Speaker · Updated
Steve Eisman: latest market views
The Real Eisman Playbook
Summary
Steve Eisman is an investor and podcast host, and a former senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, best known for shorting subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis, as depicted in 'The Big Short'.
Chorus has 87 views from Steve Eisman across 10 episodes on 4 shows since October 2, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Citigroup; bearish on Anthropic, OpenAI, CoreWeave and Blackstone.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AnthropicBearish ·
- OpenAIBearish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- BlackstoneBearish ·
- ComcastBearish ·
- Meta PlatformsBearish ·
- NetflixBearish ·
- NVRBearish ·
- Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish ·
- TeslaBearish ·
- CitigroupBullish ·
- Wells Fargo & CompanyBearish ·
- OracleBearish ·
- Glasshouse BrandsBearish ·
- PayPal HoldingsBearish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's business model has no moat, and the AI chain depends on its health.
Eisman argues the AI chain, from chips to hyperscalers, depends on Anthropic and OpenAI being healthy, and he is convinced their models lack moats. Sorkin relays that Eisman is worried about reported slowdowns and discounting at Anthropic ahead of Q3 numbers, which is why he is wary of the broader market.
“the whole chain depends upon the health of Anthropic and OpenAI, at least at this point. And they have business models that I am quite convinced have no moats.”at 24:11
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
OpenAIBearish
OpenAI's business model has no moat, and the AI chain depends on its health.
Eisman says the whole AI chain, from Nvidia to hyperscalers, depends on the health of Anthropic and OpenAI at this point. He is quite convinced their business models have no moats, which makes the chain fragile. Andrew Ross Sorkin relays that Eisman has heard of a possible Q3 slowdown and discounts to keep selling.
“the whole chain depends upon the health of Anthropic and OpenAI, at least at this point. And they have business models that I am quite convinced have no moats.”at 24:11
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Chinese open-weight models are taking AI market share as buyers become more cost-conscious.
Eisman says that after the first half of 2026, customers became much more cost-conscious and the end of token maxing followed. Chinese open-weight models took more market share in that period. He links this to the Q3 revenue slowdown at Anthropic and to the price pressure that might have forced its reported 50% price cut.
“people got a lot more cost conscious. The Chinese open weight models took more market share.”at 5:04
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's post-token-maxing revenue growth and revenue-to-compute ratio both fell sharply in Q3.
Eisman rebuilt the quarterly series from the S-1 and reports on Q3 revenue. Sequential revenue growth fell from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3. Revenue divided by compute infrastructure expense fell from 2.08x to 1.7x, after rising from 0.69x in Q4 2025 to 1.4x in Q1 and 2.08x in Q2. He reads this as the end of the 'token maxing' surge, when enterprises ordered engineers to use AI without regard to cost. He says the Q3 slowdown shows the peak effect has reversed and that the S-1 is backward-looking, since it only runs through Q2 and omits Q3. He also cites an unverified report that Anthropic cut prices by about 50% in October to win share.
“Third quarter, token maxing is over, sequential revenue growth goes from 147% to 45%, and the revenue divided by compute goes from 2.08 to 1.7. That tells you something.”at 6:21
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Anthropic's roughly $800B of compute commitments will push its expenses up sharply.
Eisman notes that the S-1 lists future capital commitments of $800B to $900B, depending on what is included. He says the company's expenses will rise once it commits to that spending, though he does not know by how much because he is not the CFO. He cites a report that capex could reach $80B to $100B next year, and he is unsure how it will be accounted for. He calls the commitments a concern, but hedges by saying 'I don't know if the word is concerning'.
“when you commit to $800,000,000,000 your expenses are going up.”at 8:44
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
Anthropic has no moat; it can only win share through price, which is a dangerous franchise.
Eisman argues that Anthropic's franchise has no moat. If the reported 50% price cut is true, it shows that price is the only lever for gaining share. He says a business that commits to about $800B of compute while its franchise rests entirely on price is dangerous. He hedges that he has not confirmed the price cut, but says that if it is true it reinforces the no-moat thesis. Chinese open-weight models are taking share, which adds to the pricing pressure.
“it just seems, you know, that there are no moats around this business... if it's the case that they actually did cut prices by 50%, that would reinforce the concept that there are no moats and that the only way you're gonna gain share is price.”at 11:32
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
AnthropicNeutral
Anthropic's lack of shareholder rights is disclosed and does not by itself decide investability.
Eisman calls the S-1 governance structure ridiculous and says shareholders have no rights. He then says governance does not determine whether the stock is investable. He points to Meta, which has the same kind of criticism but has still performed very well as a stock. He describes the situation as founder worship in tech, which investors can accept or reject. He sees it as a choice for each investor, not a deal-breaker.
