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What podcasters are saying about US Treasuries & yields
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In the past 30 days, 145 speakers on 37 finance podcasts discussed US Treasuries & yields in 285 views. Chorus has followed US Treasuries & yields since September 22, 2026: 297 views from 149 speakers on 38 shows.
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Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
10-year yield should stall near 5%, since it trades about 100bp over the terminal Fed funds rate.
Hatfield argues the term premium is about 100bp in most countries. US Fed funds usually sit 75-100bp above inflation, so the 10-year trades roughly 100bp over the terminal Fed funds rate. He expects the Fed to hike once more to about 4% with inflation near 2%, which points to a 10-year near 5%. He says futures do not predict cash rates, and he cites his earlier call that the 10-year would reach 5%. He is not a bull on Treasuries at these levels.
“I think it's gonna stall out at five because the Fed is hell bent stupidly on raising rates one more time.”at 35:28
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Treasury selloff has one cause: a hawkish Fed, not multiple factors.
Hatfield argues against momentum-style explanations of the Treasury selloff. He says there are not ten reasons the Treasury sold off; there is one, a hawkish Fed. He offers this as a simple rule of thumb for the Fed policy rate and Treasury yields.
“There's not 10 reasons why the treasury sold off. There's one. It's because of a hawkish fed.”at 37:06
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Inflation-expectation-driven bond selloffs would act as monetary tightening that slows the economy.
Hatfield says the fear that a higher inflation target would make the bond market sell off is the expectations theory of inflation, which he calls discredited. If expectations do rise and yields sell off, mortgage rates tighten and the economy slows, so the bond selloff itself is a huge monetary tightening. He treats that as the key dynamic.
“Now inflation's gonna be way higher, and things will... The bond market sells off. That's a huge monetary tightening.”at 43:36
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Darius Dale · 42 Macro
Long-end Treasuries are severely underpriced for a Q4 2018-style risk-off deflation scenario.
The sixty-forty model only works in a risk-off sentiment and a deflation regime, and the market is currently in an inflation regime. The only thing likely to push it into deflation is a slowdown in data center buildout. A Q4 2018-style episode would send the street into long-end Treasuries, and he views that risk as severely underpriced.
“[Buy] the long end of the treasury curve. You're talking about a risk off deflation market regime, a q four twenty eighteen style scenario where the street goes, buy that.”at 17:55
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections ·
Meb Faber · Cambria Investment Management
A 4.75% ten-year Treasury yield is better than near-zero, but does not signal a blockbuster bond decade.
The ten-year Treasury yield was around 4.75% at the end of July. That is a meaningful improvement over the near-zero yields of a few years earlier, but it is not a basis for expecting strong bond returns over the coming decade. Combined with the expensive US stock market, the 40% bond leg of a 60/40 portfolio does not support blockbuster return expectations.
“And the 40 is relying on the ten year treasury yield, which today is around 4.75%... There's no crystal balls in investing and while 4.75 yield on US treasuries is something, and certainly better than the near zero yields we had a few years ago, that combination doesn't necessarily scream blockbuster decade to me”at 6:08
The Meb Faber Show: Cambria Fund Profile – Asset Allocation Suite ·
Collin Martin · Charles Schwab
Long-term yields may carry a rising term premium because the Fed's direction is unclear.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose after the meeting. Martin suspects this reflects an uncertainty premium. The term premium is the extra yield investors earn for holding longer bonds in case short-term rate expectations do not play out. Without clear guidance on where the Fed is heading, investors may demand more term premium. That would show up in higher long-term yields as investors struggle to forecast policy over the coming months or quarters. He presents this as a possible explanation, not a settled conclusion.
“We don't really know which way Kevin [Warsh] is leaning right now. So maybe you start to see more of a term premium show up in higher long term yields just because we don't really know what's happening or what to expect over the next few months or quarters.”at 7:06
On Investing (Charles Schwab): The Fed Holds, but the Pressure Builds ·
Collin Martin · Charles Schwab
Reducing Treasury supply should pull long-term yields lower, and Bessent appears to favour that route.
Martin says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seems clearly to want lower rates. Bessent raised the Treasury buyback operation a few months ago. Martin argues that cutting supply while demand stays constant should push long-term yields down. He does not expect much change at the upcoming quarterly refunding announcement, which covers coupon issuance versus bills. He says a surprise shift in issuance mix could move yields accordingly. The view is mechanical and based on supply and demand.
“And a way to bring long term yields down is to reduce the supply because the laws of supply and demand suggest if you reduce the supply and you keep demand constant, that should pull yields lower.”at 16:53
On Investing (Charles Schwab): The Fed Holds, but the Pressure Builds ·
Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas
Yield curve shape is about to change after bull steepening; he has been in the flattener camp all year.
