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What podcasters are saying about US elections & politics
Summary
In the past 30 days, 56 speakers on 25 finance podcasts discussed US elections & politics in 87 views. Chorus has followed US elections & politics since September 23, 2026: 88 views from 57 speakers on 25 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Gautam Mukunda · 6
- Mike Wilson · 4
- Jessica Taylor · 4
- Quinn Thompson · 4
- Jennifer Lawless · 4
- Ariana Salvatore · 3
- Monica Guerra · 3
- Vincent Deluard · 3
- Chris Whalen · 3
- Peter Grandich · 2
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Natasha Sarin · Yale Law School / The Budget Lab at Yale
Quick affordability fixes like rent freezes won't solve structural housing and childcare costs.
Cost of living is top of mind for voters across parties, as it was in 2024 when Trump won on inflation. She is nervous about politicians promising quick fixes like cutting prices on day one or freezing rents. Housing, childcare and elder care are structural problems that need long-term policy solutions.
“I'm a little nervous about the idea that you have politicians who are trying to come up with quick fixes to affordability, things like cut prices on day one or rent freezes, when the reality is that things like housing, childcare, the cost of elder care in this country, all of these are structural issues...”at 31:58
Bloomberg Surveillance: Markets Price in Tech Spending and Midterm Elections ·
Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services
Elections matter for markets, but other factors matter more; tech has led under every recent administration.
Lerner says the midterm outcome is not zero for markets, but other factors matter more. He looked at the last four administrations and found the stock market had above-average performance under each. Technology was among the top-performing sectors in every administration because that is where the growth is. Energy and financials, which are more exposed to policy, had inconsistent returns. He also says conventional wisdom about how sectors and markets react to elections is often wrong.
“I wanna say it's zero. The way we would frame this, Brian, is elections matter, but other factors matter more.”at 10:17
CNBC Power Lunch: Alphabet AI Sell-Off, EQT-Range Deal and Big3’s Public Market Plans ·
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
A clear Democratic win would help risk assets; a contested or drawn-out election would hurt them.
Washington insiders say a big Democratic win would be liquidity-positive, because gridlock would mean horse-trading over spending with little actually cut. That would be bad for the dollar and good for gold and stocks. Uncertainty is the risk. If the result is contested or drags on, as serious people are discussing, that would be bad for risk assets.
“if you get some sort of big blue win, it's actually really good for liquidity because nothing will get done, and everything, it'll be a horse trading ... but if there's uncertainty around the election or if Trump contests the election ... that wouldn't be good for risk.”at 19:06
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Rick Wurster · The Charles Schwab Corporation
Midterm uncertainty is a short-lived market headwind; markets have risen after every midterm he cites.
Rick says the market does not like uncertainty and the midterms create some. He expects the market to get past it soon. He cites past midterms, where the market went up after the election cycle got through, in what he says is 19 of 19 cases. He argues the economy's strength is what has kept markets rising.
“The market doesn't love uncertainty, and and the midterms create uncertainty. But we'll get past that soon. And if you look at the past midterms, 19 of the last 19 midterms after we've got through them, the market's gone up.”at 12:55
Bloomberg Talks: Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster Talks Future of AI ·
Gary Cohn · IBM
Midterm outcome is nearly impossible to call, with polls and betting markets repeatedly wrong.
Cohn says polls were dead wrong in the last two elections, and betting markets were wrong on Israel and Brazil, and Trump-era polling has been wrong before. So he can't say what happens. Whatever the result, it will drive policy in the lame-duck session, with the debt ceiling and funding deadlines, and a possible Republican reconciliation package.
“If you look at the last two predictions of elections over the last week, the polls were wrong. They were just dead wrong.”at 19:07
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Chris Sununu · Airlines for America
Polls and prediction markets are unreliable; pollsters still behave like it's 2015.
Sununu argues prediction markets are worse than polls because the public feeds off what the media reports, which exacerbates the polls. He finds it most shocking that pollsters are still polling as they did in 2015, and he says no one has found a good way to get at how Americans decide.
