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Helima Croft: latest market views
RBC Capital Markets
Summary
Helima Croft is managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, specializing in geopolitics and energy, and is a CNBC contributor.
Chorus has 8 views from Helima Croft across 2 episodes on CNBC Power Lunch and CNBC Fast Money since October 19, 2026.
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Low Europe gas storage and Hormuz risk could drive a bidding war for uncontracted US LNG cargoes this winter.
Croft explains the split: US natural gas is cheap because the country is a large producer and exporter, and prices already reflect possibly warmer weather in November. Europe's storage is well below normal for this time of year. A significant escalation in the Middle East could cut off hopes of extra Qatari supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatari LNG mostly goes to Asia, so uncontracted US cargoes could be fought over by Europe and Asia. Europe could face a difficult winter without weather relief.
“But if you talk about Europe, as you just mentioned, European storage levels are well below where they should be this time of year. If we have significant escalation in The Middle East, we can basically take away any hopes of getting more supply from Qatar through Strait Of Hormuz.”at 17:55
CNBC Power Lunch: Oil Hits 5-Month High, iPhone Duo Launch, Weekend Sports Slate 10/23/26 ·
Hormuz oil flows come at extortionate shipping and military cost, and ships are still targeted, so transit isn't smooth.
Croft says the debate about whether Hormuz traffic is near pre-war levels misses the cost. Shipping costs to move those barrels are extortionate. US military resources are a heavy burden on CENTCOM forces. Companies operating in the Gulf report that their ships keep being targeted and people are dying. Even though physical volumes have increased, the passage is far from smooth.
“The question I keep asking is at what cost? If you look at the the shipping cost to move those barrels, it's extortionate. If you think about The US military resources that are being used to move those cargoes, huge burden on CENTCOM forces.”at 19:56
CNBC Power Lunch: Oil Hits 5-Month High, iPhone Duo Launch, Weekend Sports Slate 10/23/26 ·
Substantially more Russian diesel exports depend on Ukraine halting refinery strikes and on sanctions policy.
Croft says Trump pulled back sanctions on Russia and announced an energy ceasefire that has not taken effect. Significantly more Russian cargoes would require Ukraine to agree not to target Russian refineries. Ukraine is still hitting that infrastructure, so she doubts a plausible path to much higher diesel exports. Republicans unhappy with the sanctions pullback could push to tighten the sanctions architecture after the midterms, including by removing the national-security waiver the White House holds.
“The question is, would we be talking about significantly more cargoes in this pullback of sanctions situation if we had Ukraine agreeing not to target Russian refineries?”at 21:27
CNBC Power Lunch: Oil Hits 5-Month High, iPhone Duo Launch, Weekend Sports Slate 10/23/26 ·
Escalation risk in the Gulf is high after the midterms, with Saudi Arabia now a second front.
Croft sees a significant risk of escalation after the midterms, as the finish-the-job camp gains influence and pressure builds on Trump to get tougher on Iran. Iran keeps targeting tankers in Hormuz and ships are being sunk. The Houthis have hit Riyadh airport, which has been closed for over a week, killing 12 and wounding 300. They have also hit Saudi Aramco headquarters. She says there are no signs of an off-ramp, and Saudi Arabia is now the more worrying front.
“I think there's a significant risk that we have an escalation post midterm, that you have the sort of finish the job camp be ascendant.”at 33:51
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Hormuz flows have risen since August, but at great military cost, so the strait is still not open for business.
Croft acknowledges that transits through Hormuz rose from August onward. She says that came at a high cost. By some accounts about 30% of US naval assets are being used on the blockade of Iran, and ships are still being targeted. The arrangement is patchwork, so the strait is not open for business even if more crude is moving. Gulf states say this is not sustainable.
“we did see an increase from August onward in transits through Hormuz. But I always say at what cost? ... By some accounts, 30% of US naval assets are being used just on the blockade of Iran. ... So it is not open for business.”at 35:03
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
The Strait of Hormuz is not open for business, and ships are still being targeted.
Croft says US naval assets are being used to blockade Iran and that ships moving through the Strait are still being targeted. Passage relies on a patchwork arrangement, so the route is not open or easy even when more crude moves through it. Gulf officials have said this arrangement is not sustainable, and the attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure add to the strain.
“So it is not open for business. Even if more crude was going through there, it wasn't a situation where it was open or easy. And people from The Gulf kept saying, this is not sustainable.”at 35:21
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Crude's price doesn't reflect a post-midterm escalation risk in the Middle East war.
Croft argues the current oil price does not include the risk of an escalation after the midterms. Ports such as Yanbu have been targeted and the East-West pipeline has been hit, and ships still face attacks despite a patchwork naval escort arrangement. The war is now in its eighth month with no off-ramp, so a true escalation could push crude above the Russia-Ukraine highs. She also notes that some in the market still expect a deal after the midterms, which she doubts.
“if we see an escalation scenario post midterm, that is not reflected in the current price. ... a true escalation scenario post midterm, then I think you're seeing taking out through the Russia Ukraine highs.”at 36:20
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
The Ukraine war has no off-ramp, and Zelenskyy is unlikely to stop hitting Russian energy.
Croft argues that markets still hold a view that a deal will come after the midterms, but the war is in its eighth month. Early on, the market was told the war would end within days, and the trend has since worsened. Zelenskyy sees strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as a vital way to defund the Russian war effort and is not inclined to accept the terms on the table, so she sees no visible exit.
“Remember, like, eight days into the war, we were being told this was gonna end, and the trend line is getting worse right now. So I just... I look at this and I say, where's our off ramp?”at 36:33
CNBC Fast Money: Buying Opportunity In AI Pullback?... And Oil’s Next Move 10/19/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
- CNBC Fast Money · 1 episode
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