Speaker · Updated
Patrick Ceresna: latest market views
Big Picture Trading
Summary
Patrick Ceresna is the founder and Chief Derivative Market Strategist at Big Picture Trading and the co-host of both the MacroVoices and the Market Huddle podcasts.
Chorus has 41 views from Patrick Ceresna across 5 episodes on MacroVoices since October 1, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Centrus Energy; bearish on Alphabet, Capital One Financial, Deutsche Bank and VanEck Semiconductor ETF.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AlphabetBearish ·
- Capital One FinancialBearish ·
- Deutsche BankBearish ·
- JPMorgan Chase & Co.Bullish ·
- VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish ·
- Centrus EnergyBullish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Capital One FinancialBearish
Capital One is a short on consumer-credit deterioration from AI-driven job losses, with technical weakness confirming it.
Ceresna argues that if AI displaces workers and cuts their earning power, consumers will struggle to service debt, so productivity gains for businesses could bring deteriorating credit quality at consumer lenders. Capital One, with heavy exposure to credit cards and auto loans, is a candidate to express that view. The technical picture reinforces it: the stock peaked in January, has spent most of the year under pressure, and is pivoting at its 50-day moving average. A failure there would confirm the bear structure. He recommends a January 2027 $200/$175 bear put spread at about $5.96 net debit, with roughly 3:1 reward to risk, and notes implied volatility is near the bottom of its one-year range, which makes owning the $200 put outright reasonable too.
“We're expressing a specific vulnerability in consumer credit through a stock already showing technical weakness with a defined capital commitment and more than $3 of profit potential for every $1 risked.”at 42:37
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
AlphabetBearish
Alphabet's post-earnings gap down confirms a downtrend; it will struggle to recover soon as AI spending outruns cash flow.
Alphabet fell sharply after earnings while Microsoft rose. Ceresna points to free cash flow as the split: Microsoft's quarterly FCF is about $18bn, while Alphabet's is about minus $9bn. He sees a growing distinction between companies funding the AI build-out and companies delivering returns on it, and the market is now scrutinising AI spending cash flow. The gap down has solidified a clear downtrend, so he thinks Alphabet will find it hard to recover immediately. He treats it as a weak link in the Mag Seven group that is holding up the index.
“At the same time, Google with this gap down has really solidified a very clear downtrend, and it will be pretty hard for it to recover immediately.”at 43:47
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
The Nasdaq is in a bear flag and Mag Seven strength is not yet turning the index bullish; key S&P levels matter.
The Nasdaq has dropped below its 50-day moving average in what Ceresna calls a bear flag, and there is no sign yet that any Mag Seven stock can turn the Nasdaq trend bullish. The S&P 500 is holding above critical levels around 7,600 to 7,700, where systematic sell zones could trigger CTAs and vol-targeting funds to unwind bullish positioning. The Mag Seven are about 35% of the S&P 500 and have been the core support for the bull trend. The Mag Seven basket is now trading at its 50-day moving average, so whether it holds is a key test for the index. Breadth has improved, but he calls this still a Mag Seven story.
“Now, the S and P 500 continues to trade above the critical levels around 76 to 7,700, where there's a number of systematic sell zones where we would see CTAs and vol targeting funds”at 44:15
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
The Fed's hawkish hold matched expectations; it did not shift short or long yields or the dollar trend.
Ceresna says the market expected a hawkish hold and got one. Powell's tone was softer, but markets showed no big surprise or repricing across assets. The Fed acknowledged some tightening in financial conditions but stopped short of calling them tight, and did not say bond markets had already tightened enough. SOFR and short-term Treasury yields barely moved, and the 10- and 30-year yields stayed in their recent range. The dollar trend would have reversed on a dovish pivot, and that did not happen, so the Fed gave the market what it had priced in.
“Well, the market was expecting a hawkish hold, and they got it. It was a bit of a softer press conference in terms of the tone, but overall, when you look at the actual reactions of the market to the FOMC, then pretty much the market got what they were expecting”at 45:24
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
The dollar bull trend holds; a break of the euro's 1.11 level could drive further dollar strength.
The dollar's bull trend is intact because the Fed did not pivot dovishly. Sterling, the Canadian dollar and the Aussie have bounced and retraced much of their weakness, but the euro is still near its 52-week lows. If the 1.11 level gives way, the euro may start another leg down. Because the euro is a very large weight in the dollar index, that alone could push the dollar higher even without funding stress lifting it directly. The euro is the pair to watch.