“What the most shocking thing I find is that we're still polling like it's twenty fifteen.”at 36:06
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Gargi Chaudhuri · BlackRock
Markets have historically rallied after midterms; investors should keep politics out of portfolios.
Chaudhuri tells clients to keep politics out of their portfolios. She acknowledges volatility around the election, but says that looking at the 1970s to now, markets have rallied in the final quarter after midterms, in November and December. History is not a guarantee, but she says earnings season makes this a good time to own certain equities and the intermediate bond market.
“when we look from nineteen seventies to now... is coming out of midterms that last quarter November December... in the past we've seen that markets have rallied. History is no predictor”at 15:31
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 29th, 2026 ·
Libby Cantrill · PIMCO
Republicans are likely to lose the House; the Senate is possible but a hard hold, with 2026 a protest vote.
Cantrill says Republicans are capitulating on the House, with no one seriously talking about keeping it. The national environment is very bad for Republicans. She sees a path to keeping the Senate only with strong turnout in places like Iowa, Alaska and Texas. She advises clients not to read the 2026 results as a guide to 2028, since a Democratic win would be more a protest vote than an endorsement of their ideology.
“There's a real capitulation among Republicans about the house. I mean, no one really is talking about keeping the house... the national environment is just so bad right now for Republicans.”at 41:26
Bloomberg Surveillance: Outlook for Inflation, Oil, and Tech ·
Monica Guerra · Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Affordability is the defining midterm issue, leaving the incumbent party in a challenging environment.
Monica argues affordability has become the defining issue for voters this cycle. Her signal monitor tracks four indicators: the generic ballot, presidential approval, consumer sentiment and gasoline prices. Democrats lead the generic ballot by about eight points. Presidential approval is 38.8%, below the 40% reference point where the opposition tends to gain. October consumer sentiment is the lowest for any pre-midterm October in the University of Michigan survey's history. September gasoline prices were up 37.6% year over year. Persistent inflation, high borrowing costs and Iran-related energy pressure weigh on purchasing power. She notes these are directional indicators, not an outcome forecast.
“So taken together, these signals point to a challenging environment for the incumbent party, really driven by affordability.”at 1:28
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): Signals to Watch in the U.S. Midterms ·
Ariana Salvatore · Morgan Stanley
Midterms are unlikely to fundamentally change US policy direction, since market uncertainty has come from the executive branch.
Ariana's firm view is that the midterms won't fundamentally change the direction of US policy. The basis is that most policy uncertainty markets have faced since early 2025 has come from the executive branch rather than Congress. She expects tariffs, deregulation, immigration, geopolitics and export controls to remain important sources of policy uncertainty regardless of the election outcome.
“Because our view has been that the midterms are unlikely to fundamentally change the direction of US policy, and that's because a lot of the uncertainty that markets have dealt with since the beginning of 2025 has come from the executive branch rather than congress.”at 1:55
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): Signals to Watch in the U.S. Midterms ·
Monica Guerra · Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Assuming divided government means less policy volatility is the biggest risk for investors.
Monica argues that investors may underestimate policy volatility after the election. The common view is that divided government means gridlock, and gridlock brings clarity for markets. Ariana adds the caveat that oversight investigations and political scrutiny can rise even if Congress changes hands, and executive action can continue. That matters for technology and energy, where antitrust and deregulation are live issues. Monica treats assuming less volatility as the key mistake.
“I think the biggest risk is actually assuming that divided government automatically means less policy volatility.”at 6:28
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): Signals to Watch in the U.S. Midterms ·
Ariana Salvatore · Morgan Stanley
The election is a micro, not macro, catalyst; headline risk often won't change earnings or the macro outlook.
Ariana separates headline risk from real changes to earnings or the macro outlook. Not every political development will have a meaningful market impact. She therefore sees this election as more of a micro catalyst than a macro one. She adds that oversight investigations may follow a change in congressional control, but executive action can continue. That could matter at the margin for technology and energy, through the antitrust and deregulation angles already highlighted.
