Speaker · Updated
Steve Weiss: latest market views
Short Hills Capital Partners
Summary
Steve Weiss is the founder and managing partner of Short Hills Capital Partners, a hedge fund firm, and a regular member of CNBC's Halftime Report Investment Committee.
Chorus has 27 views from Steve Weiss across 4 episodes on CNBC Halftime Report since October 19, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Apple, Moderna, Alphabet and Leidos Holdings; bearish on Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Anthropic and CoreWeave.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- AppleBullish ·
- CaterpillarBearish ·
- ModernaBullish ·
- NVIDIABearish ·
- AlphabetBullish ·
- Leidos HoldingsBullish ·
- Meta PlatformsBullish ·
- AnthropicBearish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- Dick's Sporting GoodsBullish ·
- Micron TechnologyBearish ·
- The Goldman Sachs GroupBullish ·
- UnitedHealth GroupBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI spending is at its peak with significant overordering in memory, chips and overbuilt data centers.
Weiss says ROI from AI spending has been elusive across most reports, with the possible exception of Meta and Microsoft. Private internet companies are struggling to raise capital, and the take-or-pay contracts that are supposed to guarantee demand are not real. He sees the spending cycle as peaking: no aggressive capex raises this season, though spending is still high and hits cash flow. He is sure of overordering in memory, chips and data centers, as in every cycle.
“I have no doubt that there's significant over ordering in memory, in chips, and overbuilding in data centers. You see it in every single cycle.”at 8:55
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
CaterpillarBearish
Caterpillar's data center narrative is unchanged, and the stock getting smoked is deserved after its roughly one-third drop.
Weiss sold Caterpillar and says its narrative has not changed; it is a bet on data center demand. The stock is down about a third from where he sold it and got smoked the day before, which he says is what should happen. He reads the drop as the market reacting to the data center cycle turning.
“look, I sold Caterpillar. Caterpillar's narrative hasn't changed... It's the data center narrative. Stock's down more than a third or roughly a third from where I sold it... It got smoked as it should have.”at 9:40
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
The AI equity cycle is near its end, so valuations will reset as capex-heavy companies' numbers come down.
Weiss says that he is not saying the spending is ending, but the equity growth in the cycle is nearing its end. Valuations will go back to fundamentals, and earnings estimates will come down, especially for companies on the capex side that build infrastructure rather than just spend. He points to private-market financing trouble and the lack of real guarantees as signs the cycle is turning.
“I'm saying the growth in the cycle has near its end in terms of the equities, and now it's gonna be back to valuation.”at 11:36
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
NVIDIABearish
Nvidia's vendor and circular financing of AI deals is a warning sign; he sold most of his stake.
Weiss sold most of his Nvidia. He says it is not a house of cards and has a strong balance sheet, but Nvidia is financing a lot of the buildout. He sees many private deals where Nvidia is an investor, guarantor or debt holder, which he calls the height of circular and vendor financing. That raises his concern about future earnings for the capex-heavy names.
“But they're financing everything. ... To me, that is just the height of circular financing, vendor financing.”at 11:36
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
ModernaBullish
Moderna's pipeline of 39 vaccines and drugs and strong Keytruda combination results make the future bright.
Weiss doesn't care much about the upcoming quarter but says the excitement around Moderna is palpable after a dinner with CEO Stéphane Bancel. The company has 39 vaccines and drugs in its pipeline, and the results of the Keytruda combination were fantastic. He calls the future bright.
“I don't really care that much about the quarter... the excitement's just palpable. They've got 39 vaccines and drugs in the pipeline... The results that came out on the Keytruda combination were just fantastic.”at 28:49
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
AI can let drug companies skip phase one and two trials, cutting time and cost, which is positive for biotech.
Weiss says AI will let drug companies skip phase one and phase two trials and go straight to phase three human trials. That speeds time to market and produces large cost savings, since early trial phases are expensive. He calls it a positive for the IBB and biotech overall, and says investors are finding growth in biotech because they can't find it in some AI trades.
