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What podcasters are saying about US growth & recession risk
Summary
In the past 30 days, 76 speakers on 29 finance podcasts discussed US growth & recession risk in 115 views. Chorus has followed US growth & recession risk since September 23, 2026: 118 views from 78 speakers on 29 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Jeff Snider · 12
- Jim Paulsen · 4
- Kevin Warsh · 3
- Vincent Deluard · 3
- Paul Kedrosky · 3
- Holly Wade · 3
- Steve Eisman · 3
- Wolf Richter · 3
- Eric Basmajian · 2
- Scott Bessent · 2
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Kevin Warsh · Federal Reserve
Capex is broadening beyond tech, so economic strength isn't confined to narrow AI pockets.
Warsh said the data, including since the last meeting, show the capex story is not just robust and strong but broadening. Business investment is likely rising at about a double-digit pace and capital expenditures are at a historically high share of GDP. High-tech investment leads the acceleration, but other categories are broadening too. He argued that claiming strength is confined to narrow pockets is now a much harder story to tell than several quarters ago.
“the CapEx story is not just robust, not just strong, but it is broadening.”at 15:33
The David Lin Report: Fed Split Over Rates: Why Didn't The Fed Hike Today? ·
Kevin Warsh · Federal Reserve
Productivity has been rising for a couple of years, mostly predating AI superintelligence.
Warsh believes productivity has improved, though it cannot be measured precisely. He argues most of that productivity change predates the AI advances the market discusses, such as superintelligence. Productivity has been moving higher for a couple of years, which means higher economic growth. He uses this to argue that faster growth is not necessarily causing inflation or making the Fed's job harder.
“My judgment is we have seen an improvement in productivity. We can't measure it precisely. I think most of that change in productivity precedes everything we're talking about super intelligence.”at 19:39
The David Lin Report: Fed Split Over Rates: Why Didn't The Fed Hike Today? ·
Kevin Warsh · Federal Reserve
Strong growth doesn't mean the economy is overheating or driving inflation.
Warsh said the economy is strong: first-half GDP growth was revised up from 1.8% to 2.4%, and third-quarter growth is likely above 3%, led by healthy consumer spending. The jobless rate is lower than a year ago, payroll growth is above last year's pace, and unemployment insurance claims are at the lowest level in generations. Most colleagues do not judge the economy to be running too hot. Given uncertainty about potential growth and the productivity improvement, higher growth does not in his view mean growth is causing inflation.
“And so economic growth is higher, but that doesn't tell me that economic growth is somehow causing inflation and making our job harder.”at 20:00
The David Lin Report: Fed Split Over Rates: Why Didn't The Fed Hike Today? ·
Josh Brown · Ritholtz Wealth Management
A prolonged two-year bear market is impossible without a recession, because household wealth is tied to stocks.
Josh argues that stock market and economy are now closely linked. Retirement plans, high-income households' 401(k)s and pay tied to recently listed stock all depend on share prices. Because household spending depends on account values, a long bear market would drag the economy into recession, so a two-year bear market without a recession is not possible.
“You can't have a prolonged two year bear market without a recession. It's impossible because everybody's wealth effect and everyone's mentality is based on how much money their accounts are worth.”at 31:02
The Compound and Friends: The Bulls Are Trapped with Alex Altmann ·
Stephanie Link · Hightower Advisors
Strong GDP and low claims make the economy strong enough to support cyclical stocks.
Link cites data released that day: GDP growth of 3.4%, continued very low weekly jobless claims, and core PCE roughly in line with expectations without anything alarming. She says the data was very supportive of cyclical sectors. She also notes the Fed made no change, and that the economy is strong enough to handle the rate outlook she expects.
“I'm very happy the economy, the data we got today was very much supportive of cyclicals with a GDP of 3.4%”at 16:28
Rick Wurster · The Charles Schwab Corporation
US economy and markets are strong, driven by productivity gains and a historic AI investment boom.
Rick says the economy is strong and that is why markets have kept rising despite uncertainty. He points to incredible productivity growth and an AI-driven wave of investment at a level he has never seen in his career. He sees fundamentally a lot of great things happening.
