Company · Updated
What podcasters are saying about OpenAI
Summary
In the past 30 days, 28 speakers on 17 finance podcasts discussed OpenAI in 41 views. Going by each speaker's latest call, 13 are bearish and 11 are bullish. Chorus has followed OpenAI since September 22, 2026: 42 views from 29 speakers on 18 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Steve Eisman · 4
- Jason Lemkin · 3
- Gary Marcus · 3
- Ed Zitron · 3
- Chamath Palihapitiya · 2
- Arthur Hayes · 2
- George Noble · 2
- Ed Elson · 2
- Scott Galloway · 1
- Gary Cohn · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Scott Galloway · NYU Stern School of BusinessBearish
OpenAI's momentum is fading as Anthropic gains; Galloway is more worried about ChatGPT.
When asked which of OpenAI or Anthropic has the stronger moat, Galloway says that in software moats are intellectual property, human capital and culture, and that he is more worried about ChatGPT. He argues the momentum is very much with Anthropic and slightly against ChatGPT. Josh agrees that Anthropic's enterprise business is further along and less price-sensitive.
“Well, the momentum right now is very much for Anthropic and slightly against ChatGPT.”at 30:41
Prof G Markets: Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·
Steve Eisman · The Real Eisman PlaybookBearish
OpenAI's business model has no moat, and the AI chain depends on its health.
Eisman says the whole AI chain, from Nvidia to hyperscalers, depends on the health of Anthropic and OpenAI at this point. He is quite convinced their business models have no moats, which makes the chain fragile. Andrew Ross Sorkin relays that Eisman has heard of a possible Q3 slowdown and discounts to keep selling.
“the whole chain depends upon the health of Anthropic and OpenAI, at least at this point. And they have business models that I am quite convinced have no moats.”at 24:11
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Gary Cohn · IBMBearish
OpenAI looks like a commodity business with no lasting moat, facing price competition.
Cohn says frontier labs are in a highly competitive, commodity-like business where no one keeps an edge for long, since rivals' models learn from and catch up to each other. Historically commodity businesses earn poor returns and compete on price. Open-weight models are more cost-efficient and let users protect data, and more data centers add competition, so labs are racing to lock in capacity and term contracts.
“They're in a highly competitive business. To me, they look like they're in a commodity business. No one really has a competitive advantage for more than, I don't know, seven days.”at 25:13
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Jason Lemkin · SaaStrBearish
OpenAI's governance turmoil and missteps let Anthropic take a lead in coding; OpenAI's IPO may be slightly worse.
He says OpenAI, despite being a larger company, let Anthropic control part of the market for roughly five years or ten years in AI time. He points to the CEO drama and the nonprofit-to-profit fight as costly distractions. He also says OpenAI's IPO will probably be slightly worse than Anthropic's, as it is less capital efficient and slightly slower.
“despite startup doing better than them, they basically let Anthropic control part of the market for almost a which is like five years or ten years in AI time, right?”at 14:09
20VC: 20VC: Anthropic Files S1 Ahead of $2TRN IPO | Instinct's Rumoured $30 Billion Fundraise | Microsoft Laysoff 27,000 While Meta Taps Equity Markets for $95 Billion Capex Spending Spree ·
Jason Lemkin · SaaStrBullish
OpenAI at $1.25T is mispriced; a 20%-of-fund bet offers a path to a $10T outcome.
He sees a dislocation: the market is misreading OpenAI as struggling when the numbers show otherwise. Anthropic is on fire, SpaceX has done well, and the models are competitive, with OpenAI having closed its competitive gaps. He compares it to the Anthropic round at about $183 billion, which was a dislocation that made money. He says both OpenAI and Anthropic can become $10-20 trillion companies. A 20% position at $1.25 trillion would return the fund even at a $10 trillion outcome, and worst case he doubles his money. Unlike priced-to-perfection rounds such as Inflection or Instinct, OpenAI is not priced to perfection.
“And I think we should put 20% of the fund into OpenAI at the $1,250,000,000,000 round. Think that it is mispriced.”at 45:50
20VC: 20VC: Anthropic Files S1 Ahead of $2TRN IPO | Instinct's Rumoured $30 Billion Fundraise | Microsoft Laysoff 27,000 While Meta Taps Equity Markets for $95 Billion Capex Spending Spree ·
Rory O'Driscoll · Scale Venture PartnersBullish
OpenAI's Codex has reached parity with Claude Code; markets are too superficial to see it.