“[Does it say something about whether it's investable?] I don't think so. We could make the same criticism of Meta, and, you know, Meta as a stock generally has done very, very well.”at 13:14
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave's 15% cost of debt is prohibitive for building AI data centers; the business is at risk.
Eisman argues that CoreWeave's business model is simple: it raises debt and builds AI data centers. A 15% borrowing cost is, in his view, prohibitive for that model. He says he cannot prove it, but if the cost of debt gets worse, the company is effectively out of business. He notes that NVIDIA could backstop the company, which he sees as possible but not assured. He suggests watching the debt price as the key indicator.
“At 15%, I think, although I can't prove it, I think it's prohibitive for them to raise debt at 15% and build AI data centers.”at 15:23
Prof G Markets: Why Steve Eisman Isn't Buying Anthropic's IPO ·
French sovereign bonds are in trouble: debt at 120% of GDP and spreads widest since 2011.
France's debt is 120% of GDP, which Eisman says is too high. This week the premium on French 10-year bonds over Germany rose 16 basis points to 175, the highest since 2011, when Europe had a sovereign bond crisis. He says the riots are not the whole story. Unlike the US, France has no reserve-currency advantage, and no one has to own French sovereign bonds.
“French sovereign bonds are in big trouble and it's not just because of the riots. France's debt to GDP is at 120% and that in my view is too high.”at 2:58
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
US debt at 120% of GDP is safer than France's, given dollar reserve status and Treasury demand.
Eisman acknowledges that US debt is also 120% of GDP and that lower debt would be better. He argues the US has advantages France lacks. The dollar is the reserve currency of the global financial system, and that system functions on Treasuries. Many large investors worldwide must own Treasuries, which creates structural demand that France's bonds do not have.
“But The US has advantages [that] France does not. The dollar is the reserve currency of the world and the entire global financial system, and I can't emphasize this enough, functions on treasuries. That means that many large investors all over the world must own treasuries.”at 3:36
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave's rising debt yield means AI data center economics no longer work.
CoreWeave's cost of debt climbed from 9% to 15%. Eisman argues that when a neocloud company with a weak balance sheet raises future debt at 15%, the economics of building AI data centers stop working, so the cost of building them becomes prohibitive for some builders. The debt-market repricing hit the whole AI complex last week and this week and now matters more to the market than earnings. Nebius is in the same weak-balance-sheet position. He says fixed income investors care about math, not stories, so CoreWeave will struggle to fix its bad fixed-income narrative. Eisman notes this could change if AI financing conditions improve.
“The cost of [CoreWeave's] debt climbed from 9% to 15%. ... At a debt cost of 15% I believe the economics of an AI data center don't work.”at 4:11
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
EquifaxUncertain
Equifax's mortgage-scoring exposure is hit by the FHFA attack; results not great but not a disaster.
Equifax is down 19% this year as Bill Pulte, head of FHFA, attacks the mortgage credit scoring system, including FICO and all three credit bureaus. Equifax has the largest share of its business from mortgage scoring. Revenue rose 10% and US mortgage revenue rose 15%. Q4 EPS guidance was 3% below consensus. The stock rose on earnings day because the results were not as bad as expected after a year of declines.
“Equifax has the largest percentage of its business coming from mortgage scoring. I would call Equifax's results not great, but not a disaster.”at 8:06
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
TeslaBearish
Merging Tesla with SpaceX is a very bad idea; the combined company would be too complex.
Musk disclosed that a committee was formed to discuss merging Tesla with SpaceX. Eisman thinks this is a very bad idea because SpaceX is already complicated enough. Tesla would bring an EV business that has lost massive market share to the Chinese, an autonomous vehicle division he calls questionable, and a solar business that is not very good. The combined company would be incredibly complex, difficult to manage, and hard for investors to understand.
“Now I think this is a very bad idea. SpaceX is already complicated enough.”at 10:12
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
Space Exploration TechnologiesBearish
SpaceX's massive capex plans will turn it into a cash drain needing large capital raises.
Eisman calls SpaceX's quarterly results strong, with SI revenue up 161% and profitability turning positive, but he is concerned about capex. Quarterly capex was $29.6 billion, up 185% quarter over quarter. Management signals large further plans, including a $100 billion Starbase Louisiana budget and capex for Grok models and data centers. Starlink, once a cash cow, now faces competition from carriers such as T-Mobile and is becoming a cash drain. Eisman expects SpaceX to need multiple billions in new capital, a large number he cannot yet size. He also says CoreWeave's funding stress shows the environment for raising AI capital has worsened, so SpaceX's cost of capital has risen and could become a major future problem.