“with AI, you'll be able to help drug companies on their trials skip phase one and phase two, and perhaps just go to phase three human trials. So the speed to [market] will be greater.”at 29:19
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
AppleBullish
Apple's iPhone demand looks strong ahead of earnings, making it a port in the storm amid the tech selloff.
Apple won't report new-phone sales this quarter, but management will likely say demand is very strong. Lead times have shrunk: a month ago the wait was a month or a week, and he got his phone the next day. That makes Apple a refuge from the AI-driven tech selloff.
“But they will talk about how demand is very strong, even though the lead times, as is typical, have shrunk for the 18. ... But I think it's a port in the storm right here.”at 43:59
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
Diplomacy won't work without a subpar deal; attacking oil would be a market disaster.
Weiss sees the Middle East as the key factor for the market. Stocks are up today on hopes that diplomatic avenues are being pursued, but he argues those efforts have never paid off and never will unless a subpar deal is struck. He says that if the US goes after oil, as he says everyone expects, the market would face a disaster.
“And for me, a lot of it comes back to what's going to happen in The Middle East... diplomatic avenues are being pursued, but they've never paid off. They never will pay off unless we take a [subpar] deal. But if you go after oil, which everybody says they're gonna do, including The US, then you've got a disaster in the market.”at 4:43
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Stocks peak a year before capex; neoclouds face debt strain, and some won't survive.
Weiss argues stocks peak about a year before capex spending peaks. He says Musk is right about neoclouds: some, like Lambda with its strong balance sheet, will survive, but others will not. Neoclouds must take on debt, and with rates rising, financing is much tougher to get. Weak neoclouds inform valuations across the group, though he notes neocloud valuations are still ridiculous while mega caps are not.
“Stocks peak a year before capex spending peaks, not stops, but peaks. And when you're seeing like the neo clouds that I think Musk is absolutely dead on. Some will survive like a Lambda... but others won't.”at 5:22
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
AlphabetBullish
Alphabet is extremely cheap for its growth, AI use and cloud; a permanent compounder.
Weiss says Alphabet's stock has been destroyed and is the most unloved mega cap. He thinks it is extremely cheap given its growth, how it is employing AI, and its cloud business. He expects the stock should rise if it reports an in-line quarter, and calls it a permanent compounder. He says he holds full positions in the mega caps.
“That stock's been destroyed... So I think that's extremely cheap given their growth, given how they're employing AI, and given their cloud. ... I think the stock should go up. Look where it's come from. Right now, it's the most unloved of all the mega cap stocks.”at 6:19
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Likes Meta: strong quarter and capex guidance was effectively flat, not raised.
Weiss thought Meta had a really good quarter. He says the market commentary that Meta raised capex is wrong: Meta said capex would be flat, and it raised the midpoint of its range while the top end stayed the same. He says he still likes the mega caps and expects them to do well, and would buy Meta if it got crushed, even with full positions. He cannot say whether the next move will be lower.
“Now in terms of the others, I also like Meta quite a bit... I thought really good quarter. They tempered CapEx even though the market... say, oh, they increased CapEx. It's not true. ... They said it's gonna be flat.”at 6:27
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
Market isn't complacent: S&P near highs, but the average stock sits below its 200-day average.
Weiss says the S&P 500 is only about 2% off its all-time high, but it has not hit a new high in months. He looks under the surface: the average stock is trading near lows and is not even above its 200-day moving average. He concludes the underlying technicals show a correction has already happened, so there is no complacency in the market.
“I don't see the complacency in the market... We're only 2% off of an all time high on the S and P... if you take a look at the average stock... We're not even above the two hundred day moving average. So the technicals... don't show a market that's 2% off its high.”at 12:11
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
Enterprise AI adoption & AI software
AI usage is rising, notably in healthcare, sustaining the AI trade despite shallow-use reports.
Weiss says there are many conflicting reports, including Apollo's and Alphabet's, that describe AI use as shallow. That does not trouble him. He expects a major uptick in how AI is used, and says it is already happening predominantly in healthcare, where companies are using it. He thinks this usage sustains the AI trade.
