Speaker · Updated
Ed Elson: latest market views
Prof G Media
Summary
Co-host of Prof G Markets with Scott Galloway and host of First Time Founders at Prof G Media, where he is a business writer and markets analyst.
Chorus has 51 views from Ed Elson across 9 episodes on Prof G Markets and The Compound and Friends since October 2, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Meta Platforms, Space Exploration Technologies, Microsoft and Waymo; bearish on Anthropic, CoreWeave, Tesla and Netflix.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBearish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- Meta PlatformsBullish ·
- Space Exploration TechnologiesBullish ·
- TeslaBearish ·
- NetflixBearish ·
- NVIDIABearish ·
- OpenAIBearish ·
- MicrosoftBullish ·
- WaymoBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's roughly $800B in compute commitments are not yet in its income statement, creating major cash and survival risk.
Ed is more worried about profitability than revenue. The filing shows about $800B in compute purchase agreements, including over $160B with Broadcom, $120B with SpaceX and $110B with Amazon, that are not yet reflected in the income statement. He says the company will pay in cash and plans to build its own compute, which will change its cash flow profile. The income statement is therefore backward-looking. He also notes that Ramp data shows 80% of spending on OpenAI and Anthropic comes from 1% of companies, and 80% of those are venture-backed, so the model depends on VC money and a buoyant stock market. He acknowledges Anthropic's cost discipline, but says there is significant risk it fails to keep up with costs and could go bankrupt.
“that they have signed up to spend $800,000,000,000 on compute purchasing agreements at some point. And we don't really know how long over what time frame that's gonna be spread out.”at 9:03
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Falling per-token spend hurts AI labs because their customers' revenue will slow.
Ed agrees that falling per-token compute costs are good for the labs, since they can get more compute for less. But he worries that per-token spend by the startups buying tokens or LLM usage is also falling, which is already happening. That would mean the labs' revenues start to slow, which is a problem for Anthropic and OpenAI. He says the labs are highly dependent on VC-funded startups.
“if that per token spend is also going down, which it is, then that is also gonna be a problem because it means that their revenues are gonna start to slow.”at 33:27
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Any AI bubble is very small with risks priced in; expects a correction but not a crash.
Elson agrees with Brown that AI multiples have fallen sharply: Nvidia's has dropped almost 50% since last year, and Micron's has been cut roughly in half. Depending on the definition of bubble, he thinks it is very small, with all the risks of things going wrong already priced in. He says Wall Street is front-running the boom-bust cycle after the 2008 short, so he expects some correction or drawdown. He thinks even a crash would look like nothing compared with past crashes.
“It's a very, very small one where it seems as though all of the risks of things going wrong are being priced in.”at 52:16
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Neoclouds have precarious debt; many may run out of money, a likely shakeout in that segment.
Elson says neoclouds, which were popular last year, are now being scrutinized for precarious debt obligations. He asks whether the money will run out and answers that for many of them it will. He expects the neocloud segment to see a correction or drawback as part of the broader AI cycle. He adds that a crash here would look small compared with past crashes.
“We're beginning to see it with the neo clouds... they have some precarious debt obligations, and will the money run out? And I think for a lot of them, will.”at 52:57
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
The Fed's hold may be political, since its stated strategy of raising rates to fight inflation contradicts the case that hikes won't help.
Some argue the Fed held rates the week before the midterms for political reasons, given the president's opposition to hikes. Elson hears the economist argument that raising rates won't reduce oil prices, which are driven by Iran, so the Fed should not respond to energy-driven inflation. But the Fed had already raised rates, and it had told markets that this was its strategy. Elson says that argument doesn't hold up, which makes him suspect the hold was political. He acknowledges he is not certain.
“But they already did raise rates. And so they've already told us we think this is gonna be our strategy... I don't fully buy it, and it makes me think maybe this was a political decision.”at 24:52
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
Inflation may never return to the Fed's 2% target, since it has been far off for years.
