What podcasters are saying about VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

Summary

In the past 30 days, 4 speakers on 4 finance podcasts discussed VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) in 5 views. Going by each speaker's latest call, 2 are bearish and 1 is bullish. Chorus has followed VanEck Semiconductor ETF since October 8, 2026.

Who talks about it most

• Jim Welsh · 2
• Patrick Ceresna · 1
• Dan Nathan · 1
• Jim Iuorio · 1

The latest views

Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.

• Patrick Ceresna · Big Picture TradingBearish

  The semiconductor ETF has fallen 16% from its peak as many AI stocks break down.

  SMH tried an early breakout a few weeks ago but has fallen 16% from its peak over the last two weeks. The memory-stock ETF is at six-month lows. Ceresna says many AI stocks have broken badly, even though the hyperscalers are doing well. He treats the semiconductor weakness as the underlying AI pressure, and expects it to persist until the AI stocks find a durable bottom.

  “the semiconductor index using the SMH attempted an early breakout a few weeks ago, but over the last two weeks has been off of its peak down 16%.”at 1:22:40

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• Dan Nathan · RiskReversal MediaBullish

  Semiconductors remain a good trade; SMH's support near 540 and the 200-day make the pullback an opportunity.

  Dan says the semiconductor group is interesting, and that the SMH ETF bounced off around 540, which gives it decent long-term support. The 200-day moving average sits just below the price. He is not giving up on what he sees as a sensible trade. He favours the broader chain of Taiwan Semi and plain-vanilla semis over the most worrying names, and he thinks the pullback is still an opportunity.

  “If you look at the SMH... around five forty, which is where it bounced. You have some pretty decent long term support. You have the 200 just below here. I'm not giving up on what I think is a trade here.”at 12:39

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• Jim Welsh · Macro Tides LLCBearish

  SMH completed an ABC rally and should fall below 503, possibly toward 460.

  SMH bottomed near 503, rallied to about 607, pulled back to about 540 and topped at 639. Welsh reads that as a completed ABC corrective rally, so SMH is heading lower. The RSI near 30 made a bounce due, and today's bounce is that bounce, but he still expects SMH to break below 503, possibly to about 460. He calls semis an over-owned sector that is unwinding even though earnings have been excellent, and money has rotated into it because its earnings look safe.

  “So when we got there, my take was we've just completed an ABC rally off of five zero three. We're going lower. I still believe we'll see SMH below the five zero three level.”at 7:13

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• Jim Welsh · Macro Tides LLCBearish

  Semiconductors are highly cyclical, and the AI-driven chip ETF faces downside risk before a rally.

  Welsh calls semiconductors one of the most cyclical sectors, noting that the SMH semiconductor ETF dropped more than 65% in the 2001-02 downturn and during the financial crisis. He says the market is now built on AI and semiconductors, so the sector is vulnerable to a sharp unwind. He also says that if SMH falls below 503 it would set up a great rally, so he sees downside first, with a buying opportunity at that level.

  “The thing I point out in semiconductors, it's one of the most cyclical sectors there are. In two thousand one and two and in the financial crisis, SMH dropped by more than 65%.”at 43:26

  The David Lin Report: Bond Market About To Flip: A Major Shakeup Is Coming | Jim Welsh · October 19, 2026

• Jim Iuorio · TJM Institutional ServicesUncertain

  Sold SMH outright and now uses options to cap downside on chip ETF exposure.

  He sold all his SMH shares and rebuilt the position with near-the-money five-week calls, extra longer-dated calls, and a call spread about 5% above the market. This defines his maximum loss on the longs and costs him premium. He has already made money in Micron, AMD and SMH. He calls a 300% Micron rally in eight weeks abnormal, which is why he is protecting gains and will adjust his deltas if the market keeps moving.

  “I'm 100% defining the most I can lose on my longs in SMH, and I'm paying money to do that”at 10:14

  Thoughtful Money: Markets Face A Double-Threat Today | Jim Iuorio · October 8, 2026