Gold & Silver Weakness Now Offers A "Generational Opportunity" | Brien Lundin

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)Bullish

Banyan Gold is a low-risk, well-derisked Yukon gold deposit that will eventually be bought out by a major.

Lundin calls Banyan one of the best gold deposits and jurisdictions, in the Yukon, with about 8 million ounces. He thinks it could easily reach 10 million ounces just by lowering its cutoff grade, which he says is arguably possible. He says the company has derisked the project very well, so he sees it as one of the surer things in junior mining. He visited the project over the summer and found it very well run, large and growing. He expects it will eventually be acquired by a major. He personally owns the stock and says he is not an unbiased observer.

“For the lower risk, I think Banyan Gold is, one of the best deposits out there and one of the best jurisdictions. It's in the Yukon, has about 8,000,000 ounces of gold, that I think they could easily get to 10,000,000 ounces really just by lowering their cutoff grade”at 41:29

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)Bullish

Relevant Gold's Wyoming land tie-up of a displaced Abitibi-style gold belt is the most asymmetric junior mining bet.

Lundin calls Relevant Gold a much more speculative pick. Its thesis is that a large part of the Abitibi Gold Belt in Canada was separated, rotated and ended up in Wyoming a couple of billion years ago. If that is true, he says it is the most asymmetric bet in junior mining. He says the company has effectively tied up most of that gold belt, and that the thesis has been proven through its work and others' work. He compares it to one company holding most of the Abitibi belt, where over 100 million ounces of gold have been discovered. He visited the projects and is not sure whether the big discovery will come from this drill season or a later one. He still believes it will make a few significant discoveries over time, backed by strong investors, land and targets. He personally owns the stock.

“And if that's true, then this is the most asymmetric bet that you can have in junior mining because operating on this thesis, which I think they've actually proven through their work and the work of others, they've tied up most of that entire gold belt.”at 43:01

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Gold and silver macro case is very strong; leveraged metals plays are a generational opportunity.

Lundin argues the macro picture for metals is very strong because debt loads are too large for the Fed to raise rates consistently, so currencies will be debased. He sees gold and silver as the beneficiaries and says the sector can be played through leveraged vehicles. He calls it a generational opportunity, and says he personally owns many names in the sector.

“The macro picture for the metals is so strong. The argument is so strong. ... You can invest along that with these leveraged plays. And I think it really is a generational opportunity.”at 0:30

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Western traders now buy gold on dips, acting as price support rather than driver.

Central banks drove the gold market before, but now Western investors are the marginal buyers. Lundin says they keep allocating the same dollar amount to the sector, so as the price falls they buy more gold, making them a support rather than a driver. He views the January spike as a bubble looking for a pin, now worked off, which returned prices to where they were before the Fed-hike scare.

“As the price drops, they're allocating probably the same amount of money to the sector, so they're buying more gold.”at 5:46

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Gold and silver miners earn tech-like profits yet investors ignore them; upside is large.

Gold and silver miners are outperforming and earning profits that any tech company would envy, yet Western investors have largely ignored them. Lundin thinks the miners will get attention when AI-bubble enthusiasm deflates. The sector is a tiny backwater next to Apple, Tesla, SpaceX and the Magnificent Seven, so a small slice of global liquidity would have an outsized effect, especially in the more leveraged silver names. Many tech stocks are priced on potential rather than earnings, which he contrasts with miners.

“And in the meantime, you have dramatic outperformance by gold and silver miners who are turning out earnings that any tech company would, you know, be envious of.”at 9:00

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Gold supply should rise only after a four-to-five-year golden period of constrained output.

Many large, known gold projects only became economic around $2,200 an ounce and are now robustly economic but still need years to build. Producers can also process low-grade ore already on waste piles, and should do so at these prices. Even so, Lundin expects about four to five years before gold production rises meaningfully in response, giving a window of constrained supply.

“we've got about a golden period of four to five years before we start seeing gold production really rise in response to these prices.”at 21:44

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Majors will have to buy juniors upstream, at takeover premiums, to refill depleted pipelines.

Major gold producers are making a lot of money but can only spend so much on buybacks and dividends. New analysts will judge them on reserve pipelines, and some majors now hold fewer reserves than a decade ago, with share prices flat for ten to twenty years. So far deals have been mergers of equals or acquisitions at 10 to 20% premiums, because developers already raised the money to advance projects. Lundin expects majors to move further upstream, buying explorers and early developers at takeover premiums that reward junior shareholders.

“I think we are going to see the majors at some point begin to go further upstream to more of the explorers and early stage developers to lock up some of these deposits at cheaper levels, but at takeover premiums that would be highly rewarding for the shareholders of those junior companies.”at 23:55

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

With above-ground silver gone, industry will absorb all new silver output and pay up.

Silver roughly doubled to around $120 in early 2026 and industry kept buying, forced to bid against investors for available supply, which Lundin says is new in his career. Above-ground stockpiles that used to cap the price are gone, so he now expects industrial demand to take every newly mined ounce over the next few years. Silver is about 70% a byproduct of other metal production, which makes a supply response harder, and industry will have to pay whatever the going rate is.

“This is the first time where I think that the industrial demand for silver really will have an impact because there are no longer any above ground supplies.”at 37:40

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Silver is indispensable and cheap in products, and 70% is byproduct output, so its supply follows other metals.