The Fed emphasized doubling down on its 2% inflation target, but inflation has been well above that for several years. Elson is starting to believe the target will never be reached and that the economy has settled into a world where inflation stays far from it. He notes the Fed keeps saying the target is important but has been miles off for years. He asks whether the target is realistic and whether the Fed takes it seriously, and leans toward doubting it.
“I'm starting to think that that's just never gonna happen... I'm starting to think we just live in a world where inflation is never close to the target... we've been miles off for years.”at 26:52
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
Microsoft's 27% buyout would leave headcount below pre-pandemic levels, a structural AI effect rather than an overhiring correction.
Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to 27% of its global workforce, after nearly 5,000 layoffs in July, while its capex keeps rising. Microsoft added almost 60,000 employees in the two years after COVID, so a cyclical overhiring correction is one explanation. But if 27% of staff actually leave, total headcount would fall below pre-pandemic levels. That looks structural and tied to AI, whether AI is replacing workers directly or through the cost of AI spending. Elson concedes AI's effect on the overall US job market has been negligible, but says it is beginning to have an impact in tech.
“If Microsoft actually eliminates 27% of its workforce like they're suggesting, then their total headcount will actually be lower than what it was before the pandemic... That actually looks like a structural consequence of AI.”at 34:43
Prof G Markets: Microsoft Rises, Google Tanks: Why Investors Are Polarized On Big Tech ·
AnthropicNeutral
Anthropic's $80B first-half net loss is a red herring from convertible-note fair-value accounting.
Elson argues that the headline $80B net loss in the first half does not reflect the operating business. The loss came from an increase in the fair value of Anthropic's convertible notes. Investors who lent money later received equity, so accounting rules required a write-up of an expense. The loss mainly reflects how much the company's value rose in a short time. He treats the headline as misleading, not as a sign of weak economics.
“Because those losses were a product of the increase in the fair value of Anthropic's convertible notes... So the $80,000,000,000 net loss, that's a red herring.”at 32:41
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's revenue growth slowed sharply in Q3, which may signal the AI frenzy is ending.
Elson argues that the S-1 does not show the full growth slowdown. Growth was about 150% quarter over quarter in Q2 but under 50% in Q3. The filing leaves Q3 out of its main charts, which is a major omission. He says that while this is not necessarily bad, it suggests the AI frenzy may be coming to an end. He treats Q3 as the data point that matters most for the next year, and he agrees with Eisman on the slowdown.
“revenue growth slowed down significantly in q three... Now that's not necessarily bad, but it does show that maybe the AI frenzy is beginning to come to an end.”at 33:30
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's $800B+ compute commitments will be added to losses, which are about to explode.
Elson's main point is that the S-1's $800B+ of future compute commitments are not yet in the income statement but will be. The contracts include $110B with Amazon, $115B with Google and $161B with Broadcom. The filing also says the company will significantly increase capex to build its own compute, which the $800B figure leaves out. Elson argues the true commitment is therefore probably much higher and that losses will rise. He says the narrowing losses will not persist, and that the picture will look drastically different next year. He also raises, as a theory, that the IPO may have been timed to avoid showing the losses.
“that $800,000,000,000 number is actually probably gonna be a lot higher. And as a result, this company's losses are about to explode.”at 34:46
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's reported $2T valuation is not what a proven safe corporate investment looks like.
Elson's closing argument is that the S-1 shows a company with an incredible product but an unproven business model. Losses, unpriced compute commitments and slowing growth all point to large risk. He says it is still a highly risky venture bet and could go spectacularly wrong. He therefore argues that a valuation near $2T does not reflect a proven, safe corporate investment, and that investors should treat the stock with caution.
“What it certainly isn't is a proven safe corporate investment, something that its potentially $2,000,000,000,000 valuation might suggest.”at 35:46
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's compute commitments above $800B are off the income statement, so reported losses understate future spending.
Elson adds up the Broadcom and Google compute agreements in the liquidity section and says Anthropic is about to spend more than $800B on compute on a timeline it does not disclose. None of it appears in the income statement. He concludes that the income statement tells you little about the business's coming cash needs, since the costs have not yet hit it. He does not argue this is deliberate; he sees it as a timing gap.
