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What podcasters are saying about US dollar
Summary
In the past 30 days, 35 speakers on 20 finance podcasts discussed US dollar in 46 views. Chorus has followed US dollar since September 22, 2026: 48 views from 36 speakers on 21 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Patrick Ceresna · 6
- Danny Moses · 2
- Matthew Piepenburg · 2
- Maria Vassalou · 2
- Brent Johnson · 2
- Chris Whalen · 2
- Nick Nemeth · 2
- Howard Marks · 2
- Luke Gromen · 1
- Axel Merk · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
The dollar will rise in a recession, as it always does, even as foreign central banks sell Treasuries.
The dollar was already up this year, and foreign central banks are on pace to sell about $600 billion of Treasuries since February. Gromen expects the dollar to strengthen in a recession as it always does, because global deleveraging drives demand for dollar liquidity. He sees this as part of a setup where Treasury supply rises while buyers disappear.
“Dollar's gonna rise in a recession as it always does.”at 31:08
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Patrick Ceresna · Big Picture Trading
The dollar bull trend holds; a break of the euro's 1.11 level could drive further dollar strength.
The dollar's bull trend is intact because the Fed did not pivot dovishly. Sterling, the Canadian dollar and the Aussie have bounced and retraced much of their weakness, but the euro is still near its 52-week lows. If the 1.11 level gives way, the euro may start another leg down. Because the euro is a very large weight in the dollar index, that alone could push the dollar higher even without funding stress lifting it directly. The euro is the pair to watch.
“if this one eleven level gives out, the euro may be starting another leg down. And because the euro is such a huge weighting in the dollar index, that alone may drive dollar strength”at 47:03
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Axel Merk · Merk Investments
Dollar stays dominant without a rival; the alternative to the dollar is fragmentation, not another currency.
Merk agrees that BRICS-type currency alternatives won't emerge, but says the question is wrong: the dollar does not need a rival, and the alternative is fragmentation with no world reserve currency. Deglobalization threatens the 'machinery' that makes US borrowing cheap, since the US borrows cheaply to invest abroad, which is effectively a short on the dollar. In risk-off episodes, deleveraging squeezes the dollar higher. Policymakers can kick the can down the road, and the US has deeper pockets than Europe, so the dollar stays dominant for a while, though foreigners may demand a higher price for debt. Central banks have an incentive to de-dollarize, but cannot do it overnight.
“There does not need to be an alternative. The alternative is fragmentation. The alternative is that there is no world reserve currency.”at 1:03:47
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Jeffrey Gundlach · DoubleLine Capital
The dollar still goes lower, which should keep boosting returns on his EM local-currency bonds.
Gundlach expects the dollar to keep weakening. He holds local-currency emerging market debt, where the weaker dollar adds currency translation gains on top of the bond yield. He says that combination has driven returns since June of last year, even though the path has been bumpy.
“But I think the dollar still goes lower. And because of that, I think you're gonna continue to make money on the currency translation.”at 23:22
Andrew McDermott · Mission Value Partners
A non-US trading system is emerging, with China–Iran trade settled in gold, challenging the dollar.
Andrew cites his friend Luke Gromen's argument that the financial system will have to be rebased on a gold standard. As evidence, he points to a non-US trading system already forming between China and US adversaries. He gives the example of commodity trade with Iran that is net-settled in gold. He presents this as a sign the dollar-based system is being bypassed.
“We're already seeing a non US system... Trading system between China and our adversaries. You know, they're trading with Iran for commodities with net settlement in gold.”at 48:56
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Colin Graham · Robeco
A stronger dollar keeps growth concentrated in the US; a weaker dollar would spread growth abroad.
Graham says a stronger dollar is good for the US and keeps growth there. He contrasts this with a weaker dollar, where growth spreads across the world, which helps emerging markets, but concentrates less of the growth in the US. He treats currency as a contributor to the overall financial conditions squeezing equity valuations.
“So the currencies are another contributor to that, stronger dollar, good for The US, but it means it keeps the growth in The US.”at 47:51
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Brett Rentmeester · WindRock Wealth Management
Money printing to backstop debt will drive inflation and pull demand toward non-dollar assets.
When rates rise or bond demand falls, governments tend to print money to be the buyer of last resort. He argues that printing creates inflation, and it leads people to want to own things that are not dollar denominated. He sees this as part of the reason for the current movement. He ties it to today's debt problems, which he says have no clear plan.
“They tend to come in and print money to the be the buyer of last resort. But printing the money then creates the inflation and it creates people wanting to own things that aren't dollar denominated.”at 8:04
Larry McDonald · The Bear Traps Report
The dollar is much lower and bearish, but the US will not lose reserve status in his lifetime.
