Theme · Updated
What podcasters are saying about US deficit & government debt
Summary
In the past 30 days, 68 speakers on 26 finance podcasts discussed US deficit & government debt in 103 views. Chorus has followed US deficit & government debt since September 22, 2026: 108 views from 71 speakers on 27 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Chris Whalen · 5
- Steve Eisman · 4
- Axel Merk · 3
- Larry McDonald · 3
- David Friedberg · 3
- Matthew Piepenburg · 3
- Jim Bianco · 3
- Jurrien Timmer · 3
- Thomas Hoenig · 2
- Trey Reik · 2
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
US bonds yield more than Canada and Germany because of the US deficit; spreads are already priced in.
Hatfield tests whether the deficit drives US yields by comparing other sovereigns. Canadian bonds trade about 120bp below US bonds. He says Canada does not have better credit or better weather. The difference comes from Canada running a deficit of about 3% of GDP against the US at about 6%. He says global spreads already reflect this, and that US bonds are high relative to the rest of the world. France, which runs a similar deficit, trades close to US yields.
“Their bonds trade a 120 basis points below ours. It's not a better credit... they run a 3% budget deficit. We run a six.”at 36:01
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
A recession caused by an AI bust would add about $2 trillion to the deficit, forcing more issuance.
Interest, entitlements and veterans' affairs already run at about 105% of federal receipts. In past downturns the deficit rose by 600 to 800 basis points of GDP, which is about $1.8 to $2.4 trillion. A recession caused by an AI bust would therefore add roughly $2 trillion to a deficit that is already about $2 trillion. Gromen notes that with Treasury issuance already about $2 trillion, a recession would push gross issuance toward $4 trillion, and bank selling and hedge-fund deleveraging would add to supply.
“So that's how much more the deficit's going to go up in a recession. So we're running $2,000,000,000,000 deficits today in a recession caused by a bursting of the AI mania.”at 29:22
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
US government is too big and indebted; it is a detriment that weighs on growth and wages.
Basmajian judges the US a weak spot on three measures: total debt to GDP, the deficit as a share of GDP, and government spending as a share of GDP. He says it is not as bad as France. He argues most developed economies, including the US, have passed the point of diminishing returns, where government is beneficial in small size, and is now at a size that is a detriment. The resulting negative externalities include depressed real wages across the private sector, and he sees no real proposals to escape these structural issues.
“The US government is pretty pretty weak spot on all three of those metrics. Not as bad as France... when the government gets this big across all three of those metrics, it creates a lot of negative externalities, and one of them is this depressed real wages”at 41:39
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Gary Cohn · IBM
US debt is $40 trillion and growing, with no sign of spending cuts from either party.
Cohn says the US debt is about $40 trillion and growing, with no sign that either party will stop or curtail spending. He warns that a debt problem would hit pension funds, endowments, mutual funds and retirement accounts that hold this debt, and that low recoveries would dramatically reduce US consumption power. He notes the government would struggle to write a check this large, bigger than the mortgage-crisis bailout.
“You can't deny that we're [$40 trillion] in debt and growing. And there's no signs on either side of the aisle that we're gonna stop spending.”at 31:41
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Brien Lundin · Jefferson Financial (Gold Newsletter / New Orleans Investment Conference)
Debt loads rule out spending cuts or growth fixes, so currencies must be debased via inflation.
After forty-five to fifty years of easy money and falling rates, debt loads across developed nations now preclude any real solution. Lundin says governments will not cut spending, since the US political system rewards spending and incumbents, and growth cannot close the gap short of a breakthrough like practical fusion. He concludes that currencies will have to be depreciated, which he calls inflation, as in every human society in history. This is the basis of his optimism for gold and silver.
“You're not gonna cut spending. You cannot grow your way out of this short of of discovering practical nuclear fusion ... The currencies have to be depreciated [aka] inflation.”at 36:00
Thoughtful Money: Gold & Silver Weakness Now Offers A "Generational Opportunity" | Brien Lundin ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Government borrowing of $2T a year will raise rates for private borrowers, including AI, slowing the economy.