“if this one eleven level gives out, the euro may be starting another leg down. And because the euro is such a huge weighting in the dollar index, that alone may drive dollar strength”at 47:03
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Oil is in a decisive uptrend; peace headlines fade, and a post-midterm re-escalation could push WTI back to about $120.
Each peace headline has produced only a modest price response, and oil has regained its previous highs within a reasonable period every time. Ceresna reads that as an environment where oil keeps trending higher and is probably anticipating a re-escalation in the post-midterm period. Crude is in a decisive bull trend, and only a geopolitical disruption would break it. Technically, the upside target is the previous WTI high of about $120, and Brent could clear its prior highs if that move happens.
“regains itself back to its previous highs in any reasonable period afterwards. So we continue to have an environment where oil is trending higher and very likely anticipating a re escalation of the situation in the post midterm period.”at 47:48
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Gold is in short-term distribution near $4,000 and could fall 5-10% if support breaks, though long-term he is very bullish.
Gold needed a dovish Fed pivot and a change in the macro backdrop to break higher, and neither happened. It is trading along its $4,000 support, where the summer lows were, and there is no sign of accumulation. Ceresna calls the chart distributive with no visible buyers. The prevailing downtrend is the path of least resistance. A breakdown below that support would leave room for a further 5-10% drawdown. He stays very bullish on gold long term but expects a distribution cycle in the short term, driven by macro catalysts, until an inflection point appears.
“a key technical breakdown like this would leave room for even a five to 10% further drawdown.”at 49:01
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Copper is neutral: the crowded bullish trade has failed to make higher highs, and a break below $6.50 could squeeze longs.
Copper was the most bullish commodity in positioning and commitment-of-traders data a month or more ago, and everyone was bullish on a fundamental reason. Over the last three months, though, copper has failed to make a higher high and reward that positioning. It has deteriorated and is now bouncing back to about $6.70, near its 50-day moving average, which is a key test. A breakdown below $6.50 could squeeze the crowded trade. Ceresna stays relatively neutral until price action shows meaningful accumulation.
“any breakdown below $6.50 could squeeze out the very crowded trade. At this moment, I would remain relatively neutral copper until we see some sort of technical price action showing some meaningful accumulation.”at 50:23
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Uranium equities are oversold despite spot uranium holding above $90, possibly a buying opportunity.
Uranium's U3O8 spot price is about $91.30 per pound and holding above $90, but uranium equities remain in a decisive downtrend and have been hit hard. Ceresna attributes that to the broader AI selling, which has dragged them down with it. He sees a disconnect between the physical commodity and its equities. He wants to see when the equities can put in short-term lows, and whether that becomes a critical buying opportunity.
“Clearly, those uranium equities have been dragged down with a lot of the AI selling that has been going on. It will be interesting to see when these uranium equities finally can start banging out short term lows”at 51:01
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Agriculture & food commodities
The higher USDA corn crop forecast undermines the scarcity story, and speculators are being shaken out of the trade.
The USDA raised its corn production forecast to 234 million bushels on higher yields. That is less supportive of the bullish scarcity story. This comes weeks after large speculators had some of their most bullish corn positioning. Roughly 166,000 net contracts were sold over the last two weeks, a mix of long liquidation and fresh shorting. Ceresna sees traders being shaken out of a trade that has turned from very bullish to aggressively washed out, and he will keep watching it.
“It's a higher yield, less supportive of the bullish scarcity story. This is happening after just a few weeks ago. We saw some of the highest positioning scores for large speculators in terms of being bullishly positioned on corn.”at 53:22
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Deutsche BankBearish
Deutsche Bank faces a more challenging European environment, so it is the short leg of the pair.
European financials have more than doubled the US sector's gain since the Liberation Day lows, and Gave argues French fiscal stress and expensive energy could undermine that recovery through funding costs and credit quality. Deutsche Bank's US shares, at about $32.39, carry more direct exposure to that European environment than JPMorgan does. Ceresna therefore shorts Deutsche Bank against a long in JPMorgan. He caveats that the short leg has asymmetric risk, since its profit is capped while losses from a sustained rally are open-ended. He suggests a call at a $36 strike expiring April 2027 to limit that loss.
“So in this trade, we're expressing a preference for JPMorgan's earnings resilience against Deutsche Bank's exposure to more challenging European environment.”at 1:17:29
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
JPMorgan Chase & Co.Bullish
JPMorgan's earnings resilience should let it outperform European banks in a long-short pair trade.