“But I'd also distinguish between headline risk and actual changes to earnings or the macro outlook. Not every political development is going to translate to a meaningful market impact, which is why we see this election as more of a micro than a macro catalyst.”at 7:08
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): Signals to Watch in the U.S. Midterms ·
Jeremy Zirin · UBS Asset Management
Midterms likely produce modest sector and company winners and losers, not a result that overwhelms markets.
Zirin argues elections matter for future policy but are rarely a good standalone timing tool, since fundamentals such as earnings, growth, inflation and rates matter more. The election matters more beneath the surface for themes like AI, where a Republican-held Senate would likely favor faster permitting, power generation and data center buildout, while a Democratic chamber could bring more scrutiny of electricity costs, privacy and environmental impact. The most likely outcome is a narrow Senate majority and divided government, which makes sweeping legislation difficult and limits outsized sector effects. Healthcare, energy and financials may see more volatility near the midterms.
“So my bottom line is the midterms could create some modest winners and losers at an industry or a company level, but I don't think that the result by itself is likely to overwhelm the broader earnings and macroeconomic backdrop.”at 13:15
UBS On-Air: House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management ·
Brian Gardner · Stifel Financial
Democrats' Senate odds are 40-45%, below the prediction markets' 60-65%; Republicans likely retain control.
Gardner thinks Democrats can win the Senate but is less bullish than the prediction markets, which put them at 60-65%. He puts it at 40-45%. He sees a pathway but notes Texas, Kansas and other states Trump won by double digits in 2024 are a very high hurdle. Democrats also need Maine, which he sees as hard to win. Losing Michigan would make the pathway very difficult. Republicans retain the Senate in his view.
“I do think they can win. I'm just not as optimistic or as bullish is a better word on Democratic chances than some others are. If you look at the prediction markets, they're in the 60, 65% range. I'm at the 40 to 45.”at 16:41
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28th, 2026 ·
Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
A Democratic House or Senate sweep means legislative standstill, which is worse for small business and may push Trump out.
Grandich says he's seen no legislation benefiting small business owners in decades, with policy favouring big technology companies and large corporations. He cites clients who are nearly half small business owners, facing rising costs, regulation and legal issues. He expects the midterms to be more negative for them, with more of a standstill in Washington. He also gives a personal opinion that if Democrats take both chambers, Trump won't finish his term because of infighting and revenge politics, and he expects Trump to leave with pardons.
“I think the election can only be more negative for them and more of a standstill in Washington”at 7:33
The David Lin Report: China's Tech Stocks Crash 40%: Is Wall Street Next? | David Woo ·
Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs
Midterm results are largely priced in; expects balanced, not absent, regulation over the next couple of years.
Kaplan says most business people and the markets have already priced in the midterm outcome. The part they do not know is whether regulation will change. He does not think a change in Congress will alter tariffs or immigration policy, but he expects a couple more years of balanced regulation. He argues that an economy needing more growth and highly leveraged to debt needs balanced regulation to help raise productivity.
“most business people and certainly the markets have already priced in the outcome... we're gonna have not no regulation, but balanced regulation.”at 9:20
Bloomberg Talks: Goldman Sachs Vice Chair Robert Kaplan Talks Fed Meeting ·
Gary Gensler · MIT Sloan School of Management
Presidents turn to foreign affairs in their last two years; Democrats may push affordability and AI safety.
Gensler says history shows that presidents in their last two years, and this president will have already had six years, tend to turn more to foreign affairs because they have less leverage with Congress. He expects Democrats in Congress to still try to get things done, focusing on affordability, housing and AI safety. The midterms are a week away, and he expects 15 to 20 presidential candidates to announce by early next year.
“History tells us that presidents tend in the last two years, and remember this president will have had six years already, will turn more to foreign affairs. They have less leverage with congress.”at 8:32
Bloomberg Talks: Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler Talks AI Boom & More ·
Mike Wilson · Morgan Stanley
Midterm election market impact is mainly uncertainty, which is largely priced in; legislation won't change much.