The government with $40 trillion in debt and $2 trillion of new debt every year will borrow no matter what rates are. This pushes rates up generally and raises borrowing costs even more for the private sector, including AI firms and Oracle. They will be unable to borrow, invest and build as much, which slows the economy. If debt keeps growing, rates must rise and weaken the economy, but if Congress addresses the debt, the economy could adjust slowly, as in the mid-nineties.
“the government with its 40,000,000,000,000 of debt and $2,000,000,000,000 of new debt every year will borrow no matter what, no matter what the rates are. That means rates will rise generally and the private sector... their rates are gonna go up even more.”at 24:14
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Congress shows no sign of addressing national debt, raising the risk of a future financial crisis.
Hoenig argues that resolving the debt problem would help the economy. If debt is addressed as it was in the mid-1990s, the government stops competing with the private sector for available credit, which frees more capital for private investment and can produce good outcomes. He says he sees no indication that Congress wants to address the national debt problem. Until it does, he argues, the US faces increasing risk of a financial crisis at some unspecified point in the future.
“I see no indication on the part of congress that it wants to address our national debt problem. And until they do that, we are going to face increasing risk about having a financial crisis sometime in the future.”at 38:18
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Trey Reik · Bristol Gold Group LLC
Mandatory spending plus interest now exceeds tax receipts, and the deficit is nearing an unmanageable inflection point.
Total federal debt is about $41 trillion, and the short-term rate paid to finance Treasury debt is $1.2 trillion annualized and growing. Non-discretionary spending (entitlements, veterans, and interest), before defense, is already 105% of tax receipts. That spending is growing 7.5% while receipts grow about 4%. Reik has studied the deficit for two decades and sees the cost of financing it approaching an unmanageable inflection point.
“As Luke Croman points out, that's already 105% of tax receipts. That doesn't even include the defense budget, and it's growing at 7.5% and tax receipts are growing at four.”at 31:31
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Danny Moses · Moses Ventures
US will trip the debt ceiling in the first six weeks of 2027.
Danny says that with the country's deficit issues and global sovereign debt pressure, the US will hit the debt ceiling again early in 2027, when the calendar turns. He says debt is approaching the limit and that the market is not looking ahead to 2027 and 2028.
“We're gonna turn the calendar. We're gonna trip the debt ceiling, by the way, in the first six weeks of 2027.”at 38:39
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Axel Merk · Merk Investments
The US deficit is tremendous and no politician appears willing to tackle it.
Merk says it is bad news that nobody in politics appears to want to tackle the deficit, which is quite tremendous. He sees a starting point in the discussion around the Treasury secretary, who has political accountability, unlike the Fed. He says the fiscal debate has begun, but he doesn't know whether the Fed chair will tell Congress to get its act together.
“it's really bad news that nobody in politics appears to want to tackle the deficit and the deficit is quite tremendous”at 46:40
Thoughtful Money: FOMC Live Reaction: Is The Fed Making A Policy Error? | Axel Merk ·
Jeffrey Gundlach · DoubleLine Capital
Deficits are running near 9% of GDP over two months, adding pressure on long-term rates.
The national debt rose about $500 billion in two months, which he annualizes to a $3 trillion deficit pace, about 9% of GDP. He notes a 6% deficit has only occurred five times in US history (Civil War, WWI, WWII, the financial crisis and COVID), and fiscal 2026 is already running at 6%. Gundlach says that deficit pressure, plus AI borrowing demand, is pushing up interest rates, though he allows the two-month pace may be idiosyncratic.
“Now maybe there's something, you know, idiosyncratic about those two months, and it's not right to assume that that's the new trajectory that we're at. But if it is a new trajectory we're at, we're running a deficit right now for the last two months of 9% of GDP.”at 13:12
Gita Gopinath · Harvard University
US debt near 100% of GDP, up from 60% pre-GFC, leaves fiscal policy with little room to act.
Gopinath says global debts are very high. The US is still in a privileged position in how markets treat it. Still, US debt has risen from about 60% of GDP before the global financial crisis to about 100% now. Fiscal policy has little or no space left, and the economy's ability to fix problems is more impaired than in the past.
“we're not in a situation where if you remember pre GFC [debt to GDP] in the US was 60%, and now we're at 100%.”at 10:23
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28th, 2026 ·
Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
US debt of $40 trillion and $2-3 trillion deficits are heading toward a reckoning, with interest payments becoming a problem within years.