European financials have run far ahead of US ones since the Liberation Day lows. The EUFN European financials ETF is up about 57% versus about 27% for the US financial sector through XLF, more than twice the gain. Ceresna links this to Gave's argument that France's fiscal and political problems, expensive energy and limited policy room could spread through Europe's financial system, hitting funding costs, credit quality and the sustainability of recent earnings growth. He recommends a dollar-neutral pair, long JPMorgan and short Deutsche Bank at about 10.3 Deutsche shares per JPMorgan share. The trade rests on JPMorgan's earnings resilience against Deutsche's exposure to a harder European environment. He notes the pair still carries company and market risk, and suggests an optional call overlay to cap the short leg's losses.
“So in this trade, we're expressing a preference for JPMorgan's earnings resilience against Deutsche Bank's exposure to more challenging European environment.”at 1:17:29
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
VanEck Semiconductor ETFBearish
The semiconductor ETF has fallen 16% from its peak as many AI stocks break down.
SMH tried an early breakout a few weeks ago but has fallen 16% from its peak over the last two weeks. The memory-stock ETF is at six-month lows. Ceresna says many AI stocks have broken badly, even though the hyperscalers are doing well. He treats the semiconductor weakness as the underlying AI pressure, and expects it to persist until the AI stocks find a durable bottom.
“the semiconductor index using the SMH attempted an early breakout a few weeks ago, but over the last two weeks has been off of its peak down 16%.”at 1:22:40
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Thin breadth and crowded Nasdaq longs make a first S&P 500 correction since Q1 possible if megacaps weaken.
The S&P 500 is near 7,700, testing its 50-day moving average and its monthly lows. Breadth has fallen to about 20%, with four out of five stocks in downtrends and most AI stocks under pressure. The Magnificent Seven, roughly 35% of the index, has kept the index up despite this dispersion. Ceresna is watching expectations for the next Mag 7 reports, and a CTA selling trigger at about 7,600, roughly 1% below the market. Large speculators hit 100th-percentile net long positioning on the Nasdaq during its recent 52-week high, and that trade has since lost money. Money is also rotating into staples and healthcare. He says a unwind of these positions could bring the first correction since Q1.
“And this is why we're watching very closely as we're at the 7,700 level on the S and P because if all of this starts to unwind, we may finally see the first market correction since the one we saw back in the first quarter.”at 1:23:29
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Bonds have likely set a short-term low after an oversold selloff, with yields pulling back.
Bonds were incredibly oversold and have been bouncing from a short-term low. The 30-year yield, which was near 5.75% at its peak, has come down about 35 basis points over the last several weeks. That has produced a relief rally in yield-sensitive bond proxies such as utilities, staples and healthcare, with breadth improving. Ceresna's view is that the rebound is real on the short-term horizon, even though structural stress in junk bonds and private credit persists.
“the bonds have established some sort of a short term low. They were incredibly oversold and they've been bouncing.”at 1:23:47
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Junk bonds are structurally weak as high-yield spreads break out higher.
Junk bonds first sold off in line with the rise in rates across the board. Over the last few weeks, credit spreads have risen and broken out, so junk bonds now demand an extra risk premium over Treasuries. Ceresna says CoreWeave has added to this pressure. He concludes that junk bonds remain structurally weak. He is watching whether this turns into more meaningful stress in high-yield markets.
“over the last few weeks we have seen a substantial rise and breakout in credit spreads, meaning that now junk bonds are starting to ask for and command an additional risk premium... so we're seeing at this moment that junk bonds remain structurally weak.”at 1:24:45
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Private credit is deteriorating, with the BDC ETF BIZD breaking to fresh lows.
Private equity credit was a major worry in Q1 and into Q2, but the market has since stopped discussing it. Over the last two weeks the BDC-linked ETF BIZD has broken to fresh new lows. Ceresna reads this as continued deterioration in the private credit segment. The first shock hit high-quality Treasuries, and the stress has now moved into riskier parts of the bond market, where the consequences of an accident are larger.
“when looking at an ETF like the BIZD, we have now just seen it break to fresh new lows. So we continue to see actually a deterioration in this part of the credit markets.”at 1:25:29
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Dollar strength can keep going because euro weakness leaves room for USD gains, perhaps toward 103.
Traders were positioned aggressively short the euro, pound and Canadian dollar against the dollar, at zero percentile of their look-back. The dollar's short-term high in October allowed the pound and Canadian dollar to retrace about 50% of their selloffs. The euro has barely bounced, though, and it is the largest component of the dollar index basket. If the euro has broken down and cannot rally even when the other pairs bounce, Ceresna sees more downside for it and an open window for the dollar to climb further. He suggests the index could reach 103, though he hedges it with 'maybe'.
