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What podcasters are saying about Middle East & Iran
Summary
In the past 30 days, 46 speakers on 24 finance podcasts discussed Middle East & Iran in 60 views. Chorus has followed Middle East & Iran since September 25, 2026: 62 views from 48 speakers on 24 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Quinn Thompson · 4
- Paul Donovan · 3
- Karen Gibson · 3
- Axel Merk · 2
- Kurt Volker · 2
- Peter Grandich · 2
- Chris Whalen · 2
- Matt Smith · 2
- Helima Croft · 2
- R.P. Eddy · 2
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
Iran has more leverage than the West assumes and can keep the conflict dragging on.
Iran does not need to defeat the US militarily. It only needs to keep the US burning through air-defense interceptors faster than they can be produced. Illustratively, the US can replace about 100 missiles a month, while sustained Iranian drone and missile salvos force 150 to 300 a month. Once the US runs out, Iran can strike with impunity, and the US cannot put troops into bases it cannot defend or fight without air superiority. Russia and China are resupplying Iran and benefit from the drag, and Israel is not bothered because the US bears the burden. Gromen expects the conflict to keep dragging on and sees the bond market as a second front: the 10-year reached 5.3% in a sell-off that changed sentiment, so Iran's leverage is larger than the Western narrative suggests.
“Iran has more leverage than the Western narrative suggests because Iran doesn't have to beat The US, it just has to beat the bond market.”at 7:56
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Christine Lagarde · European Central Bank
Disrupted energy supplies from the Middle East conflict are the main downside growth and upside inflation risk.
The Middle East conflict is a central source of downside growth risk. Continued disruption of energy supplies could push energy prices up further and keep them high for longer than expected. That would weigh on real incomes, spending and investment. The risks to inflation are to the upside, because the energy shock could spread to other prices and wages through second-round effects. Services already weakened at the start of the conflict before recovering.
“Continued disruption of energy supplies could cause energy prices to rise further and for longer than currently expected.”at 7:35
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Andrew Dubinsky · UBS
Middle East conflict and supply-chain pressures are upside risks that skew inflation risks higher.
Dubinsky says there is still a pretty kinetic conflict in the Middle East, and supply-chain upside risks still seem quite relevant and have not improved much. Together with AI demand pressure, these upside risks are not looking favourable, so the skew of risks for inflation is unfavourable. These are among the key factors the Fed and UBS are watching, and they could change the outlook.
“Obviously we still have a pretty kinetic conflict in The Middle East and supply chain upside risk still seem quite relevant and haven't improved that much.”at 4:00
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Ed Morse · Hartree Partners
Optimistic the Strait of Hormuz can reopen because Iran's leadership is under strain.
He says Iran is in a very difficult situation. Its leadership is split, and no one is calling it quits as the original supreme leader nearly did. Officials from the IRGC generation who got rich and now control the supreme leader are in a dicier position than before. That is the basis for his optimism that the strait can be reopened.
“I'm optimistic we could open it again. Part of that optimism at the extreme is to remember that Iran is in a very difficult situation.”at 25:05
Bloomberg Surveillance: Outlook for Inflation, Oil, and Tech ·
Vincent Daniel · Seawolf Capital
Ending the war would lower rates, oil and credit spreads, extending the cycle.
Vincent says the one thing that could extend the current cycle is an end to the war. Ending it would bring down rates, oil and credit spreads, which would support the cycle. He says that is not the case right now, which is why he is keeping an open mind over the coming months. The inflationary forces the economy is seeing, at least partly from the war, would come to an end, giving the Fed room to ease off hikes.
“The one thing that could happen that could extend this is if we end the war, rates come down, oil comes down, credit spreads come in, and that extends the cycle.”at 42:48
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Axel Merk · Merk Investments
Iran war is priced as a temporary shock, not a structural change, implying higher real rates.
Merk argues markets price the Iran war as a shock rather than a structural change. That implies higher real interest rates, which he calls a headwind for gold, all else equal. The headwind reverses only if policymakers react strongly to the stagflationary impact, which then helps precious metals. He notes that a resolution would also be good for oil prices, and an Iran faltering would presumably also help oil prices.
“the war in Iran is priced in as a shock rather than as a structural change. And it implies a higher real interest rates. And I don't wanna get even more nerdy than we have been, but all else equal, that's a headwind to the price of gold.”at 1:14:09
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Chris Wright · U.S. Department of Energy
The Iran conflict is a short-term energy disruption, justified because a nuclear-armed Iran would be far costlier.