“You're seeing incredible productivity growth. This birth of AI that's driving a lot of incredible level investment, certainly level of investment I've never seen in my career.”at 12:55
Bloomberg Talks: Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster Talks Future of AI ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Near-term US recession risk is low because construction and manufacturing jobs are rising, not falling.
Construction and manufacturing employment have historically been the leading recessionary signal, since they are the interest-rate-sensitive sectors where downturns begin. Right now they are doing well: nonresidential construction is adding jobs, and durable goods manufacturing jobs have risen over the last six to eight months. Residential construction is losing jobs, though only about 1% year over year. That is the one watch area. Because the signal the labor market normally sends is absent, he judges near-term recession risk low.
“We don't see that at all right now. We see the opposite... recession risk in the very near term is low with the one watch area being residential construction.”at 11:51
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Eric Basmajian · EPB Research
Economy can absorb a December Fed hike; recession risk is not on the immediate horizon.
Basmajian's basket of leading indicators is improving, and corporate profitability remains strong across all corporations. That makes the economy able to withstand higher interest rates in the short term. Even if the Fed raises rates in December, the economy has time to digest it over the next couple of quarters without leading indicators rolling over. Recession risk would only become a concern after tightening continues and residential construction, manufacturing and the labor market weaken, which he does not see in the next six months.
“the economy is likely to be able to withstand higher interest rates here in the short term. We will get to a point where they tighten policy enough that we start to see those leading indicators come down... But I don't see that on the immediate horizon, the next couple of quarters, the next six months.”at 39:32
The David Lin Report: Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian ·
Kevin Hassett · White House National Economic Council
Strong Q3 GDP from surging capital spending means growth can rise without inflation, since new supply is coming online.
He calls the strong third-quarter GDP number a blockbuster, driven by capital spending that is rising sharply. His argument is that when a large increase in productive capacity comes online, the economy can grow faster without generating Phillips-curve inflation. He treats the investment boom as a supply-side expansion that eases inflation pressure. His reasoning is conceptual and gives no specific sector numbers.
“the blockbuster GDP number that you mentioned with capital spending absolutely through the roof, when you get a big increase in supply, you could have lots of growth without creating Phillips curve inflationary”at 2:42
Bloomberg Talks: NEC Director Kevin Hassett Talks US Economy ·
Thomas Hoenig · Mercatus Center at George Mason University
2% US growth is unimpressive; the economy can do more and should not be satisfied with it.
He calls 2% growth for an economy like the United States not particularly impressive. He argues the economy is capable of more, which he uses to argue that tighter policy is not damaging a weak economy.
“2% growth for an economy like The United States, I think is not particularly impressive. The economy is capable of more than that. And I think we should not be satisfied with 2%.”at 12:25
The David Lin Report: Fed's Next Mistake? Ex-Fed President Warns Of Market Fallout | Thomas Hoenig ·
Andrew Dubinsky · UBS
US growth is strong; Q3 GDP at 3.4% reflects robust private demand and AI-linked investment.
Growth in the first half of the year was in the mid-2% range, and the first estimate for Q3 came in at 3.4%, above expectations. Dubinsky cites very strong private demand, with strong consumption and really strong business investment linked to the AI capex cycle. He calls the growth picture quite strong and says there is no way to avoid saying so.
“Growth is quite strong. The first half of the year in the mid 2% range for growth and this third quarter we have the first estimate at 3.4% which is a little bit above the expectations.”at 5:05
UBS On-Air: Top of the Morning: FOMC reflections & US economic update ·
Ivy Zelman · Zelman & Associates (a Walker & Dunlop company)
The economy is K-shaped: AI-linked firms do well while housing and most other industries are under pressure.
Economic discussion has moved from rich versus poor to AI versus everyone else. Companies outside the largest AI and tech names, and outside frontier labs, are in industries under tremendous pressure. Zelman says housing is among the worst of these, so the economic split is across many industries, not one.
