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What podcasters are saying about US inflation
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In the past 30 days, 78 speakers on 32 finance podcasts discussed US inflation in 111 views. Chorus has followed US inflation since September 22, 2026: 115 views from 81 speakers on 33 shows.
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Kevin Warsh · Federal Reserve
Inflation remains too high after running above target for close to six years.
Warsh said inflation has run above the committee's objective for close to six years and remains elevated. Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks. His job is to keep relative price changes in some sectors from broadening across the economy. He stresses the Fed's responsibility to get inflation down, which is why the committee focused on price stability.
“But inflation is too high. Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks.”at 4:52
The David Lin Report: Fed Split Over Rates: Why Didn't The Fed Hike Today? ·
Kevin Warsh · Federal Reserve
Market inflation compensation and expectations are moving the right way, a good Fed signpost.
Warsh pointed to market measures of inflation compensation, including swaps and other prices, which he said are going in the right direction. He said expectations might have gone the wrong way absent the Fed's actions, but they have instead gone the right way. He said he feels good about these signposts from the new monetary strategy.
“Inflation compensation as measured by swaps, prices, many other measures, inflation compensation is going in the right way.”at 10:19
The David Lin Report: Fed Split Over Rates: Why Didn't The Fed Hike Today? ·
Nela Richardson · ADP
Wages are not a source of inflation; ECI shows base pay normalizing near 3%.
Richardson says that wages are not a source of inflation, and she sees that in the employment cost index. Base pay is about 3% from last year, which she describes as normalized and boring. The argument rests on the ECI and on the fact that the wage growth at the bottom comes from working more hours, not from higher hourly rates.
“the key thing coming from the jobs market is wages are not a source of inflation, and that's the bottom line. You see that in the ECI.”at 16:17
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 30th, 2026 ·
Jay Hatfield · Infrastructure Capital Advisors
Real-time rent data show CPI inflation near 1.2%, well below reported figures.
Hatfield says CPI shelter uses a renewal-based rent method that the BLS deliberately delayed by six months, adding roughly a year and a half of lag, so CPI runs about two years behind market rents. Using real-time rents, CPI is 1.2% year over year, versus 2.6% reported a month earlier. He says money supply is flat year over year, rents are flat and falling, and oil at $60 would push inflation negative, so any reasonable forecast lands near 1.2%.
“They purposely delayed six months. ... If you use real time rents, CPI year over year is 1.2.”at 39:41
Excess Returns: Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble? ·
Darius Dale · 42 Macro
No disinflation yet in the system; 2% inflation is not in sight on CPI or PCE.
He is skeptical of the view that inflation returns to 2% next year in Q2 due to base effects. Reaching 2% year over year requires several months of 2% annualized prints on a three-month and six-month basis, and CPI and PCE are not showing that. So he sees no disinflation in the system right now.
“We're pretty good at forecasting. We don't see any disinflation in the system right now.”at 18:49
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections ·
Meb Faber · Cambria Investment Management
Sustained higher inflation raises stock-bond correlation, weakening 60/40 diversification when it is needed most.
Citing Vanguard research, sustained higher inflation tends to raise the correlation between stocks and bonds, as seen in the 1950s, 1970s and 1990s. Bank of America noted that a 60/40 portfolio had its worst annualized performance in a century through the first three quarters of 2022, when stocks and bonds fell together for three straight quarters. Rubico's global data back to 1875 showed that when inflation exceeded 4%, the global 60/40 averaged negative real returns of about 2.9% per year. The diversification from bonds can therefore weaken when inflation is high.
“And then there's research from Vanguard showing that sustained higher inflation tends to raise the correlation level between stocks and bonds. We saw it in the nineteen fifties, the nineteen seventies, nineteen nineties.”at 4:02
The Meb Faber Show: Cambria Fund Profile – Asset Allocation Suite ·
Chris Swift · The Hartford
Insurance pricing reflects broad economic inflation, so insurance is not a major inflation driver.
Swift disagrees with the view that insurance is a major driver of inflation. The cost of the product reflects the economy, with inflation in lumber, bricks, and labor. Litigation, which is out of control, is also reflected in prices. He notes that severe convective storms have increased across most of the country, adding to losses. Insurance costs are therefore a reflection of broader inflation rather than a cause of it.
“It's false. ...our cost of goods sold or the cost of our product is a reflection of the economy in general.”at 27:37
Mad Money with Jim Cramer: Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 10/29/26 ·
Chris Verrone · Baird Strategas
Disinflationary pressure is building; crack spreads, materials and commodities softening, will surprise consensus into 2027.
