Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 16 speakers in other episodes, 4 bullish and 12 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBearish

  CoreWeave's roughly $60 support has held before, but the flat, heavy-volume close suggests more pain ahead.

  Guy notes the stock has repeatedly bounced off the roughly $60 level that has acted as support since December. Yet it traded about 100 million shares and closed essentially unchanged, which he calls poor price action rather than a sign of strength. He says the stock thinks it is out of the woods, but there may be more pain to come, using the Wizard of Oz analogy.

  “They think they're out of the woods, but you know what? There might be more pain to come, I think, Melissa.”at 5:33

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementUncertain

  CoreWeave's selloff reflects perceived credit quality, not weak data center demand; some neoclouds will be fine.

  Tim says the stock is driven by what the market thinks its credit worthiness is, not by fundamentals, even though a Goldman analyst is arguing fundamentals. Microsoft pulled out of the UK project because there is no power, not because data center demand is weak. He calls individual projects very attractive at the margin level. He sees a closed circle of deals with Nvidia behind most of them, and expects some neoclouds to be fine while others struggle.

  “Corweed is a function of its fundamentals. It's a function of what the market perceives its credit worthiness to be. ... it's not that the data center demand is an issue.”at 6:13

• Julie Biel · Kayne Anderson RudnickBearish

  Neocloud economics look fragile: long-dated debt against short contracts and thin margins at lower price assumptions.

  Julie points to a duration mismatch: neoclouds borrow long-term while customer contracts are short, so the contracts are easy to walk away from. Goldman's thesis depends on IRR staying above cost of capital, but its assumptions are sensitive. Dropping the power-price assumption to about 11 million per megawatt breaks the numbers, so the margin is thin. The chain also depends on Anthropic and OpenAI succeeding and being profitable, which she says is not a foregone conclusion.

  “They're borrowing long and their contracts are set. It's not actually that hard to walk away from them. ... if you go down to, like, 11, the numbers don't make sense anymore.”at 8:20

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Amazon is a better owner than Walmart on margins, growth and AWS share gains; the e-commerce business is underappreciated.

  Tim compares Amazon with Walmart after noting that Amazon could look undervalued relative to Walmart. On operating margin and three-year compounded growth, he says there is no question you would want to own Amazon. He points to AWS re-accelerating and taking share from peers in cloud. He also argues the e-commerce business is underappreciated for its ability to turn on profitability when management wants.

  “if you look at operating margin, if you look at the compounded annual growth rate for the next three years, it's not even a question that you wanna own it over Walmart.”at 27:53

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  Amazon's margins are far better than five years ago, so the valuation case is compelling and the uptrend should continue.

  Guy acknowledges valuation is a concern, but says the margins are far better than they were five years ago, so the company is a different business and the case is compelling. He notes the stock has been in an uptrend since the March low of about $190 and bounced off a recent level. He sees a benign tape with Amazon continuing to creep higher.

  “The margins are so much better than they were five years ago, you can actually make a compelling case, and it's a different business now.”at 28:33

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaUncertain

  AI agents threaten Amazon's commerce and ad moats, making the battle to defend them a key 2027 storyline.

  Dan credits AWS for re-accelerating strongly, with 37% year-over-year growth. He then argues agents are a threat to Amazon's sandbox. An agent buying what a shopper wants will not load up other items, and it will not click sponsored links, which hurts the advertising business. He says Amazon has to defend its moats, and that will be a battleground in 2027.

  “Amazon has to defend their turf. They cannot let agents get into their sandbox... agents are coming for them, and that's gonna be a battleground, I think, in 2027 for Amazon.”at 29:13

Bank of America

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Guy Adami · CNBCBearish

  Bank of America's stall since August suggests the banking cycle is later than the market realizes.

  Guy notes Bank of America hit an all-time high around $65 in August. Since then, after Brian Moynihan's unusual comments, the stock has not seen an uptick. Banks are cyclical, and the way the group has traded since mid to late August suggests the cycle may be further along than the market thinks. He still likes Citi and banks in general, provided there is no massive credit cycle.

  “Bank of America made its all time high in August... if you look at the way they've traded since, you know, mid to late August, it's suggesting that maybe we're a lot later cycle than the market realizes.”at 23:50

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBearish

  Bank of America's 2020–21 Treasury-heavy held-to-maturity book is a visible weakness that has hit the stock.

  Dan points to Bank of America's held-to-maturity book. The bank loaded up on Treasuries in 2020 and 2021, and he says the losses from that positioning have played out. He says that one stuck out like a sore thumb, and that the stock has reacted to it over the last few months.