“Now we have the AI and everyone else. Like, if you're not at the Big Seven or Meta or whatever these firms and you're not at Anthropic, you're in industries that are under tremendous pressure.”at 18:45
Wealthion: Housing Weakness is spreading to luxury buyers | Ivy Zelman ·
Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury
Bessent expects a strong third-quarter GDP print as the Fed signals an accelerating economy.
Bessent says the Fed's statement seems to insinuate that policymakers believe the economy is accelerating. He has not yet seen the data, but expects a strong GDP number for the third quarter. The argument rests on the Fed's wording rather than on hard data.
“They seem to insinuate that they believe that the economy is accelerating. I think we're gonna get... a strong GDP number for the third quarter.”at 41:33
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
Guy Adami · CNBC
Strong GDP depends on AI spending, a risk to growth that matters more for 2027.
Adami argues that a strong GDP number is predicated on AI spending, and that the market is now questioning exactly that spending. Because the GDP outlook depends on the things the market is worried about, he sees this as a greater concern probably for 2027, and possibly 2028. He cites Alphabet, Meta and Oracle signaling significant spending increases into 2027.
“Strong GDP number though is predicated on the AI spend, right?... we've to be concerned that GDP is all sort of predicated on exactly the things that are seemingly concerning the market right now. And I think that's a greater concern probably for 2027”at 41:52
CNBC Fast Money: Alphabet Search Miss, Microsoft Azure Beat and Fed’s Hawkish Pause 10/28/26 ·
Danielle DiMartino Booth · QI Research
AI spending is more than all US GDP growth, so the rest of the economy is contracting and AI growth has peaked.
She argues that more than 100% of US GDP growth is coming from AI spending, plus a defense-spending kicker, which implies the rest of the economy is contracting. She also says the growth rate of AI spending has peaked and turned, citing Warsh's own emphasis on second derivatives. Anna Wong's work on AI inputs to inflation shows those growth rates have also peaked. Together these suggest the economy's growth depends on an AI capex wave that is already decelerating.
“More than 100% of gross domestic product growth is coming from AI with the defense spending kicker. That means the rest of the economy is doing... Is contracting.”at 18:41
The Julia La Roche Show: #426 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Could Slam the Economy Into Recession — Fed Day Reaction ·
Axel Merk · Merk Investments
Warsh's November 16 productivity conference will likely be a significant policy speech on productivity.
Warsh said productivity gains have been ongoing and not just in recent months, and said he would speak at a productivity conference on November 16. He plans to learn from many experts and widen the task-force work. Axel reads the speech as the venue for Warsh to lay out how the Fed should look at productivity going forward. Warsh is a new Fed chair who has learned that too much openness in press conferences creates confusion, and he has found speeches an effective tool. Axel says the market has missed this announcement.
“he made an announcement that there's going to be a conference on productivity on November 16 in which he is going to speak.”at 19:44
Thoughtful Money: FOMC Live Reaction: Is The Fed Making A Policy Error? | Axel Merk ·
Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury
US third-quarter GDP should be strong, with the Atlanta Fed estimate well over 3%.
He says he has not seen the number yet but expects a strong Q3 GDP print. He cites the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast at well over 3%. He links this to the Fed's statement, which implies the economy is accelerating. The number is due the next day.
“I think we're gonna get a strong GDP number for the third quarter. Atlanta Fed is well over 3%.”at 11:27
CNBC Closing Bell: Big Tech Earnings Put the Rally to the Test; Warsh’s Latest Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
The US is worse off than in 1987, 2000 or 2008 and lacks the capacity to fix the next crisis.
Grandich, who says he sidestepped the 1987, 2000 and 2008 declines, argues that the US could previously act to eradicate the cause of a crisis, but no longer can. He says the country can no longer create trillions of dollars on demand as it did during COVID. If the US needed another $5 trillion, he believes markets would conclude the country cannot repay principal and would struggle to pay interest. He judges the economy, society and politics as much worse off than in those three periods.