Verrone stitches together several signals: refining crack spreads have peaked and hit three-month lows this week, materials have softened, gold and silver have weakened, and restaurant stocks have turned higher after a commodity-cost pressure seems to abate. Consumer sectors are responding as if high-end yields may be peaking. He thinks this disinflation is what will look very different from consensus as investors look ahead to 2027.
“as we look ahead to '27, what's gonna look very different than consensus expects? There's some disinflationary pressure starting to build here.”at 15:01
Rick Wurster · The Charles Schwab Corporation
Inflation is the biggest risk to stocks, mainly by pushing bond yields up and lifting discount rates.
Rick names inflation as the biggest risk to the market. The mechanism is that if bond yields keep rising, the large amount of debt in the world becomes more expensive. The discount rate applied to equities then rises. Carol notes inflation seems persistent, and Rick agrees it is something to watch.
“I think to me, the the biggest risk is inflation because the way inflation could hurt the market is if bond yields continue to go up, there's a lot of debt in the world.”at 13:42
Bloomberg Talks: Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster Talks Future of AI ·
Steve Liesman · CNBC
Inflation is in the pipeline and won't clear even if oil flows normally.
Liesman argues that even if the oil supply normalizes, the Fed has to contend with inflation in the pipeline. He points to the PPI, where unprocessed and processed intermediate goods show a lot of inflation, so the supply shock may become the normal situation.
“My concern is that there's inflation in the pipeline here.”at 11:02
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Gary Cohn · IBM
Energy inflation turns zero to negative within six months on year-over-year base effects.
Cohn argues that the Fed and the market judge inflation year over year. Oil prices from last spring are the base, so moving the calendar forward roughly six months (and by end of Q1 next year, oil inflation would be zero) means energy inflation falls to zero or negative, even though refined products remain elevated.
“If they're solving for year over year, if we move the calendar forward six months, energy inflation will be zero to negative.”at 18:13
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Gary Cohn · IBM
Current inflation is supply-driven, not demand-driven, so rate hikes won't fix it.
Cohn contrasts today's inflation with post-COVID transitory inflation, when too many dollars chased too few goods. Now there is no demand-side excess; the problem is a lack of goods, so industrial policy and the Fed's blunt tools do little to solve it.
“So we do not have too many dollars chasing too few goods... Today, we have a lack of goods out there.”at 22:57
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Mike Feroli · J.P. Morgan
Getting inflation back to 2% will be hard; below 3% is possible if supply shocks ease.
Feroli expects inflation to stay above 2%. Much of this year's goods inflation looks like residual pass-through from tariffs and higher energy prices. Services inflation still looks high, which makes 2% challenging. Wage pressures are not the problem, so inflation can get back below 3% if the adverse supply shocks stop. He argues that if inflation is mainly supply-driven, returning to 2% need not cause a big rise in unemployment, since core PCE fell from 5.5% to 3% without much pain.
“I think getting all the way down to 2% or within that vicinity may be challenging. Certainly, [I] think a lot of the inflation we saw this year, given that it is in goods, looks like it's the residual pass through from both tariffs and higher energy prices.”at 5:41
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Kevin Hassett · White House National Economic Council
September's inflation jump is a blip driven by energy prices; October should return to about 2%.
He argues the September PCE jump of 0.5% was a one-off, driven by energy prices, not a new trend. Before September, three months in a row had run at a pace that would have reached the Fed's target. He cites the Cleveland Fed nowcast for October, which shows October looking like the prior months. If October comes in at that forecast, he says the June, July, August and October readings will all run at about 2%, and September will be viewed as a blip. He concedes that a high October print would change the picture and that the Fed would then appropriately act. He says the new data is the key test, not a view he holds regardless of outcome.
“if the October number comes in at the Cleveland Fed's forecast, then we'll have, August and, July and June and October all running with inflation at about 2%.”at 4:36
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
Powell miscalculated inflation's fall because fiscal stimulus and onshoring spending offset Fed tightening.
Powell intended a gradual glide path toward 2% inflation, but strong fiscal stimulus from Congress after COVID and spending to onshore industrial production interfered. Those forces made it hard to bring inflation down, and Powell did not realize it soon enough to get to the 2% goal during his term.
“the very strong stimulus coming from the fiscal side of the economy, from the Congress, the amount of spending that was going on following the COVID and following other efforts to onshore industrial production back to The United States.”at 6:25
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Andrew Dubinsky · UBS
US inflation should fall to mid-to-high 2% by end of Q1 as oil and tariff shocks lap.