His firm's book had a bearish dollar chapter written in 2022-23, and the dollar has since fallen a lot. He still expects the US to keep its reserve currency status, citing speed bumps such as stablecoin policy rather than a loss of status. The stablecoin channel is one of those speed bumps.
“We have a bearish dollar chapter... Dollar is much lower now. But in my lifetime... we're probably not gonna lose our reserve currency status.”at 33:43
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Benn Steil · Council on Foreign Relations
There is no credible alternative to the dollar; reserve diversification goes to gold, not rival currencies.
Steil calls the dollar the winner of an ugly dog contest, since currencies are always traded against other currencies, so a loss of faith would not clearly send money elsewhere. Major central banks have not broadly sold dollars for other currencies. They have bought gold instead. The yuan's CIPS settlement rose when Iran tolled the Strait of Hormuz and demanded RMB, but payments went back to SWIFT after the ceasefire. The euro is not an alternative either, given the lack of a eurozone sovereign debt market.
“the best way I've heard the US dollar described as the winner of an ugly dog contest.”at 15:19
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Mark Rzepczynski · AMPHI Research and Trading
The dollar is still dominant, but its reserve regime is breaking as central banks diversify.
The dollar is still the dominant currency. On the margin, however, central banks have reduced their dollar exposure. Mark sees a move toward multipolarity, with reserve managers holding a range of alternatives. He ties this to Treasury convenience yields: the reserve-currency convenience yield may not be in jeopardy, but on a relative basis it is being diminished. He cites Ken Rogoff's earlier appearance on the show as a reference.
“Yes. But on the margin, what we're seeing is that people have reduced their exposure, central bank holdings have reduced their exposure to the dollar and what we're seeing is that the dollar regime is breaking and there's more of multi polarity from central bank reserve managers to hold a number of different alternatives.”at 49:31
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Robin Wigglesworth · Financial Times
There is no credible alternative to the dollar or Treasuries; reserve status changes very slowly.
Robin initially says there is an alternative, but he ultimately argues that there is none. He stresses the force of inertia in global finance and how slowly things change. Europeans own roughly $15 trillion of US assets, and talk of them pulling out has not turned into action. He asks where that money would go, given that Japan, the euro area and China lack a comparable market, and questions whether investors would trust Beijing more than Washington. He is relaxed about the dollar's standing, while admitting he may be wrong.
“But I also definitely think there is no alternative. I mean, Europeans own, I think, [$15.16 trillion] dollars worth of US assets... where are you gonna put that money? I mean, there is no other market.”at 1:25:43
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George Noble · Noble Capital Advisors
All fiat currencies, including the dollar, are in terminal decline and losing value.
The dollar and other fiat currencies have collapsed at an accelerating rate, and the dollar has lost about 98% of its value over a hundred years. Its moves against the euro or yen are the wrong unit of account. Its value has also rested on US defence and the policeman-of-the-world role, which is weakening. Low-cost drones and unreliable allies show that the backing is eroding, so all fiat money is in terminal decline.
“The dollar, and for that matter, all fiat currencies have collapsed at a particularly accelerating rate the last couple of years.”at 56:02
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Jonathan Gould · Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)
Payment stablecoins will reinforce and extend US dollar dominance and create demand for Treasuries.
Gould argues US dollar dominance is central to the future and that the dollar's global market infrastructure is built around it. He says payment stablecoins are a mechanism to grow that dominance and export it further, which benefits the US beyond its borders. He agrees with the interviewer that this creates demand for US Treasury securities, a point he endorsed as absolutely right.
“This is very important when we talk about US dollar dominance over the over the future... So payment [stablecoins] are a mechanism for growing that, ensuring that that is important, not just obviously to The US, but even beyond.”at 5:00
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Patrick Ceresna · Big Picture Trading
Dollar strength can keep going because euro weakness leaves room for USD gains, perhaps toward 103.
Traders were positioned aggressively short the euro, pound and Canadian dollar against the dollar, at zero percentile of their look-back. The dollar's short-term high in October allowed the pound and Canadian dollar to retrace about 50% of their selloffs. The euro has barely bounced, though, and it is the largest component of the dollar index basket. If the euro has broken down and cannot rally even when the other pairs bounce, Ceresna sees more downside for it and an open window for the dollar to climb further. He suggests the index could reach 103, though he hedges it with 'maybe'.
“And if it is, the window remains open for the US dollar to continue higher. Maybe we're gonna see one zero three on the upside as we go.”at 1:27:29
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Jan van Eck · VanEck
Dollar holding firm against developed-market peers shows no broad selling of US assets.
Jan says the most important thing he watches in the bond sell-off is dollar strength. If investors were really selling the US, they would be selling the dollar too. The dollar has held strong against other developed-market currencies, which makes him less worried about the recent market move.