“they're about to spend more than $800,000,000,000 on compute. And none of that is included in the income statement.”at 9:47
Prof G Markets: The $800 Billion Catch Behind Anthropic's IPO ·
TeslaBearish
Tesla is in structural decline, with falling revenue and deliveries, and its stock has badly lagged.
Elson cites Tesla stock down 13% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by about three times over five years. He says the core business is in decline: revenue fell again last quarter and car deliveries fell as well. He argues the robotaxi and other stories are being used to distract from this. He says he owns Tesla indirectly through S&P 500 index holdings.
“Tesla stock, it's down 13% in the past year... the business is actually in decline. It's because revenue has fallen. It just fell again last quarter. The car deliveries just fell as well.”at 13:01
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
TeslaBearish
Tesla's robotaxi is millions of miles behind Waymo, which is the clear front-runner.
Elson says the robotaxi is the story investors are excited about, but Tesla is millions of miles behind Waymo. He describes Waymo as the winner and front-runner in the race, 'and it's not even close.' He treats this gap as a reason the Tesla story faces pressure. He says he owns Tesla indirectly through the S&P 500.
“The story people are excited about is the robotaxi... the robotaxi is, like, millions of miles behind Waymo, which is the the winner and the front runner in this race, and it's not even close.”at 13:38
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
TeslaBearish
Tesla holders get SpaceX stock whose price could fall, erasing the premium and their voting protections.
Elson expects the deal to be a stock swap, with Tesla holders converting shares into SpaceX stock at a premium RBC puts at 20-30%. Because the currency is SpaceX stock, the premium disappears if SpaceX falls 20% the next day. He sees that as likely, since he thinks SpaceX is overvalued. He also argues the deal consolidates control: Musk holds about 80% of SpaceX's votes versus about 20% at Tesla. Non-voting SpaceX shares would let Musk drop the shareholder protections that constrained him at Tesla, so Tesla holders would give up voting rights and buy into a precarious valuation.
“But you also have to remember that the currency is gonna be the SpaceX shares... if SpaceX stock falls by 20% the next day, then you're not actually getting a premium.”at 20:44
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish
SpaceX's $2 trillion valuation is inflated by a tiny float and bank research, so it is not real.
Elson calls the SpaceX valuation 'basically bullshit' because the float is only about 15-20%, versus near 100% for Nvidia and Microsoft. He says a small float means no genuine price discovery and makes the price easier to manipulate by large holders. He says banks inflate price targets, such as Raymond James's $10T target, to win underwriting for coming debt and equity offerings. He points to the SEC removing the rule that limited this conflict. He describes SpaceX's pitch as a sequence of narratives: orbital data centers, asteroid mining, Mars colonies.
“I think the SpaceX valuation is basically bullshit. And the reason it's bullshit is because the float is still incredibly small. It's still around 15 to 20%.”at 21:06
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesBullish
SpaceX could get fast-tracked into the S&P 500 through the Tesla deal, forcing index buying.
Elson reads S&P's bylaw exception for non-eligible companies that acquire index constituents and pay in stock. He says the Tesla deal would fit that exception. Once SpaceX is in the index, index funds would have to buy, which would push the price up further. He hedges that this is conspiratorial and he is open to being wrong.
“In other words, there is an exception to the rule... So I could see this turning into the grand circus act of Elon's going to acquire this company, and that way SpaceX is included in the index.”at 33:51
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
AI data-centre IPOs are performing badly, with one falling over 30% on its first day
Elson points to several AI data-centre IPOs. One was cancelled, another was delayed, and a recently listed data-centre company fell more than 30% on day one. He calls this a canary in the coal mine for AI data-centre companies going public, arguing they do not do well after listing. He links it to the wider pullback in data-centre listings since September.
