Speaker · Updated
Trey Reik: latest market views
Bristol Gold Group LLC
Summary
Managing Member of the precious-metals consultancy Bristol Gold Group and former Senior Portfolio Manager and Precious Metal Strategist at Sprott Asset Management USA, known for his gold-market and monetary-policy research.
Chorus has 19 views from Trey Reik across 2 episodes on Wealthion since October 26, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on VanEck Gold Miners ETF; bearish on CoreWeave.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- VanEck Gold Miners ETFBullish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Mandatory spending plus interest now exceeds tax receipts, and the deficit is nearing an unmanageable inflection point.
Total federal debt is about $41 trillion, and the short-term rate paid to finance Treasury debt is $1.2 trillion annualized and growing. Non-discretionary spending (entitlements, veterans, and interest), before defense, is already 105% of tax receipts. That spending is growing 7.5% while receipts grow about 4%. Reik has studied the deficit for two decades and sees the cost of financing it approaching an unmanageable inflection point.
“As Luke Croman points out, that's already 105% of tax receipts. That doesn't even include the defense budget, and it's growing at 7.5% and tax receipts are growing at four.”at 31:31
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Gold's two-year performance shows markets are worried about a deficit-driven feedback loop.
Reik identifies himself with the gold trade, which has studied the deficit for two decades and has been waiting for a point where it becomes unmanageable. He reads gold's performance over the past two years as evidence that investors are starting to worry about a feedback loop from government debt and financing costs, a sign that the deficit concern is becoming mainstream.
“And I think clearly Gold's performance over the past two years is demonstrating that we're in one of those periods where people are starting to worry about a feedback loop.”at 31:57
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Fed officials signalled no urgency to hike, and short rates cannot rise much given the debt load, so a hike is unlikely.
After long yields spiked in early October, Fed officials including Williams, Jefferson, Bowman and Warsh said within 48 hours that no urgent action or October hike was needed, and rates fell back. Reik believes the Fed is concerned that short rates cannot rise much because of the debt load, financing costs and a negative national savings rate. Market odds of a hike before year-end have fallen sharply, and he expects them to keep falling to December.
“And they're, I think, pretty concerned that short rates really can't go up much from this level.”at 34:29
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
If long yields spike, the Fed would step in with yield curve control, as it has already floated.
Reik argues that if long-end rates rise sharply, the Fed would step in on the long end rather than let yields run. Treasury officials have already discussed yield curve control over the past two months. He reasons that the central bank's inability to raise short rates much means it would use tools on the long end if needed.
“But I just think in this environment, if we get to that type of an event, ... So if the Fed needs to step in on the long end, they're gonna do that too.”at 34:53
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
The AI build-out is drawing large amounts of capital from the system, making the economy more vulnerable.
Reik says there is a lot of stress in the system, citing rising debt, financing costs and a negative national savings rate. He adds that the AI build-out is pulling large amounts of capital out of the economy, which makes everything more vulnerable. He gives no figures for the capital involved, so this is a qualitative concern.
“there's a lot of stress out there. The AI build out is sucking lots of capital out of the system, which is making everything more vulnerable.”at 36:45
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
France is close to disintegrating, with its bond yield spread widened to 177 basis points.
Reik says France is close to disintegrating after the events of the past two weeks. He cites its yield spread to bonds rising to 177 basis points as evidence of the strain, and he presents this as an additional source of systemic stress alongside US debt and the AI build-out.
“And let's not forget that France is close to sort of disintegrating in the past two weeks. And their yield spread to bonds is up to 177 basis points.”at 36:54
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Long-term Treasury yields are unlikely to rise much further, and the Fed would step in if needed.
Reik says the likelihood of long rates rising much from here is very, very slim, citing reasons he had already given earlier in the conversation. He frames the fiscal problem as global, not just a US issue, and describes the bond market as near a point where rates cannot rise much further. If that rise did happen, he argues the Fed would have to intervene to cap it, and he notes the Fed has done this before. He calls himself a non-specialist in bonds, so the view is more of a general macro judgment than a detailed rates forecast.
