Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 26th, 2026

Anthropic

Across the shows: 48 speakers in other episodes, 29 bullish and 38 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Noah Weisberger · BCA ResearchUncertain

  Anthropic's IPO is not a clearing event by itself; quarterly reports after listing matter more, and skipping listing would be negative.

  He sees an Anthropic IPO as a possible clearing event for the market but says a weak debut is normal for IPOs that bankers price well, so it is not very informative. What matters more is how the stock trades when Anthropic reports quarterly results. Investors will look at earnings breadth, who is buying, and what happens to token prices and volumes. Caveat: if Anthropic and OpenAI compete with open-source models, Anthropic's numbers may be bad for its own margins but good for the overall demand picture. If Anthropic does not come to market at all, he sees that as a pretty negative sign.

  “If the IPO struggles, if [Anthropic's] IPO struggles out of the gate, that's what IPOs do. They're priced well by the bankers. That's not what's gonna be interesting to me.”at 8:12

US elections & politics

• Jessica Taylor · The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

  Trump's drag and weak GOP incumbents are forcing Republicans to defend solid red Senate states like Mississippi and South Carolina.

  Cook shifted Mississippi and South Carolina toward competitive status. In Mississippi, polls are closer and the national Republican super PAC is spending there. In South Carolina, the appointed senator is underperforming and struggling to raise money, and Democrat Annie Andrews is outspending her on air, so Republicans are sending in help. Republicans are also playing defense in double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas. She sees this as a combination of a drag on Trump and weak incumbents.

  “But the fact that they are trying to shore up these solid red states just tells you it's a combination, I think, of a drag on Trump and a combination of weak incumbents in both Mississippi and South Carolina”at 23:44

• Jessica Taylor · The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

  Vivek Ramaswamy's Ohio ad hurt him; Cook moved the governor race to Lean Democrat, with Acton a slight favorite.

  The controversial ad broke through and is damaging because Ramaswamy already has an unlikable image and favorability problem. Running an ad like this does little to improve his own favorability. Despite hundreds of millions of dollars spent by his super PAC and the RGA, Acton's favorability has taken a hit but he still benefits. Cook moved the race from toss-up to Lean Democrat, with Acton a slight favorite, though Ohio could still be close.

  “I think that this is going to benefit Acton so much that we shifted our race on... Our race rating on Friday from toss-up to lean democrat”at 25:08

• Jessica Taylor · The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

  Reputable polls show consistent trends, so they can be trusted; rural polls may undersample Republicans.

  Republicans claim the polls are misleading, but she says high-quality polls show similar trajectories. Some polling firms are fake and should be dismissed. Cook's own polls with a bipartisan Democratic firm and a Republican firm found close races in Texas and Ohio, and Democrat Rob Sand was up 11 points in Iowa. She puts more weight on the trend across polls than on one poll. She acknowledges that rural areas such as Ohio, Iowa and Kansas may be undersampling Republicans.

  “What gives me confidence is that in high quality polling, we have seen trajectories that are pretty similar in their way.”at 27:06

US rates & the Fed

• Neil Dutta · Renaissance Macro Research

  Fed should hike now rather than skip; inflation forecasts keep being too optimistic, so a December hike is likely.

  He argues a hike this week makes sense from a risk-management perspective. Financial conditions have eased only slightly, with credit spreads widening a bit while equity prices remain buoyant. Data are still firm, and inflation is far from the 2% PCE goal and likely to stay above target through March. The Fed has revised its inflation estimates higher at every meeting since December of last year, so it has been too optimistic. Skipping and then hiking in December anyway means the odds are already effectively set. He cites Clarida's line that a move early is prudent even if not urgent.

  “from a risk management perspective it probably makes sense to raise rates ... this week.”at 14:48

• Neil Dutta · Renaissance Macro Research

  Warsh's forward guidance is flawed, offering vague price-stability goals without saying what he expects.