“There are so many conflicting reports... They're saying, oh, it's so... You know, it's very shallow. That doesn't trouble me. You know, you're going to see a major uptick in how AI is used, and you're seeing it in health care predominantly. They're using it. So I think that sustains it.”at 24:50
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
Leidos HoldingsBullish
Picks Leidos: stock bounced off lows, still below highs, and the defense trade has room to run.
Weiss's final pick is Leidos. He says the stock has bounced off its lows but is still off its highs, leaving room to recover. He agrees the defense trade has legs to continue. The case is brief and rests mainly on the sector trend.
“I'm going with Leidos. The stocks had nice bounce off the lows, but still off the highs. I agree that the defense trade has got some legs to continue.”at 45:59
CNBC Halftime Report: The Investment Committee Prepares for a Pivotal Week 10/26/26 ·
NVIDIABullish
Nvidia at about 10x next year's EBITDA is preferable to pricier AI names like CoreWeave.
He values AI names on cash flow, looking at EBITDA multiples. Nvidia trades at about 10 times next year's EBITDA, while CoreWeave, Anthropic and OpenAI have no EBITDA multiple to anchor them. He argues the market is rationalizing toward quality names in the portfolio, so he would rather own Nvidia than CoreWeave.
“I also think there's been rationalization in terms of the quality of the names that you put in your portfolio. So do you want a core weave, or do you want an NVIDIA that's selling at 10 times next year's numbers”at 5:37
CNBC Halftime Report: Will the AI Trade Resume? The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/21/26 ·
Midterms won't clear risk; the Democratic House and Senate win is already priced in.
He disagrees that the midterms will be a clearing event for risk. The Democrats taking both the House and Senate is already a faded trade, and he sees that playing out in defense stocks. The bigger drivers for AI are how Anthropic does in its IPO, rates, and the circular funding and weaknesses in the sector.
“I don't think that you're going to see a clearing event with the elections... The election, if you look at Calhoun and the others, that's already a faded complete that the democrats are gonna take over both the house and the senate.”at 5:48
CNBC Halftime Report: Will the AI Trade Resume? The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/21/26 ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave has no EBITDA multiple to anchor value, so he avoids it.
He prefers to see cash flow and values companies on EBITDA multiples. CoreWeave has no EBITDA multiple, unlike Nvidia at about 10 times next year. He prefers to miss high-momentum hype and stick with what will endure over multiple cycles, so he is avoiding CoreWeave.
“I prefer to see cash flow. So I look at an EBITDA multiple... You don't have an EBITDA multiple on CoreWeave. You don't have one on Anthropic. You don't have one in OpenAI.”at 7:18
CNBC Halftime Report: Will the AI Trade Resume? The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/21/26 ·
AnthropicBearish
Anthropic's $750B funding need and lack of earnings make him avoid it.
Anthropic has no EBITDA multiple to value it. It has said it will need 750 billion dollars over the next few years to fund itself, which he sees as a reason to avoid it. He will watch how Anthropic does in its IPO, along with rates and circular funding, as key signals for the AI trade.
“What you do have is Anthropic saying we're gonna need 750,000,000,000 just over the next few years to fund. So I'm avoiding those.”at 7:37
CNBC Halftime Report: Will the AI Trade Resume? The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/21/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
AI capex will peak about a year out, and sovereign funding for it will dry up.
He sees the end of the spending cycle in capex a year out, when appetite will wane for companies that have to keep spending. Sovereign funds have been a primary lender and investor and have position limits, so that capital will dry up. Spending will peak like every other cycle, though infrastructure companies won't disappear. Markets historically discount a year ahead, so valuations will peak and come back down to earth.
“But when I see the end of the cycle in terms of growth in spending, in CapEx, and I see that a year out, right, that the appetite for it is going to wane for these companies that just have to spend and spend and spend.”at 10:05
CNBC Halftime Report: Will the AI Trade Resume? The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/21/26 ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Meta is a core holding; he expects a capex budget increase and a strong business narrative.
