Speaker · Updated
George Noble: latest market views
Noble Capital Advisors
Summary
George Noble is Managing Partner of Noble Capital Advisors and author of The Noble Update on Substack, a former Fidelity analyst under Peter Lynch who ran the top-ranked Fidelity Overseas Fund and later ran his own hedge funds.
Chorus has 79 views from George Noble across 4 episodes on The David Lin Report, Monetary Matters and Bloomberg Surveillance since October 21, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on SLB, Southwest Airlines Co. and SSR Mining; bearish on Anthropic, CoreWeave, Micron Technology and OpenAI.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBearish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- Micron TechnologyBearish ·
- OpenAIBearish ·
- OracleBearish ·
- SLBBullish ·
- Southwest Airlines Co.Bullish ·
- Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish ·
- SSR MiningBullish ·
- TeslaBearish ·
- Prudential FinancialBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AI is a bubble; no one has shown him the return on AI investment.
George argues AI investment is a bubble. He says no one has shown him the ROI, and when he reduces AI to unit economics 'the numbers don't add up.' He compares it to the South Sea bubble, the dot-com bust and the US housing bubble. He says AI spending is cash-flow negative and funded on the expectation of ever-higher rounds rather than cash returns, a greater-fool setup. He adds that price appreciation for AI-related assets has started slowing meaningfully, which tightens capital flows and slows growth.
“I think what I'm troubled by with AI bubble... That is a bubble. No one could show me the ROI.”at 2:09
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Global cost of capital is rising, and the most leveraged AI players will be shot first.
George says that when free money ends, the most leveraged, least efficient producers, which have done best so far, will be the first to fail. As the tide goes out and the global cost of capital rises, the leveraged AI players are exposed. He connects this to rising debt costs for CoreWeave and other neoclouds.
“But when the tide goes out and globally, the cost of capital is rising... those are the guys who get shot first.”at 3:47
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
AI compute and token prices are collapsing while AI company balance sheets deteriorate.
George says the industry's costs are collapsing and compute and token pricing is falling at a breathtaking rate. Every week a model comes out that is half as expensive as the prior one. At the same time, AI companies' balance sheets are deteriorating just as fast, with debt rising. Falling prices combined with rising debt is, in his view, the core problem with the AI business.
“costs are collapsing and the pricing on compute and tokens is collapsing at a breathtaking rate.”at 4:24
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Chinese open-weight models deliver AI at about 95% lower cost than US closed models.
George says the Chinese can do the same work for 95% less using open models. He uses this to argue that the price of AI is collapsing, which hurts the economics of the closed US labs charging for access.
“Yet the Chinese can do it all for 95% less with their open models.”at 4:54
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
AI labs' revenue growth is slowing rapidly, and the market rejected OpenAI's accounting explanation.
George points to OpenAI postponing its IPO to 2027 and to talk of slowing revenue growth at Anthropic. He cites a recent OpenAI revenue miss, which the company blamed on a gross-versus-net accounting change, and says the market was not convinced. He argues growth rates of 45% don't matter when a company is valued at $1.5 to $2 trillion on $50 to $70 billion of revenue, and that the slowdown is what drives capital flows.
“And if you look at these companies, the revenue growth is slowing rapidly.”at 8:25
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscaler earnings will turn negative by 2030 as AI depreciation exceeds all their profits.
George assumes hyperscalers will have about $2.5 trillion of AI chips and infrastructure assets by 2030. On that basis, depreciation will run above $500 billion a year, which exceeds all the profits of the hyperscalers. He says this makes the balance sheets 'hemorrhaging badly', because the debt commitments and depreciation charges are real regardless of how revenue develops.
“do you realize hyperscaler earnings will turn negative in 2030? ... depreciation is going to be running over $500,000,000,000 That exceeds all the profits of all these guys.”at 11:38
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI's addressable market is a fraction of what most people think it is.
George says the addressable market for AI is a fraction of what people think. He bases this on the gap between the subscription market at $20 a month and the much smaller market at the $200 cost-based price. He argues that enterprise customers such as banks and industrials are unlikely to buy directly from the labs, so the total market is smaller than the valuations imply.
“the addressable market for this thing, in my opinion, is a fraction of what people think it is.”at 13:06
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
AI subscriptions are underpriced; at true unit cost, the $200 tier's addressable market is a fraction of $20's.