Wright concedes that starting kinetic conflict in the Middle East, a major energy-producing region, affects energy supply. He argues a nuclear-armed Iran would have enormous consequences for long-term energy prices and regional stability, and that President Trump would not hand his successor that outcome. He calls the current disruption 'a short term interruption in affordable energy, but it's for a strategic reason.' He says the economic cost, plus 18 American soldiers killed, is still modest compared with a nuclear Iran. He frames the broader price problem as structural and caused by Democratic energy policy.
“But a nuclear armed Iran would have enormous consequences, not just for long term energy prices, but for peace and stability in the region.”at 5:42
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Scott Bessent · U.S. Department of the Treasury
The economic blockade is isolating Iran; its economy may contract as much as 25% in a year.
He says the blockade, called the toughest operation ever to isolate a single economy, has been very successful. The currency has collapsed, and internal estimates show the economy could shrink by as much as 25% from March to March, a faster contraction than Russia's after the Iron Curtain fell. Elected officials are worried, the IRGC is talking about collapse, and the regime cannot pay troops or obtain dollars. Proxy funding is being cut off.
“We have internal estimates that show that the economy from March to March, when the blockade started... may contract by as much as 25%.”at 16:06
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Jeremy Zirin · UBS Asset Management
Unresolved Middle East tensions could keep energy prices high, sticking inflation and prompting more Fed hikes.
Zirin lists the path of economic growth as the second key variable. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East do not de-escalate, energy prices may stay higher for longer. That would make inflation stickier and could trigger further Fed rate hikes. The reverse is also true: if oil and especially diesel prices normalize, core inflation pressures should ease. That could trigger a strong equity rally, especially in areas of the market that have lagged this year.
“If geopolitical tensions in The Middle East do not de escalate, energy prices may stay higher for longer, leading to stickier inflation and potentially triggering even more rate hikes by the Fed.”at 8:51
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Kurt Volker · Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
After the midterms Trump must choose: accept Iran's Gulf control or push to topple the regime.
Volker says Trump has paused attacks and kept the economic embargo to keep oil prices lower before the midterms. After the midterms he faces a choice. He can leave Iran de facto controlling the Persian Gulf, with the regime and its proxy support intact and growing control over time. Or he can return to war to change that setup, ideally toppling the regime. Volker argues Israel alone will not have much more success against Iran than it has had, so any push depends on combining with the US.
“We have a pause right now. President Trump has decided to keep the economic embargo in place, but ratchet down any attacks in an effort to try to keep oil prices lower before the midterm elections.”at 33:23
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Kurt Volker · Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
Israel's government formation will take many months, so no near-term change in Israel.
Volker says there will be little change in Israel in the very short term. Netanyahu's party won fewer seats, and he probably gets the first chance to form a government. Whether he has the coalition votes is unclear, and if he doesn't, the mandate passes to his opponent. He says this 'can go on for many months,' so no changes should be expected in the short term.
“In the very short term, not much change in Israel... This can go on for many months, and so don't expect any changes here in the short term.”at 36:03
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Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
The administration may launch new military action soon after the election, before the new Congress takes office.
Grandich argues that Democrats would not fund a continuing large-scale war under a Trump administration, and that the new House and Senate take office in early January. He thinks that is why the administration may be preparing to act before then, possibly fitting a war into the six or seven weeks after the election. He presents this as a plausible explanation rather than a certainty.
“And that could be why they're gonna try to fit a war into six or seven weeks soon after the election.”at 11:39
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Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Investors are unlikely to bet heavily on a near-term renewal of the Gulf War after the US midterms.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that the US is warning Gulf countries of a possible short but intense renewal of the Gulf War after the US midterm elections. Donovan expects markets to price in the idea of escalation. Given past performance, he thinks few investors will bet on the short duration described with much conviction.
“Markets will take into account the idea of an escalation of the conflict. Given past performance, it is unlikely that many investors will choose to bet on the short part of the description with much conviction.”at 2:58
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Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Israel's inconclusive election leaves Netanyahu as temporary PM, keeping control of the military until a result.
Israel's general election has produced no decisive result, because neither Netanyahu's coalition nor the opposition can form a clear majority. Donovan notes that exit polls are not wholly reliable in Israel and that the seat count is likely to shift. He concludes that Netanyahu will stay on as temporary prime minister, and so in control of the military, until a definite political outcome emerges.
“It suggests that Netanyahu will remain as temporary prime minister and thus in control of the military forces until a definite political outcome emerges.”at 3:55
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Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management
Iran's nuclear progress justified action before it reached a point the US could not stop.
Ackman argues that Iran was getting closer to a point where the US could no longer act on its nuclear capability. He cites North Korea as a precedent, where proximity to South Korea and nuclear progress left the US unable to intervene. He adds that Iran's treatment of its people shows it does not share US principles, so it should not be allowed to gain absolute power. The argument is geopolitical and has no direct market or asset-price link.
