Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 27th, 2026

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 42 speakers in other episodes, 34 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Ludovic Subran · AllianzNeutral

  Nvidia's GPU pricing acts as the Fed of AI, and its price hikes would tighten the AI economy.

  Subran calls Nvidia the Fed of the AI world. He argues that when Nvidia raises GPU prices, that is where a real tightening of the AI economy would show up. The point is a mechanism linking chip pricing to AI spending conditions, with no explicit view on the stock's direction.

  “I always say NVIDIA is the Fed of the AI world. When So NVIDIA hikes prices for GPU, that will be where we'll see a real tightening of what's happening on the AI economy.”at 5:20

US rates & the Fed

• Ludovic Subran · Allianz

  Fed will hike twice more into early 2027 and push rates to 4.5-4.75% as inflation stays near 4%.

  Subran expects energy prices to keep rising and US inflation to peak again near 4% in early 2027, which makes it hard for the Fed to look through the shock. He expects the Fed to deliver two additional hikes in Q1 2027 after the December hike already priced. If inflation stays around 4% or higher, the Fed will have no choice but to hike further. He calls this a mini hiking cycle that lands the rate closer to 4%, with the Fed pushing it to 4.5-4.75%. He then expects cuts by the end of 2027 because he sees the inflation as transitory under the Fed's reaction function.

  “And I know this is a taboo word after what happened in 2022, but I do think that we will have a mini hike... Hiking cycle, and then the Fed would have to land somewhere closer to 4%. So... But we do think they will push it to 4.5, 4.75.”at 4:21

• Ludovic Subran · Allianz

  Fed should use balance-sheet quantitative tightening rather than policy rates to cool AI-driven markets.

  Subran argues the economy is bifurcated, with AI concentrating most of the growth and financial-market wealth effects. He says the Fed should do more quantitative tightening and use the balance sheet, repo and long-term holdings rather than the policy rate. He thinks the Fed is hesitating to resume QT because of the AI economy. He also argues the Fed should try to suppress volatility from AI and the wealth effect, and that this would require balance-sheet tools rather than rate moves.

  “I think there should be more quantitative tightening. That's that's really what the Fed should do at this moment, but they don't want to resume that because...”at 6:14

• Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs

  Fed can afford to skip October; hiking too far too fast is the bigger risk.

  Kaplan says the Fed has the luxury of waiting one meeting. He distinguishes strategic errors, which are delays that take a year or two to fix, from tactical errors, and says waiting one meeting is not a strategic mistake. He says the Fed's real worry is hiking too far, too fast, which would slow sluggish segments of the economy while diesel-driven inflation stays unresolved and the Fed struggles on both ends of its dual mandate. If the Fed skips October, it would be because it wants to understand these crosscurrents, not because it is done hiking.

  “I think they've got the luxury of waiting one meeting... Strategic error is you delay in a way that it takes a year or two to to fix it.”at 32:46

Middle East & Iran

• Karen Gibson · Academy Securities

  Iran believes it can outlast the US in a contest of political endurance, not military power.

  Gibson argues the US holds big military advantages, so the conflict is less a contest of military power than of wills and political endurance. The administration will be a lame duck with about two years left after the election. She thinks Iran believes that without a truly concerted military operation, it can sustain the conflict and outlast the US.

  “this is less a contest between military powers where we have tremendous advantages and strengths, and it's more a contest of wills and political endurance.”at 13:56

• Karen Gibson · Academy Securities

  US-Iran positions remain incompatible, so diplomacy will at most nibble at the edges.

  Gibson notes that Saudi Arabia has joined Qatar, Pakistan and Turkey as mediators, which matters because the Saudis cannot afford to absorb Iranian missile barrages while already facing Houthi strikes. But she sees the core positions as still incompatible, so talks are unlikely to produce more than marginal progress.

  “I think the positions are still incompatible, and I think they're unlikely to do more than anything but nibble around the edges if that.”at 16:41

• Karen Gibson · Academy Securities

  Houthis' cheap drones and missiles give them an asymmetric edge, and Saudi Arabia will keep bearing high defense costs.

  Gibson says the Houthis control terrain along the Red Sea that they have held for over a decade, making them hard to dislodge. They can interject Saudi shipping and have large asymmetric advantages because their drones and missiles are cheap and easy to produce. The Saudis spend billions to intercept them and must succeed every time, while the Houthis only need to get through occasionally. Even successful defense carries real economic impact by scaring people away.

  “The Houthis, that's a really tough nut to crack. It's gonna be difficult to dislodge them from the terrain that they control... they have tremendous asymmetric advantages.”at 18:51

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs

  Hyperscalers are raising enough equity to avoid excessive leverage, which is prudent.