Verrone says he has been in the curve-flattening camp all year, but yesterday the curve bull-steepened enough that he thinks the view needs to be revisited. Yields are falling, with the 10-year down 37 basis points from its high. He reads this as a possible change in curve shape rather than a one-day move, which matters for how he reads the market's cyclical leadership.
“We've been in the curve flatter camp, all year. Yesterday, you actually got some bull steepening, and enough so where I think we have to revisit is curve shape, about to change here.”at 20:19
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
Would fade the bond rally because someone must still borrow the money at higher rates.
Even if an AI slowdown or a recession pushes yields down for a while on sentiment, Treasury will still have to finance a much larger deficit at the next quarterly refunding. Gromen expects issuance to be closer to $3.5 trillion than the $2 trillion previously assumed, so the long end would sell off again. The market has been demanding a higher rate, so he would fade any bond rally unless the Fed or Treasury intervened with buybacks or shifted issuance to the short end.
“I would fade the bond rally all day long because one way or another, someone's going to borrow that money and the market's been demanding a higher rate.”at 30:16
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Rob Sechan · NewEdge Wealth
Fixed income is as attractive as ever as a shock absorber against equity volatility.
Sechen says one of his two bets is that the shock absorber investors get from fixed income is still as attractive as it has ever been. He pairs this with the view that the AI spending theme will not go away. In the current volatile tech environment, bonds provide a cushion against equity swings.
“There's two bets I'm making. Number one, the shock absorber that you get from fixed income right now is still as attractive as it's ever been.”at 22:52
CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·
Liz Thomas · SoFi
Treasuries are a really good alternative to equities in the current lumpy tech market.
Thomas agrees with Sechen that fixed income, and treasuries in particular, offer a really good alternative to equities. She says she has been pounding the table on treasuries for about a month. Her broader point is that the AI trade is lumpy and no longer rewards anything labeled AI, so investors should be careful where they put dollars and treasuries provide a sound alternative.
“fixed income, particularly treasuries, which I've been pounding the table about for the last month or so, are offering a really good alternative.”at 24:40
CNBC Halftime Report: Tech Earnings Weigh on the AI Trade 10/29/26 ·
Gary Cohn · IBM
Government and AI data center borrowing demand is steepening the yield curve.
Cohn argues the demand for capital to fund the US government and the capital needs of AI data centers drive forward markets, creating a dislocation between fed funds and the two-year and the curve is steep. The ten-year has stayed around 5% despite this.
“the demand for capital to fund the US government, the demand for capital in the AI data centers, it is what is driving the forward market and why there's a dislocation.”at 32:06
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Mike Feroli · J.P. Morgan
Term premia are higher than five months ago but not jumped; with $30T debt every basis point matters.
Feroli looks at most measures of term premia and finds they have not jumped materially, though they are higher than five months ago. He links the Treasury market to the debt load: with debt around $30 trillion, every basis point of yield matters. This frames his concern about long yields, which he says should be read against the uncertainty about the Fed's reaction function.
“I think if you look at most measures of term premia, they haven't jumped materially higher, but they are higher certainly than we were five months ago.”at 9:37
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Gargi Chaudhuri · BlackRock
Intermediate bonds offer cushion: with 10-year yields above 5%, the belly loses less if rates rise.
With the 10-year above 5%, Chaudhuri says the bonds have a large cushion. Even if rates rise by 100 basis points over the next twelve months, an investor in the belly of the curve loses less than in other parts of the curve, and if rates fall, the position gains from positive convexity. Clients are moving into the front end and belly, and October saw the strongest month of inflows into fixed-income ETFs ever. Her summary is equities are great, bonds are greater, and bonds are back for income and ballast.
“Investors are telling us that at these level of fields, call it over 5% on the ten year point, you have so much cushion built in. And what I mean by cushion is that rates can go up in the next, call it, twelve months by a 100 basis points. And if you're in that belly, you don't lose as much money.”at 14:12
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Long-end yields rising is a form of tightening, partly driven by the Fed letting its balance sheet shrink.
The Fed has raised its policy rate only a quarter point since Warsh came on board, but its balance sheet has stopped growing and it is letting long-term yields rise. That rise is tightening. The policy rate is still near zero, which is why the Fed is cautious.
“certainly having the long end of the yield curve going up is a form of tightening, there's no question about it.”at 16:11
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Global bond selloff reflects end of central bank monetization and deficit-driven debt; no one wants to go long.
Central banks such as the ECB, the Fed and the BoE have a history of monetizing national debt, but they are no longer doing so as they once did. Fiscal policy is out of control in the US, France and the UK, with US debt around $40 trillion and France's at 120% of GDP. Because no fiscal solution is in sight, long-term yields must rise and bond prices may fall further.