Every coding team his firm works with has switched from Claude Code to Codex in the last three to six months, so OpenAI has achieved parity in the product that matters. He says the quality gap has closed significantly from the prior generation, but the markets have not noticed. That is why he argues for putting 20% of the fund into OpenAI, since nothing smaller would be enough.
“I know every coding team that we work with has switched from [Claude] Code to [Codex] in the last three to six months... They've achieved parity... The markets are too are are too superficial to see it.”at 48:06
20VC: 20VC: Anthropic Files S1 Ahead of $2TRN IPO | Instinct's Rumoured $30 Billion Fundraise | Microsoft Laysoff 27,000 While Meta Taps Equity Markets for $95 Billion Capex Spending Spree ·
Nick Grous · ARK InvestUncertain
OpenAI faces a dilemma: its consumer user base versus enterprise monetization.
Nick calls OpenAI the most interesting company in this dynamic because it already has a billion-plus user base on the consumer side and the enterprise monetization is already there. He asks how it can serve consumers and compete with rivals willing to spend hundreds of billions on consumer products while expecting losses. He does not say which path wins.
“the company that's the most interesting given this dynamic is OpenAI, because they already have this huge... billion plus user install base on the consumer side. But... the monetization on the enterprise side is there.”at 16:52
ARK Invest (FYI podcast, In the Know video): Anthropic’s S-1, Meta’s $90B, And Elon’s Warning Call | The Brainstorm 155 ·
Chamath Palihapitiya · Social CapitalBullish
OpenAI will do well, but its consumer compute costs are an albatross; ads look promising.
Chamath calls OpenAI and Anthropic extraordinary companies that will both do well and matter for the next decade. He credits OpenAI's push into enterprise and says ChatGPT built the brand that made AI synonymous with GPT. He says OpenAI carries an albatross in the cost of serving compute to consumers. He thinks its advertising model looks extremely promising as the best way to monetize that, but it still needs to play out.
“They have done a good job, Sam, Sarah, and team into pushing into the enterprise... That said, they do have a little bit of an albatross with the cost to carry that compute for the consumers.”at 21:55
Lyn Alden · Lyn Alden Investment StrategyBearish
OpenAI's trillion-plus valuation is hard to justify while it is unprofitable and barely ahead of copiers.
Alden says a lot of venture capital went into the frontier model companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic. She argues that a trillion-plus or $2 trillion valuation is very hard to justify for a company that is aggressively unprofitable and only months ahead of closest copiers. Open-weight models are chasing them closely. She expects a large drawdown at certain points, while still seeing the broader buildout as having room to run.
“It's very hard to justify a trillion or $2,000,000,000,000 valuation when you're aggressively unprofitable and you're only months ahead of your closest copiers.”at 14:50
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Arthur Hayes · Flop LabsBearish
OpenAI will likely struggle to pay non-cancelable compute contracts, a key AI bust signpost.
Hayes names Anthropic or OpenAI missing a payment, or signalling trouble paying for the data compute deals they have signed, as the milestone that will mark the AI bubble cracking, around late 2027. He says OpenAI has signed non-cancelable compute contracts it says it wants to buy. He argues OpenAI does not make money and is going public to access equity markets, and will likely need junk-rated debt to finance compute purchases. If revenue is insufficient and rates are high, it cannot finance itself, which he sees as the signal that the biggest AI compute buyers cannot pay for the build-out.
“Anthropic or OpenAI misses a payment or signals are going to have trouble paying these data compute deals that they've signed. So they have these non cancelable contracts for all this compute that they say they want to buy.”at 2:16
Wealthion: Arthur Hayes: Stocks Peak in 2027 Before the AI Bubble Bursts ·
Arthur Hayes · Flop LabsBearish
OpenAI will face a cash-funding crunch for compute purchases in late 2027, triggering an AI bust.
Hayes argues that late 2027 is when it becomes put-up-or-shut-up time for Anthropic and OpenAI, because they must send cash to buy the compute they have committed to. He presents this as his working mental model of how an AI bust unfolds, rather than a certainty, and says he is not trading on it and could be very wrong on timing.
