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Vincent Deluard: latest market views
StoneX
Summary
Vincent Deluard, CFA, is Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, where he writes weekly macro research and advises institutional investors, and he is a former Europe strategist at Ned Davis Research and an adjunct finance professor.
Chorus has 63 views from Vincent Deluard across 2 episodes on Monetary Matters and The Meb Faber Show since October 23, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Anthropic, Hermès International S.C.A. and LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBullish ·
- Hermès International S.C.A.Bullish ·
- LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis VuittonBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
The equity bull market is likely over and a stock bear market has started.
About two-thirds of US stocks trade below their 200-day moving average, and consumer names are collapsing: Nike, Harley-Davidson, Lennar and McDonald's are down 50-60%+ even though the index sits about 2% from its all-time high. He says this is unusual during a Fed hiking cycle. He thinks the market is too sanguine on earnings, the economy and the Fed's ability to raise rates. Earnings and the economy are both weaker than priced, and he expects a bear market in stocks over the next six months.
“Have we entered the end of this equity bull market and started a bear market? I would think so. I mean, most stocks would suggest that.”at 1:07
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Long-term Treasuries are the better bet over six months on liquidity, though value is weak.
He is not bullish on Treasuries on valuation: term premium and yields versus nominal growth look unattractive. The case is liquidity. Selloffs draw buyers, and the early-October yield top was followed by a rally, consistent with quarter-end bottoms. Year-end asset-allocator rebalancing should add demand, and pension funding ratios near 1.15 (the best in about 25 years) let pensions lock in yields with long Treasuries near 5.5% against a roughly 7% discount rate. Bessent is likely to shift issuance toward bills and cut coupons. A debt-ceiling standoff in February-April would halt issuance and drain the roughly $1 trillion TGA, releasing liquidity. When Yellen did this in 2022-23, two-year yields fell about 100bp. With stocks expected to fall, money has to go somewhere, so long Treasuries should do better than stocks over six months.
“I'm not really bullish on treasuries. I don't think it's great value here. But... If the decision comes down to owning stocks or treasuries over the next six months, I don't think there's a question. It has to be long term treasuries.”at 2:30
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
US inflation is in a secular regime and will stay near 3.5-4%, with the Fed redefining its measure.
He is convinced the US is in a secular inflation regime that is spreading across the economy and getting harder to hide. He expects the 3.5-4% range seen now to prevail. He thinks the 2% target will stay on paper, but the measure will change to one that lets the Fed dismiss inflation, since the Fed will find it harder to keep lying about it.
“But, yes, I'm convinced that we are in this kind of secular inflation. And probably that 3.5, 4% range that we are at now will prevail.”at 7:40
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Secular inflation and term premium could push long Treasury yields to 6-7%, with mediocre returns.
Start with 3.5-4% inflation, add roughly 2% real growth, then add a term premium, and long yields could very easily reach 6-7%. Higher carry and some positive convexity mean a world where yields keep rising can still deliver a positive return, especially in the belly of the curve. He is therefore not forecasting a bear market in Treasuries, only mediocre returns, which he still thinks might beat stocks in the short term.
“if you have 3.5, 4% inflation already, you put any estimate of real growth, let's go with 2%, and then you add some term premium. I mean, we could very easily six, 7% on long term yields.”at 8:03
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
US growth is mostly AI capex; excluding it, the economy is weak and slowing.
Hyperscaler capex adds close to 2% of GDP, and without it growth is not great. Tax collections confirm this. Non-withheld personal income tax growth, which captures gig income and capital gains, went from about 30% earlier this year to about 10%. Withheld taxes slowed to about 3.5%. Aggregate personal income tax growth of about 5% would be a dream for France, but the fall from 10% points to a significant economic slowdown. Stock options and RSUs from the AI talent bidding war helped the early-year surge, and that is now fading.
“Where is our growth coming from? It's the AI bubble. And if you take out the close to 2% of GDP that we see in hyperscale CapEx, you realize that that growth is really not that great.”at 9:01
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
100% expensing has halved corporate tax receipts and encourages capital misallocation.
Corporate income tax receipts have fallen about 50% over two years despite a historic earnings boom. The cause is the accelerated depreciation rule that lets firms deduct 100% of capex in the year it is spent. He argues this gives an incentive to misallocate capital, since the write-off is effectively free money that never hits reported earnings, so companies spend because it reduces taxes.
“you're allowed to depreciate 100% of that the year you spend it, which I think also gives an incentive to misallocate capital. It's effectively free money.”at 13:33
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
A Democratic blue wave would gridlock Congress and block major fiscal policy for two years.
He expects a Democratic blue wave in the midterms, with Congress blocking Trump and Trump blowing up Congress. That makes any significant fiscal policy in the next two years nearly impossible. The tariff reversal, individual tax refunds and accelerated depreciation that propped up earnings will all go away, and the fiscal support already pulled forward will not return.