“there has been a long history of central banks monetizing their national debts... the central banks are not monetizing that debt as they did once, that interest rates have to go up... Who would want to go long in bonds under those conditions?”at 17:57
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Darrell Cronk · Wells Fargo
Ten-year Treasury yield to reach about 5.75% next year, possibly 6%.
After a short-covering rally pushed the 10-year down to about 5%, he expects the long end to move higher. He sees the 10-year north of 5.50% next year, more likely around 5.75%, and says 6% is possible. This is his firm's view, and it is tied to the Fed staying tight and to heavy issuance.
“We think next year, the tenure is north of five fifty, probably more like five seventy five. Yes. Okay. So six is possible.”at 4:58
Bloomberg Surveillance: Outlook for Inflation, Oil, and Tech ·
Ira Jersey · Bloomberg Intelligence
Treasury yields should settle near 5%, tied to about 6% nominal GDP growth.
His analysis starts from expected nominal GDP for the next two or three years, which sets the baseline for long-term rates. With about 6% nominal GDP, Treasuries should yield about 5%, with a liquidity premium, and corporate yields for non-AAA issuers should sit near or above 6%.
“we start all of our analysis with what do we think nominal GDP is gonna be for the next two or three years... If you have 6% nominal GDP, you expect five ish percent treasury yields”at 9:15
Bloomberg Surveillance: Outlook for Inflation, Oil, and Tech ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
She expects higher-for-longer rates, with long rates at or slightly above current levels in 2027-28.
Zelman does not try to forecast rates herself, but she personally believes rates will stay higher for longer. Zelman's modeling uses blue-chip consensus and the forward yield curve, which implies rates at current levels or slightly higher in 2027 and 2028. That is the assumption behind the housing outlook, so the slow recovery depends on it.
“we use the forward yield curve. We're not smart enough, Maggie, you know, forecast rates me personally, I think we're higher for longer.”at 17:15
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Trey Reik · Bristol Gold Group LLC
If long yields spike, the Fed would step in with yield curve control, as it has already floated.
Reik argues that if long-end rates rise sharply, the Fed would step in on the long end rather than let yields run. Treasury officials have already discussed yield curve control over the past two months. He reasons that the central bank's inability to raise short rates much means it would use tools on the long end if needed.
“But I just think in this environment, if we get to that type of an event, ... So if the Fed needs to step in on the long end, they're gonna do that too.”at 34:53
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Trey Reik · Bristol Gold Group LLC
Long-term Treasury yields are unlikely to rise much further, and the Fed would step in if needed.
Reik says the likelihood of long rates rising much from here is very, very slim, citing reasons he had already given earlier in the conversation. He frames the fiscal problem as global, not just a US issue, and describes the bond market as near a point where rates cannot rise much further. If that rise did happen, he argues the Fed would have to intervene to cap it, and he notes the Fed has done this before. He calls himself a non-specialist in bonds, so the view is more of a general macro judgment than a detailed rates forecast.
“But I do think the likelihood of long rates increasing much from here are very, very slim for the reasons that I mentioned. And if the Fed has to get involved to make that happen, they certainly know how to do it.”at 38:17
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Danny Moses · Moses Ventures
Heavy short-dated Treasury maturities will keep short-term rates elevated despite Fed hikes.
Danny argues that hiking would logically reduce 10-year yields. However, Treasury is issuing short-dated bonds, and the share of maturing bonds is higher than ever, which means a lot of short-term refinancing. He says this creates a lot of risk that short-term rates stay higher, which is why he likes gold and thinks the Fed may be one and done.
“But when you start to issue bonds, treasury on the shorter end of the curve like we have, the amount of bonds coming up from maturity now more than ever on a percentage basis creates a lot of risk for short term rates to be higher.”at 49:57
On The Tape with Danny Moses: Lessons From The Great Financial Crisis | "Clear Takes" with Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses ·
Tim Melvin · Community Bank Investor
Rates must come down because interest costs are unsustainable, which would lift discounted bank preferreds.
Interest costs are about $1 trillion this year, roughly 16 to 17% of the budget and a little over 20% of revenue collected, with a deficit near $2 trillion. Melvin says the government is effectively financing its interest, so rates have to come down somehow. He suggests that if the war and oil prices persist, the government could manufacture an economic slowdown that justifies lower rates. When rates fall, heavily discounted preferreds should be quite profitable. Rising rates have pressured preferreds, especially bank preferreds.