“it's put up or shut up time for Anthropic and OpenAI in terms of having to send cash to buy this compute. That's my working mental model, but I'm not trading based on that.”at 37:14
Wealthion: Arthur Hayes: Stocks Peak in 2027 Before the AI Bubble Bursts ·
Dan Primack · AxiosUncertain
Anthropic's IPO trading multiple will directly shape OpenAI's valuation when it goes public.
Primack calls Anthropic and OpenAI essentially the same company, making Anthropic the most direct comparison. He expects whatever Anthropic trades at, including on a multiples basis, to affect OpenAI's IPO valuation, unless some major innovation or change happens in between. SpaceX is a looser comparison. He sees the read-through as direct but conditional on what happens to Anthropic.
“whatever Anthropic is trading at, even from multiples perspective, is going to impact what happens to OpenAI if and when it goes public, unless there's some major innovation or change in the interim.”at 22:41
Big Technology Podcast: Emergency Pod: Anthropic's S-1 IPO Filing — With Dan Primack ·
Steve Hou · Silicon DataBearish
OpenAI's upcoming IPO and relatively high valuation face questions from cheaper-model pressure.
Steve argues that the shift toward cheaper, good-enough models and slowing growth at the frontier labs will create questions around the upcoming IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI. He says the valuations, roughly $1.5-2tn, look relatively high for non-public companies whose growth may not match earlier expectations. This is a hedged view, since he says he suspects the pressure will surface and the economics of who captures rent from frontier models remain open.
“I suspect this is going to create some questions surrounding their upcoming IPOs and... Relatively high valuations.”at 12:53
Merryn Talks Money: Can the AI Boom Survive a Margin Squeeze? ·
Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyBearish
OpenAI missing its $1.4T target suggests strategic backers have tapped out.
Kantrowitz says a round below the $1.4 trillion target suggests companies have invested all they can in OpenAI. The lead investors were from the UAE, and Microsoft and Nvidia did not take part, which he reads as those companies having made their play. He cites a Financial Times report that investors show indigestion, after previously clamoring for OpenAI stock that now lands with a thud. He concludes there is a limit to how much more money the company can raise privately before its IPO.
“the fact that they didn't raise at their target does suggest that companies have basically invested all they can into OpenAI.”at 28:08
George Noble · Noble Capital AdvisorsBearish
OpenAI's annualised run-rate revenue claims are misleading and should be dismissed.
OpenAI and Anthropic claim a $50bn revenue run-rate, which is simply the latest week's revenue annualised. He says that is meaningless and that it preys on ill-informed investors. Using Jack Farley's example, a quarter's revenue annualised says nothing about sustainable value. He dismisses such proclamations out of hand as a red flag for valuations.
“Anthropic or OpenAI and they say, oh, well, you know, we realized a run rate of revenue of $50,000,000,000. ... It should be illegal to say that because you're preying on ill informed investors.”at 38:53
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Andy Jassy · AmazonBullish
OpenAI will be one of the most successful AI companies long term; Amazon invested to bring it onto AWS.
Jassy says Amazon's investment in OpenAI reflects the strength of the company's team, technology, and applications, and Amazon's belief that OpenAI will be one of the most successful AI companies over the long term. The investment also addressed customer demand: many AWS customers wanted OpenAI but couldn't use it on AWS because of prior business arrangements. Over months of conversations, the companies built a unique product, a stateful runtime environment on Bedrock, which Jassy believes is how all agents will be built, since agents need state.
“We built a unique product together in this stateful runtime environment, which is how I think all agents are gonna be built moving forward.”at 36:36
a16z Podcast: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy on Why Amazon Is Investing $220 Billion in AI ·
Jordi Visser · Visser LabsBullish
OpenAI's revenue run-rate will safely reach roughly $200–300 billion.
Visser says OpenAI will safely reach $200 to $300 billion in revenue, which together with Anthropic's expected $300 to $400 billion would mean $600 to $700 billion from the two companies. He argues this is driven by real adoption of AI models, and that continued progress in the models should keep it going. He notes that concerns about scaling laws stalling progress have already faded.
“Do I think OpenAI will be 200 to 300 safely? Yes.”at 55:26
The Julia La Roche Show: #423 Jordi Visser: Why the AI Bears Are Wrong — and the One Asset He’d Bet On Right Now ·
Jason Lemkin · SaaStrBullish
OpenAI models gain share because they deliver similar quality at 30-40% lower cost, as Replit's routing shows.