“And if it is, the window remains open for the US dollar to continue higher. Maybe we're gonna see one zero three on the upside as we go.”at 1:27:29
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Oil remains in a bull trend with depleted inventories and unloved positioning; a breakout would lift inflation expectations.
WTI's front month has consolidated, but contracts further out the curve, to April 2027, have risen without a correction. Backwardation is flattening, and inventories remain depleted, so the market stays tight. A de-escalation scare was quickly squashed and barely moved oil. Positioning is unloved: the commitment-of-traders data shows the 23rd percentile over three years, and gross longs have not built up. Gross shorts remain at multi-year lows. Ceresna argues a meaningful oil breakout would hit inflation expectations, could unsettle bonds, and could trigger risk-off moves.
“Overall, oil remains the macro catalyst because if any meaningful breakout was to happen on oil, it's going to have huge impact on inflation expectations,”at 1:30:33
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Gold and silver are in a distribution cycle, with gold near 4,000 and silver at 2026 lows.
Gold is trading around its summer lows, a stone's throw from 4,000, and silver is at its 2026 lows and trying to break lower. Ceresna says the current macro backdrop, with tight liquidity and dollar and interest-rate headwinds, does not favour gold and silver, so they remain in a distribution cycle. The selling pressure continues, and prices are highly vulnerable to a further breakdown. If 4,000 breaks, the next support is at 3,600 to 3,800, which he sees as a tactical buy zone. He expects a durable bull market to need a different macro regime.
“in a period where liquidity is tight, when there's dollar and interest rate headwinds, gold and silver remain in a distribution cycle.”at 1:31:27
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Uranium stocks hit 52-week lows on AI-basket selling, even though physical uranium is stable.
Physical uranium prices remain very stable, with no real distribution and only minor spot selling at a discount to NAV. Uranium equities, however, have been grouped with many AI trades. As the broader AI baskets sell off, the pressure is spilling into uranium stocks, which are breaking to 52-week lows on short-term liquidity. Ceresna says the long-term nuclear story is still strong. In the short term, though, he expects further distribution until the AI stocks find a durable bottom, and he does not yet see where the next buying opportunity is.
“uranium stocks have been basketed with many AI trades. And so as the broader AI baskets are selling, we are seeing that pressure likely leading to some distribution in these uranium stocks as well.”at 1:33:02
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Crowded copper longs are breaking down; losing the $6.40 support could trigger a washout.
The structural copper bull case rests on electrification, grids, data centres and long-term supply constraints. Positioning reached the 100th percentile for six months, and a month ago net positioning hit a 10-year high. Since then positioning has been fading, and copper has failed to break out over the last three or four months. It is now at a one-month low, near key support since July. A decisive break of that line would reverse the trend, and the crowded positioning could force a sharp liquidity washout. Ceresna explicitly does not guarantee that outcome.
“And now we find ourselves in a situation where copper is breaking down. We're now at a one month low and approaching a key support line that's been the low since July.”at 1:36:41
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France ·
Centrus EnergyBullish
Centrus is a long-term nuclear fuel supply play; selling a discounted put offers a 14.6% premium.
Ceresna argues nuclear buildout depends on fuel supply, and Centrus supplies enriched uranium and is expanding domestic enrichment for existing and advanced reactors. He sees a long-term investment case in secure fuel supply. The stock is under heavy selling pressure, and implied volatility is elevated, so he proposes selling a January put with a $70 strike, about 43% below the current price of around $122, with roughly 464 days to expiry. The midpoint premium is about $10.25 per share, or $1,025 per contract. If assigned, the adjusted cost base would be about $60, roughly 50% below the reference price. If the put expires, the premium is a 14.6% return on the obligation. He says the maximum profit is the premium and that losses remain possible, so position size should reflect the ability to fund the full share purchase.
“The company supplies enriched uranium and is expanding domestic enrichment capacity for both existing reactors and advanced designs. That creates a long term investment thesis around nuclear growth”at 58:24
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave's bond stress shows AI growth is financed by credit that may dry up, risking a slowdown.
Ceresna cites CoreWeave shares falling close to 16% in one session while its outstanding bond yields rose to about 15%, pushing the bonds to junk status. He argues this is less about CoreWeave's size and more about AI absorbing large amounts of credit to fund growth. He says growth will potentially stall once access to that credit slows. He frames the event as possibly the first sign that the financing cycle is becoming stressed. He is not calling a definitive top, but says it shows the market is starting to test when credit for AI stories dries up.
“AI has been sucking up so much credit in order to create growth. And inevitably, the growth will start to potentially stall when their access to credit also slows.”at 1:01:51
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants ·
Money is rotating from Nasdaq AI names into defensives, but one day is not yet a confirmed trend.
