Alphabet AI Sell-Off, EQT-Range Deal and Big3’s Public Market Plans

Alphabet

Across the shows: 34 speakers in other episodes, 24 bullish and 14 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Laura Martin · Needham & CompanyBullish

  Alphabet's TPU bundling gives pricing power; the sell-off overlooks its platform and compute strategy; $450 target.

  Alphabet is now selling its TPUs bundled with other Alphabet services as a system, so customers cannot buy a TPU alone. Martin argues this gives Alphabet pricing power on scarce compute. She also says Alphabet is building a platform rather than a product, which she sees as having more economic upside, and that an internal compute allocation layer will improve capital allocation. On the sell-off, she says the stock fell because search revenue growth (12%) missed and AI answers monetize below traditional search, but she expects Google Cloud, which grew 100% to about $30B in the quarter versus about $60B for search, to be bigger than search a year from now. She keeps a buy rating and a $450 price target, about 40% above the prior close.

  “The thing we like the most about the Alphabet earnings yesterday is their pivot on TPUs, which are their own sort of AI chips. They are now bundling them with other Alphabet services and selling them as a system. So you can't just buy a TPU anymore.”at 2:52

• Jay Peters · NewEdge WealthBullish

  Alphabet's core business is healthy and valuation reasonable; he'd buy the weakness despite an earlier trim.

  Peters says Alphabet's core operating business is still healthy, growing 40% year over year. Search is in transition as Alphabet works out how to monetize AI Mode, which he says shows good traction with a couple of billion daily users, and total queries hit a five-year high. He also points to a healthy cloud business where compute is scarce and unit economics are improving with more efficient compute. He considers valuations reasonable given earnings growth and scale. He trimmed Alphabet to a neutral weight earlier this year but says he would still buy on weakness and that the portfolio is hard to underweight.

  “the core operating business for Alphabet continues to look healthy, you know, 40% year over year growth.”at 8:15

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 46 speakers in other episodes, 39 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Laura Martin · Needham & CompanyBullish

  Nvidia is not suffering; demand for its chips far exceeds supply it can deliver.

  Martin argues that AI compute demand is far larger than available supply across the industry. She says Nvidia cannot keep up with its demand, and that Amazon and Alphabet have room to sell their own custom chips because everyone wants every chip. From this she concludes Nvidia is not suffering, and that Alphabet's share drop was driven by its search revenue miss rather than any problem with chip demand.

  “the answer is everybody is up against way too much demand for supply. So Nvidia can't keep up with its demand... So no. Nvidia is not suffering. It can't meet the demand it has.”at 4:14

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jay Peters · NewEdge WealthBullish

  Hewlett Packard Enterprise benefits from enterprises building private AI clouds; valuation is reasonable.

  Peters argues enterprise adoption will be key to the AI cycle over the next couple of years. HPE sells mainly hardware and software for building private clouds. He sees adoption trends plus a focus on AI safety and security pushing large companies to bring cloud networks in house, which HPE is positioned to serve. He calls the valuation reasonable at about 13 times earnings with a mid-single-digit free cash flow yield, and says the story is just getting started despite the stock being up strongly this year.

  “It's a reasonable valuation around 13 times earnings, sort of mid single digit free cash flow yield, so we think the story there is just getting started”at 9:40

Caterpillar

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tami Zakaria · JPMorganBullish

  Caterpillar's order growth will normalize, but capacity ramp for power equipment over several years supports a $1,100 target.

  Zakaria says Caterpillar's results were in line with guidance, but investors wanted a bigger beat because they doubt AI investment growth. She argues that orders growing about 60% a quarter on average over the past four quarters are bound to normalize given the company's size. The key is execution and ramping capacity, with management tripling engine capacity and more than doubling turbine capacity over the next several years. Backlog hit a record $78B. She keeps an overweight rating and $1,100 price target.

  “one needs to take into account the law of large numbers. A company of Caterpillar's size has been growing orders at a 60% clip on average over the past four quarters. So these order numbers would eventually normalize”at 23:16

Boot Barn Holdings

• Chris Teston · Acuitas InvestmentsBullish

  Boot Barn is a good small-cap pick: cheap valuation, solid earnings, store growth and buybacks.

  Boot Barn is a small-cap retailer (about $4B market cap) that Teston's firm holds in its portfolio, and its underlying managers also own it. He cites good valuations, good recent earnings, continued growth in its store base, and stores running more profitable than expected. He says the company is buying back stock, which shows management also sees the valuation gap. He presents it as a clear example of the broader small-cap opportunity that is being overlooked in favour of large-cap tech.

  “Boot Barn represents a lot of what we like about small cap, which is good valuations, great opportunities... They posted good earnings. They've been able to grow their store base. Stores have been more profitable than expected.”at 38:26

US stock market outlook

• Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services

  Market is rotating, not leaving; broadening supports stocks, and the third presidential year has historically been positive.

  Lerner says the market held up despite tech weakness because money is rotating rather than leaving. Last month only tech made a new high, but this month only tech and communication services are down, while the equal-weight index is at its highest since early September and financials, industrials and small caps are rising. He calls this a healthy underlying development. He also notes the S&P 500 has not been down on a total return basis in the third year of a presidential cycle since 1950, which, along with an economy that avoids recession in that year, gives him a reason to be positive into next year.

  “So to answer your question is what's keeping this market up is money is rotating as opposed to leaving the market. We think that's actually a healthy underlying development.”at 7:38

• Chris Teston · Acuitas Investments

  Small caps should keep leading: cheap valuations and higher forecast earnings than large caps, despite rate sensitivity.

  Small caps have led since the 2025 market bottom, rising about 60%, yet remain underrepresented in client portfolios because investors have crowded into large-cap technology names. Teston argues the valuation opportunity is still there. He says small caps can fall at first when rates rise, but that the story is earnings: forecast earnings are higher for small caps than for large caps, and small caps do not always lag in rising-rate environments. His firm's underlying managers hold small caps, which is the basis for its exposure.

  “small cap has led year to date. It's led notably since the market bottom in 2025... small caps up about 60% since then and has led the market, but still underrepresented in client portfolios.”at 39:13

US elections & politics

• Keith Lerner · Truist Advisory Services

  Elections matter for markets, but other factors matter more; tech has led under every recent administration.

  Lerner says the midterm outcome is not zero for markets, but other factors matter more. He looked at the last four administrations and found the stock market had above-average performance under each. Technology was among the top-performing sectors in every administration because that is where the growth is. Energy and financials, which are more exposed to policy, had inconsistent returns. He also says conventional wisdom about how sectors and markets react to elections is often wrong.

  “I wanna say it's zero. The way we would frame this, Brian, is elections matter, but other factors matter more.”at 10:17

Natural gas & LNG

• Toby Rice · EQT Corporation

  US gas at about $3 versus $30 abroad gives America an edge; unleashing LNG exports is needed for global energy security.

  Rice says international natural gas prices have risen from about $10 to over $30 per million BTU since the Middle East conflict cut about 20% of world LNG from the market. US prices are about $3, which he credits to American energy independence and gives American consumers a large economic advantage. He argues that America's energy security depends on global energy security, so the country needs to keep unleashing US LNG exports to supply the world while also supporting economic stability at home.

  “It's absolutely critical... We've seen international natural gas prices move from about $10 to now they're over $30 per million BTU... while prices internationally are $30 in The US, they're about $3.”at 19:43