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What podcasters are saying about US jobs & labor market
Summary
In the past 30 days, 24 speakers on 16 finance podcasts discussed US jobs & labor market in 38 views. Chorus has followed US jobs & labor market since September 23, 2026: 39 views from 25 speakers on 17 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Jeff Snider · 7
- Eric Basmajian · 4
- Steve Van Metre · 3
- David Rosenberg · 3
- Holly Wade · 2
- Kevin Warsh · 1
- Collin Martin · 1
- Danielle DiMartino Booth · 1
- Daryl Fairweather · 1
- Vincent Deluard · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Kevin Warsh · Federal Reserve
Employment conditions are quite positive, with lower unemployment and claims at generational lows.
Warsh cited the jobless rate, which is lower than a year ago, and payroll growth that is noticeably above last year's pace. The four-week moving average of unemployment insurance claims continues to run at the lowest level in generations. On this basis he concluded that the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate is in quite a positive place.
“So on the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, conditions are quite positive.”at 3:00
The David Lin Report: Fed Split Over Rates: Why Didn't The Fed Hike Today? ·
Collin Martin · Charles Schwab
Labor market is steady and balanced, and slowing wage growth would help the inflation outlook.
Unemployment has held in a tight range for about 20 straight months, at 4.2% in September, and Martin expects it to stay between 4% and 4.5%. He calls that good news, since it remains low by historical standards. He expects year-over-year average hourly earnings growth of 2.9%, which would be the first reading below 3% since May 2021. Slower earnings growth would help the inflation outlook and could limit price increases if it reduces consumer demand. The JOLTS job openings-to-unemployed ratio near 1.0 suggests the labor market is relatively balanced.
“On a year over year basis, they're expected to come in at 2.9%. That would mark the first time below 3% since May 2021, and that'll be good news for the inflation outlook.”at 14:55
On Investing (Charles Schwab): The Fed Holds, but the Pressure Builds ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Layoffs are low, but hiring is extremely weak, so job seekers face a harder market than history.
Triangulating jobless claims, the monthly employment report and JOLTS shows layoffs are low, below pre-pandemic levels. Hiring is the weak part. Basmajian's measure of continued claims per initial claim (a proxy for re-employment) is 8.7 weeks, rising since 2023 and higher than 88% of readings since 1967, including all recessionary periods. Companies are shrinking headcount through attrition, retirements and voluntary quits rather than layoffs, which is not picked up in layoff data. He rejects the idea that gig work is hiding unemployment: surveys show only about 10% of non-filers cite low benefits, and JOLTS layoff data corroborates the low claims. Multiple-job holding is rising a little, but that counts as employment.
“The data is very clear in saying that layoffs are low, but hiring is extremely weak.”at 5:30
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Real wage growth near 1% is well below the 2-2.5% people expect, creating a compounding gap that depresses sentiment.
Wage growth is running about 3-4% while inflation is around 3%, so real wage growth is roughly 1%. That is positive, but over long periods people get used to about 2-2.5% real wage growth. For several years it has averaged about 1%, a gap of about 1.5 percentage points a year. The gap is invisible in any single year, but it compounds into 10-15 points over several years, so people feel their standard of living falling. Weak hiring and low quits keep bargaining power low, which holds wages down. The result is that people are employed but not getting ahead. That makes big-ticket items like housing and cars unaffordable and keeps sentiment surveys depressed.
“We're seeing wage growth in the three to 4% range, but if inflation is in the 3% range, that means real wage growth is coming in at about 1%.”at 26:50
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Weak hiring hits younger workers far harder than experienced workers in a slowdown.
Young workers are the ones who depend only on the hiring market when they leave college, so a weak hiring market falls on them disproportionately. In the most recent slowdown, the unemployment rate for younger workers rose about 300 basis points, from 7% to over 10%. Workers aged 25 and over, who are mostly incumbents, rose by less than one percentage point. Unemployment has come down for both groups this year as the labour market tightened slightly.
“The unemployment rate for younger workers increased 300 basis points when the labor market was slowing down from 7% to over 10%, but it only increased less than one percentage point for people 25.”at 35:30
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Structural government debt will keep real wage growth depressed despite positive cyclical momentum.