“which is another data center company, they went public, and immediately the stock just craters more than 30% on day one, which kind of is a canary in the coal mine for what happens when AI data center companies go public. They don't do very well.”at 51:51
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
Credit markets are souring on AI, with record CDS spreads on major AI names like Oracle
Elson says credit default swap spreads are widening every day and hitting record highs on some of the biggest AI names, Oracle among them. He reads this as credit investors growing wary of AI borrowers, and he cites Nvidia and CoreWeave hitting record highs alongside it. He treats the widening as a sign that default risk is being priced, notably for CoreWeave.
“We're seeing that the credit markets are souring on AI. We're watching credit default swap spreads exploding every day, and they're hitting record highs on some of the very big AI names like Oracle.”at 51:54
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
The AI bubble is real but priced into public markets, so a crash is unlikely until hyperscalers are at extreme multiples
Elson says the AI bubble is real and is infecting private markets, but public investors have already priced the risk. Nvidia's forward multiple has halved, Nebius is down 31% and CoreWeave 52% over the past month, Oracle is down 15%, Micron 18%, and the semiconductor ETF 15%. He reads these moves as the market discounting the sustainability of profits. He would not expect a crash until the hyperscalers trade at 50, 60 or 70 times earnings, and he thinks investors are pricing the stocks that matter sensibly.
“all of that anxiety, all of that risk, I think is being priced in.”at 59:27
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
The AI bubble is unpriced in private markets, and AI startup funding is getting harder to raise
Elson argues that VCs love the technology and the founders and do not care about $1.5T or $2T valuations, so private AI pricing ignores the risk. He expects Anthropic and OpenAI to face much more discerning investors once they go public, which will be a rude awakening. Meta's 10-Q warned that raising capital had become an increasingly challenging environment, and founders he knows say the vibes have shifted. A billion-dollar round was easy a month ago but is not now, and capital is more hesitant even if not drying up.
“The only place where I think that the bubble is not being acknowledged and is not being properly priced is in the private markets.”at 1:01:32
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI chips are overbought and idle, as data-centre delays leave depreciating GPUs and cut future orders
Elson cites reporting that Amazon is spending billions a month on Nvidia racks it cannot install, so they sit in warehouses. Eight data-centre listings have been pulled, postponed, or repriced since September. He says the hyperscalers overbought because data centres, power generation, transformers and grid connections take far longer to build than expected. The chips are depreciating meanwhile, so he expects the next GPU order to be significantly lower and data-centre builders to struggle to make profits. Free cash flow at Amazon, Google and Meta is negative, and whether the spending earns a return is an open question.
“They ran into this snag, which is that it's actually very, very difficult to get data centers online as quickly as they had hoped. And so now they have all of these chips that are depreciating.”at 1:07:46
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave and other neoclouds locked in high-rate debt and will see a handful go bankrupt
Elson argues neoclouds such as CoreWeave borrowed heavily at very high interest rates to build data centres. Those data centres are running behind schedule and the chips are sitting idle, so the debt is not being serviced by revenue on time. He expects a handful of these companies to go bankrupt, the way railroad companies with mismatched durations did in the 1870s. He points to CoreWeave's 52% drop over the past month and says the market is already pricing this in.
“They also have locked in these very, very high rates because they've been taking on debt companies like CoreWeave, like basically all of the neo clouds. And, yeah, it's gonna be the same thing. It's gonna be a handful of companies like them going out of business.”at 1:08:14
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
NVIDIAUncertain
Nvidia looks dislocated and sentiment will hurt it, but Elson is unsure on fundamentals
Nvidia's forward earnings multiple has been roughly halved over the past year. Its earnings have grown faster than its stock, so investors are discounting future profits for sustainability risk. Elson says the stock feels dislocated and he expects a large slowdown in the AI cycle that will keep hurting sentiment toward Nvidia. He is unsure about the fundamentals, though, and says he is stuck on the stock. The chips sitting idle and the likely smaller next GPU order are also part of his caution.
“It does feel a little bit dislocated, but I don't see how we don't see a massive slowdown in the AI cycle, and I don't see how the sentiment wouldn't continue to hurt NVIDIA.”at 1:10:23
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
Meta PlatformsUncertain
Meta's AI capex is outrunning its cash flow, pushing it toward equity and debt raises
Ed reads the planned share issuance as partly a need to raise money for capex. He says Meta plans to spend a very large amount, is running out of cash flow, and does not want to keep raising debt. He also reads the filing as a sign that the company may struggle, though he says it is both a control move and a capital-raising need. He calls the capex spending a little crazy even though the underlying businesses are strong.