“My concerns about SpaceX are not this quarter's results, It's the CAPEX. ... SpaceX is going to have to raise multi billions in capital. How much? I don't know yet but it's a huge number.”at 10:34
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
TeslaBearish
Tesla's flat revenue and unproven autonomous driving make its results poor and the stock a bearish story.
Tesla's total revenue grew 0%. Automotive revenue fell 1% to $20.5 billion, and energy generation and storage fell 16% to $2.9 billion. Services was the one bright spot, up 33%. EPS fell 4% to $0.48. Eisman says the EV business has lost massive market share to Chinese competitors, and the solar business is not very good. He argues the future of Tesla depends on autonomous driving succeeding, and there is no real indication that it is succeeding.
“Total revenues grew 0%. ... The future of Tesla hinges on the success of autonomous driving and I have to say there is no real indication that Tesla is really succeeding here.”at 11:54
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
NetflixBearish
Netflix is going ex-growth as streaming matures and YouTube takes share in newer media.
Netflix's EPS beat slightly, but revenue of 11.8% growth only met expectations. Fourth-quarter revenue and EPS guidance came in below the street. The company is laying off staff and removed its chief content officer and chief film officer. Eisman identifies three problems. Streaming was revolutionary but is now mature. New media has moved beyond films and series into short-form video and podcasts. YouTube has conquered these newer forms, while Netflix has been slow and stubborn.
“Streaming was revolutionary and now it's mature. ... YouTube has conquered these newer aspects of media and Netflix has been slow and stubborn.”at 13:06
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
Starlink is becoming a viable wireless competitor, the 'telepocalypse', pressuring carriers.
Eisman coined the term 'telepocalypse' for SpaceX's Starlink becoming a much more viable competitor to existing wireless carriers. On SpaceX's call, Musk reaffirmed plans for a fourth major mobile operator in the US. Eisman says creating such a carrier would be unbelievably expensive, but no one wants to spoil a good narrative. T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T fell 2% to 6% the day after, even though AT&T's own results were okay.
“The telepocalypse stands for SpaceX's Starlink division becoming a much more viable competitor to existing wireless carriers.”at 15:50
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
Moody'sUncertain
Moody's oligopoly is durable, but rate-driven slowdown in bond issuance is hurting its ratings revenue.
Eisman says he has owned Moody's for a long time because it and S&P hold a powerful oligopoly. He argues the company is not immune to market forces, especially interest rates, because rising rates chill bond issuance. Moody's EPS of $4.14 beat last year's $3.60 but missed the $4.27 estimate. Ratings revenue at Moody's Investors Service fell 1% on slower bond issuance.
“Full disclosure, I've owned the stock for a long time because Moody's and S and P occupy a powerful oligopoly. But that does not mean that they are immune to market forces, especially interest rates.”at 16:42
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
Enterprise AI adoption & AI software
LLMs and agentic AI apps have no moats, so Meta's Muse success is vulnerable.
Meta has momentum from the early success of its agentic AI product Muse. Eisman says he holds the view that LLMs and agentic AI apps have no moats. He argues it will be interesting to see how well Meta does when Muse is challenged, since competitors can replicate such products.
“I am of the view though that LLMs and agentic AI apps have no moats and it will be interesting to see how well Meta does when Muse is challenged.”at 18:02
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
Meta PlatformsBearish
Meta's $825 billion AI infrastructure commitment, with no positive cash flow, is a major negative.
Meta's results were strong: revenue rose 26%, EPS beat, and the average price per ad rose 14%, which suggests its AI products are helping ad revenue. The stock still fell sharply. Eisman's criticisms are that costs rose 68%, and that Meta has agreed to spend about $825 billion on leases and contracts for computing power and AI infrastructure. He calls that a huge commitment from a company that no longer has any positive cash flow. That spending is the negative data point he thinks the market focused on.
“It has agreed to spend about $825,000,000,000 in the future on leases and contracts mostly related to computing power and infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Now that is a huge commitment from a company that no longer has any positive cash flow.”at 18:07
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
IBM's software and consulting face AI disruption, and its 5% growth is paltry.
Eisman argues IBM is no longer an important company. At a $240 billion market cap it is too small to challenge large tech companies, and most people don't care when it reports. It is now mostly a software and tech consulting company, and both divisions run the risk of being disintermediated by AI. IBM beat on revenue and EPS, but revenue grew a paltry 5%.
“It's now mostly a software and tech consulting company and both of these divisions run the risk of being disintermediated by AI.”at 18:54
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
BlackstoneBearish
Higher rates are hurting Blackstone through real estate write-downs and deal curbs despite strong inflows.
Blackstone's EPS fell 13% to $1.32. The positive is inflows of $63 billion, which show investors still want to invest with Blackstone despite negative publicity around private equity and private credit. The negative is that higher rates cause write-downs of real estate property valuations and curb deal making. Eisman sees rates as the main drag on the business.