Asked for his 2027 real wage growth forecast, Basmajian says the economy has some positive cyclical momentum, but structural factors keep wage growth down. He attributes most of this to the extreme indebtedness of the government sector and its secondary and tertiary effects. He sees no proposals to address these deeper structural issues, so he expects structural real wage pressure to persist even as cyclical momentum improves. He gives no numeric forecast.
“the economy is dealing with, in my view, structural factors that are keeping wage growth down. Most of that is due to the... the extreme indebtedness of the government sector”at 40:46
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Danielle DiMartino Booth · QI Research
Low jobless claims mislead; only one in four unemployed collect benefits, and many are underemployed in gig work.
Warsh highlights how low jobless claims are, but she says only about one in four unemployed Americans are receiving jobless benefits, so the claims data understates slack. Many people are underemployed and stuck in the gig economy because they have to pay the rent. She also says the Fed is ignoring long-term unemployment and labor-market scarring, which typically appears in recessions. She thinks the Fed's labor description is the widest gap between the Fed's view and reality.
“as you've heard me say in the past, only one in four unemployed Americans are collecting jobless benefits.”at 10:16
The Julia La Roche Show: #426 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Could Slam the Economy Into Recession — Fed Day Reaction ·
Daryl Fairweather · Redfin
Fewer Americans moving slows labor market dynamism, since moves often tie to new jobs.
Fewer people are moving because of high rates and a stuck labor market. Relocation is often for a new job, so reduced moving hurts the labor market as well as housing. People stuck in place weaken economic dynamism.
“it's bad for the labor market too because oftentimes when people are moving to a new city, it's to start a new job.”at 27:13
The David Lin Report: Housing Shock: Biggest Seller/Buyer Gap In History | Daryl Fairweather ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
Real wages will catch up within 12 months, so wage inflation is hidden and coming.
Across about 15 past oil shocks, real wages fell at first because wages are sticky, but they usually caught up within six to twelve months when the annual negotiation came around. Average hourly earnings are misleading because of composition: the Atlanta Fed wage tracker, which follows the same cohort of workers, shows median wages rising while the average falls. Workers are struggling financially, the labor market is tight, and the energy shock will pass into services. That implies hidden wage inflation even if the wars are resolved.
“And usually, in environments when we have very loose fiscal policy, very tight labor market, and I would argue somewhat accommodative monetary policy, you see real wage catch up, in the next twelve months.”at 22:10
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
David Busch · Trajan Wealth
The US labor market is starting to crack; payrolls grew only 29,000 and wages lag inflation.
Average hourly earnings are not keeping pace with inflation. Nonfarm payrolls showed only 29,000 new jobs. Busch concludes the labor market is starting to crack, and the Fed must weigh this against inflation under its dual mandate.
“Average hourly earnings are not keeping pace. We saw nonfarm payrolls was at 29,000 new jobs. So the labor markets are starting to crack.”at 22:11
The David Lin Report: ‘Marching Towards Default’: Market’s Weakest Link Revealed | David Busch ·
Steve Van Metre · Steven Van Metre Financial
Energy-shock recessions may avoid mass layoffs, with attrition and buyouts doing the job.
Van Metre notes that prior recessions usually showed warning signs in job openings, wage growth and initial claims, and that these are largely absent now. He suggests this energy-shock downturn could be the first in a long time without mass layoffs. Instead, companies may shed expensive older employees through attrition and buyouts, then hire younger workers at lower pay. This would hide the weakness from unemployment statistics, though spending would still fall as wealth effects reverse.
“This could be the first one we've seen in a long time that we don't see mass layoffs unless something really significant breaks along the way.”at 14:55
Eurodollar University: Airlines Just Sent a TERRIFYING Warning About the Economy ·
Jason Calacanis · LAUNCH
Raising the federal minimum wage $1 a year to $15 would boost spending and help companies.
Calacanis proposes raising the federal minimum by $1 a year for seven years to reach $15 by about 2032, which he says is far milder than California's $20 mandate. He argues the wage money gets recirculated and spent at the same companies, raising velocity and helping businesses. He cites Australia, New Zealand and the Nordics, where companies did better after raises, and says the 25-cent-per-meal cost in fast food has not raised unemployment.