“What's different now is I think we're worse off than any of those three periods. And the reason is the country, at least The US was in a position to do something to eradicate whatever that crisis was caused by. I don't believe we are that anymore.”at 36:22
The David Lin Report: China's Tech Stocks Crash 40%: Is Wall Street Next? | David Woo ·
Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs
US economy is split: AI and defense strong, while housing, autos and low-income consumers are sluggish.
Kaplan characterises the economy by sector. Anything related to AI or defense spending is super strong, while housing, autos, and serving low- to moderate-income consumers are sluggish. He frames the strength as concentrated rather than broad-based, which he links to the shift away from a consumer-led economy.
“this economy is... If it's anything AI related or defense spending related, super strong. If it's related to housing, autos, serving low moderate income consumers, sluggish.”at 3:45
Bloomberg Talks: Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Robert Kaplan Talks Fed Meeting ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Markets may read Fed hawkishness as a response to an oil shock, risking recession in the non-oil economy.
Donovan sees a risk in how markets interpret the Fed's hawkish stance. If investors take it as a sign the Fed intends to counter an oil shock with restrictive policy, the result could be a recession in the non-oil economy. He notes that bond investors have been flirting with this scenario, though equity investors have not.
“that the markets take the hawkishness as a sign that the Fed intends to counter an oil shock with a repressive policy and a recession in the non oil economy, a scenario bond investors, though not equity investors, have been flirting with.”at 2:28
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Fed – mime versus meme' ·
Michael Gapen · Morgan Stanley
US economy isn't overheating: labor market loose and wage growth decelerating despite AI investment.
Growth is resilient and inflation is sticky, but the labor market doesn't look like it is overheating. Job gains are only about 50,000 a month. The unemployment rate is low, but wage growth is decelerating. Gapen argues there is little evidence that the broader economy is overheating even with the AI investment boom. Because the Fed isn't behind the curve, it doesn't need to tighten aggressively, which supports a measured recalibration rather than a more aggressive hiking cycle.
“We're only adding about 50,000 jobs a month. The unemployment rate is low. That's true. But wage growth is actually decelerating.”at 3:06
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): To Hike or Not to Hike ·
Lotfi Karoui · PIMCO
The US cycle is unlikely to turn over the next twelve months; the economy remains healthy in aggregate.
The economy is uneven, with a K-shaped pattern across many dimensions, but in aggregate it is still pretty healthy. Karoui therefore sees a fairly low likelihood of a cycle inflection over the next twelve months. Credit is an anti-recession asset class that does poorly in bad states of the world. What would change his view is evidence of labor-market deterioration. That would spill over from CCC into broader high yield, and then widen investment grade.
“But in aggregate, this is an economy that's still pretty healthy in my view. And so the likelihood that the cycle inflects over the next twelve months is still fairly low.”at 9:27
UBS On-Air: Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Lotfi Karoui (PIMCO) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) ·
Ludovic Subran · Allianz
Only AI is growing; consumer, construction and trade outside AI are in recession.
Subran says about 60% of the US economy is not doing well, pointing to consumer sectors, healthcare and where jobs are concentrated. He says construction outside AI and trade outside AI are both in recession. AI is the one part of the economy running hot, and its capex cycle is fueling the headline strength. He uses this to argue the Fed's tools are mismatched to the economy.
“You know, 60% of this economy is actually not doing well... the construction sector, apart from AI, is actually in recession. Trade, apart [from] AI, is is in recession.”at 5:20
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 27th, 2026 ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
US growth is mostly AI capex; excluding it, the economy is weak and slowing.
Hyperscaler capex adds close to 2% of GDP, and without it growth is not great. Tax collections confirm this. Non-withheld personal income tax growth, which captures gig income and capital gains, went from about 30% earlier this year to about 10%. Withheld taxes slowed to about 3.5%. Aggregate personal income tax growth of about 5% would be a dream for France, but the fall from 10% points to a significant economic slowdown. Stock options and RSUs from the AI talent bidding war helped the early-year surge, and that is now fading.