“the most important thing that I look at ... is just the strength of the dollar. So if people were really selling The United States, they'd be selling the U.S. Dollar as well.”at 50:20
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Danny Moses · Moses Ventures
Dollar's share of global reserves has fallen sharply, and US global standing as protector is being degraded.
He says the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and the US role as the world's protector are being degraded. He cites the dollar's reserve share falling from about 71-72% over the last twenty years to 57%, with a further move toward 52% possible, which he calls a massive move. He ties this to the US aligning with dictatorships and strains on NATO and Ukraine. He hedges that he is not saying the dollar will lose reserve status.
“It's gone from 71, 72% in the last twenty years to 57. You go from 57 to 52 or some... That's a massive move.”at 39:21
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James Aitken · Aitken Advisors
Dollar well supported near term by sticky inflows and Fed hikes, but a sharp, sudden collapse is possible later.
He says a dollar bear market has started, but the dollar stays well supported near term. Global asset allocators keep buying US credit, bonds and equities out of strategic-allocation inertia, and dollar assets still offer higher expected returns on earnings growth amid the AI capex boom. He adds a nascent Fed hiking cycle makes it hard for the dollar to fall while the Fed is on a mission. He thinks a big reduction in the dollar overweight will come slowly, then all at once, like Hemingway's bankruptcy. He sees US institutional degradation as a structural negative, and expects the rest of the world to fund heavy spending partly by selling US equities eventually.
“So we've got near term a dollar that is still well supported, but let's call them set and forget inflows from the rest of the world... So I'm pretty sanguine about the dollar.”at 43:03
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Ken Griffin · Citadel
If the US does not fix its fiscal position, the dollar weakens and living standards fall.
Griffin argues that the bond market's warning about US fiscal policy has not yet been heeded. If it is not, he expects higher inflation, a weaker dollar and a falling standard of living. The dollar view is conditional on policy failure rather than a forecast of current direction.
“we're gonna see higher inflation. We're gonna see the dollar weaken, and we're gonna see our standard of living fall.”at 41:59
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Jesper Koll · Monex Group
The dollar will collapse if the US falls into recession and the Fed cuts rates sharply.
Whatever the current cyclical view of the US, the next big dollar collapse comes if and when America enters recession. In that scenario the Fed would cut rates by 200 basis points within three or four months, and the dollar would fall. He says the carry trade is hard to quantify and much of the discussion is speculation, so the real risk sits in this recession scenario rather than in unwinds.
“The next collapse of the dollar is gonna come if and when America falls into recession... America will cut rates by 200 basis points within three or four months, and that's where the dollar is gonna be collapsing.”at 25:59
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Matthew Piepenburg · VON GREYERZ AG
The dollar has lost over 90% of purchasing power since 1971, and dedollarization is accelerating.
He argues the dollar is being debased. Since 1971 it has lost more than 90% of its purchasing power in absolute terms and more than 99% against gold. He ties this to a shift away from the dollar. Central banks are stacking gold, now hold more gold than US Treasuries, and BRICS countries are moving away from the dollar. He also points to a weakening petrodollar and says the BIS has made gold a tier-one asset. He presents this as a debt crisis showing up in currency.
“Since 1971, the US dollar has lost more than 90% purchasing power in absolute terms and more than 99% in its purchase power against gold.”at 20:12
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Matthew Piepenburg · VON GREYERZ AG
The dollar faces repricing and less reserve dominance, moving toward a more multipolar world order.
He says the debt problem cannot be solved by stablecoins, yield curve control, restructuring or gold revaluation. The outcome is a repricing of the dollar, less dollar hegemony, and a more modest America and economy. He thinks this leads to a more multipolar system with debased currencies globally. He argues that the dollar is distrusted and that the Treasury market has lost its buyers.
“less dollar hegemony, less dollar and American hegemony in the world, a more multipolar system, a more modest America, a more modest economy”at 53:42
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Danny Moses · Moses Ventures
Dollar's share of global reserves has fallen from 71% to 57%, yet taking its status for granted is risky.
Moses cites the dollar at 57% of world reserves, down from 71% a couple of decades ago. He says it is still dominant and not going anywhere. He adds that BRICS nations have discussed creating their own currency, and that investors take the dollar's reserve status for granted, which he calls playing with fire.
“The dollar is 57% of the world's reserve currency. It was 71% a couple of decades ago. It's dropping, still dominant. It's not going anywhere.”at 40:16
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Bob Michele · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
The dollar is the only reserve currency; no credible alternative exists for the first time in his career.
Official institutions keep asking whether they should diversify away from dollar assets and which alternative reserve currency to use, and for the first time in his career he cannot name one. He walks through the history: the yen was the supposed challenger in the late 1980s and faded; the euro looked like it would match the US but stalled because monetary union without fiscal union did not work; the renminbi was touted after 2009 and also faded. Gold is also a poor substitute because central banks use it as a reflection of their policy outcomes rather than a tool to hit their inflation objective. Nobody is willing to challenge the dollar for now.