Inflation is still firm on a year-over-year basis and is slightly over 3% going into year end. Dubinsky expects the key supply shocks to hit their one-year anniversaries around the turn of the year: the oil price shock, and the large tariff-driven inflation. Lapping those shocks should bring year-over-year inflation down to the mid-to-high 2% range by the end of Q1. He expects inflation to remain above target into 2027, so the disinflation is gradual rather than a return to target.
“essentially a one year anniversary of really big tariff inflation and that should help year over year inflation rates come down to the mid to high 2% range as we get to the end of Q1.”at 6:35
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: FOMC reflections & US economic update ·
Ira Jersey · Bloomberg Intelligence
Headline CPI will be back near 2% by next summer on base effects.
Base effects from last year's price moves will push headline CPI to about 2% at this time next year and even by next summer. He thinks the Fed is hiking now to buy time, because it can expect inflation to be near target by mid-next year.
“I think they're trying to buy a little bit of time here too... on base effects, we're going to be at 2% headline CPI at this time next year and actually even next summer.”at 12:24
Bloomberg Surveillance: Outlook for Inflation, Oil, and Tech ·
Danielle DiMartino Booth · QI Research
Inflation breadth is narrowing, so Warsh's own breadth test points to easing rather than hawkish caution.
At Jackson Hole Warsh said he watches the share of inflation inputs rising 3% or more in a month, and that inflation is spreading when that share is above 50%. Anna Wong estimates the breadth measure will fall to 38% on a six-month moving-average basis, and below 50% year over year. Danielle says there are fewer sources of rising prices than when he spoke at Jackson Hole, so he should be following the breadth measure he himself recommended, which doesn't support the hawkish stance.
“Anna estimates that that'll be 38% on a six month moving average basis and under 50% on a year over year basis.”at 17:42
The Julia La Roche Show: #426 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Could Slam the Economy Into Recession — Fed Day Reaction ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Fading tariffs should reduce the number of rising prices, showing the current US inflation shock is narrowing.
Donovan expects the new US price-pressure measure, which counts items rising in price, to improve as tariffs fade from the US inflation calculation. He argues fewer prices should be rising as tariffs fade, and that this underscores the narrowing nature of the current inflation shock. He thinks this will matter for economists assessing inflation persistence, though not much for public inflation perceptions. Energy inflation will push up headline numbers in the PCE release, but that is a separate effect.
“it was a metric that was bound to improve as tariffs start to fade from The US inflation calculation... fewer prices should be rising as the tariffs fade... And that underscores the narrowing nature of the current inflation shock.”at 1:11
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Mundanity upon mundanity' ·
Michael Gapen · Morgan Stanley
Much of current inflation is supply-driven by energy and tariffs, so rate hikes cannot fix it directly.
Gapen argues the Fed's hold reflects the view that much of today's inflation comes from supply shocks it cannot fix, because raising rates doesn't bring more oil to market. Without the tariffs, the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, inflation was decelerating and could have fallen close to 2% in Europe and the US. Monetary policy is poorly suited to every supply shock. The Fed's aim is to lean against second-round effects, where energy costs spill into other goods, so it hikes less than headline inflation would suggest.
“a lot of this inflation is driven by supply side forces that we can't really fix. In other words, the Fed raising rates doesn't bring more oil to markets.”at 22:38
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
Ed Elson · Prof G Media
Inflation may never return to the Fed's 2% target, since it has been far off for years.
The Fed emphasized doubling down on its 2% inflation target, but inflation has been well above that for several years. Elson is starting to believe the target will never be reached and that the economy has settled into a world where inflation stays far from it. He notes the Fed keeps saying the target is important but has been miles off for years. He asks whether the target is realistic and whether the Fed takes it seriously, and leans toward doubting it.
“I'm starting to think that that's just never gonna happen... I'm starting to think we just live in a world where inflation is never close to the target... we've been miles off for years.”at 26:52
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
Michael Gapen · Morgan Stanley
Core PCE should drift down to about 2.6% by end of 2027, still above the Fed's target.
Gapen treats core inflation as the best measure of underlying price trends, since headline is being driven by energy. He expects core inflation of about 3.1% year on year in the near term and around 3% by year end 2026. Residual seasonality, meaning firms raise prices early in the year, will keep inflation elevated and sticky through roughly the end of Q1 2027. After that, a clearer downward trend should bring core PCE to about 2.6% by the end of 2027. That is directionally toward the target but not all the way to it.
“We think core PCE finishes next year at around 2.6.”at 30:02
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
Jeffrey Gundlach · DoubleLine Capital
Headline CPI will print with a 4 handle for about five months as energy prices stay high.