  “we've known this story about their held to maturity book. Right? They were loading up on treasuries. This is back in 2020 and 2021, and you see how things have gone.”at 25:05

Nscale

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Nscale's IPO valuation has been cut roughly in half, showing doubt that its projects will actually get built.

  Tim says Nscale is trying to get an IPO out, but investors have cut its valuation from about $30 billion to $15 to 17 billion. He reads this as doubt about whether these projects will get done, not about the creditworthiness of the counterparties. He also notes that Microsoft and OpenAI account for about 85% of Nscale's revenue, which concentrates the risk.

  “n scale is trying to get an IPO out the door too. And this went from a 30,000,000,000 market cap to investors saying it's worth 15 to 17.”at 11:12

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBullish

  Semiconductors remain a good trade; SMH's support near 540 and the 200-day make the pullback an opportunity.

  Dan says the semiconductor group is interesting, and that the SMH ETF bounced off around 540, which gives it decent long-term support. The 200-day moving average sits just below the price. He is not giving up on what he sees as a sensible trade. He favours the broader chain of Taiwan Semi and plain-vanilla semis over the most worrying names, and he thinks the pullback is still an opportunity.

  “If you look at the SMH... around five forty, which is where it bounced. You have some pretty decent long term support. You have the 200 just below here. I'm not giving up on what I think is a trade here.”at 12:39

Citigroup

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Citigroup's earnings are sound and it is an AI beneficiary, so its roughly 13% lag versus the S&P is unwarranted.

  Tim says Citi's earnings were okay and it is growing its earnings profile while running more efficiently than ever. He points to its underperformance versus the S&P since July, roughly 13%, which he says is out of line with that growth. He calls Citi one of the ultimate beneficiaries of AI and says Wall Street pays less attention to it than to Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

  “this is a bank that is growing their earnings profile is certainly never been run more efficiently, and is as we say often that this is one of these places, the ultimate beneficiaries of AI.”at 23:31

Chevron

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Chevron's chart is breaking out, and integrated oil has not yet priced in the higher oil.

  Seymour points to Chevron's one-year chart as a breakout, and says the integrated names have not yet priced in the oil move. He argues the market is pricing in no exit ramp from the war, with prices staying high. US producers whose infrastructure is not targeted are best placed to benefit, which he contrasts with oil services names trading below their pre-war levels.

  “Look at that chart on Chevron. Just look at a one year. Forget a three year chart. I mean, that's a chart that's breaking out.”at 37:38

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Petrobras is run as well as ever and pays almost a 10% dividend, so Brazil can be owned.

  Seymour says he is long Petrobras and that management is as good as it has ever been. The stock pays almost a 10% dividend. He presents it as one of the Brazil exposures that justify owning Brazil at a sensible size within an emerging-markets barbell.

  “I'm long Petrobras, which I think is being run as well as they've ever been run and pays almost a 10% dividend.”at 41:21

Itaú Unibanco Holding

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Tim likes Banco Itaú and is long it as part of his Brazil exposure.

  Seymour says he likes Banco Itaú and is long the stock. It is one of the Brazil positions he sees as part of an emerging-markets barbell that includes value and dip-buying in Latin America. He gives no detailed numerical case for the bank.

  “I do like Banco Itau. I'm long that [Itaú].”at 41:21

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF

• Guy Adami · CNBCBullish

  The Brazil ETF's downtrend has broken to six-year highs, and it still goes higher.

  Adami says the downtrend that has run since 2008 has been broken, and the ETF is making six-year highs. Financials, resources and energy, the sectors he wants exposure to, are all in the fund and all working. He says he is cautious about chasing it here, but still thinks it goes higher from here.

  “A downtrend since [2008] has been broken. We're making six year highs here... I still think it goes higher from here.”at 41:50

Anthropic

Across the shows: 23 speakers in other episodes, 15 bullish and 35 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Julie Biel · Kayne Anderson RudnickUncertain

  Anthropic's charity fund raises questions about governance and dilution ahead of its IPO.

  Beal objects to large companies choosing to give money away instead of paying taxes that would fund things like unemployment benefits, which she calls techno-feudalism. She also questions the trust that oversees the board and the open issues around the fund's governance, which together add hair to the IPO. She says these issues should give investors pause before they get enthusiastic.