Ceresna notes that money had been flowing heavily into the Nasdaq, with commitment-of-traders positioning in the Nasdaq at the 100th percentile while Russell small caps sat near the zero percentile. The day after the hot CPI print, defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples and healthcare advanced along with bonds, while many AI-driven names pulled back. He says one day does not make a new trend, but the rotation could signal a bigger sector rotation. He is watching whether beaten-down sectors rebound and whether CTA and systematic sell triggers on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 force deleveraging.
“Yesterday, all the defensives were ripping higher, including bonds. We had basically utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, all advancing, while we basically saw very strong pullbacks in almost all of the AI driven names.”at 1:03:42
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants ·
Treasuries are acting as a defensive asset as rate-hike pricing fades and risk-off pressure builds.
Ceresna sees the bond market move after a hot CPI print: yields rose early, then the 10-year and 30-year reversed about 25 basis points from peak to trough. He says the reversal is an intermarket signal at an inflection point. The December 2027 SOFR contract appears to have double-bottomed and turned as the market began taking rate hikes off the table over the next year. Combined with widening junk-bond spreads, this points to a risk-off scare in which Treasuries may be the defensive asset. He is watching whether these signals follow through.
“There's further evidence that there's some sort of a risk off scare occurring and potentially treasury bonds may be a defensive asset in this period.”at 1:06:15
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants ·
The dollar remains in a primary bull trend, with a pullback toward 101 possible but dips still bought.
Ceresna says the US dollar index hit a higher high near 103 on the hot CPI print, then pulled back the next morning. He describes the dollar as still in a primary bull trend. He notes the index could easily absorb a pullback toward 101. He says it is too early to conclude that intermarket signals will pressure dollar flows. As long as dips continue to be bought, he would still consider the trend a clean bull market.
“The dollar index could easily absorb a pullback down towards one zero one. But so long as dips are being bought, I would still consider technically in a clean bull trend.”at 1:07:06
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants ·
Crude fundamentals are strong and shorts are crowded, so WTI's front month looks held down and vulnerable.
Ceresna argues crude is structurally strong in Brent and other markets, while the WTI front-month contract has stayed in consolidation. The oil curve shows backwardation flattening: the front month is about 6% below its September 15 highs, while the April contract is up about 10%. Commitment-of-traders data shows gross short positioning in crude futures at multiyear extremes, which he thinks may be holding the front month down. He adds that the Strait of Hormuz situation looks as tense as it has been in a long time, and inventories are depleted. He questions how long the front month can stay contained.
“we see structurally strong crude oil markets in Brent and in so many other parts of the oil markets, but the WTI contract remains somewhat in consolidation.”at 1:07:25
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants ·
Gold could turn bullish if yields fall and the Fed is priced to ease in 2027, but no confirmation yet.
Ceresna says gold has consolidated back to its previous lows near the $4,000 level. If bond yields fall and growth expectations are curtailed, markets may start pricing a Fed that has to be much easier in 2027, which would make conditions bullish for gold. Gold is rising in premarket trading, but he has not yet seen a trendline break or a close above key moving averages. He says there is a case for a bottom, but the price has not reflected it yet, so he will watch whether support holds.
“Now if this starts to materialize, the conditions may actually become bullish for gold.”at 1:09:41
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants ·
Buying a 70-cent Canadian dollar put expiring 11/06/2026 to bet on CAD weakness against the dollar.
Patrick expresses Brent's dollar-over-Canadian-dollar view through options on Canadian dollar futures. The Canadian dollar is around 70.37 US cents and has moved about 260 pips, roughly 3.5%, peak to trough in 27 days, yet implied volatility is below 5%, so the premium is modest. He buys the 70-cent put with about 29 days left, costing about 22 pips. A return to 69 cents would give about 78 pips of profit net of the premium, roughly 3.5 times the risk. He notes the trade needs timely downside follow-through, and that a near-term dollar pullback could cause a Canadian dollar rebound.
“So here's the structure. With the Canadian dollar trading around 70.37 US cents, I'm looking at buying the 70¢ put option expiring on 11/06/2026 with about twenty nine days remaining.”at 49:52
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #553 Brent Johnson: Disparate Housewives ·
11 older views from Patrick Ceresna are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- MacroVoices · 5 episodes
Ask your AI what Patrick Ceresna thinks
Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view Patrick Ceresna has shared on the shows it covers, next to everyone else's. Ask where they stand, what changed, and who disagrees.
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