George says AI labs sell consumer subscriptions at about $20 a month, but the cost of compute and energy implies a price closer to $200. Few people would pay $200 a month, so the addressable market at the real price is a small fraction of the market at $20. He concludes that the revenue is being sold below cost, like 'anyone can sell dollar bills for 20 cents.' He also says marginal costs eventually have to be charged, as with ride-hailing and delivery apps after their IPOs.
“sources I've read, they're selling stuff for $20... And you do the unit economics, should be like $200.”at 15:24
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Enterprise AI adoption & AI software
Large industrial companies won't become customers of Anthropic or OpenAI because of compliance and data risks.
George says a buy-side industrials analyst friend asks companies what they are doing with AI and almost universally they will not become customers of Anthropic or OpenAI. They cite compliance and data issues, and see sending trade secrets to an outside model as unacceptable. George uses this to argue that the enterprise revenue many expect from banks and large industrials, such as Pfizer, Boeing and GE, will not materialise.
“None of them are gonna become customers of Anthropic or OpenAI because of the compliance and data issues involved.”at 17:01
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
OracleBearish
Oracle's debt-funded AI buildout is raising creditors' worries about repayment.
George says some creditors involved in CoreWeave and Oracle are starting to worry whether they will be repaid. He says if the credit is in doubt, the equity can be marked at zero. He also questions Oracle's leadership, asking whether CEOs fall victim to the same things retail investors do, and says Oracle may be over-expanding and struggling to keep up with its debt.
“some of the folks involved in the [CoreWeave] and Oracle and all the other assorted garbage are starting to worry whether they're not gonna get paid back.”at 18:46
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Markets will reward AI capex cuts, and that will collapse the AI spending trade soon.
George argues that the market has punished companies for spending more on data centers, reading the spending as overreach or competitive fear. He expects that a CEO who cuts back and says so will be rewarded with a higher stock price, because the market sees the spending as unprofitable. That reversal would cause the whole AI spending trade to collapse, which he thinks is coming soon.
“maybe we should stop expanding and the stock price goes up because they make an announcement of cutting back, the whole thing just collapses. And I think that's coming soon with theater near you.”at 20:40
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave is a WeWork-with-GPUs; its equity is worth a fraction of today's price.
George describes CoreWeave as WeWork with GPUs. It borrows long-term to buy depreciating chips, the way WeWork borrowed to hold long leases, or Hertz to hold rusting cars. He says the GPU useful life is debatable, and a recession or faster chip obsolescence would hit used-chip values. Equity holds a thin slice of equity against a lot of debt. He says CoreWeave's debt yields about 7%, and at a 15% cost of equity the stock looks dreadful. Rising cost of capital makes the short better now than when he first recommended it. He also says if the credit is questioned, the equity can be marked at zero.
“I actually argue it's probably a better short than it was then because the cost of capital has gone up so enormously.”at 25:53
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish
SpaceX is massively overvalued at over 100x sales; a short that will prove hugely profitable.
George says SpaceX trades at roughly 100 to 120 times sales, with a market cap above $2 trillion. He values Starlink at about $300 to $400 billion and the rocket business at a few tens of billions, so the rest is a cash-flow-negative AI bet that the market cannot justify. He adds that a large share unlock is coming, and that a company valued this high cannot grow into its valuation. He calls the proposed SpaceX-Tesla merger committee 'happy talk' and says a SpaceX short will be hugely profitable over time.
“I think the fullness of time shorting SpaceX is going to be hugely profitable.”at 30:44
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
TeslaBearish
Tesla's roughly $1.5 trillion value is unjustified by its cumulative profits of about $38 billion.
George says Tesla has made about $38 billion of cumulative profits, despite billions in emissions and tax credits. Its best year was about $15 billion, and sales are now declining. In a chart exercise, he hid the company name and asked analysts to value the profit history, and their estimates were in the $150 to $300 billion range, far below Tesla's market cap. He treats Tesla and SpaceX as inextricably linked and describes the merger talk as two overpriced companies holding each other up.
“They've made $38,000,000,000 cumulatively. That's despite billions and billions and billions of emission credits and tax credits.”at 32:50
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
AI and tech stocks are a bubble driven by endless money printing and narratives.