  “I'm not really loving this movement towards techno feudalism, where, you know, these large corporations rather than just paying taxes to make sure that their unemployment benefits that they caused would just prefer to dole it out whenever they want to.”at 45:18

US consumer

• Julie Biel · Kayne Anderson Rudnick

  Consumer demand is propped up by stock wealth, which now exceeds housing wealth, a concentrated risk.

  Julie says more Americans now have wealth tied up in the stock market than in their housing, which has not happened for a long time. She cannot understand how consumer demand has stayed so strong, and argues the stock market, which is highly concentrated around AI, is a big part of the answer. That makes consumer spending exposed to the AI trade.

  “we have more consumers, the wealth tied up in the stock market than in their housing, and that hasn't happened for a very long time.”at 11:52

• Peter Boockvar · Bleakley Financial Group

  Consumer spending depends on stock and home wealth; a stock market rollover would end the spending boost.

  Boockvar argues the wealth effect from stocks and homes is rippling through spending. If the stock market rolls over, coastal bidding wars end. Many people have no mortgage on their homes, and he compares this with China, where people cut spending when house values fall, skipping projects such as a new bathroom. Upper-income spending, AI spending and government spending are the main drivers of growth.

  “So those bidding wars on the coasts, if the stock market rolls over, well, that's gonna end. Because the wealth effect obviously is rippling through so much.”at 15:58

US Treasuries & yields

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Slowing cyclical growth from weaker housing could push long-end rates lower, not on credit concerns.

  Tim argues that the housing-linked share of GDP, about 18%, is heading lower. He says the cyclical growth impact of that could push rates down, based on economic dynamics rather than US creditworthiness. He asks Boockvar where rates are headed, given that view.

  “some of the things you've just said indicate to me that rates could actually go lower based upon the dynamics that are not technical and the credit worthiness of the US government.”at 18:22

• Peter Boockvar · Bleakley Financial Group

  Short-term rates have topped, but the 10-year could reach 5.5% to 6% over coming years, perhaps via 4.75% first.

  Boockvar sees a rising-rate environment. He says the 2020 30-year bond holders are already down about 53%, so the bond market has already been hurt. He thinks short-term rates have topped out. But he would not be surprised if the 10-year reached 5.5% to 6% in the coming years, though growth worries could first push it down to about 4.75%.

  “in the short term rates have topped out, but I would not be surprised if five and a half to 6% tenure in the coming years is what we're gonna see.”at 19:14

Middle East & Iran

• Helima Croft · RBC Capital Markets

  Escalation risk in the Gulf is high after the midterms, with Saudi Arabia now a second front.

  Croft sees a significant risk of escalation after the midterms, as the finish-the-job camp gains influence and pressure builds on Trump to get tougher on Iran. Iran keeps targeting tankers in Hormuz and ships are being sunk. The Houthis have hit Riyadh airport, which has been closed for over a week, killing 12 and wounding 300. They have also hit Saudi Aramco headquarters. She says there are no signs of an off-ramp, and Saudi Arabia is now the more worrying front.

  “I think there's a significant risk that we have an escalation post midterm, that you have the sort of finish the job camp be ascendant.”at 33:51

• Helima Croft · RBC Capital Markets

  The Strait of Hormuz is not open for business, and ships are still being targeted.

  Croft says US naval assets are being used to blockade Iran and that ships moving through the Strait are still being targeted. Passage relies on a patchwork arrangement, so the route is not open or easy even when more crude moves through it. Gulf officials have said this arrangement is not sustainable, and the attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure add to the strain.

  “So it is not open for business. Even if more crude was going through there, it wasn't a situation where it was open or easy. And people from The Gulf kept saying, this is not sustainable.”at 35:21

Oil & fuels

• Helima Croft · RBC Capital Markets

  Hormuz flows have risen since August, but at great military cost, so the strait is still not open for business.

  Croft acknowledges that transits through Hormuz rose from August onward. She says that came at a high cost. By some accounts about 30% of US naval assets are being used on the blockade of Iran, and ships are still being targeted. The arrangement is patchwork, so the strait is not open for business even if more crude is moving. Gulf states say this is not sustainable.

  “we did see an increase from August onward in transits through Hormuz. But I always say at what cost? ... By some accounts, 30% of US naval assets are being used just on the blockade of Iran. ... So it is not open for business.”at 35:03

• Helima Croft · RBC Capital Markets

  Crude's price doesn't reflect a post-midterm escalation risk in the Middle East war.

  Croft argues the current oil price does not include the risk of an escalation after the midterms. Ports such as Yanbu have been targeted and the East-West pipeline has been hit, and ships still face attacks despite a patchwork naval escort arrangement. The war is now in its eighth month with no off-ramp, so a true escalation could push crude above the Russia-Ukraine highs. She also notes that some in the market still expect a deal after the midterms, which she doubts.