Lundin says about 70% of silver production is a byproduct of other metals, so silver output is driven by the economics and dynamics of those other metal markets rather than silver's own price. He says silver becomes the more valuable metal only at a price far above today's. He argues silver is indispensable in many applications and adds little to the final cost of those products, so it is unlikely to be engineered out or innovated around.

“So it is indispensable in a lot of applications. It doesn't add a lot to the final cost of products in in many of those applications.”at 39:13

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Debt and deficits make higher metals prices the one confidently knowable trend, though timing is uncertain.

Lundin argues that after decades of ever-easier money, the system is in the end game. The primary macro driver he sees now is debt and deficits. He says the macro picture for metals is very strong. He is skeptical about timing, and says no one is smart enough to predict the precise path or how it will end. He is confident in the trend, which he says is clearly visible and tells investors to be in these sectors. He describes the metals sector as a generational opportunity, and says investors can ride the trend with leveraged mining stocks.

“The one thing we can be very confident in is the trend. We can see that. And that trend tells us you wanna be in these sectors, and you'll do very well”at 1:00:31

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Copper supply constraint cannot be solved by price; new mines need ten to fifteen years.

A copper mine takes fifteen to twenty years from discovery to production. Large copper projects are known but were uneconomic for years, and all of them would need development to meet the coming demand curve. Price cannot fix the shortfall quickly, because even with higher prices it will take ten to fifteen years to bring new supply online, so a major copper supply constraint will persist.

“So there will be still a major supply constraint on copper, and it will be unresolvable simply by price because it will take ten, fifteen years to get those new supplies online.”at 22:20

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Copper has no real substitute across energy generation, transmission and use, so supply must grow far more.

Lundin says there is tremendous copper production today, but it needs to grow much more because copper cannot really be innovated around. He says copper is necessary both to deliver energy and in many end uses: windings in electric motors, wire for electrical transmission, and windings for electricity generation. He says that all along the energy distribution and usage chain, there is copper and nothing can replace it. That gives the supply need a structural, not cyclical, basis.

“There's tremendous copper production, but there needs to be so much more because you can't really innovate around copper.”at 39:34

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Fed cannot sustain rate hikes given debt loads; western traders betting on hikes are wrong.

Western traders are positioning for the Fed to raise rates in a concerted, long-lasting campaign. Lundin has strong conviction this is not possible given current debt loads, and says the math shows it. He expects the market narrative to change and the metals rally to renew once Western investors and even the algos recognise the Fed cannot tighten consistently.

“the western traders are still acting on the idea that the Fed will be raising rates and doing so in some sort of concerted long lasting campaign. And I have a very strong conviction that that's just not possible with debt loads this great”at 6:01

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

The AI bubble has not deflated; greed persists, though AI has more substance than past bubbles.

Lundin sees only some skepticism in tech stocks, not an abandonment of the AI idea. A big drop last week was followed by a rebound, so he thinks greed and belief remain. He concedes there is real substance behind AI, unlike many past bubbles, but says that substance is stealing attention from other sectors, and he expects gold and silver miners to get attention only once the AI bubble starts to deflate.

“I think there's still a greed factor there and still a belief in that. And to be fair, there is some reality there. It's not like a lot of the other bubbles we've had in the past.”at 8:26

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Government and tech-company money will override mining economics and inflate developer valuations.

Tech companies are moving upstream to secure supply of battery, base and rare earth metals by investing in explorers and producers. Governments are also stepping in with checks that override normal permitting timelines and project economics, because security of supply and independence from adversaries matter. China controls most of the rare earths market, and a small fraction of the federal budget could fund the fix. Lundin calls this dumb money, but says it will get projects built and sharply inflate the values of explorers and developers.

“It is dumb money coming in, but it's overwhelming dumb money. And it will get projects built, it will dramatically inflate the values of the companies that are going to exploring and developing.”at 17:14

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

AI shows great potential in mineral exploration but its value is still unproven.

Lundin agrees AI could raise the odds of finding deposits, but says it is still unproven. Earlier machine-learning efforts, including one backed by big tech with hundreds of millions of dollars, have not yet found a deposit. Newer efforts look more promising. He cites Kodiak Copper, which used AI on its data to generate targets, some of which the company's geologists had not identified, while others overlapped with geologists' targets.

“[AI] shows great potential. I think you're right there. It's still unproven.”at 28:48

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Small modular reactors will power data centers first, a couple of years out; mining use is far off.

Lundin thinks small modular reactors will have their biggest near-term impact at stationary data centers that need independent power, which is a major driver of the uranium market. He says installations are only a couple of years away, maybe three. For mining applications he thinks it is about twenty years off, since power lines or gas pipelines can deliver power over long distances more cheaply than even a small reactor.

“where the SMRs will have the most impact, I think, in the closer term will be for data centers ... We're only a couple of years away, maybe three, for small modular reactor installations.”at 32:06

Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)

Debt loads rule out spending cuts or growth fixes, so currencies must be debased via inflation.

After forty-five to fifty years of easy money and falling rates, debt loads across developed nations now preclude any real solution. Lundin says governments will not cut spending, since the US political system rewards spending and incumbents, and growth cannot close the gap short of a breakthrough like practical fusion. He concludes that currencies will have to be depreciated, which he calls inflation, as in every human society in history. This is the basis of his optimism for gold and silver.

“You're not gonna cut spending. You cannot grow your way out of this short of of discovering practical nuclear fusion ... The currencies have to be depreciated [aka] inflation.”at 36:00