“So today, we sit here, and, really, the dollar is the only reserve currency out there. Nobody wants to fight it for now.”at 23:33
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Jim Paulsen · Paulsen Perspectives (Substack)
The dollar's large 2025 decline was the biggest stimulus, and that tailwind has now stopped.
Paulsen argues that the largest policy stimulus in 2025 was not oil or yields, even though those moved a lot. It was a huge fall in the real value of the US dollar. That stimulus has now stopped. Because policy effects lag by months, the dollar's reversal is part of why he expects softer economic momentum to follow.
“And the biggest policy stimulus last year wasn't oil. It wasn't yields even though they were big. It was a huge drop in the real value of the US dollar, and that has stopped.”at 24:09
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Patrick Ceresna · Big Picture Trading
The dollar remains in a primary bull trend, with a pullback toward 101 possible but dips still bought.
Ceresna says the US dollar index hit a higher high near 103 on the hot CPI print, then pulled back the next morning. He describes the dollar as still in a primary bull trend. He notes the index could easily absorb a pullback toward 101. He says it is too early to conclude that intermarket signals will pressure dollar flows. As long as dips continue to be bought, he would still consider the trend a clean bull market.
“The dollar index could easily absorb a pullback down towards one zero one. But so long as dips are being bought, I would still consider technically in a clean bull trend.”at 1:07:06
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Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro Research
Strong dollar is driven mainly by high real rates and Fed credibility, and it lowers imported inflation.
Jeff says a strong dollar lowers the inflation impact of imported goods, which is good news and tends to help forward inflation. The dollar's strength reflects two things. The main one is the Fed's credibility, which shows in high real rates: the higher the real rates, the stronger the dollar. The more recent second factor is concern about Europe, specifically France. Japan and the UK face large fiscal problems too, but they have not gone over the cliff yet. He calls the combination a double whammy, but says the more enduring trend is real rates. Those rates pull the dollar higher and put pressure on gold. Over time, that tightens financial conditions and could hit aggregate demand.
“the strong dollar is a reflection really of two things. One is the Fed's credibility and that credibility is through those real rates and the higher those real rates, the stronger the dollar.”at 40:32
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Kelvin Pang · Morgan Stanley
Investors increasingly need to manage currency exposure as the dollar cycle shifts.
Pang says investors increasingly need to manage currency exposure as the dollar cycle shifts. He ties this to the broader APAC approach, where local currency rates bring exposure to currencies and the economic cycle, and currency hedged local bonds can limit foreign exchange risk. The point is brief and asserted rather than backed by numbers, so it carries lower conviction.
“Investors increasingly need to manage currency exposure”at 3:54
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David Vélez · Nubank
US dollar stablecoins will help the dollar keep its reserve status, though it won't be unique.
He argues that US stablecoins democratize access to the dollar. The US fiscal position is deteriorating, but it is still better than that of more than 100 other countries, many with weak central bank balance sheets. Demand for US stablecoins is strong, while demand for a Brazilian stablecoin is very small. He expects the dollar to keep its reserve-currency power for a very long time. He also expects five or six other fiat currencies and a few crypto tokens to become savings diversifiers, so the dollar will not be unique.
“[US stablecoins] ultimately will be the big savior or one of the biggest saviors of the US dollar because it democratizes access to the US dollar.”at 26:36
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Danielle Park · Croft Financial Group
The dollar still acts as a safe haven, but it could underperform significantly once the system is cleaned out.
Rate-blowup forecasts (runaway deficits and dollar collapse) aren't ruled out, but so far the dollar index is rebounding during this week's risk-off move. Prices have stayed in a rising channel from the 2008 bottom. She thinks once the dead weight in the system is cleared, which she sees as essential to a sustainable restart, the dollar could easily begin to underperform significantly. For now it still benefits from flight-to-safety flows.
“we could very easily see the U.S. Dollar begin to underperform significantly”at 53:56
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Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial
Dollar strength reflects tightening global credit and dollar-funding demand, not a US economic boom.
The conventional explanation for dollar strength is rising US yields drawing in foreign capital. Snider argues the dollar rises more when global credit conditions and monetary flows deteriorate. The dollar, or Eurodollar, remains the main currency for international borrowing, trade finance, commodity settlement and collateral. When banks and businesses turn cautious, access to dollar funding tightens, and borrowers need dollars to service dollar liabilities rather than because the American economy is booming. He cites this as the same boring message as iron's weakness: restrictive global financial conditions.
“But the dollar also rises, and it rises more importantly when global credit conditions and monetary flows deteriorate.”at 10:08
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