“Iran was getting closer and closer to a place where we couldn't do anything about their nuclear capability.”at 48:08
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Karen Gibson · Academy Securities
Iran believes it can outlast the US in a contest of political endurance, not military power.
Gibson argues the US holds big military advantages, so the conflict is less a contest of military power than of wills and political endurance. The administration will be a lame duck with about two years left after the election. She thinks Iran believes that without a truly concerted military operation, it can sustain the conflict and outlast the US.
“this is less a contest between military powers where we have tremendous advantages and strengths, and it's more a contest of wills and political endurance.”at 13:56
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 27th, 2026 ·
Karen Gibson · Academy Securities
US-Iran positions remain incompatible, so diplomacy will at most nibble at the edges.
Gibson notes that Saudi Arabia has joined Qatar, Pakistan and Turkey as mediators, which matters because the Saudis cannot afford to absorb Iranian missile barrages while already facing Houthi strikes. But she sees the core positions as still incompatible, so talks are unlikely to produce more than marginal progress.
“I think the positions are still incompatible, and I think they're unlikely to do more than anything but nibble around the edges if that.”at 16:41
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Karen Gibson · Academy Securities
Houthis' cheap drones and missiles give them an asymmetric edge, and Saudi Arabia will keep bearing high defense costs.
Gibson says the Houthis control terrain along the Red Sea that they have held for over a decade, making them hard to dislodge. They can interject Saudi shipping and have large asymmetric advantages because their drones and missiles are cheap and easy to produce. The Saudis spend billions to intercept them and must succeed every time, while the Houthis only need to get through occasionally. Even successful defense carries real economic impact by scaring people away.
“The Houthis, that's a really tough nut to crack. It's gonna be difficult to dislodge them from the terrain that they control... they have tremendous asymmetric advantages.”at 18:51
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Vincent Deluard · StoneX
An Iran escalation would push oil and yields up together, hitting stocks and bonds at once.
He sees no prompt resolution in Iran or Russia-Ukraine. The issue is refining margins and destroyed capacity, which will stick. In an escalation, the bill for expensive oil can only be paid by selling Treasuries, so oil and yields would rise together. Stocks, bonds and risk-off currencies like the yen would not work in that scenario. Energy stocks, oil futures and calls are the only hedges. He calls it a tail risk and a reason for caution.
“So we would go back, I think, to a world where oil and yields would go up at the same time.”at 27:21
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Axel Merk · Merk Investments
Iran war is a supply shock; oil likely falls under either a Hormuz toll or regime collapse.
Merk calls the Iran war a severe supply shock with crosscurrents. He argues the Iran war will eventually resolve. In one extreme, Trump walks away and Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, which would be geopolitically bad, but even with a high toll oil prices would likely come down. In the other extreme, the US prevails and the Iranian regime collapses, which also leads to a resolution. Even in the current stalemate oil is flowing, though fertilizer may not be. He expects the market to adapt and move on to other themes over the medium term.
“even if they exert a high toll, odds are that oil prices would come down. At the other extreme, if The US prevails, Iran's regime collapses, there would also be a resolution going forward.”at 10:22
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Mikkel Rosenvold · Steno Research (Real Vision)
Israel's election likely yields a hung parliament, and even a Eisenkot win would not shift foreign policy.
Rosenvold expects a hung parliament because neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot will easily build a majority. A coalition between them looks tricky after harsh words in the campaign, and Eisenkot may need Arab parties. Even if Eisenkot forms a government, regional policy should not change much: possible tweaks on the West Bank and Gaza but no major shift on Iran, since Eisenkot backed hitting civilian infrastructure in the war.
“We are expecting a hung parliament... I don't expect, and that's one thing a lot of people get wrong. Even if Eisenkort is able to form a government, we shouldn't expect a flip flop or change of course in the regional policies.”at 22:29
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Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners
Diplomacy won't work without a subpar deal; attacking oil would be a market disaster.
Weiss sees the Middle East as the key factor for the market. Stocks are up today on hopes that diplomatic avenues are being pursued, but he argues those efforts have never paid off and never will unless a subpar deal is struck. He says that if the US goes after oil, as he says everyone expects, the market would face a disaster.
“And for me, a lot of it comes back to what's going to happen in The Middle East... diplomatic avenues are being pursued, but they've never paid off. They never will pay off unless we take a [subpar] deal. But if you go after oil, which everybody says they're gonna do, including The US, then you've got a disaster in the market.”at 4:43
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Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners
Market is pricing in a Middle East deal; escalation sending oil to $150 is the unpriced risk.