Grandich argues the US has $40 trillion of debt and still runs $2 to $3 trillion yearly deficits. He says the country is only a few years from when paying interest becomes a real challenge. He describes decades of fiscal mismanagement coming due, because the US cannot keep borrowing and make timely interest payments. He cites foreign sellers as evidence that the world already recognises this, and he uses it to argue against locking money into long-term bonds.
“$40,000,000,000,000 in debt and we're still running 2 to $3,000,000,000,000 yearly deficits. We're only a few years away now to where paying the interest is gonna becoming a real challenge.”at 32:58
The David Lin Report: China's Tech Stocks Crash 40%: Is Wall Street Next? | David Woo ·
Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs
Government leverage is the biggest tail risk; debt-to-GDP levels demand a credible fiscal plan to bend deficits.
Kaplan names government leverage as his biggest tail risk, starting with governments around the world and citing France. Governments are historically highly leveraged, and COVID added a lot more leverage. With little workforce growth, the economy is putting all its chips on productivity growth. He worries that policymakers need a fiscal approach that shows how deficits as a share of GDP will be bent, because the long end of the curve keeps backing up and squeezing housing.
“the biggest tail risk I see still starts with governments around the world... Government's historically highly leveraged. And in the aftermath of COVID, we got a lot more leverage, and we don't have workforce growth.”at 11:16
Bloomberg Talks: Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Robert Kaplan Talks Fed Meeting ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
The Gulf war's reported $47 billion cost adds roughly 0.15% of GDP to the US federal deficit.
Media reports put the cost of the war to the US at $47 billion. Donovan works through the implication for the federal deficit and estimates that the war adds about 0.15% of GDP to it. He uses the reported cost to size the fiscal impact of the conflict.
“Separate media reports suggest that the war has now cost $47,000,000,000 for The United States, which implies an additional to the addition to the federal deficit of about 0.15% of GDP.”at 3:13
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Fed – mime versus meme' ·
Andrew McDermott · Mission Value Partners
US government debt problem is much worse than officially acknowledged, relative to Japan.
Andrew says everyone has a debt problem, but he thinks the US is much worse than acknowledged. He points to the Federal Reserve paper that consolidated US and Japanese government balance sheets, showing that US pensions and other obligations sit off balance sheet in a way that Japan's do not. He argues the US pension structure is the reverse of Japan's, with liabilities in real terms and assets in nominal ones.
“Everybody has a debt problem. I just think The US is much worse than acknowledged.”at 49:30
Top Traders Unplugged: GM109: Why Buffett Finally Went All In on Japan ft. Andrew McDermott ·
Gary Gensler · MIT Sloan School of Management
US has limited fiscal room; high debt constrains response, though its economy is larger than France's.
Gensler argues the US already runs very high debt relative to its economy. He points to France, which has even higher debt and no fiscal room to step in. He says the US also has limited fiscal room, but that it is a bigger and more significant economy, which gives it more capacity than France. He adds that a fiscal stimulus package could come in 2028 if a deceleration occurs, and he sees Social Security and fiscal challenges as the long-term structural issue.
“So we're already running very high debt to our economy, but see what's happening in France... We have limited fiscal room as well, but we're a bigger, I would say, more significant economy.”at 7:48
Bloomberg Talks: Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler Talks AI Boom & More ·
Ariana Salvatore · Morgan Stanley
US deficits will expand under every election outcome because spending is the path of least resistance in Congress.
Salvatore argues deficits expand in every scenario: a Republican hold, divided government, or a Democratic sweep. Fiscal policy is the legislative variable, and in a standoff Congress's path of least resistance is to spend more on both sides. So the usual 'divided government means gridlock and fiscal clarity' playbook does not hold this time, and autopilot spending keeps deficits large.
“We think deficit expands in every outcome, even in a republican hold scenario, divided government, and democratic sweep. The primary reason for that is that fiscal is really the legislative variable here. And the path of least resistance in congress, when you see something like a standoff, is really just to kinda spend more on both sides.”at 42:50
CNBC Closing Bell: Markets Brace for the Fed as Earnings Roll In 10/27/26 ·
Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs
Governments' high leverage is the biggest tail risk; the US and others must show how they will bend deficits.