Jason explains that Replit made OpenAI its default model because OpenAI's models are cheaper for roughly the same output quality. Replit's own routing layer makes this switch. Teams like Replit, Lovable and Base44 have a strong incentive to get the quality-price balance right. Their routing shows that quality is roughly peer level and the price is 30-40% better. Jason notes this could change, since Replit's choices may shift again.
“the quality is sufficiently peer level here. And the price is 30 to 40% better for us today.”at 24:04
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George Noble · Noble Capital AdvisorsBearish
OpenAI burns cash and depends on ever-higher private funding; its IPO has slipped to 2027.
Noble calls OpenAI and Anthropic cash incinerating machines. The sector has kept working only by raising money at ever higher prices, with each funding round at 50 to 70% higher valuations, and there is no cash flow. He cites OpenAI postponing its IPO to 2027 as evidence that appreciation for AI assets is slowing. He says the market is reacting to slower growth, and that slower growth means less money into the sector and lower valuations.
“[Both of them, OpenAI and Anthropic, are] cash incinerating machines, all right? The only way this game kept working so far is to keep raising money at ever higher prices.”at 12:27
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Rob Arnott · Research AffiliatesBearish
OpenAI's ChatGPT lead was matched by DeepSeek within two years, so its moat is weak.
Arnott says OpenAI thought it had a moat around ChatGPT. Only about two years after launch, DeepSeek produced something as powerful as ChatGPT's then-cutting-edge version, at about one-hundredth of the investment. In his view, moats in AI are fragile, which weakens OpenAI's position.
“OpenAI thought it had a moat around ChatGPT, and yet it was only two years after they introduced ChatGPT that DeepSeek came along and said, oh, we've got something as powerful as your current cutting edge ChatGPT version.”at 52:36
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Brad Gerstner · Altimeter CapitalBullish
OpenAI will very likely go public because it needs cheap capital, at lower multiples than past mega IPOs.
Gerstner says a public listing is highly probable. He argues that the race to superintelligence is a recursive, capital-intensive battle, so OpenAI will need access to cheap public capital. He also argues it is good for America when retail shareholders can own these companies. He points out that the IPO multiples for these companies are lower than those of Facebook, Google and SpaceX at their listings, so he sees a wall of worry already built in.
“I would say, from my perspective, it's highly probable they go public.”at 39:19
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Musk Floats Mega-Merger, United CEO on Airfares & Fuel 10/21/26 ·
Ed Elson · Prof G MediaBearish
OpenAI, at a $1.5T-plus valuation with no near-term profits, is most exposed if the AI trade sours
Ed argues the AI bubble sits mostly in private markets. He points to OpenAI and Anthropic seeking very large valuations while being significantly exposed to the downside if the AI trade goes wrong. He says these companies are burning billions of dollars and are not on a near-term path to profitability. Yet they are being treated as if the risks do not exist, unlike public names such as Nvidia.
“Anthropic OpenAI asking for... valuation. Like, it seems like those companies are significantly exposed to the downsides of the AI trade going wrong more so than a lot of the names that we're that we're talking about”at 7:47
Dylan Field · FigmaBullish
OpenAI's release of 700+ math papers on famous problems is a major demonstration of AI capability.
Field cites OpenAI's release of over 700 papers covering very famous unsolved math problems as the event that hit home most for him. He says it was 'a show of something' and calls it the greatest day of discovery in human history, which he calls factually accurate. He pairs the excitement with a sense that something was lost, so the view is enthusiastic about the capability but mixed on its broader effects. No market or financial implication is stated.
“nothing hit home for me more than the math drop last night from OpenAI of 700 plus papers on all sorts of very famous problems. That that was a show of something.”at 38:32
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Danny Moses · Moses VenturesUncertain
OpenAI must show it can make a profit; its survival is uncertain.
Danny says he has no idea whether OpenAI will make it. He wants to see the math on both enterprise and consumer demand, along with token pricing and the debt that has been raised. He says that at some point OpenAI needs to show it can make a profit, and he has not seen the math that proves it.