“Rates have got to come down. When they do, these heavily discounted preferreds are gonna be pretty profitable.”at 45:51
The Acquirers Podcast: Tim Melvin: Finding Value Where Wall Street Isn’t Looking ·
Brian Tramontozzi · J.P. Morgan
Deficits are inflationary, so an elevated rate environment is likely for the near term.
Tramontozzi argues that deficits are inflationary by nature. From that he concludes that lenders and borrowers should prepare for an elevated interest rate environment for at least the near term or the foreseeable future. Higher base rates feed directly into the spread-widening and cost-of-capital concerns he raises elsewhere.
“Deficits are inflationary just by their nature. And so I think we're preparing to face an elevated interest rate environment for at least the near term or foreseeable future.”at 13:07
J.P. Morgan Making Sense: Sponsors, spreads and stress testing: Navigating 2026’s rate reset ·
Axel Merk · Merk Investments
Long-term real interest rates are off their peak and signal market confidence in the Fed, so policy isn't too tight.
Merk notes that yields are off their peak, particularly long-term real interest rates. He acknowledges pushback on discussing these, since nobody knows long-term inflation, but argues that market measures of long-term real rates are mostly confidence measures on whether the Fed can achieve its goals. He concludes that these readings sound like it is alright to be in the sector, while admitting scenarios where things could turn out badly; he weighs the balance of risks and keeps his allocation.
“We also, by the way, off the peak in the yields. ...on the long term real interest rates. ...there are market measures on these and they are mostly confidence measures on the Fed on what they will be able to achieve.”at 1:18:56
Thoughtful Money: FOMC Live Reaction: Is The Fed Making A Policy Error? | Axel Merk ·
Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury
Fed cuts do not pin long yields; after the 2024 50bp cut, ten-year yields never returned lower.
He says the Fed's 50bp cut in 2024 was followed by ten-year yields that never went back lower. That shows the bond market does not simply follow the Fed. Yields are influenced by many things, including term premium and exogenous factors. He says he always respected the bond market. He suggests the bond market has been doing tightening on the Fed's behalf.
“We saw a 50 basis point rate cut, and ten year yields have... They never been lower since then. So the ten year yield never looked back.”at 12:16
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury
Long-end Treasury yields are tightly correlated with oil prices and crack spreads.
He says the market has shown a very high correlation between oil prices and the ten-year and thirty-year yields, and crack spreads. He expects oil to be better supplied once the Iran conflict ends, which would ease the pressure. Yields have stayed where they are while oil is elevated, and he thinks Fed chair Warsh can steer between growth and inflation.
“I think that we've seen a very high correlation between oil prices and the ten year, the thirty year, the longer end of the market and between crack spreads.”at 13:57
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Jeremy Zirin · UBS Asset Management
Rising yields are the most immediate equity risk, especially if the increase is fast or inflation- or fiscal-driven.
Zirin calls interest rates the most immediate concern for equities. Stocks can usually absorb gradually rising rates, especially when the rise reflects stronger growth, which he believes is happening now. The problem is speed and source: in late September the 10-year Treasury yield rose more than half a percentage point, and stocks have historically struggled to advance during moves that fast. Rates driven by inflation or fiscal concerns are also more damaging than rates rising on growth.
“interest rates are probably the most immediate concern. Equities can often absorb gradually rising interest rates and rates are moving higher for a good reason, such as stronger economic growth.”at 8:02
UBS On-Air: House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management ·
Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners
Bond market is now price-sensitive, with hedge funds and speculators replacing price-insensitive buyers, so yields will be more volatile.
Previously the bond market was price-insensitive, driven by liquidity and size, with global central banks and pension funds as marginal buyers. Pension funds have stepped back after satisfying obligations, and global central banks are repatriating capital. Hedge funds, speculators and institutions have replaced them and are more price-sensitive. Joe argues this means more volatility in both directions, citing yields moving aggressively higher over three weeks and then lower over the last two weeks. The Fed needs to understand this changed bond market for 2026 and 2027.
“What has happened is the bond market has now become price sensitive. The bond market previously was price insensitive. Previously, it was all about liquidity and size... Global central banks are repatriating capital. Who has stepped in now? It's hedge funds. It is speculators.”at 9:53
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Gita Gopinath · Harvard University
Long-term US yields will fall, though by less than in the past due to demand for capital and inflation risk.
Gopinath expects long yields to come down. The fall will likely be smaller than in past episodes because of many sources of demand for capital, including government borrowing and the large fiscal position, along with inflation risk that is more salient now. The monetary transmission to long yields is more impaired than before because of the fiscal environment. The Fed can cut short rates quickly, but the long end is the open question.
“My personal view is that it's still the case that we will see long term yields go down, maybe not as much as has happened in the past because of all these sources of demand for capital, including from the government.”at 9:22
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28th, 2026 ·
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