Investors, including large institutions, are chasing narratives and dreams. Endless money printing has fuelled the whole AI boom, so the market is broken and rewards hype. He cites the market's move to a national gambling pastime, with stocks priced on beats and whisper numbers rather than sustainable earnings. He says AI stocks are priced for a bright future that he does not believe in.
“They're chasing narratives and dreams. And the problem is, is we have this endless money printing that's fueled this whole thing.”at 34:24
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
OpenAIBearish
OpenAI's annualised run-rate revenue claims are misleading and should be dismissed.
OpenAI and Anthropic claim a $50bn revenue run-rate, which is simply the latest week's revenue annualised. He says that is meaningless and that it preys on ill-informed investors. Using Jack Farley's example, a quarter's revenue annualised says nothing about sustainable value. He dismisses such proclamations out of hand as a red flag for valuations.
“Anthropic or OpenAI and they say, oh, well, you know, we realized a run rate of revenue of $50,000,000,000. ... It should be illegal to say that because you're preying on ill informed investors.”at 38:53
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's annualised run-rate revenue claims are misleading and should be dismissed.
Anthropic and OpenAI claim a $50bn revenue run-rate, which is simply the latest week's revenue annualised. He says that is meaningless and that it preys on ill-informed investors. Using Jack Farley's example, a quarter's revenue annualised says nothing about sustainable value. He dismisses such proclamations out of hand as a red flag for valuations.
“Anthropic or OpenAI and they say, oh, well, you know, we realized a run rate of revenue of $50,000,000,000. ... It should be illegal to say that because you're preying on ill informed investors.”at 38:53
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
TeslaBearish
Tesla has gone nowhere for five years and its valuation is unjustified; he is short it.
Tesla's stock has been unchanged for five years while the market rose sharply, so owning it has been a bad investment, while his short taken at the end of last year is up about 20-25%. He argues Tesla trades at about 14 times revenue, while an ex-growth auto company should trade near one times sales. He also says Musk has never earned his cost of capital except in one year, so the valuation is not supported by economics, and that accounting loopholes and unenforced rules let the market price this anyway.
“The last five years, Tesla has done nothing. It's unchanged while the market skyrocketed. Owning Tesla for the last five years has been a bad investment decision.”at 40:37
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish
SpaceX is the grossest overvaluation he has seen; he is short it.
He compares SpaceX's valuation with what its reported earnings would support. Annualising Jack Farley's quarterly figures (roughly $5bn adjusted EBITDA and $431m GAAP superintelligence revenue) gives about $20bn, far below the roughly $2.2 trillion valuation he cites. He argues the valuation is a sum-of-the-parts fantasy and that it is fuelled by irresponsible monetary policy. He says he is short SpaceX and has lost money on it.
“...this is like the biggest, this is the grossest overvaluation at scale I've ever witnessed in my life, all fueled by irresponsible monetary policy.”at 42:23
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave is a great short; its neocloud earnings are a temporary shortage windfall.
He calls neoclouds 'bottleneck bros' whose stock prices spike because of a compute shortage, and who then get valued on annualised peak-quarter earnings at about 100 times next year's earnings. He argues sustainable earnings power is perhaps 20% of what is being capitalised. At 50 times revenue or 20 times book value, he calls it a great short. He says he is short CoreWeave and could also short other neoclouds.
“Why would I short NVIDIA when I couldn't short the Neo Clouds? I could short CoreWeave.”at 43:24
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Micron TechnologyBearish
Micron is over-earning on peak memory margins; he would be short, not long.
Micron's current earnings reflect an unsustainable peak. An 85% gross margin is not normal, and a single-digit P/E on those earnings is misleading. He expects margins to normalise, sooner rather than later, once excess returns get competed away, as happened in shipping. He is not short Micron today only because he prefers CoreWeave.
“Micron just is a company that's over earning. ... But I wouldn't own micro. I put a gun in my head, I'd be short.”at 46:17
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Chip makers' monopoly-level profits will fade within a couple of years; semis are a no-fly zone.
Semiconductor gross margins are far above their long-run average, 85% at Micron, and that is not normal. Chinese and Japanese advances and reports out of Korea will erode the monopoly profits. He is highly convinced these profits will not last a couple of years, so semis are a no-fly zone, with selective shorts possible. He compares semis to shipping, where supply responds to windfall profits.
“I'm highly convicted that these monopoly profits will not be with us within a couple of years. ... So to me, semis are the no fly zone.”at 50:05
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Deficits look harmless until the bond market stops tolerating them, and that point is near.