“I have no idea if OpenAI is gonna make it or not. ... At some point you're gonna need to show that you can make money, a profit.”at 15:49
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Ben Horowitz · Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)Bullish
OpenAI's IPO will be fine; investor demand for the offering is not a concern.
Horowitz applies the same view to OpenAI as to Anthropic. He thinks the OpenAI IPO will be fine and that investors will be keen to own it. He reasons that OpenAI and Anthropic threaten almost everything in a public-market portfolio, so there is little else to hold that offers equivalent AI exposure. He is not worried about demand for either offering. He does not give a price target.
“I'm not worried at all about the demand for those IPOs. So you have to own those”at 28:06
All-In Podcast: CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer ·
David Sacks · Craft VenturesBullish
OpenAI and Anthropic dominate compute and revenue, forming a duopoly in frontier capability.
Sacks cites SemiAnalysis that Anthropic and OpenAI will take about 60% of all new compute stood up worldwide over the next year, making them the two main offtakers. Measured by revenue and market share, they are the only two generating significant model revenue, so it is a duopoly. He also calls them a duopoly on frontier capability, though Meta, Google and xAI are getting close and reportedly have models a generation or two behind.
“According to [SemiAnalysis], Anthropic and OpenAI are taking 60% of all the compute that's expected to be stood up in the entire world over the next year.”at 59:48
All-In Podcast: CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer ·
Steve Eisman · The Real Eisman PlaybookBearish
OpenAI's annualized revenue claims look unreliable; a $20B drop from its prior figure is a bad sign.
The Financial Times reported that OpenAI claims $50B in annualized revenue as of the end of September. Eisman says he cannot tell what that means, since it could be one day times 365, one week times 52 or one month times 12. He sees the metric as designed to help raise money. Previously OpenAI had claimed $70B in annualized revenue, so $20B has disappeared, which he calls not a good sign.
“The most important part of the story was that previously OpenAI had claimed that it had $70,000,000,000 in annualized revenue. I have no idea how 20,000,000,000 evaporated but that is not a good sign.”at 7:19
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Steve Eisman · The Real Eisman PlaybookBearish
OpenAI's reported annualized revenue figures are unreliable, since $70B dropped to $50B in a month.
OpenAI said its annualized revenue at the end of September was $50B, after saying a month earlier it was $70B. Eisman asks where the $20B went and says the figures are not apples to apples. He also says he has no idea what annualized revenue means and that nobody does. He treats the reporting as unreliable and a sign of weakness.
“OpenAI came out and said that their annualized revenue at the end of September was 50,000,000,000. A month ago, they said 70. What happened to 20? Where'd the 20 go? Disappeared.”at 16:28
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Steve Eisman · The Real Eisman PlaybookBearish
OpenAI may be manufacturing a crisis to win regulation it can shape into a duopoly with Anthropic.
Eisman says open-weight models are taking market share from closed labs, so OpenAI and Anthropic should be nervous. He suggests that if they create enough hysteria, they can get regulation and then manipulate it to foster a duopoly. He calls this a conspiracy theory at first, but later calls it his thesis and says Marcus agrees. Marcus says it is almost their job to think about this. The reasoning rests on incentives and the open-weight competitive threat, not on direct evidence of a plan.
“So if I'm anthropic and open AI, I'm nervous... So maybe if I create enough hysteria, I can create regulation, and then I can manipulate the regulation so that I can basically foster a duopoly.”at 36:46
The Real Eisman Playbook: Gary Marcus on AI Doomsday Fears, Hacking, & the Fight for Control | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 79 ·
Gary Marcus · New York University (professor emeritus)Bearish
Sam Altman's regulatory preferences are self-serving, ranking no rules first and rules that block rivals last.
Marcus says Altman is always looking for an angle on regulation. He describes Altman's preferences in order: no regulation first, then very weak regulation that does not impair OpenAI, and last regulation that cuts the ladder so no one else can compete. He points to OpenAI's lobbying against actual or watered-down rules as evidence. He concludes that Altman's regulatory positions serve OpenAI's commercial interests.
“His top choice is no regulation. His second choice is very weak regulation that doesn't impair him. And his third choice is regulation that cuts the ladder so no one else can compete with him.”at 37:42
The Real Eisman Playbook: Gary Marcus on AI Doomsday Fears, Hacking, & the Fight for Control | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 79 ·
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