“What happens is all that money gets recirculated, and it just creates more monetary velocity in the country. It all gets spent at the company.”at 1:37:04
All-In Podcast: AI Cyber Panic, Ken Griffin's Bubble Warning, The Fall of France? ·
David Friedberg · The Production Board
Raising the minimum wage prices out low-wage jobs; California's fast-food hike shows the job losses.
Friedberg points to California's 2024 fast-food wage increase, which Jason cited as costing 18,000 jobs in the state. He argues that when wages rise against market demand, consumers who can't pay higher prices buy less, so there is less revenue to pay wages. Consumers lose their local restaurant and workers lose jobs they voluntarily took at lower wages.
“The reason is that the fast food industry sells food to consumers. Consumers want cheap fast food. So when you increase the labor rate against the market's demand... I'm not paying $8 for a burger.”at 1:37:35
All-In Podcast: AI Cyber Panic, Ken Griffin's Bubble Warning, The Fall of France? ·
Jill Schlesinger · CBS News
Demand for hospital nurses is very high because there is a real shortage of frontline staff.
Schlesinger says demand for healthcare workers is off the charts. Frontline nurses are leaving hospitals for concierge services. She describes a real nursing shortage in hospitals that the economy does not have enough people to fill. These are hard but important jobs.
“Demand for healthcare workers is like off the charts... there's actually a real nursing shortage of like in hospital nurses.”at 42:01
The Compound and Friends: An Economy So Good No One Can Live In It with Jill Schlesinger ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Labour market is no-hire, no-fire, so jobless claims understate weakness hitting new workforce entrants.
The US labour market has been in a no-hire, no-fire pattern. Initial jobless claims are not showing problems, but Donovan argues that pattern does not show up in claims data. New entrants to the workforce may struggle to find work or take longer to find a job, yet they do not register as initial jobless claims, so claims understate labour market weakness.
“The pattern of the labour market has been focused on a no hire, no fire approach and that doesn't tend to get reflected in the claims numbers because while new entrants to the workforce may struggle to find work or take longer to find a job, they will not show up as an initial jobless claim.”at 1:37
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Oil and bonds' ·
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak · Boston Consulting Group
Real wage growth has been strong since 2022 and has been strongest at the bottom of the distribution, despite a recent stall.
Wages have risen by more than prices in aggregate. Tight labour markets since the financial crisis, and real wage growth fast since roughly 2017, delivered strong gains particularly at the bottom of the distribution since about 2015. Since inflation came down around 2022, real wage growth has been very strong. The speaker acknowledges real wage gains have stalled over the last eighteen months and that the experience varies across individuals. He argues these gains are why bars and restaurants are full and why consumption is strong.
“Not in the last eighteen months where real wage gains have actually really stalled, it's true. But since 'twenty two or so, since inflation has come down, real wage growth has been really, really strong.”at 24:28
Hidden Forces: Why Younger Generations Are Convinced They Are Falling Behind | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak ·
Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial
The US labour market is weaker than reported, with revisions and depressed hiring and quits undermining the resilience narrative.
Snider argues the mainstream view of a resilient labour market conflicts with the data after revisions. Benchmark revisions covering 2024 and 2025 eliminated large amounts of previously reported payroll employment, so the initial data overstated strength. JOLTS job openings fell 256,000 in August to about 7.1 million, but hiring stayed near a depressed 5.2 million, essentially unchanged from July. The quits rate is low, which he reads as employed workers seeing few attractive alternatives, while the weak hiring rate means the unemployed struggle to find work. He links this to consumer surveys showing jobs anxiety at extreme levels. Because home buying requires confidence years into the future, this weakness in the labour market explains the collapse in housing demand. Consumers respond to signs of cost cuts, slowing orders and delayed hiring before layoffs show up in the unemployment rate.
“The labor market looks stronger in the initial data than it actually was. And that's crucial for housing because home buying requires that confidence extending years into the future.”at 9:39
Eurodollar University: Home Sales Just Fell Below 2008 Levels… And It's Getting Worse ·
Julia Coronado · MacroPolicy Perspectives
US real wages are not growing; labor market is balanced and wage growth is not accelerating.
Coronado says real wages are not growing. The labor market is not tight but fine and very balanced, and none of the wage growth measures show wages firming or accelerating. That combination of flat real wages and sticky inflation is what squeezes consumers.