“But I do think the likelihood of long rates increasing much from here are very, very slim for the reasons that I mentioned. And if the Fed has to get involved to make that happen, they certainly know how to do it.”at 38:17
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
VanEck Gold Miners ETFBullish
Gold miner ETF GDX holding up better than gold, a signal that long-term gold equity investors are not bearish.
Since the March high, gold is down about 25% while GDX is down only about 29%. Reik says that for someone who has followed gold equities as long as he has, a 25% drop in gold would normally drag miners down much more than four percentage points. He reads this as a signal that gold equity investors, who tend to have longer horizons than gold traders, are not treating the decline as a breakdown. He concludes that the stocks may already be signalling that gold's downturn is not a serious problem.
“if you told me gold was going to be down 25%, I would certainly think the stocks would be doing much worse than four percentage points lower. So the stocks may already be giving us a signal.”at 40:07
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Gold's year-to-date pullback is a reasonable correction after big gains; $4,000 should hold as a floor.
Gold is down about 6% year to date after gaining 27% in 2024, 65% in 2025 and 25% in January. Reik says that if any other stock or commodity fell this much after those gains, it would look like a reasonable correction, so he does not read much into the drop. He calls the January surge a blow-off that broke technical levels, but thinks gold has performed better than people expected given the strength in long-term Treasury yields. He expects the $4,000 level to act as a durable floor. Once investors lower their expectations for a Fed rate-hiking cycle, he thinks gold could get a good push higher.
“I personally think 4,000 is going to prove to be a very durable floor. And once people reduce their expectations for a Fed rate hiking cycle, I think gold could have a pretty good spur.”at 40:29
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Gold bull market isn't over; long-term fundamentals intact, and gold should rally once short-term shocks pass.
Reik argues the gold bull market is intact despite last week's disappointing performance. He says the three longer-term fundamentals he tracks (anti-dollar sentiment, the US deficit and Fed credibility) are fully intact. He treats recent weakness as a short-term knee-jerk reaction to oil prices rising and Fed tightening fears, and expects gold to rally once that passes. He ties the bullion outlook to a one-year horizon, saying the gold equity setup bodes well for what bullion does over the next year.
“in my opinion, the gold bull market is absolutely not over. And I think these big three fundamentals that we focus on are actually getting more and more intense.”at 2:27
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
Gold's $4,000 level is key; if it breaks, gold could flirt with $3,600 over two to three months.
Reik says the $4,000 level matters psychologically and technically. Futures traders probed below it last week, but gold held. He says he is not a technician, but acknowledges technicals drove the recent moves. If gold fails to hold $4,000 in the short run, he expects a two-to-three-month move that could flirt with $3,600. The downside case is conditional on the $4,000 level breaking.
“So if 4,000 doesn't hold in the short one, we're probably looking, in my opinion, at a two to three month flirt with 3,600”at 4:06
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
Fed likely aware of Treasury liquidity fragility after the coordinated late-September yield spike.
Ten- and thirty-year Treasury yields broke out of their trading range after strong S&P PMI data on September 28, and the move was coordinated across the Fed. Reik argues the Fed's push to tamp down rate-hike expectations shows it is aware of systemic fragility or liquidity problems in the Treasury market, and that it is concerned about them. He says this is why gold has suffered in the short term, though he views the negatives as leading to stronger long-term fundamentals.
“I would argue that it's because they're aware of systemic fragilities or liquidity in the treasury market. ... There's something that they're concerned about because that was a very coordinated effort.”at 7:02
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
Gold doesn't track CPI inflation; it responds to monetary inflation, so it isn't an effective CPI hedge.
Reik argues CPI inflation and gold have little to do with each other, using a hedonically adjusted hot dog price example to make the point. He says gold should rise at the same rate as ordinary prices under CPI-type inflation, and says he can show that on charts over decades. Gold should outpace other prices only under monetary inflation, which is the basis of his gold thesis. He concludes gold has never functioned as an effective CPI hedge, and treats monetary developments such as Treasury policy and debt as more important than CPI or PCE prints.