“It's impossible to see any sort of major fiscal policy passing in the next two years if we have, as I expected, blue wave”at 13:52
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
About $300B of fiscal support inflated margins and ends after midterms, so Q3 30% EPS growth looks aggressive.
Three policies boosted corporate profits: the tariff reversal, the individual tax refund and accelerated depreciation. The tariff reversal swung from taking away about $300B to paying out about $150B. Companies such as Walmart, Nike and Target had raised prices to offset tariffs, so the refunds dropped straight into margins. The 2026 individual tax refunds were spent over the summer, offsetting higher gasoline costs, and that margin support was captured by companies. Corporate income tax receipts are down 50% over two years because of the 100% depreciation. Together these add up to more than $300B, about 10% of roughly $3T in US corporate profits. He expects all three to end after the midterms. Analyst estimates of about 30% EPS growth in Q3 look aggressive, and about half of that growth comes from policies about to turn.
“We add these three things together. We have a bit more than $300,000,000,000 in, I would call that fiscal subsidy to corporate margins. ...Well, maybe half of that came from fiscal policies that are about to turn.”at 14:23
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
The Fed faces bad data and sticky inflation, so it won't deliver the hikes priced in.
Markets price close to three Fed hikes over the next 12 months. He thinks that will be hard to deliver. If credit spreads blow out or stocks roll over, the Fed will be in a nightmare: bad growth data and high inflation. Historically the Fed has focused on the employment and growth side of its mandate in that case. So he expects a lower guide, downward growth revisions, and a creative way to dismiss inflation, such as changing the target or index weights, or arguing that AI quality effects mean the inflation is not real. He says the Fed's task force may argue along those lines.
“If we see more credit issues, high yield spreads blow up... if we see a stock market roll over, it's gonna be very hard for the Fed to deliver. I mean, the market's still pricing close to three hikes in the next twelve months.”at 16:59
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Real wages will catch up within 12 months, so wage inflation is hidden and coming.
Across about 15 past oil shocks, real wages fell at first because wages are sticky, but they usually caught up within six to twelve months when the annual negotiation came around. Average hourly earnings are misleading because of composition: the Atlanta Fed wage tracker, which follows the same cohort of workers, shows median wages rising while the average falls. Workers are struggling financially, the labor market is tight, and the energy shock will pass into services. That implies hidden wage inflation even if the wars are resolved.
“And usually, in environments when we have very loose fiscal policy, very tight labor market, and I would argue somewhat accommodative monetary policy, you see real wage catch up, in the next twelve months.”at 22:10
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
The feared AI job apocalypse has not shown up in the labor data.
Layoffs are concentrated in highly paid software, consulting and finance workers, while hiring is in healthcare and low-paid services. Aggregate average hourly earnings look weak because of this composition shift. But the labor market is tight, the border is closed, and the AI job losses that were widely feared a year ago have not materialised. The headlines may have weighed on the margin, but the broad shock has not arrived.
“The labor market is tight. The border is closed. We haven't seen this AI job apocalypse that was feared a year ago.”at 24:27
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Oil could spike to $200+ a barrel on any disruption, given empty reserves and a tight market.
The market is tight. The SPR is empty, China's shadow inventories are gone, and China is importing again. Any disruption could have a parabolic effect on price. Adjusting for higher insurance and transport costs, plus geographic premiums (Brent above WTI, and Oman about $20 above WTI), a $200 headline price would be only the start. Refining margins are also very high, and capacity has been destroyed, so the problem is spreads and refining margins, not just WTI.
“And it's not out of the realm of possibility to see $200 oil. I mean, we have... The SPR is empty.”at 26:13
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
An Iran escalation would push oil and yields up together, hitting stocks and bonds at once.
He sees no prompt resolution in Iran or Russia-Ukraine. The issue is refining margins and destroyed capacity, which will stick. In an escalation, the bill for expensive oil can only be paid by selling Treasuries, so oil and yields would rise together. Stocks, bonds and risk-off currencies like the yen would not work in that scenario. Energy stocks, oil futures and calls are the only hedges. He calls it a tail risk and a reason for caution.
“So we would go back, I think, to a world where oil and yields would go up at the same time.”at 27:21
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Marine Le Pen gains in French polls as riots and Macron's weakness deepen the crisis.
Macron has checked out and is not backing the centrist candidates, and he may want his successor to look worse than he does. The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen benefits from the riots, gaining polling points each day. The far left is also benefiting, so there is no solution for now.
“The far right candidate, Marine Le Pen, is loving this. I mean, every day that the French are rioting, she gets an extra percentage point in the [polling] intentions.”at 34:36
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
France's debt dynamics are unsustainable; devaluing the euro is the only long-term fix.