“Well, real wages are not growing. The labor market is not tight. It is fine. It is very balanced, but we do not see any indications in the wage growth... measures that wages are firming or accelerating.”at 7:35
Bloomberg Surveillance: Sticky Inflation is Testing the Fed; Midterm Election Countdown ·
James Robinson · University of Chicago
De-unionization in the US has helped create alienation and is part of the country's current problems.
Robinson argues that economists often ignore the politics of labor policy. Trade unions can raise employment where employers have monopsony power. In Scandinavia, unions have played important political roles in creating and sustaining inclusive institutions. He says the US elimination of unions, alongside the diffusion of computers, is part of what has created the current alienation, so the mess the country is in is not only about technology.
“It's not just about the diffusion of computers, but also de unionization, the sort of elimination of unions in this country. That's also part of what's created this sort of alienation,”at 36:26
Odd Lots: James Robinson on What It Looks Like When a State is Failing ·
David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research
The no-hire, no-fire labor market means roughly zero employment growth, a key economic overhang.
Employment growth was running at about 2.5% in the late-1990s boom and is now about 0.4%. Rosenberg says that 'no fire' is a good thing, but 'no hire' is the real overhang. Combined, the two mean roughly 0% employment growth, which is not a healthy equilibrium. He criticizes commentators who praise the no-hire, no-fire economy as resilient.
“But when you have no fire, no hire, what do you end up with? You end up with 0% employment growth, which is basically what we have in our hands.”at 7:23
The Julia La Roche Show: #422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50% ·
David Rosenberg · Rosenberg Research
Labor market is weaker than perceived; wage growth is slowing and real incomes are contracting.
Rosenberg argues the labor market is weaker than commonly perceived, and that wage numbers show it. Nominal wage growth is slowing while a price shock is underway, so real work-based income is contracting. He cites a 0.5% month-over-month real income decline in September as evidence the labor market has hit a wall. He argues the lagged effect will be real declines in consumer spending, which he expects to push disinflation or deflation in the non-food and non-fuel CPI and PCE deflator.
“The labor market right now is weaker than commonly perceived, and you can see it in the wage numbers. Nominal wage growth is slowing down at a time when we're seeing this price shock, which means that real work based income is contracting.”at 37:16
The Julia La Roche Show: #422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50% ·
Guy Adami · CNBC
Housing will unlock only after an economic downturn; unemployment could surprise to the upside.
Guy argues the housing market will unlock only when a downturn forces people to make moves they would otherwise avoid. He ties that to the unemployment rate, which he thinks could rise more than people expect. He also says rates are probably headed higher over the longer term, though he gives no detail on that.
“What's gonna unlock the housing market, unfortunately, is a downturn in the economy... predicated on an unemployment rate, which I think could surprise people to the upside.”at 20:29
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Holly Wade · NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business)
Small businesses face tight labor and rising pay pressure; more are raising compensation than planned.
NFIB survey data shows labor availability is still a major constraint, with about a quarter of small businesses citing it as their biggest challenge and historically high open positions. Far fewer firms planned pay increases than ended up having to make them, so firms are reacting to conditions on the ground. Wages are the dominant recruiting tool, with bonuses as a secondary incentive, and the pressure is squeezing margins. Hiring difficulty is most acute in construction, manufacturing and some services, especially specialised trades such as plumbers, electricians and HVAC technicians, where shortages have persisted since about 2015-2016.
“far fewer plan to increase compensation than actually have to do it. So they are having to react on changing conditions on the ground.”at 9:36
The David Lin Report: Your Paycheck In 2027: Will You Get A Raise Or Get Laid Off? | Holly Wade ·
Holly Wade · NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business)
Wage growth will be strongest in services, manufacturing and construction as firms raise pay to keep and hire workers.
Asked which jobs will see the most wage growth next year, Wade points to service sectors still looking to expand, plus manufacturing and construction. Her reasoning is that these firms must raise compensation to retain their current workforce and to recruit for open positions. Small businesses have been adjusting to difficult conditions for five years, so the pressure to pay more is already building.
“I think the most wage growth will likely be in some of those service sectors that are still looking to expand their operations, manufacturing, construction again. You know, they're having to increase compensation to retain their current workforce and to recruit for those open positions.”at 42:38
The David Lin Report: Your Paycheck In 2027: Will You Get A Raise Or Get Laid Off? | Holly Wade ·
Aditya Bhave · Bank of America
Wage inflation is the Fed's comfort today but could become a risk if unemployment falls below 4%.
