Bill Ackman: Concentrated Investing, Permanent Capital, and the Value of Being Challenged

Brookfield

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Brookfield is attractively valued because it is complicated, and it is simplifying, which Pershing invested behind.

  Ackman says Brookfield is complex, and that complexity is one reason it is attractively valued. The company has been simplifying its business over time and has become a more asset-light royalty-collecting business. Pershing began a due diligence process several years ago and invested after a diligence process of several months.

  “Brookfield's actually quite a complicated company. It's one of the reasons why it's attractively valued. They've been simplifying the business over time.”at 13:10

Microsoft

Across the shows: 16 speakers in other episodes, 12 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Microsoft's stock fell on heavier AI capex despite strong demand, which Pershing saw as an entry point.

  Ackman describes Microsoft as the same pattern as Meta. The company publicly says it has enormous demand for its service and therefore has to invest in capex well above what was expected, and the stock price goes down. He says this dynamic is what led Pershing to invest in Microsoft.

  “And the same with Microsoft. ... it's sort of an interesting environment when you have a company come out publicly and say, we have enormous demand for our service. ... And that's what led to an investment in Microsoft.”at 14:39

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 52 speakers in other episodes, 45 bullish and 27 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital ManagementBullish

  Meta's stock sold off on its capex commitment, which reflects real demand, so Pershing bought it.

  Ackman says Pershing acquired Meta after the company disappointed investors by committing a large amount of money to capex. The company said it had enormous demand for its service and so had to invest well above expectations to meet it, and the stock fell. Ackman treats the sell-off as a reaction to spending that serves real demand, which made the stock an attractive entry point.

  “We acquired Meta after they disappointed people by committing a large amount of money to CapEx... we have enormous demand for our service. Therefore, we have to invest, well in excess of what we expected in CapEx just to try to meet the demand from our product, and then stock price goes down.”at 14:39

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  AI makes market participants shorter-term, as it can instantly read filings and speed up the hunt for short-term edges.

  Ackman argues AI is making market participants increasingly short-term. A 10-K gets published and AI can read it instantly, and a huge amount of capital is now invested in searching for short-term edges, which AI enables. He sees this as a shift away from long-term, fundamentals-based investing.

  “I think it's making market participants increasingly shorter and shorter term. ... A 10 k gets published and AI can read it instantly. There's a huge amount of capital invested in looking for a short term edge. And AI, I think, enables that.”at 13:54

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  Indexation and leveraged short-term capital make great stocks overreact to misses, creating buying opportunities.

  Ackman says a high-quality business that disappointed used to drop 3-4% on a miss, but can now fall 30-40%. He attributes this to rising indexation, which reduces float, and to growing amounts of leveraged, short-term capital in markets. The result is that amazing durable companies periodically become available at discounted prices after short-term disappointments.

  “it used to be that a really high quality business that somehow disappointed the stock might drop three or 4%, that the stock could drop 30 or 40% on a miss. And I think that's driven by the increasing kind of indexation, which is reducing float”at 18:01

AI: overall outlook

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  AI will make intelligence a cheap commodity, leaving creativity as the human edge and possibly driving abundance and growth.

  Ackman expects AI to give almost everyone access to very low-cost, very high intelligence. Intelligence has been a competitive advantage, and it becomes a commodity. LLMs can absorb everything that came before, but he doubts AI can yet be creative in the way Einstein's relativity was. He thinks what remains for humans is creativity, and that this could bring an explosion of entrepreneurship and a higher overall GDP and global growth rate.

  “It's gonna give almost everyone access to very low cost, very high intelligence. ... I sort of make the argument that what's left when everyone has access to low cost superintelligence is sort of creativity.”at 15:12

Pharma & biotech

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  AI will let brain-computer interfaces restore sight and walking within years, not months.

  Ackman has met many brain-computer interface companies, Neuralink being the best known, and sees promising lower-intervention technologies. He argues AI will let us extract more signal from the brain and interpret it far more effectively than before. He expects this to restore vision to the blind and walking to paraplegics. He frames the timeline as a matter of years, though not too many years. He also cites the neglect of brain rehabilitation research, where many neurologists doubt they can help patients, as the reason he is funding a new institute.

  “AI is gonna enable us. We're gonna be able to get more signal from the brain... the blind will see again... paraplegics, I believe, will walk again. And... It's a matter of not months, but years, but not too many years.”at 42:28

Middle East & Iran

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  Iran's nuclear progress justified action before it reached a point the US could not stop.

  Ackman argues that Iran was getting closer to a point where the US could no longer act on its nuclear capability. He cites North Korea as a precedent, where proximity to South Korea and nuclear progress left the US unable to intervene. He adds that Iran's treatment of its people shows it does not share US principles, so it should not be allowed to gain absolute power. The argument is geopolitical and has no direct market or asset-price link.

  “Iran was getting closer and closer to a place where we couldn't do anything about their nuclear capability.”at 48:08

AI regulation & safety

• Bill Ackman · Pershing Square Capital Management

  Slowing AI development is unwise because adversaries reaching superintelligence first is the bigger risk.

  Ackman argues that AI creates the same kind of challenge as nuclear proliferation: a rival that gets a decisive capability first could gain absolute power. He says the US cannot slow down on AI because one of its enemies might reach superintelligence first. He ties this to maintaining preeminent military AI and nuclear capability as a deterrent. The case rests on a strategic race dynamic rather than on any specific company or market outcome.

  “I don't know that we can slow down on AI because imagine if, one of our enemies gets to super intelligence.”at 48:50