame. So if that's the rationale, I didn't find that all that convincing.”at 8:30
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
James Bullard · Purdue University
The committee is on a quarterly pace; he favours two hikes, then a review.
Bullard believes the committee's decision was effectively made at the September meeting and that the committee implicitly had a quarterly pace in mind. Williams's view, which he thinks is popular, is that the Fed can wait until December and the next projections, then decide on 2027. Asked about his earlier call for two hikes, he refines it to two hikes and review, a view that implies two more increases before reassessing.
“I think maybe a little better wording would be two hikes and review.”at 21:33
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
James Bullard · Purdue University
Warsh's communication leans toward markets over committee, closer to Greenspan's style.
Bullard says Warsh harks back to Greenspan, which he appreciates, but that Warsh is trying to put more weight on markets and less on the committee. He thinks it is good for the market to understand where the committee stands, because that yields more accurate pricing. He also says the Fed should give markets a clear sense of its reaction function, and that the transparency shift began under Bernanke and cannot be reversed.
“He harkens back a little bit to Greenspan, which I can appreciate because I like Alan Greenspan, but a little bit more market and a little bit less committee, I think, is basically what he's trying to do.”at 23:05
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Kevin Hassett · White House National Economic Council
Thirty-year TIPS shows markets expect long-term inflation near 2.1%; Fed action cuts inflation slowly, not before midterms.
He argues that a fall in inflation before the midterms caused by Fed action would not match how monetary policy works. He says the Fed's response is a very slow-moving process. He points to the 30-year inflation-protected Treasury, which implies the Fed will bring long-term inflation to about 2.1%. He says that anchored long-run expectations are what Fed governors need to reassure markets. He also says the Fed should wait for the October CPI and PCE data, and would act if the September trajectory proves to be new.
“If you look at the thirty year, tip, the inflation protected treasury, it's expecting the Fed to... The Fed to get long term inflation at around 2.1%.”at 12:17
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)
Fed cannot sustain rate hikes given debt loads; western traders betting on hikes are wrong.
Western traders are positioning for the Fed to raise rates in a concerted, long-lasting campaign. Lundin has strong conviction this is not possible given current debt loads, and says the math shows it. He expects the market narrative to change and the metals rally to renew once Western investors and even the algos recognise the Fed cannot tighten consistently.
“the western traders are still acting on the idea that the Fed will be raising rates and doing so in some sort of concerted long lasting campaign. And I have a very strong conviction that that's just not possible with debt loads this great”at 6:01
Thoughtful Money: Gold & Silver Weakness Now Offers A "Generational Opportunity" | Brien Lundin ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Warsh is a new sheriff: tighter balance-sheet control, markets set direction, and determined to cut inflation.
Hoenig sees Kevin Warsh as taking a different approach from Powell, with better control of the Fed's balance sheet and letting markets work out the direction rather than the Fed leading. He also believes Warsh is determined to bring inflation down, a goal he says Powell stated but did not achieve.
“...I think Kevin [Warsh] wants to bring better control to the balance sheet, and let the markets figure things out rather than being led by the Fed... and I think he's also determined to bring inflation down.”at 4:08
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Holding rates near zero in 2010 was below neutral, favoring debtors and speculation.
In 2010 the economy was recovering, with industrial production and GDP improving, so zero rates were unnecessary. Hoenig argues that keeping rates artificially low below neutral misallocated resources, favored debtors over savers and encouraged speculation. He warned that returning from a near-zero equilibrium for an economy of this size would be chaotic.
“It favors debtors over savers, and without a good reason. It also favors high levels of speculation when you hold interest rates artificially low, below the neutral rate.”at 8:36
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Real rates near zero are too accommodative with inflation near 4%; policy should be moderately restrictive.
The Fed's target range is 3.5-4% while inflation is about 4%, so real policy rates are almost zero and highly accommodative. Hoenig asks what stimulus is being aimed at with inflation that high. He argues policy should be organized toward returning inflation to 2% with a moderately restrictive stance, which he says the FOMC knows but is ignoring.
“So real interest rates are still highly accommodative, almost zero. ... Stimulate the economy more, and when we have inflation almost 4%? ... a moderately restrictive policy would be much more appropriate than an easy policy of almost zero real interest rates.”at 13:08
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
The Fed's balance sheet is still very large, so its growth should stay restrained.
Although the balance sheet is no longer growing, it remains very large and provides a lot of liquidity. Hoenig argues the FOMC chair knows it needs to be held back from growing, and that this is a judgment call the Fed must make going forward.