France runs a deficit of about 5.5% of GDP with no real growth, so r-g is strongly positive and the debt snowballs. Debt issued at negative yields is now repricing to about 5%. About €400B is rolling over, costing roughly €20B in extra interest, which has already wiped out half of the €50B deficit cut the budget targeted. The ECB is shrinking its balance sheet, which adds funding needs. Europe's productivity plans have not generated growth. The solution is financial repression plus a weaker currency, as Japan did with the yen.
“there is absolutely no solution. I think there is a long term solution, which is to just devalue the euro the way we do the yen. I mean, ultimately, that's the only solution.”at 34:52
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
France cannot join Germany's defense spending surge because its public finances are broken.
Germany is expanding fiscally for defense for the first time in a while. France cannot follow because its fiscal position is broken. France already has a sizeable defense sector, and that was helped by Germany's defense industry being held back for historical reasons. That created demand for French defense firms such as Dassault, Thales and Safran. He does not see that tailwind continuing as Germany spends more.
“No. Because... I mean, we broke. So... And we already have a pretty sizable defense sector.”at 36:18
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
German rearmament props up German growth but hurts France by taking export share and competing for demand.
Germany would likely be in recession without its fiscal expansion, although growth is still only about 1% after five years of stagnation. Military spending is a form of stimulus, but Deluard compares it to the broken-window fallacy because it does not add productive capacity. He says the spending is not helping France, and if anything it is taking away from France's exports. Germany's rearmament therefore helps German growth at France's expense.
“Germany rearming is a negative shock for France. It is positive for German growth.”at 36:52
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Europe's energy costs are far above rivals' and are eroding its industrial competitiveness.
France has a nuclear fleet that should give it low power costs, but its electricity is indexed to the Rotterdam gas price because of EU market rules. Germany has high energy costs from the Energiewende subsidies and the closure of its nuclear plants. Europe has also lost Russian gas supply, and may lose more supply from the Middle East and the US. Germany's core exports, cars, machinery and chemicals, are being hit by Chinese competition. The result is a region that pays far more for energy than its neighbours and cannot compete on cost.
“no matter the virtues of German engineers, when you have to pay three times as much on your energy as your neighbor, you're not competitive.”at 42:28
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
France cannot pass its budget or pension reform, and taxes are near the point where they raise less revenue.
The government tried to raise the pension age but had to walk it back. It now has no majority and has failed to pass the budget in each of the last two years. Neither the far left nor the far right supports the pension reform, and both want to lower the retirement age. Deluard says France can't raise taxes much more, since it is probably on the wrong side of the Laffer curve. He does not expect the government to fall, because nobody wants to take over. Eventually the fiscal problem will be solved, but the cost will be large, and whoever makes the decision will be punished politically.
“The government tried raising the pension age, and then it had to walk back on it. And now it's a zombie government. There is not even a majority.”at 46:45
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
The ECB's market-priced hikes look excessive; the ECB will slow hikes and offer little rescue.
The ECB has already hiked twice. Futures markets now price the same path as the Fed's three hikes, which Deluard thinks is absurd given the economic weakness. The ECB is still shrinking its bond portfolio, which adds supply to the market and makes the euro-area fiscal problem worse. He does not expect the ECB to help the crisis, and expects it at most to slow the hikes, hoping the weaker euro does the work. Any currency-led recovery would take time.
“If you look at the future's implied probability, we're on the same track as the Fed's three rate hikes. Now I think that's absolutely crazy.”at 49:38
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Lagarde's early exit sets up an ECB succession crisis; her successor is unlikely to be a Draghi.
Lagarde's term ends around July, but she is reportedly leaving early, possibly for a role at the World Economic Forum. This lets Macron appoint her successor sooner, and the succession will involve complicated horse-trading over nationality, gender and the balance of the ECB. Deluard argues that major stock-market crises tend to start when a new central bank chair arrives, because markets dislike uncertainty. He doubts the successor will be a Draghi-style leader, since Draghi's 'whatever it takes' ended the earlier sovereign-debt crisis and markets rallied after it. Lagarde's successor is unlikely to do the same, so the ECB will not be a stabiliser when the crisis comes.
“most big stock market crisis happen as soon as a new chair. Like, the market doesn't like this uncertainty.”at 51:19
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Brazil's selloff after Lula's win is overdone, since Brazil is hard to govern and hard to damage.
Deluard's local clients had been big buyers of Brazil and sold after the first-round rally. He says the decline was driven by the debates, where Lula beat Bolsonaro's candidate. He argues that Brazil's divided Congress will force compromise and that the central bank is independent, which limits how far policy can deteriorate. Brazil is also a terms-of-trade story: oil output is rising, Petrobras has the expertise to develop new blocks near the Guyana discoveries, and agricultural and mining exports remain strong. He is somewhat optimistic that the market reaction has gone too far.