Wilson says the midterms matter for markets less through the outcome than through the anxiety leading up to them: the tension, the rhetoric, and the threats of dramatic action after the vote. That uncertainty has been a reason for recent market weakness, and most of it is now priced in. Once the event passes, markets usually realise nothing much has changed, because legislation after a midterm is unlikely to differ dramatically. Wholesale policy shifts tend to come with presidential elections, not midterms.
“Not so much who wins or the magnitude of the win, but just all the anxiety around the tension... So to me, it's the uncertainty factor.”at 3:32
Bloomberg Talks: Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson Talks Upcoming Fed Decision, Markets ·
Ariana Salvatore · Morgan Stanley
Midterm voter issues will not carry cleanly into the 2028 presidential race; the transmission channel changes.
Clients ask whether Democratic midterm outperformance predicts 2028. Salvatore says issues like affordability usually don't carry over cleanly. The channel shifts from one election to the next. In 2022 grocery prices drove voter sentiment, and this cycle gasoline prices are the mechanism.
“our view is effectively that the issues don't really carry over from one election to the next. And if they do, it's not in a very clean way.”at 40:47
CNBC Closing Bell: Markets Brace for the Fed as Earnings Roll In 10/27/26 ·
Mike Wilson · Morgan Stanley
Midterms are a near-term headwind, but stocks have risen over the following 6-12 months every time since 1950.
Wilson calls the midterms the first of several clearing events. He concedes they are typically a headwind for multiples and stocks, and that investors get nervous because the post-midterm outcome is unknown. He cites a historical pattern: 100% of the time since 1950, the market has gone up nicely over the next six or twelve months. He frames this as a potential catalyst after the election.
“Typically a headwind for for multiples and for stocks. People get nervous... But 100% of the time since 1950, the market goes up nicely over the next six or twelve months.”at 6:26
Mike Preston · New Harbor Financial Group
Market likely rallies after the midterms regardless of outcome, as uncertainty clears.
Mike says the midterm outcome could be part of why the market is uncertain now. He argues that once the election result is known, the market will probably like the outcome no matter what it is, because markets dislike uncertainty. That could set up the kind of pop he thinks may come.
“We've said on this program ... the market will probably like that no matter what the result is because the market doesn't like uncertainty.”at 1:06:53
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
A Democratic blue wave would gridlock Congress and block major fiscal policy for two years.
He expects a Democratic blue wave in the midterms, with Congress blocking Trump and Trump blowing up Congress. That makes any significant fiscal policy in the next two years nearly impossible. The tariff reversal, individual tax refunds and accelerated depreciation that propped up earnings will all go away, and the fiscal support already pulled forward will not return.
“It's impossible to see any sort of major fiscal policy passing in the next two years if we have, as I expected, blue wave”at 13:52
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Vincent Deluard · StoneX
The political pendulum is swinging back toward the left; Democrats likely to take the House and Senate.
Deluard argues that the left is not dead and that the strength of the right, the Trumpism movement, is overestimated. Populism feeds both the hard right and the hard left, and the Brazilian result suggests the global swing toward the far right is reversing. He expects the US midterms to confirm this shift, with Democrats winning the House and Senate. That divided government would then limit fiscal support and make a blame game over the economy likely.
“I think people kind of overestimate the strength of the right, the kind of Trumpism... maybe the Brazilian election is the signal that the pendulum is moving the other way, and we'll see the confirmation of the midterms in The US.”at 59:03
Monetary Matters: The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard | StoneX ·
Robert Kaplan · Goldman Sachs
Midterm outcome is priced in; the open question is whether Congress changes regulatory policy.
Kaplan says business people and markets have already priced in the midterm outcome. The unknown is whether a Congress change would alter regulation. He does not expect tariffs or immigration policy to change, and hopes for a couple more years of balanced regulation to support growth and productivity.
“So like a lot of things, most business people and certainly the markets have already priced in the outcome.”at 10:03
Bloomberg Surveillance: Previewing the Fed Meeting and AI IPOs ·
Mike Wilson · Morgan Stanley
Midterms will not change markets much; the pre-election uncertainty and anxiety has largely been priced.