“I would also tell you that their balance sheet, while it is not growing, is still very large. So there's a lot of liquidity out there.”at 14:39
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
If the Fed holds rates in October, a December hike becomes nearly a must unless the war ends.
He would be somewhat disappointed if the Fed does not raise rates at the upcoming meeting, though not surprised. If it holds, December becomes almost a must for a hike. The exception would be a real surprise such as the war ending and energy prices falling sharply, which would give temporary relief to inflation pressure. He does not see that happening.
“...if they don't raise rates tomorrow, I will be not surprised, but I will be somewhat disappointed. But I think then December becomes an almost must time for them to raise rate, unless we have a real surprise in terms of the war ending, energy prices coming down dramatically...”at 16:43
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Andrew Dubinsky · UBS
Fed will likely hike again in December and March; the October hold was a compromise.
The Fed held in October, which was not a surprise, but the statement called economic activity strong and two members dissented in favour of a hike. The chair leaned on improvements since the September hike rather than the bad inflation data, and guided to gradual policy adjustments rather than a large cycle. Dubinsky reads the broad support for the hold as a compromise: members did not dissent in exchange for high confidence that there would be at least a hike in December. His view is still a December hike and another in March, because little new inflation data arrives before the December meeting to derail inflation that is elevated at slightly over 3%. He would revisit if financial conditions tightened enough to substitute for a March hike, which could mean one fewer hike.
“So our view is still another hike in December and another hike in March because there's just not a lot of new inflation data in between.”at 2:25
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: FOMC reflections & US economic update ·
Darrell Cronk · Wells Fargo
The Fed must keep hiking; inflation and a strong economy mean policy is not easy.
Core PCE is at 3.6% against 3.4% real GDP growth and unemployment at 4.2% with no jobless claims. He argues this is not a recipe for easy policy. The Fed's own press conference says it will deliver 2% inflation, but current prices are not delivering that, so he says it is time to move on with hikes.
“That's not a recipe for easy policy. Right? ... So I think the Fed needs to get on with it. We're... He keeps saying we're gonna deliver 2%.”at 3:59
Bloomberg Surveillance: Outlook for Inflation, Oil, and Tech ·
Ira Jersey · Bloomberg Intelligence
The Fed will keep hiking at a slow pace until inflation trends lower.
He reads the prepared remarks as the committee's real view. They gave forward guidance that they will stay hawkish and keep raising rates at a slow pace until inflation falls. He notes the cadence is slower than some want. The Fed is wary of the jobs market in a low-hire, low-fire environment, so it will not hike aggressively and risk a recession.
“we focus in on the prepared remarks because that is the committee's view... we're gonna remain hawkish. We're gonna continue to increase interest rates at, this slow ish pace, but they're going to keep going until they see inflation trends lower.”at 10:30
Bloomberg Surveillance: Outlook for Inflation, Oil, and Tech ·
Trey Reik · Bristol Gold Group LLC
Fed officials signalled no urgency to hike, and short rates cannot rise much given the debt load, so a hike is unlikely.
After long yields spiked in early October, Fed officials including Williams, Jefferson, Bowman and Warsh said within 48 hours that no urgent action or October hike was needed, and rates fell back. Reik believes the Fed is concerned that short rates cannot rise much because of the debt load, financing costs and a negative national savings rate. Market odds of a hike before year-end have fallen sharply, and he expects them to keep falling to December.
“And they're, I think, pretty concerned that short rates really can't go up much from this level.”at 34:29
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management
The Fed's hold was a hawkish pause: it upgraded the economy and called inflation too high.
Seymour says the Fed's statement seemed to upgrade the economy and talked about inflation being too high, with reference to Americans who have dealt with inflation for more than six years. That combination is why he calls the pause hawkish, and he concludes the Fed is leaning hawkish.
“I do think it was a hawkish pause... They seemingly upgraded the economy. They talked about inflation being too high.”at 40:53
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
Jim Cramer · CNBC
Cramer expects another Fed rate hike in December because the current tightening is working.
The Fed chair said inflation is still too high and that spending looks too strong, fed by excess spending by consumers and corporations and by oil prices. Cramer heard the chair say inflation will not fall to the 2% target with this much spending. He notes some companies have already become more discerning in their spending since the last quarter-point hike. He does not expect big spending decisions to be deferred, but he thinks the rate increase is working. From that, he expects another hike in December.
“I sense another rate hike in December.”at 4:46
Mad Money with Jim Cramer: Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 10/28/26 ·
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