“I personally don't think CPI inflation and gold have much to do with each other. ... But if you have monetary inflation, ... then gold should go up faster than other prices in that economy.”at 8:15
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI build-out will prove the most egregious misallocation of capital in history.
Reik says he has written that the AI infrastructure build-out will prove to be the most egregious misallocation of capital in history. He qualifies this by saying the market has decided otherwise, so his view is a contrarian call. The transcript gives no specific evidence beyond the CoreWeave bond stress he cites elsewhere in the discussion.
“I've written about it being what I think will prove to be the most egregious misallocation of capital in history.”at 10:37
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave's four-month-old bonds trading near 78 cents signal stress in the riskiest AI ecosystem.
Reik says CoreWeave's bonds, issued only four months earlier, have started trading at about 78 cents on the dollar, which he calls a problem. He admits he does not fully understand the implications. He argues the drop caused ten- and thirty-year Treasury yields to reverse and fall, because capital was moving out of what he sees as the riskiest parts of the AI ecosystem and into Treasuries. He expects gold to benefit from that rotation.
“[CoreWeave's] bonds started, which were just issued four months ago, started trading at about 78¢ on the dollar. That's a problem.”at 11:03
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
Gold ETF holdings rising through the drop suggests patient investors are buying bullion from short-term traders.
Reik says that while gold met price resistance over the past two months, ETF flows remained very strong, and ETF holdings increased through the past month. He concludes that patient holders with a proper time frame are buying bullion at good prices from short-term traders. He says retail investors are fairly paralyzed and inactive, so he thinks the buyers are the smarter money, whether retail or institutional. He also suggests the price weakness was partly liquidity-driven selling to cover losses in AI and growth stocks.
“But through this past month, ETF holdings have been increasing. ... people who have a proper time frame in looking at their bullion investments are swiping some pretty good prices from the short term traders.”at 12:04
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
Fed won't follow through on two or three rate hikes into Q1; it is tamping down hike expectations.
Reik says the odds of an October Fed hike fell from about 70% on September 28 to roughly 10% now. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams signalled no urgency, and Chair Warsh does not want premature hikes. He argues the Fed is pushing down hike expectations because of concern about liquidity and fragility in the Treasury market after the coordinated yield spike. He doubts the market's expectation of two or three hikes into Q1 will come true, citing Treasury market liquidity, the large stock of debt, and the feedback loop that higher policy rates would create in government debt servicing.
“I I personally think people who think the Fed is gonna raise rates two or three times here into the first quarter, that I don't think that will prove to be the case.”at 17:23
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
Higher fed funds would raise government T-bill servicing costs on its debt, creating feedback loops.
Reik says a Fed rate hike would raise the government's cost of servicing its T-bill debt, a point he says is often overlooked. He cites a figure of about $1.2 trillion, though the transcript does not make clear whether that is the debt or the annual servicing bill. He argues that rising debt costs, along with Treasury liquidity issues, create feedback loops that make it unlikely the Fed will tighten as much as expected.
“We haven't even talked about the impact of raising, you know, fed funds on the government's treasury bill service of its debt, but we're at 1,200,000,000,000.”at 17:43
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
VanEck Gold Miners ETFBullish
Gold miners' smaller drawdown than bullion signals a durable investor base; gold equities should lead any rebound.
Since the recent high, gold is down about 25% while the large-cap gold miners (GDX) are down only 29%. Reik says that in past cycles gold stocks fell 150-200% of gold's decline, so the smaller drawdown is a positive signal. He credits gold equity investors as a fairly long-term group. He also argues gold equities have historically doubled before the S&P 500 rises 10-15% after sell-offs, so investors should back up the truck during such troughs. He links this to a constructive view of bullion over the next year.
“And the GDX, which are the large cap gold miners, is only down 29%. ... gold equity investors are by and large a pretty long term group.”at 18:42
Wealthion: Gold Could Plunge to $3,600 If This Critical Level Breaks ·
Shows
- Wealthion · 2 episodes
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