Wilson says the market impact of the midterms is not about who wins or the size of the win, but the uncertainty and tension in the lead-up, which has weighed on markets for the last month. Most of this has been priced, and legislation is unlikely to change dramatically in a midterm. Elections are clearing events because nothing really changes once they pass.
“Not much. ... the markets tend to pre trade this just like any event ... So part of the reason why the markets have been unstable or weaker the last month or so is there is a lot of nervousness around this election.”at 37:11
Bloomberg Surveillance: Previewing the Fed Meeting and AI IPOs ·
Paul Donovan · UBS Global Wealth Management
Affordability sentiment polls are more political than economic and will likely prompt further policy pledges.
Political partisanship is extreme in the US and distorts sentiment survey data, denying it much economic use. Michigan poll data shows Republicans' affordability concerns penetrating partisan bias, with their inflation expectations the highest since Trump took office. Politicians pay attention to opinion polls, and the administration appears concerned about midterm results, judging by the promised bonus payments. Donovan concludes sentiment surveys may therefore produce further policy pledges even though they carry less economic relevance.
“The relevance of this data is perhaps more political than economic. ... Sentiment survey may therefore produce further policy pledges even if there is less economic relevance.”at 1:29
UBS On-Air: UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy, promises, and affordability' ·
Brett Rentmeester · WindRock Wealth Management
Midterms won't matter for the debt and entitlement problems, since no party has a fix.
Whichever party is in power faces the same crisis, and there is no resolve to live within means or correct anything. Consensus is that there will be no real government budget, health costs will balloon, and Social Security is on its last legs. He expects a radical intervention when something breaks. He also cites congressional ratings below one in four and young people's disaffection with the system as signs of institutional failure.
“So I don't know if it matters right now, the midterms per se, at least as it relates to this very large story.”at 16:06
Mike Wilson · Morgan Stanley
Midterm uncertainty is a clearing event; expect a possible downdraft, but post-midterm returns are historically strong.
The second clearing event is the midterm elections. Markets dislike uncertainty and this election has plenty, though a blue wave is no longer a surprise. The larger overhang is what may happen after the vote, including a possible renewed military escalation in Iran. He has no special edge in forecasting geopolitics, but such shocks often create buying opportunities, and post-midterm returns have historically been very strong. He would be ready to embrace a sharp downdraft in stocks around election day.
“I would be ready to embrace a sharp downdraft in stocks in the days and weeks around election day.”at 3:26
Thoughts on the Market (Morgan Stanley): The Next Stage of the Market Correction ·
Monica Guerra · Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Divided midterm government means little legislation passes, so markets should welcome gridlock despite headline volatility.
Guerra expects a Democratic Congress with a Republican president, who is likely to veto policy, to produce legislative stability. Investigations and hearings will generate headlines and some volatility, including sell-offs or rallies on White House posts, but she says these are pockets of volatility rather than a change in the trend. She argues that very little of substance will get done in the next two years, including AI and data-center legislation, which will be very hard to pass. So negative headlines do not necessarily mean negative fundamentals, and she expects the stock market to like the gridlock.
“Nothing's gonna happen for the next two years. Nothing's gonna happen. I mean, literally, legitimately, there's gonna investigate Trump... but nothing of substance is gonna get done. And the stock market will probably like that.”at 42:20
CNBC Power Lunch: Previewing Big Tech Earnings, Anthropic IPO Announcement, Countdown to Midterms 10/26/26 ·
Jessica Taylor · The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
Trump's drag and weak GOP incumbents are forcing Republicans to defend solid red Senate states like Mississippi and South Carolina.
Cook shifted Mississippi and South Carolina toward competitive status. In Mississippi, polls are closer and the national Republican super PAC is spending there. In South Carolina, the appointed senator is underperforming and struggling to raise money, and Democrat Annie Andrews is outspending her on air, so Republicans are sending in help. Republicans are also playing defense in double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. She sees this as a combination of a drag on Trump and weak incumbents.
“But the fact that they are trying to shore up these solid red states just tells you it's a combination, I think, of a drag on Trump and a combination of weak incumbents in both Mississippi and South Carolina”at 23:44
Bloomberg Surveillance: Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 26th, 2026 ·
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