Meta is one of his largest positions and a core holding he is keeping, while trading around an excess position. He says what has driven the stock is capex budget rather than earnings or revenue. He wouldn't be surprised if Meta increases its capex budget, and he expects the narrative around the business to be very good.
“I wouldn't be surprised, let me put it this way, if they increase their capex budget. I would expect the narrative around how the business is doing to be very, very good.”at 19:44
CNBC Halftime Report: Will the AI Trade Resume? The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/21/26 ·
China's economy has underperformed for a long time, so it is better to avoid playing it.
Weiss says the Chinese economy is not doing well and has not been for a while, which makes it difficult to invest in China-linked exposure. He says he sold his Alibaba position for this reason, and that it is better to stay away from China for now.
“Basically, the Chinese economy is not doing well, hasn't been doing well for a while, so it's difficult to play on that. So it's just better to stay away.”at 41:17
CNBC Halftime Report: Will the AI Trade Resume? The Investment Committee Weighs in 10/21/26 ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave's leverage-based business model is a direct indictment; it was always a risky asset.
Steve argues CoreWeave was always a risky asset that is being stressed further by higher interest rates and bond yields. He points to its IPO pricing below the original 45-49 range, at 40, and to the stock falling sharply since. He says that decline is a direct indictment of a business model built on leverage.
“They were always risky assets... And I think that's a direct indictment of their business model that's built on leverage.”at 10:45
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
Micron TechnologyBearish
Micron's cheap multiple and big order book look like prior end-of-cycle setups; take-or-pay deals fail if spending peaks.
Steve says the setup is eerily familiar: Micron trades at about six times earnings with a large order book, the same claim made at prior cycle tops. He notes take-or-pay contracts cover about 40% of revenue, but argues those contracts mean nothing if spending peaks, as in every cycle. He says he has taken money off the table and sold his large Micron position.
“Their take or pay contracts for 40% of revenue... If the spending peaks, those take or pay contracts mean zero like every cycle.”at 16:06
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Meta is a product company that benefits from the AI capex it funds, so he added to the position.
Steve says he increased his Meta position after it fell $15, and it is now his second-largest holding. He argues Meta is ultimately a product company on the receiving side of the capex cycle, so it will benefit from its own spending through the products it offers the public. He says its balance sheet gives it a unique ability to keep spending and to expand into enterprise and cloud, and that founder-led management helps it move into new areas.
“Because I think Meta is a product company ultimately. So they'll benefit. They're on the other side of the CapEx cycle.”at 17:47
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
Dick's Sporting GoodsBullish
Dick's Sporting Goods is the ultimate consumer stock with a brand edge; he added heavily after its selloff.
Steve bought Dick's, saw it get crushed after earnings, and added significantly at lower prices, after which the stock recovered. He calls it the ultimate consumer stock and says it has an edge through its brand in the sporting goods space.
“I bought it, got crushed after the quarter, went down to [$121]. You know, I added significantly. It's [$144]. It's the ultimate consumer stock.”at 24:01
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
The Goldman Sachs GroupBullish
Goldman Sachs is a position levered to the AI trade, M&A pipeline and IPO pipeline.
Steve owns Goldman and says it is also levered to the AI trade, the M&A pipeline and the IPO pipeline. That gives it exposure beyond its core business to the deal activity he expects.
“Goldman Sachs, I own. Goldman is also levered to the AI trade and the M&A pipeline and the IPO pipeline.”at 24:50
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
UnitedHealth GroupBullish
UnitedHealthcare has moved up on strong quarterly execution and should keep rising.
UnitedHealthcare has already moved higher because it executed well in the quarter. Weiss thinks the stock will keep moving up, extending the momentum from that quarter's execution.
“UnitedHealthcare that's moved up since they execute well in the quarter, I think continues to move higher.”at 47:16
CNBC Halftime Report: Managing Risk in a Volatile Market 10/19/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Halftime Report · 4 episodes
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