Deficit concerns have been wrong for twenty years, but at a certain point they start to matter, like a reservoir draining. The thermometer is the bond and credit markets. Foreign buyers have been net sellers, Japanese buyers have stepped back, and the political climate brings bailouts and checks. He argues this will be a problem once markets stop tolerating the borrowing. A recession would also blow out the deficit.
“At a certain point, it starts to matter. ... the thermometer here is the bond market, the credit markets. As long as the markets will tolerate this, okay, keep doing it.”at 54:13
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Gold will rise because central banks are debasing money and must resume printing.
Gold is a means of preserving real wealth as money is debased. He expects governments to be forced to run the printing presses again because the system cannot tolerate high rates and deficits. Gold is an insurance policy against central-bank stupidity, not a yield-producing asset, and its rise reflects falling money value. He admits gold has not done well this year but still expects it to rise.
“We are destroying the value of money, which is why gold with more than anything, it's a means of preserving your wealth in real terms. So I think the price of gold is going to go up.”at 55:22
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
SSR MiningBullish
SSR Mining is his favourite gold-miner name after a strong rebound.
Gold miners sold off and then rebounded strongly, and he calls SSR his favourite name among them. His broader gold thesis, that currency debasement will drive gold higher, supports the miners. He says his fund has done well this year in part because of gold and precious metals.
“Some of the stocks after they went down, they rebounded nicely. SSR has been my favorite name.”at 55:26
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
All fiat currencies, including the dollar, are in terminal decline and losing value.
The dollar and other fiat currencies have collapsed at an accelerating rate, and the dollar has lost about 98% of its value over a hundred years. Its moves against the euro or yen are the wrong unit of account. Its value has also rested on US defence and the policeman-of-the-world role, which is weakening. Low-cost drones and unreliable allies show that the backing is eroding, so all fiat money is in terminal decline.
“The dollar, and for that matter, all fiat currencies have collapsed at a particularly accelerating rate the last couple of years.”at 56:02
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
He is bearish on bonds; yields will rise meaningfully on fiscal and term-premium concerns.
He has been routinely bearish on bonds for years and still is. Irresponsible spending meets a global capex boom, including AI, alternative energy and more. Yield increases reflect the term premium and doubts about future fiscal sustainability rather than inflation alone. Real rates are high by post-GFC standards but still too low given speculation. He expects rates to go meaningfully higher, though a recession could briefly help bonds.
“I think bond yields, I've been readily, routinely bearish on bonds last few years. I still am. ... the rates will still go to be going meaningfully higher.”at 56:58
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Inflation is sticky and will not fall to the Fed's target; the risk is inflation, not recession.
The Fed has missed its inflation target for roughly 66-67 months, and inflation is sticky and not coming down. He rejects the view that rate rises are just a reaction to an inflation surge. He sees the rise in yields as term-premium and fiscal driven. He says the risk right now is inflation rather than recession, so bonds are no longer a reliable hedge against a stock sell-off.
“I think it's gonna be hard for inflation to come down to where people think it should. ... inflation is sticky. It's not coming down.”at 57:31
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Central banks will not rescue risk assets with rate cuts; the backstop is not coming.
He says the policy put for risk assets will not come. If an AI capex bust happened and a recession followed, the deficit would explode, so bonds might not rally much. Rate cuts will not save equities. He credits Michael Howell's view that global liquidity is tightening and excess liquidity is fading, which he thinks is the right framework for risk assets.
“They're not gonna rescue you. They're not gonna bail you out. ... We got your back. That ain't happening.”at 1:00:24
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
Index is dominated by tech, so the best opportunities lie outside the S&P 500.
Tech is about 40% of the S&P 500 and the index is correlated with tech, while energy is only about 3.4%. Big managers are forced to focus on relative weights, such as Apple versus Nvidia, rather than the best ideas. He compares this to Japanese banks in the 1980s, when owning them was forced by index weight. He says this is a golden age of stock picking and that shorts exist in large index parts.
“I'm telling you the opportunities lie outside the indices.”at 1:06:08
Monetary Matters: "Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" ·
49 older views from George Noble are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- The David Lin Report · 2 episodes
- Monetary Matters · 1 episode
- Bloomberg Surveillance · 1 episode
Ask your AI what George Noble thinks
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