“On the positive side, inflows were $63,000,000,000 ... But on the negative side, higher rates cause a write down of real estate property valuations and higher rates are curbing deal making.”at 19:25
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
ComcastBearish
Comcast lost 144,000 broadband customers, showing intense competition; stock is down over 20% this year.
Comcast beat on EPS, driven by media, Peacock, and good free cash flow. Eisman says the thing investors care most about is broadband subscribers, and Comcast lost 144,000 of them. That loss means competition remains intense, which is why Comcast is down over 20% this year.
“the thing investors care the most about is broadband subscribers. And here Comcast lost 144,000 customers. Which means that competition remains intense”at 19:45
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
NVRBearish
Even a good homebuilder like NVR cannot withstand higher mortgage rates; EPS and orders missed.
NVR is a very good Mid-Atlantic homebuilder, but even good operators cannot withstand higher mortgage rates. EPS fell 20% to $89.45 and missed consensus. New orders of 4,391 missed the 5,043 consensus.
“It is a very good operator but even good operators cannot withstand higher mortgage rates.”at 20:07
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
Buying a home no longer builds wealth; home prices more likely than not fall for years.
Eisman says mortgage rates above 7% lock in sellers with 3% to 3.5% loans. For a buyer's monthly payment to match the seller's, the price has to be about half the seller's original purchase price, so existing home sales are at multi-decade lows. Insurance, property taxes, and land fees have also risen, so housing is unaffordable even at lower rates. He concludes that the days of buying a home to create wealth are over, and that prices will more likely than not fall in most parts of the country for several years.
“I think the days of people buying a home and creating wealth are over. In fact, I think it is more likely than not that housing prices will go down in most parts of the country for the next several years.”at 21:55
The Real Eisman Playbook: AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap ·
AI debt issuance crowding out Treasuries keeps underlying rates higher for longer.
Eisman expects underlying interest rates to stay higher for longer. His evidence is roughly $500B of AI-related debt issuance this year, and growing. He argues this private-sector borrowing is large enough to crowd out Treasuries, which he says has never happened before at this scale.
“I agree that the level of underlying rates is going to be higher for longer. The fact that 500,000,000,000 of AI issuance is taking place this year And growing. Is crowding out.”at 9:05
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
Housing is the sector to worry about; 7.5% mortgage rates are stopping buyers.
Eisman says the housing sector worries him most. Mortgage rates are about 7.5%, and at that level people are not buying homes. He cites his own experience from a speech, where a young audience member asked whether buying a house is a good idea. His advice was to buy only if the payments are affordable, with no expectation of making money on the purchase.
“one thing that I would be very nervous about right now is just the whole housing sector. ... mortgage rates are seven and a half percent. People are not buying homes at mortgage rates of seven and a half percent. They're just not.”at 9:29
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
NVIDIAUncertain
Nvidia's revenue beat hides concentration risk: 70% of receivables come from five accounts.
Eisman says Nvidia's revenue rose roughly 110%, but the 10-Q showed that about 70% of accounts receivable comes from five customers. He compares this to a software IPO he saw that had only three customers, which an analyst refused to take public. He argues that the AI chain depends heavily on the health of OpenAI and Anthropic, which have no clear financials. He says this concentration is a real risk, though he is not telling people to short the AI trade.
“But the next day you got the 10 Q. And the 10 Q said that 70% of Nvidia's accounts receivable is from five accounts.”at 22:39
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
Private equity faces a long period of trouble because it only works in low rates.
Eisman says the time to monetize private equity investments has stretched from three to four years to around seven, and maybe ten. Few exits are happening. He argues that the business only works in low rates because it is leveraged, and rates keep rising. He also argues that investors moved into private equity to avoid the daily volatility of public markets, but PE is just as volatile. He expects the industry to go through a long period of troubled times.
“I think the private equity business is going to go through a long period of very troubled times.”at 28:17
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
US and France both have ~120% debt-to-GDP and both are politically paralysed about cutting deficits.
Eisman compares the US with France: their debt-to-GDP is roughly the same at about 120%, and both governments are politically unable to cut deficits. He cites Marine Le Pen's proposal to lower the French retirement age from 63 to 60, which would widen the deficit further, and notes French rates are rising. He draws a parallel with the US, where neither side has an appetite to cut spending.
“The debt to GDP in France and The US is roughly the same, about 120. France, like us, is completely... politically paralyzed.”at 38:20
The Real Eisman Playbook: Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80 ·
57 older views from Steve Eisman are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- The Real Eisman Playbook · 7 episodes
- Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) · 1 episode
- Prof G Markets · 1 episode
- The Compound and Friends · 1 episode
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