Terranova argues the consensus, including himself, does not believe the black swan event will happen. He thinks the market is priced for a deal, whether subpar or good. The event the market is not ready for is escalation, with oil spiking toward $150. He puts the odds of that spike at roughly 1-3%, but says investors tend to ignore such risks until they happen.
“I think the market is priced in a deal, and the black swan event that the market's not ready for is escalation. Oil goes to [$150].”at 14:39
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Anastasia Amoroso · Partners Group
The Gulf is shifting from a capital source to a direct investment destination in energy, AI and manufacturing.
Amoroso says the Apollo–Mubadala deal repositions how the Gulf is treated globally. The region has long been a place to source capital, but now investors are moving to invest directly in countries like Abu Dhabi. She cites her firm's presence in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and a new Kuwait office. She sees significant opportunity from the region's technology commitment, its data center and AI push, the need to strengthen energy infrastructure, and manufacturing and digital services.
“The move is actually to invest directly into the countries like Abu Dhabi... we do believe there's a significant investment opportunity in the region itself... the data center push, the AI push from Abu Dhabi, it comes from energy... So that's highly investable.”at 32:48
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Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
The Middle East situation is much worse than the administration has admitted; the Iran conflict is a quagmire.
Grandich argues the Middle East situation is far worse than the current administration has let on for many months. The group that was supposed to be annihilated still has the capacity to cause harm, and more damage is being done by the opposing side than by the supposed victor. He says this could end up being one of the biggest quagmires in US history. He thinks the administration has massaged things to keep stocks up. He also suggests Trump may try to fit military action in before a Democratic Congress takes office in January, since Democrats would be unlikely to fund a continuing large-scale war while Trump is in charge.
“So the Middle East situation is a lot worse than we've been led to believe by this current administration for many months.”at 13:47
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Peter Tchir · Academy Securities
Expects more US attacks on Iran after the election, with no quick path to victory or an end to the conflict.
Tchir's firm expects more attacks after the election. The US is likely to target shoreline positions to degrade Iran's ability to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and to make one more run at nuclear facilities. He sees no clear path to quick victory; more damage will only push Iran toward the table and will not end the conflict.
“No one really sees that there's a real clear path, though, to quick victory. We can do more damage to them, but it's only gonna help drive them to the negotiating table. It's not gonna end this.”at 11:11
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Heidi Crebo-Rediker · Council on Foreign Relations
Expects a strong administration attack on Iran after the midterms; no end in sight to the Hormuz standoff.
There is a decent expectation the administration will strongly attack Iran after the midterm elections. Iran has no reason to give up its chokehold in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is no upside without counteraction such as cyberattacks or kinetic attacks on Gulf infrastructure. Crebo-Rediker expects this to play out over a long period.
“you already have a decent expectation that the administration is going to really go in strongly and attack Iran after the midterm elections. ...I don't see any end in sight.”at 21:42
Bloomberg Surveillance: Market Uncertainty Ahead of the Midterms ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Trump's Iran remarks carry little market weight because politics will limit his ability to act.
Trump's weekend remarks on Iran carry much less weight in financial markets. Investors assume the domestic politics of the situation will limit his ability to act. The evidence cited is that retail diesel prices in the US keep rising and gasoline prices have stopped declining, which adds political pressure against escalation.
“Investors assume that the politics of this situation will thus limit Trump's ability to act.”at 0:52
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Ted Mortonson · Baird
Iran's nuclear-facility phase is the feared risk; Trump unlikely to act before midterms, but worry follows.
He describes three phases of the Iran conflict: bombing supply chains, the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and a third phase targeting five nuclear facilities. He says the street is most worried about the third phase. He argues Trump is unlikely to act before the November midterms, so the risk builds after November 4. Brent near $115 and the conflict's global spillover affect AI rollout, Europe and the US.
“that's the phase that the street is very much worried about. And if you listen to President Trump, he's not gonna do anything before the midterms to influence the vote.”at 3:42
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Lance Roberts · RIA Advisors
A grand bargain ending the wars would help stocks and bonds and hurt oil.
Adam asked how a Trump-Xi-Putin deal that ends the Ukraine and Iran wars would affect markets. Lance says it would be good for stocks and great for bonds, because it would remove the risk premium. War-related assets such as oil would fall, and oil prices would drop quickly on any agreement. He also argues that an Iran resolution would bring oil prices down, eventually causing demand destruction and then slower growth and lower rates.
“Good for stocks, great for bonds, and you know, not so good for other war related assets, obviously, like oil, etcetera.”at 1:04:35
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