  Kaplan says hyperscalers have decided to monitor their capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio. He says they have decided to raise enough equity so they do not become too highly leveraged. Lisa Abramowicz calls it responsible and prudent, and Kaplan agrees. The point is that the infrastructure buildout is being funded with a more balanced mix of equity and debt.

  “I think they've decided to monitor their capital structure and their debt to equity... to make sure that they've raised enough equity so they don't get too highly leveraged.”at 25:32

• Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs

  State data-center moratoriums are about fair terms and will be resolved, not a fundamental block.

  Kaplan says that several states, including Texas, have imposed moratoriums on data centers. He reads this as an effort to create a more level playing field on behind-the-meter power, sharing of tax revenue, water usage and other deal terms. He says this infrastructure concern will get resolved. He separates it from the separate concern about jobs and the dangers of AI models.

  “there's the moratorium in number states, including the one I live in Texas... I think that's a little bit more trying to create a more level playing field on behind the meter power, sharing of tax revenues, water usage... I think that will get resolved.”at 29:48

US growth & recession risk

• Ludovic Subran · Allianz

  Only AI is growing; consumer, construction and trade outside AI are in recession.

  Subran says about 60% of the US economy is not doing well, pointing to consumer sectors, healthcare and where jobs are concentrated. He says construction outside AI and trade outside AI are both in recession. AI is the one part of the economy running hot, and its capex cycle is fueling the headline strength. He uses this to argue the Fed's tools are mismatched to the economy.

  “You know, 60% of this economy is actually not doing well... the construction sector, apart from AI, is actually in recession. Trade, apart [from] AI, is is in recession.”at 5:20

Credit markets

• Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs

  Markets now price AI deals by business model and capital structure, charging more for sub-investment-grade debt.

  Kaplan says that even in large AI transactions, the market has started to differentiate based on business models and capital structure over the last few weeks. Companies need enough equity and limited debt so the model works in a downside case. He says the market is starting to charge more for issuers below investment grade, including single-B, and he views this as healthy. Capital is still harder to raise, and concessions have widened a little, but he expects good access.

  “the market started to differentiate based on business models and on capital structure. I think that's a healthy development.”at 23:46

AI pricing & unit economics

• Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs

  Token and compute demand will ramp, but prices for certain token types will fall.

  Kaplan expects a big continued ramp in token demand and compute demand. He expects prices for certain types of tokens to decline, and he sees that as a healthy natural development. He argues that firms should be judged by whether they are merchants selling compute, or by whether they use it to monetize their own customer revenue. Model makers should also be assessed on how dependent they are on compute pricing and how speculative that is.

  “We think there's going to be a big ramp up continued in token demand and demand for compute, but the pricing for certain types of tokens will probably decline.”at 26:52

Enterprise AI adoption & AI software

• Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs

  Companies have learned from AI use cases; more tangible benefits will show up over the next year.

  Kaplan says that most companies started trying 15 to 20 AI use cases in earnest about a year ago. Some work and some don't, and firms are learning how to use and segment tokens. He concedes many companies say they have not yet seen tangible benefits. But his view, based on Goldman's experience with clients, is that more and more benefits will be realized over the next year as companies learn.

  “And I think even though many companies say we haven't yet seen tangible benefits, I think actually, you're gonna see more and more benefits realized over the next year as companies learn, and that's been our experience.”at 28:18

AI & jobs

• Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs

  AI lets firms grow revenue 50% with the same headcount, shifting the mix of people rather than cutting them.

  Kaplan says AI is giving CEOs more confidence to plan for 30-50% higher revenues. Firms will redeploy existing people or hire new ones to cover more clients, and they may cut some internal functions. He expects revenue to be 50% higher in five years with the same number of people, maybe not fewer people but a different mix. He argues that face-to-face relationship and flexibility skills will become more valuable, and that people who view their careers narrowly will face more challenges.

  “...five years from now, we're gonna have 50% more revenue with the same number of people. Maybe not less people, but a different mix of people.”at 28:32

US inflation

• Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs

  Inflation broadening is structural from oil and diesel, not excess demand; the economy is mixed.

  Kaplan says the debate is whether inflation is supply or demand driven, and cyclical or structural. He says AI-related and defense-related activity is strong, while housing, autos and lower-to-moderate-income consumer segments are sluggish. He argues the economy is more mixed than the headline suggests. He also says that if the oil and diesel spike could be undone, the broadening of inflation would look more like a structural change than excess demand.

  “If it's AI related, it's strong. If it's defense spending related, very strong. If it's housing, autos, serving low moderate income consumers, sluggish.”at 31:33