  He criticizes Fed Chair Warsh's communications, arguing that the current approach is forward guidance for others but not for Warsh himself. Warsh has given only a blunt form of guidance, that the committee will deliver price stability, defined as 2% PCE inflation. He says that approach is not sustainable and that Warsh will eventually have to say what he thinks. This makes it hard to know whether the vice chair and New York Fed president are speaking for the chair, so markets are left to guess at the reaction function.

  “this sort of speaks to some of the flaws in the... In his communications approach. I mean, it's sort of this forward guidance for thee, but not for me.”at 16:17

US stock market outlook

• Noah Weisberger · BCA Research

  Stay overweight tech but favor quality: hyperscalers and software outperform neoclouds; prefer large caps over high beta.

  BCA recommends staying overweight tech but going for quality within it. Neoclouds and core weaves are being punished, while hyperscalers and software are holding up better, and he sees that as a rational way to trade. He is not calling a broad risk-on rally and would not play it through small caps or high-beta names. He expects pain in lower-quality tech to remain isolated, and he would not be bothered if pressure on lower-quality parts of tech continued.

  “the hyperscalers in particular, software names are doing better. And I think that's probably a rational way to trade right here.”at 3:47

Credit markets

• Noah Weisberger · BCA Research

  Hyperscaler bonds are safe, higher in capital structure than neocloud debt; hyperscaler credit spreads offer attractive compensation.

  He prefers putting incremental money into hyperscaler credit rather than equity or Treasuries. Hyperscaler defaults are unlikely because the companies are massive with huge revenues. The spread widening reflects demand-driven tightening from planned capex, which is a choice companies make, not a supply constraint like 2008. Neoclouds have balance sheets closer to triple-B than double-A and have widened, but the hyperscalers have not. Equity and credit are preferred over Treasuries, and higher-quality credit is preferred to equity on a risk-adjusted basis.

  “I don't think there's a lot of default risk in some of these hyperscaler names. They're massive. The revenues are massive.”at 6:28

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Noah Weisberger · BCA Research

  Hyperscaler returns on equity are falling during the build-out; market will give time if revenue and margins grow.

  BCA wrote earlier in the year that hyperscaler return on equity was falling. The question is how long the market will tolerate that during a big build-out phase. The path back to higher ROE is growing revenues and expanding margins. Some of that is visible, but the market is questioning it. Token-price declines and the need for AI revenue to fund capex are key tests. He is less confident now than a few quarters ago that returns will justify the spending. The market has been rewarding high-ROIC tech companies over low-ROIC ones, which he would not fade.

  “We knew this is a big build out phase. The path back on a return on equity is by growing revenues and expanding margins.”at 8:41

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Noah Weisberger · BCA Research

  Tech valuations have compressed sharply on strong earnings, so the market is not toppy despite bubble fears.

  He argues tech valuations have fallen significantly over the last couple of months while earnings have been strong, so this is not a toppy market. The market now wants to see proof of returns, which he says is fair. Earnings growth of about 20% for some names is still a good number, and it is spread across the market rather than concentrated. He pushes back on the 'earnings bubble' label, noting that bubbles can last a long time and that the supply-curve argument supports current profits.

  “The one balancing factor I would say is that valuations have compressed pretty significantly over the last couple of months with earnings so strong. So this is not a toppy market.”at 9:39

AI chips & semiconductors

• Noah Weisberger · BCA Research

  Chipmakers face little earnings risk; revenues are strong and AI chip demand is holding up.

  Asked whether chip-sector earnings are at risk, he says no because revenues are strong and demand overwhelmingly remains. He says the chip trade is not an earnings bubble because the supply curve is vertical, so demand growth drops straight to profit for some of these companies. He doesn't think 30-40% earnings growth is needed, since 20% is a good number for names in the group.

  “I don't wanna say no, but, I mean, the revenues are strong and demand overwhelmingly remains.”at 10:17