Gundlach's inflation model leans heavily on energy prices, which are up sharply this year. Based on that model, which he says has been very accurate, headline CPI will start with a 4 and stay there for months as long as energy prices hold. Relief only comes once base effects roll off in the April report, likely printed in May. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is also well above its 200-day moving average and rising.
“The bad news is that based upon our inflation model, which has been very accurate over time and leans a lot on energy prices, which, of course, are up dramatically this year, we're gonna start seeing the headline CPI left of the decimal start with a four.”at 6:59
Priya Misra · J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Inflation is still a supply shock; conventional theory says look through it, but Fed is in risk management.
Misra's view is that the current inflation impulse is still a supply shock. Under conventional economic theory, a central bank would look through a supply shock. She reads the Fed's stance as risk management: it fears the shock will spread into broader prices. She also says the Fed was divided, with questions about whether it should have hiked in September, and she is not sure which way the committee will go. This makes the supply-versus-demand question the key to whether the Fed looks through or responds.
“But I'll go back to we think this is still a supply shock. There were questions on whether they should have hiked in September. If this is a supply shock, normal conventional economic theory would say look through it. I think this was risk management.”at 15:53
Bloomberg Surveillance: Instant Reaction: Fed Stands Pat; Lisa Cook & Beth Hammack Dissent ·
Gita Gopinath · Harvard University
Inflation around 3% is not drifting higher, so the Fed can take its time returning to 2%.
Gopinath says inflation is hovering around 3% and is not drifting further up, which should give some confidence. She does not think aggressive tightening to reach 2% quickly is right, since that would require a much tighter hiking stance. The return to 2% will be slow, and she is comfortable if inflation settles around 2.5%.
“So inflation is hovering around 3%. It's not drifting further up. That's important, and that should give some confidence.”at 8:33
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28th, 2026 ·
Constance Hunter · Economist Intelligence Unit
Rising global frictions push up prices and demand, unlike the friction-reducing 1990s.
The 1990s backdrop had falling frictions: free trade was advancing, more countries were becoming democratic and capitalist, institutions supported coordination, and the peace dividend followed the fall of the Berlin Wall. Today frictions are rising and global institutions are not easing them, so security and supply constraints are pushing up prices and in some cases demand. That makes today's inflation backdrop different from the 1990s tech boom.
“we are increasing frictions, where global institutions are not easing global frictions... security, supply... are really pushing up prices and in some cases pushing up demand.”at 6:00
Constance Hunter · Economist Intelligence Unit
AI is a small share of CPI for now, but its inflation effect could grow.
AI-related spending is not a large percentage of the consumer price basket, so it is not a big inflation driver today. The open question is whether that share grows as AI expands, which would add demand-pull inflation. She says it is unknown and that the team is closely monitoring it.
“It's not a large percent of the basket, but the question is, can that grow... As this continues to grow? And that is, I think, an unknown, but something that we are closely monitoring.”at 6:25
Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs
Most US inflation is structural rather than cyclical, and the economy is not overheating.
Kaplan argues that the bulk of current inflation may be structural rather than cyclical. Because of this, he does not believe the economy is overheating. This matters for policy because a cyclical overheating would justify faster rate increases, which he says he would support in that case.
“And on the inflation side, you got to say some of this inflation and maybe the bulk of it is structural, not necessarily cyclical. I don't know that there's an overheating of this economy.”at 4:12
Bloomberg Talks: Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Robert Kaplan Talks Fed Meeting ·
Michael Batnick · Ritholtz Wealth Management
Upper-end services prices, like limited-capacity experiences, will keep rising sharply.
Michael uses a $600 concert ticket at Barclays as an example. In 2021 companies blamed inflation for price hikes even where it did not affect their costs, and he sees no reason they will stop raising prices at the top end. He expects prices for limited-capacity experiences to rise 8-12% a year for the next ten years. He says the inflation is in services rather than goods, and Ben agrees, citing hotel prices.
“The tickets for experiences where it's a limited number is gonna go up eight to 12% a year for the next ten years.”at 29:27
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Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Current US inflation is a temporary supply-shock episode that will fade within a year, not a continuous inflation problem.
The Fed faces an inflation episode driven by supply shocks, which it cannot control. Donovan calls it a temporary problem that will fade within a year of starting, so policy could not have a meaningful impact on prices in the wider economy before it fades. The appearance of continuous inflation comes from the fourth one-off shock in a row. He argues that a continuous episode would mean prices that rose last year rise again this year and next, and that is not what is happening.
“The Fed's problem is that they are facing a supply shock driven inflation episode over which they have no control. It is a temporary inflation problem which will fade within a year of its starting”at 0:40
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Fed – mime versus meme' ·
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