Kaplan says governments are historically highly leveraged and COVID added more leverage, with no workforce growth to offset it. Since the economy is relying on productivity growth, he worries that debt-to-GDP levels are a risk. He says the US, like others, needs a fiscal plan showing how deficits will be bent as a share of GDP.
“the biggest tail risk I see still starts with governments around the world and witness what's going on in France. Government's historically highly leveraged.”at 11:59
Bloomberg Surveillance: Previewing the Fed Meeting and AI IPOs ·
Gary Gensler · MIT Sloan School of Management
US has limited fiscal room to respond to a downturn, though its economy is larger than France's.
Gensler says France has higher debt relative to its economy and lacks fiscal room to step in. The US has limited fiscal room too, but as a bigger and more significant economy it is in a somewhat better position. He sees the long-term structural debt load as a concern.
“But see what's happening in France, who has even a higher debt to economy. They don't have what's called fiscal room to step in. We have limited fiscal room as well.”at 27:53
Bloomberg Surveillance: Previewing the Fed Meeting and AI IPOs ·
Axel Merk · Merk Investments
US deficits have no credible path to sustainability; bond markets will eventually force fiscal reform.
Merk says US deficits are incredible and no path in sight shows they will come down in earnest and become sustainable. He expects a bond market reaction at some point that tells the fiscal side to get its act together, citing France and Brazil as examples of markets reacting to fiscal concerns. Monetary policy cannot fix bad fiscal policy, and the Fed should not egg on Congress to issue more debt. He expects more volatility as a result but says no politician wants to discuss deficits beyond lip service.
“The deficits that are just incredible and there's no path in sight that shows that our deficits will come down in earnest and will become sustainable is there.”at 12:32
The Julia La Roche Show: #425 Axel Merk: I Sat Down With Kevin Warsh — What the Fed Is Really Up To and Where Gold Goes Next ·
Axel Merk · Merk Investments
The US fiscal situation is quite dire, in Merk's view.
Merk says the fiscal situation is quite dire in his view and layers this on top of his expectation that an AI bust would push rates lower and help miners. He gives no specific figures or mechanism beyond that.
“the fiscal situation is quite dire in my view”at 42:00
The Julia La Roche Show: #425 Axel Merk: I Sat Down With Kevin Warsh — What the Fed Is Really Up To and Where Gold Goes Next ·
Brett Rentmeester · WindRock Wealth Management
Federal debt and rising rates make interest costs a crushing share of tax revenue, pointing toward crisis.
He cites about $40T of official US debt, with multiples more in off-balance-sheet obligations. Projecting today's rates onto that debt gives a forward interest expense of roughly $1.5T a year, about 20% of the budget and 28% of all tax dollars collected. He argues debt and rising rates are now linked with no clear plan, and that governments tend to print money as buyer of last resort. He expects a major breakdown: one or two of these pressures will blow up and everyone will panic, with the reset likely in the early-to-mid 2030s. He says rates won't rise in a straight line and that the budgets don't tie out.
“We have 40,000,000,000,000 of official debt and multiples of that if you look in off balance sheet type things. But just on that alone, putting today's rates on it, we're projecting a forward looking interest expense of maybe 1,500,000,000,000 a year. Well, that's about 20% of the budget, but it's about 28% of all tax dollars collected.”at 7:30
Lyn Alden · Lyn Alden Investment Strategy
US is in fiscal dominance: deficits now outweigh bank lending in new money, blunting Fed tools.
Alden argues the Fed's main tools, interest rates and the balance sheet, work by changing bank lending. That channel matters much less now because structural deficits are the bigger source of new money. She says annual net new Treasury issuance is now bigger than the sum of net new bank loans and net new corporate bond issuance, so the Fed cannot control inflation by targeting bank lending. Higher rates also raise deficits because interest income flows to cash holders and interest costs flow to the government. She says the Fed's tools are not geared to this kind of inflation, and the problem is structural fiscal deficits rather than monetary policy.
“I don't think they should abandon it, but I think the challenge is that the Fed's tools are just not geared toward this type of inflation. And so, I mean, the point that I've made a lot in macro is that we're we're in fiscal dominance now, not monetary dominance.”at 2:47
Wealthion: The Treasury’s Gold Revaluation Play | Lyn Alden ·
Larry McDonald · The Bear Traps Report
The $40T debt can only be escaped by default or inflation, so financial repression is coming.