“Brazil is a notoriously difficult country to govern, which means that it's hard to improve, but it's hard to significantly deteriorate as well.”at 55:23
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Sports, betting & prediction markets
Betting markets are not oracles; they got the Brazil election wrong and have misled before.
The Brazilian election result surprised markets and prediction markets such as Kalshi, which had expected a right-leaning candidate to win. Deluard says the market reaction reflected positioning as much as fundamentals. He argues that people overrate betting markets as an oracle, and that this is not the first time they have been wrong.
“there is this view that the betting markets are, you know, the oracle of truths, and this is not the first time that they get it wrong.”at 58:35
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
The political pendulum is swinging back toward the left; Democrats likely to take the House and Senate.
Deluard argues that the left is not dead and that the strength of the right, the Trumpism movement, is overestimated. Populism feeds both the hard right and the hard left, and the Brazilian result suggests the global swing toward the far right is reversing. He expects the US midterms to confirm this shift, with Democrats winning the House and Senate. That divided government would then limit fiscal support and make a blame game over the economy likely.
“I think people kind of overestimate the strength of the right, the kind of Trumpism... maybe the Brazilian election is the signal that the pendulum is moving the other way, and we'll see the confirmation of the midterms in The US.”at 59:03
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
US faces stagflation: low growth and sticky inflation with no Fed or fiscal backstop.
The 2010s recovery relied on the Fed being able to cut rates or run QE whenever markets or growth wobbled. Since COVID, large deficits (Biden spending, the One Big Beautiful Bill) have acted as a fiscal put. Deluard expects neither to be available over the next two years. Inflation is running above what the Fed wants, which limits its ability to prioritise growth. Fiscal support is set to fade: he expects Democrats to win the House and Senate, with Trump holding veto power, so Congress can't easily add stimulus. If conditions deteriorate, the Fed would be the first place people turn, but it would be constrained. Growth stays weak while inflation remains sticky, which he describes as stagflation.
“In the next two years, I don't really see any of these puts. I mean, I think the Fed on the margin will try to prioritize the growth mandate, but it will be severely constrained by this higher than desired inflation.”at 1:01:08
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
The Fed put has mostly expired; inflation constrains the Fed from rescuing markets or growth.
In the 2010s the Fed could bail out any problem by cutting rates or restarting QE, which kept markets up. Deluard argues that this backstop is largely gone. Inflation is above target, so the Fed cannot easily cut to support asset prices or growth. Combined with the expected end of fiscal support, he sees no effective put for the next two years.
“So the Fed put this is... Has mostly expired, and the fiscal put in as a new part is going to go away.”at 1:01:24
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
A Democratic-led period of higher US taxation would be a poor backdrop for asset prices.
Deluard expects that if the economy weakens, the fiscal response will turn into a blame game. Trump will argue that markets were at highs under his majority, and Democrats will be blamed for the downturn. He thinks a period of taxation would suit Democrats politically and help them going into 2028. He notes that taxation has historically been a poor environment for almost any asset.
“a period of taxation would not be bad for the Democrats going into 2028... yes, taxation, which is historically not a great time for really any asset.”at 1:02:22
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
AnthropicBullish
Anthropic's IPO could give equities one last pop before a bear market.
Deluard expects the Anthropic IPO to be a late-cycle event. Investment bankers want to be paid and there is a lot of money around, so the deal could be used to pump the market one more time. He sees this as a short-lived lift before equities roll over, not as a sign of a lasting uptrend. This is a brief, cynical view with little supporting analysis.
“I mean, maybe we can pump it up just one last time to get like a... You know, on the Anthropic IPO. Right? Because the investment bankers need to be paid.”at 1:02:59
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
US equities are likely to be lower in six to twelve months after a possible final rally.
Deluard says there is a graveyard of people who have called a top, so he is cautious about timing. He acknowledges the bull case is not dead, because earnings are still decent and an IPO such as Anthropic's could give the market one last push. Even so, he expects equities to be lower in six to twelve months, so he sees the top as near with the market rolling over after any final rally.
“if you ask me in six, twelve months, I think equities are lower.”at 1:03:29
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Europe needs a weaker euro to restore competitiveness, and the adjustment will be messy and crisis-driven.
Europe is paying more for energy than its competitors and losing export share to Chinese cars, machinery and chemicals. It is therefore getting poorer and losing competitiveness. Productivity gains are too slow to fix this, so the realistic route is currency depreciation. Deluard expects the adjustment to come through repeated crises rather than through a deliberate policy. The euro trade he holds is built on this view. It works whether Europe fixes its problems through a grand bargain that lets the euro weaken, or whether it is forced into the adjustment through a crisis.
“if it does happen, the solution really is weaker euro, stronger Asian currency.”at 1:04:55
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
33 older views from Vincent Deluard are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- Monetary Matters · 1 episode
- The Meb Faber Show · 1 episode
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