Bhave says wages are the one thing giving the Fed solace, but the trend in wages has been down for a long time. He says wages could take off if unemployment falls below 4%, hiring picks up and layoffs stay low. He notes he has seen hiring signs around the city that he had not seen since 2022, but the view is still kept in the risk space. If wages did inflect, the Fed might need to go beyond risk-management hikes toward a path back to 5%, but he says they are not there yet.
“wage inflation is probably the one thing that's giving the Fed solace... I think is the unemployment rate falling below 4%”at 23:54
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 19th, 2026 ·
Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial
Job market is not resilient and incomes are not rising, so consumers cannot absorb higher gasoline costs.
Snider links the consumer pullback to the labor market. With incomes flat and the job market weak, households cannot absorb higher gasoline prices and so skip small discretionary purchases. He presents the weak jobs picture as the cause of the spending retrenchment.
“since incomes are not rising, the job market is not resilient and robust,”at 0:14
Eurodollar University: Gas Stations Just Confirmed the Worst-Case Scenario for the Economy ·
Steve Van Metre · Steven Van Metre Financial
Labor market is weak, with hourly earnings decelerating and firms not hiring because demand is missing.
Van Metre says the boss does not want to hire because demand is not there, and the retail sales data had hidden that. He points to decelerating average hourly earnings, which means workers who still have jobs are not getting raises, so their spending cannot keep up.
“And on top of that, you know, those who do have a job, what do we continue to see with them? Decelerating average hourly earnings. They're not getting the pay raises, their spending's not keeping up.”at 18:11
Eurodollar University: Gas Stations Just Confirmed the Worst-Case Scenario for the Economy ·
Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial
Large payroll benchmark revisions show employment was much weaker than reported.
Snider says payroll growth has been revised down repeatedly, starting around late 2023. The large benchmark revisions covering 2024 and 2025 removed enormous amounts of previously reported employment, so the jobs that were reported in those years never existed. He calls payrolls 'an almost irrelevant joke' and treats them as one of several revised series (alongside retail sales and consumer-goods output) that all show the same weakness. Weak sales and production, he argues, mean employers had little reason to add workers.
“The large payroll benchmark revisions covering 2024 and 2025 eliminated enormous amounts of previously reported employment. That never happened.”at 10:26
Eurodollar University: I've Never Seen Anything Like This… Until Now ·
Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial
The labor market isn't resilient: payrolls are about 9.7 million short of pre-pandemic trend, with recent gains mostly part-time.
Snider disputes the official view that the labor market is resilient. Payroll growth is at best deeply inadequate relative to the economy's pre-pandemic trend, and the cumulative payroll deficit has reached about 9.7 million jobs. He says this reflects a failure to recover and create the jobs that a real recovery would have produced, not 9.7 million workers being fired. Recent household employment gains are concentrated in part-time work. Goods employment improved somewhat, but he attributes that to panic buying and pulled-forward purchases caused by the energy shock. Businesses are adding temporary shifts and part-time staff rather than committing to permanent hiring, which he sees as a sign that the income base is weak.
“Payroll growth remains at best deeply inadequate relative to the economy's pre pandemic trend. The cumulative payroll deficit has reached a whopping 9,700,000 jobs,”at 18:30
Eurodollar University: You Won't Believe What Just Happened in the Bond Market ·
Wolf Richter · Wolf Street Corp (WOLF STREET)
The labor market is tight: unemployment and layoffs are low, and wages are rising despite layoff headlines.
Unemployment is very low and layoffs are low despite the headlines. Layoff announcements from companies such as Google and Amazon are not a sign of weakness: he checked their employment and says they are hiring while cutting, which he reads as reshuffling and cost-saving. Companies are still looking for people, wages are rising, and Americans are earning and spending. He argues that layoff announcements are a way for corporate America to hold down wages by discouraging workers from leaving or asking for raises.
“Unemployment is very low, layoffs are low despite all the talk.”at 40:29
Thoughtful Money: When A.I. Spending Starts Slowing, Start Worrying About Recession | Wolf Richter ·
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