“Where is our growth coming from? It's the AI bubble. And if you take out the close to 2% of GDP that we see in hyperscale CapEx, you realize that that growth is really not that great.”at 9:01
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
US faces stagflation: low growth and sticky inflation with no Fed or fiscal backstop.
The 2010s recovery relied on the Fed being able to cut rates or run QE whenever markets or growth wobbled. Since COVID, large deficits (Biden spending, the One Big Beautiful Bill) have acted as a fiscal put. Deluard expects neither to be available over the next two years. Inflation is running above what the Fed wants, which limits its ability to prioritise growth. Fiscal support is set to fade: he expects Democrats to win the House and Senate, with Trump holding veto power, so Congress can't easily add stimulus. If conditions deteriorate, the Fed would be the first place people turn, but it would be constrained. Growth stays weak while inflation remains sticky, which he describes as stagflation.
“In the next two years, I don't really see any of these puts. I mean, I think the Fed on the margin will try to prioritize the growth mandate, but it will be severely constrained by this higher than desired inflation.”at 1:01:08
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs
Growth is strong only in AI and defense; housing, autos and low-income consumers are sluggish, so growth is narrow.
Kaplan describes a two-speed economy. AI- and defense-related activity is super strong, while housing, autos and lower-to-moderate income consumers are sluggish. He notes that the AI push is narrow, focused on data centers, power and chips, unlike the consumer-led economy of past decades. Growth therefore depends on productivity and balanced regulation.
“If it's anything AI related or defense spending related, super strong. If it's related to housing, autos, serving low moderate income consumers, sluggish.”at 4:28
Bloomberg Surveillance: Previewing the Fed Meeting and AI IPOs ·
Colin Graham · Robeco
Slowing nominal GDP is a risk, since smaller fiscal stimulus next year will deflate nominal growth.
Graham argues high US nominal GDP growth has let other sectors generate good earnings, so a decline in GDP growth is an issue. He expects the fiscal stimulus next year to be smaller, which he says will probably deflate nominal GDP. He answered yes when asked if a decline in nominal GDP over two years is a legitimate risk.
“GDP coming down is an issue. So if we go through next year, what do we think the fiscal stimulus is gonna be? It's probably gonna be less. So that's going to probably deflate normal GDP”at 50:51
Bloomberg Surveillance: Previewing the Fed Meeting and AI IPOs ·
Chris Harvey · CIBC Capital Markets
The economy is beginning to slow as capital gets scarcer and the cost of capital rises for riskier borrowers.
The amount of available capital is shrinking and the cost of capital is rising sharply further down the risk spectrum. This is happening now and will continue. Investors should ask whether money is good or bad and what they are willing to pay, because capital has been too cheap for too long. As the economy slows, that discipline matters more.
“As we go forward in time, the economy is beginning to slow down. You do have to worry about... We have to start thinking about, is this money good? Is this money bad?”at 7:35
Jake Weinstein · Fidelity Investments
The US is in mid-cycle expansion, and recession typically comes much later, so the economy is in good shape.
Fidelity's business-cycle framework places most large economies in expansion, with the US in mid-cycle. Mid-cycle signs include labor markets holding up, accommodative fiscal and monetary policy, improving manufacturing, strong profit margins, and credit still flowing through banks and capital markets. Historically a long stretch passes between mid-cycle and recession, so Jake sees the US in a pretty good phase.
“And if you look right now for The US and for large economies across the world for the most part, like most economies are in expansion and The US is in that mid cycle phase.”at 3:59
Fidelity Viewpoints: 10.27.26 - Why a recession may be farther away than you think ·
Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners
US economy is strong: GDP projected near 3.5% and unemployment at 4.2%.
Lebenthal cites GDP growth projected at 3.5% for last quarter and unemployment at 4.2%. He points to everyday activity, such as crowded airports and restaurants on a Monday night, as evidence of an economy that is hopping. He uses these data as the basis for his view that the market turn is coming.
“GDP growth that right now is projected three and a half percent for last quarter, unemployment at 4.2%... This is an economy that's hopping. It's unquestionably hopping.”at 12:52
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
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