  “if we see an escalation scenario post midterm, that is not reflected in the current price. ... a true escalation scenario post midterm, then I think you're seeing taking out through the Russia Ukraine highs.”at 36:20

US housing

• Peter Boockvar · Bleakley Financial Group

  US housing is frozen: sales are stuck near 1990s levels and prices are up about 50%, so supply and income growth must catch up.

  Boockvar says housing-linked activity, including builders, contractors, brokers and title companies, is about 15 to 18% of US GDP and still contracting. Existing home sales were about 4 million annualized in the mid-1990s, and they are still about 4 million despite a population that is about 80 million larger. Home prices are up about 50% over six years. He says the market is frozen and that only more supply and income growth well above home price appreciation will cure it.

  “Thirty years ago, mid nineties, we had existing home sales at about 4,000,000 annualized. Here we are at 80,000,000 people bigger as a population, we're doing 4,000,000.”at 14:49

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Peter Boockvar · Bleakley Financial Group

  AI capex still rises next year, but a slower rate of change could hurt stock prices if projects get delayed.

  Boockvar says he is worried about the AI tech trade, not because of the absolute level of spend. Next year capex will be greater than this year. But if projects do not get greenlit, a slowdown from about $1.2 trillion to about $1 trillion would still be an increase, and the rate of change would be what hurts stock prices.

  “I am getting worried about this AI tech trade. Not in terms of the absolute level of spend. ... it's the rate of change that becomes really problematic for stock prices.”at 19:44

US jobs & labor market

• Guy Adami · CNBC

  Housing will unlock only after an economic downturn; unemployment could surprise to the upside.

  Guy argues the housing market will unlock only when a downturn forces people to make moves they would otherwise avoid. He ties that to the unemployment rate, which he thinks could rise more than people expect. He also says rates are probably headed higher over the longer term, though he gives no detail on that.

  “What's gonna unlock the housing market, unfortunately, is a downturn in the economy... predicated on an unemployment rate, which I think could surprise people to the upside.”at 20:29

Banks

• Julie Biel · Kayne Anderson Rudnick

  Bank stocks' weakness reflects cyclical risk; with M&A and trading slowing, banking looks unattractive.

  Julie says the price action reflects cyclicality and risk, which differs from the opaque-structure risk of the last cycle. Banks have been leaning heavily on M&A, trading and debt raising. If those slow, the rest of the banking business looks weak. She also thinks banks had become expensive, so even at current levels they are not compelling for a cyclical business.

  “I think it's a reflection of the cyclicality and the risk... if that starts to go away, makes the rest of the banking business look not so great. I also think they had just gotten a little bit expensive.”at 24:30

Russia & Ukraine

• Helima Croft · RBC Capital Markets

  The Ukraine war has no off-ramp, and Zelenskyy is unlikely to stop hitting Russian energy.

  Croft argues that markets still hold a view that a deal will come after the midterms, but the war is in its eighth month. Early on, the market was told the war would end within days, and the trend has since worsened. Zelenskyy sees strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as a vital way to defund the Russian war effort and is not inclined to accept the terms on the table, so she sees no visible exit.

  “Remember, like, eight days into the war, we were being told this was gonna end, and the trend line is getting worse right now. So I just... I look at this and I say, where's our off ramp?”at 36:33

US inflation

• Julie Biel · Kayne Anderson Rudnick

  Diesel prices are the biggest threat to sticky US inflation through supply chains.

  Beal says diesel is the area of greatest concern for inflation because it flows through supply chains broadly. That makes it harder to unwind than pain at the pump. She ties this to recent PPI readings showing transport costs rising, and to Fed members talking about a longer campaign against inflation.

  “I think that diesel is the place that there... I have the most concern because I think that that ripples through in terms of all of our supply chains pretty dramatically, and it's hard to undo that as quickly as if it was just the pain at the pump”at 38:45

Emerging markets

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset Management

  Brazil's election is not fully priced; the bigger move will come from austerity.

  Seymour says a Bolsonaro win is not fully priced into the market, so caution is warranted. The currency rallied immediately, and he thinks the currency is the signal to follow for how Brazilian elections are priced. He argues the real change is a shift toward austerity, not only a rightward political move, and that this is what will drive a big move in Brazil.

  “this is about not just a move to the right in concept, but it really is about more austerity, and I think that's where you're gonna get a big move from Brazil.”at 41:05