He says the US has a $40T debt load, with deficits running around 6% of GDP, and that the policy response since COVID and the 2023 regional bank crisis has been about $17T, against $4T after Lehman. With foreign buyers such as China and Japan reducing holdings, he thinks the Fed and Treasury will work together on financial repression, which pushes money out of financial assets and into hard assets. He sees only two exits, default or inflating the debt away.
“The only way out, Maggie, of a $40,000,000,000,000 debt hole, there's two ways. Default or inflate your way out.”at 29:27
Wealthion: Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year ·
Larry McDonald · The Bear Traps Report
US debt far exceeds government assets, so Washington may reprice gold or use it as collateral.
Larry compares the US to the UK 80 years ago, an empire in decline that moved out of Hong Kong and monetized assets. The US has assets like the Tennessee Valley Authority and parts of Yellowstone, but its debt is far larger, and government assets are small relative to the debt. He expects tricks such as repricing gold or posting it as collateral to support the Treasury market.
“But we have a lot more debt than our government assets... the government assets relative to the debt is actually pretty crazy small... They wouldn't reprice the gold, maybe put it up as collateral.”at 37:17
Wealthion: Larry McDonald: S&P 500 Could Crash 30% Over the Next Year ·
Trey Reik · Bristol Gold Group LLC
Higher fed funds would raise government T-bill servicing costs on its debt, creating feedback loops.
Reik says a Fed rate hike would raise the government's cost of servicing its T-bill debt, a point he says is often overlooked. He cites a figure of about $1.2 trillion, though the transcript does not make clear whether that is the debt or the annual servicing bill. He argues that rising debt costs, along with Treasury liquidity issues, create feedback loops that make it unlikely the Fed will tighten as much as expected.
“We haven't even talked about the impact of raising, you know, fed funds on the government's treasury bill service of its debt, but we're at 1,200,000,000,000.”at 17:43
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
Benn Steil · Council on Foreign Relations
The US deficit trajectory is ugly, with no political will to cut and Treasury optimism about growth unsupported.
The US deficit is running about 6% of GDP. Steil says neither Congress nor the executive branch has any serious willingness to cut anything. The last serious bipartisan attempt was Simpson-Bowles under Obama, which failed to get a majority and was abandoned. Now the Treasury Secretary says not to worry and that the US will grow out of it, but the numbers do not bear that out. The deficit is also crowding out investment and pushing rates up.
“there's no longer any serious willingness in Congress or in the executive branch to [...] cut anything.”at 23:56
The Real Eisman Playbook: Inflation, The Deficit & Why the Dollar Stays King with Benn Steil | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 81 ·
Paul Kedrosky · SK Ventures
Stretched US debt limits the government's capacity to bail out the economy in the next crisis.
Kedrosky argues the state's capacity to keep bailing out the system is already stretched, because the US is still working off the last two or three bailouts. He says this is visible in the size of the debt and deficit and in the market punishing US sovereign debt. He also argues that 1930s-style austerity pressure makes fiscal rescue less likely, so a sharper fall would come before policy shifts.
“the state capacity to continue to do these bailouts is very stretched and you can see that because of the size of The US debt and deficit”at 39:43
Hidden Forces: The Most Dangerous Investment Cycle In History | Paul Kedrosky ·
Ted Mortonson · Baird
AI-driven growth and hyperscaler taxes are the way to reduce the US deficit.
He says AI is so disruptive that it is the only way for government to reduce a $40 trillion deficit. He expects unique taxes on hyperscalers and strong growth to help. He also cites the government's stake in Intel, which he says has returned three times the investment and goes into the Treasury coffers. He sees government picking early winners as a way to reduce the deficit, though he dislikes government picking winners.
“It's really the only way if you're in government to reduce a $40,000,000,000,000 deficit, and we're gonna see some very unique taxes against the hyperscalers over time.”at 19:31
Excess Returns: Baird's Tech Strategist Says This Isn't 2000. So Why Is He Warning Against Buying the Dip? ·
78 older views on US deficit & government debt are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Ask your AI about US deficit & government debt
Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view on US deficit & government debt from the market's podcasts. Ask who's worried, who isn't, who changed their mind, and why.
Chorus reports what speakers said. It isn't investment advice.