“They're going to spend this amount of money, and they're running out of cash flows. And they don't wanna keep raising debt.”at 1:13:03
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Meta is the best AI play; trades at a huge discount to private Anthropic
Ed bought Meta this year and says his position is up. He argues Meta is competing neck and neck with Anthropic while being one of the most profitable businesses in the world. Ad growth shows up in the numbers: impressions and engagement are growing double digits, price per ad is rising, and better targeting earns higher CPMs. He says that if the recommendation algorithm's strength comes from AI and machine learning, the returns are already visible in Meta's earnings. He calls the gap between a roughly $1.6 trillion public market cap and Anthropic's reported $2 trillion private valuation a clear dislocation between private and public markets. The main drawback he sees is very heavy capex spending.
“I hate to admit it. It's Mark Zuckerberg and Meta right now. I think I agree.”at 1:20:36
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesUncertain
SpaceX will join the S&P 500 by acquiring Tesla, a backdoor into portfolios
Ed offers a hot take that SpaceX will join the S&P 500 even though it does not clearly qualify. His mechanism is that SpaceX will acquire Tesla, and that deal will become its shortcut into index portfolios. He says he hopes it does not happen but thinks it will. He admits he does not know if it will actually happen.
“I think that SpaceX is gonna join the S and P not because it actually qualifies for joining the S and P, but because it's going to take the backdoor option of acquiring Tesla”at 1:20:54
Prof G Markets: The $3.5T Bailout: Elon's Plan To Merge Tesla And SpaceX ·
TeslaBearish
Tesla's roughly 300x earnings multiple requires robotaxis and robots to explode; he is skeptical.
Tesla trades at more than 300 times earnings, against about 17 times for the rest of the auto industry. Improving margins and execution in a declining auto business does not justify that. To support the valuation, the company needs an enormous new business to explode, such as robotaxis and humanoid robots, and he has not seen evidence yet of real markets for either. He says he is skeptical of the stock.
“trading at more than 300 times earnings, you have the rest of the industry trading at around 17 times earnings... I'm skeptical of of this stock.”at 6:12
NetflixBearish
Traditional streaming is borderline uninvestable because YouTube's algorithmic user-generated model is winning.
Netflix's revenue growth slowed to 12%, from about 14% and then 16% in the two prior quarters. YouTube now holds almost 15% of total US TV viewing time, the largest share, while Netflix has under 8%, less than half of YouTube's. YouTube wins because it is an algorithmic, user-generated platform, not because of better creative or a bigger budget. Against YouTube, TikTok and Instagram, the model of spending billions on productions that may not resonate is fundamentally flawed.
“That is why traditional streaming, in my view, is borderline uninvestable. Because in a world where YouTube and TikTok and Instagram exist, the business model of spending billions of dollars on production costs... is fundamentally flawed.”at 34:04
AI infrastructure & data centers
Chip-buying mismatch is more likely caused by data center build-out delays than deliberate Nvidia pressure.
Elson accepts that there is a mismatch between chip purchases and data center construction, and that chips are piling up in warehouses. He thinks the more plausible explanation is supply-side: data center construction is being massively delayed, and builders underestimated how difficult and expensive it would be to build. Political backlash, such as local communities opposing projects, could be a real problem for the AI build-out. In this view, hyperscalers bought chips expecting data centers to come online within months, then learned they wouldn't. He compares it to the railroad overbuild: too much track was laid, and it is now sitting unused. He is less convinced that Jensen Huang is deliberately forcing early orders.
“It does appear that data center construction is being massively delayed.”at 11:33
Prof G Markets: Is Nvidia Selling More Chips Than Anyone Can Use? ·
21 older views from Ed Elson are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- Prof G Markets · 8 episodes
- The Compound and Friends · 1 episode
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