Tech Earnings Reaction, Q3 All-America Survey, Hormuz Chokepoint Check 10/22/26

Meta Platforms

Across the shows: 30 speakers in other episodes, 32 bullish and 11 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Laura Martin · Needham & CompanyBearish

  Meta must issue equity and carries heavy off-balance-sheet debt; no reason to buy shares now.

  Martin says Meta filed a plan with its board that needs hundreds of billions of dollars for AI, and some of that will be equity, including a non-voting C-share split. She estimates $100B to $200B of equity over two years. Meta already has about $700B of off-balance-sheet debt on top of roughly $100B on balance sheet, so it is bumping against its investment-grade limits. Meta did not raise CapEx guidance and cost guidance, so she expects negative 2027 projections in the fourth-quarter report.

  “they needed hundreds of billions of dollars to fund their AI aspirations. Some of that is gonna have to be equity... So there's no reason to buy equity in the market. Just buy it when they do a huge deal.”at 17:21

• Laura Martin · Needham & CompanyBearish

  Meta was first to personal AI agents but won't win the agentic race due to low trust.

  Martin says useful personal agents need access to bank information, emails and browsing. Meta has monetized user data and privacy as a core business, so it is the least trusted company. Consumers would be more willing to hand sensitive access to Anthropic or Apple, which would make those agents more useful. She says Meta was first to market, but does not think it will win the personal agentic race. Muse has 10 million downloads and 2.5 million users, but no associated revenue.

  “because Meta has sold your advertising as data and monetized your privacy as a core business, it is the least trusted... So I do not think Meta will win the personal agentic race. I just think it was first.”at 19:30

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 28 speakers in other episodes, 24 bullish and 10 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Brian Levitt · InvescoBullish

  Nvidia is quality, trading at reasonable valuations; the selloff does not mark a bubble's end.

  Levitt says there are parts of AI that are quality and names the hyperscalers and Nvidia as quality businesses. He argues the investors who are concerned about the level of AI investment are not seeing a bubble or mania, because these companies trade at quite reasonable valuations. He sees a long-term growth trajectory, with headline-driven pullbacks along the way.

  “There's definitely parts of AI that are quality. I would still look at the hyperscaler businesses. I would still look at a company like NVIDIA as quality.”at 7:07

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 12 speakers in other episodes, 8 bullish and 3 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Laura Martin · Needham & CompanyBullish

  Amazon's demand-backed capex messaging wins Wall Street funding support more than Meta's.

  Martin says Amazon's CEO keeps raising capital spending, for example by $20B in a quarter, while saying the demand behind it can guarantee a positive return on capital. She argues Wall Street is much more willing to fund that message than Zuckerberg's, which says Meta must invest hundreds of billions without knowing how it will monetize.

  “Every time the CEO of Amazon comes out, he says, I'm raising capital spending by 20,000,000,000 this quarter because I have demand that I can guarantee a positive return on capital.”at 22:18

The TJX Companies

• Matt Powers · Powers Advisory GroupBullish

  TJX is a buy: four straight beats, double-digit growth ahead, and insulated from a consumer slowdown.

  TJX has beaten earnings four quarters straight and is looking at double-digit earnings growth into next year. The stock has run up about 15 to 16% over the past month. As an off-price retailer it captures trade-down traffic if consumer spending slows, so it is insulated whichever way the consumer goes.

  “They beat earnings the past four quarters straight, and they're looking at double digit earnings growth, moving into next year. But they're kinda insulated here regardless of what direction we go with the consumer.”at 43:15

Prologis

• Matt Powers · Powers Advisory GroupBullish

  Prologis is a buy: beat both lines, sold off on rate fears, and trades about 20% below its start-of-year level.

  Prologis, the largest industrial REIT in the world, beat on both top and bottom lines last week. The stock is off its July highs mainly on macro concerns about 10-year yields. It has pulled back on some development, which Powers doesn't see as a flaw. It trades at 41 times forward earnings, about 20% below where it started the year, which gives an entry point for a prudently run dividend grower.

  “It's off mainly macro concerns, the ten year rates. They've pulled back on some of their development, but does not make them a bad company.”at 43:42

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 38 speakers in other episodes, 9 bullish and 30 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jay Woods · Freedom Capital MarketsBearish

  CoreWeave is a worry given its bond and debt issuance; too technically unclear to buy.

  CoreWeave is the name that most worries Woods, and it has accelerated fear in the market because of its bonds and debt issuance. Technically there isn't enough information to assess it, so he wouldn't venture to touch it. The debt-financed nature of the AI infrastructure buildout is the source of the concern.

  “the [CoreWeave] is the one you worry about, and that is what's really accelerated some of the fear in this market because of the bonds and the debt issuance. So [CoreWeave] is one I wouldn't venture to touch.”at 46:24

Caterpillar

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jay Woods · Freedom Capital MarketsBullish

  Caterpillar's fundamentals are intact despite the technical breakdown, and Woods is already building a position.

  Woods is concerned about the technical breakdown in Caterpillar. Fundamentally, though, the story hasn't changed much and the earnings are still there, so he sees opportunity. He has already started buying into the position and is feeling the pain as the longer-term uptrend broke down. He believes it is a place to put money to work over time.

  “I've already limped into that trade, and I'm feeling it a little bit as it broke down that longer term uptrend, but I still believe over time, we're gonna look back and say, this is where we wanna put money to work.”at 46:55

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Brian Levitt · Invesco

  AI demand is parabolic against supply constraints; this is digestion, not the end of the AI trade.

  Levitt argues the selloff is investors being discerning about the level of AI investment, not the end of the AI trade. He points to strong revenue and usage at Meta, Anthropic and OpenAI, and says demand is going parabolic while supply is still constrained. He calls today a moment of digestion, expects demand and supply to balance out around 2027 or 2028, and says the headline-driven neocloud selloff does not signal the end of a bubble.

  “The demand is actually seems to be going parabolic at a time when we still have the supply constraints. I would view this as a moment of digestion”at 8:22

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  Local data center opposition is broad; the industry has lost the thread, though some states will host them.

  Liesman cites a CNBC survey in which 63% of registered voters would oppose a data center within 10 miles of their home. He argues the industry lost the thread because approvals happen quietly at county commissions, so residents only learn of them after the fact and cannot respond in time. He says states with energy surplus, such as some in the former Confederacy, may recruit data centers, and that concerns about electricity, water and noise can be overcome.

  “I think the AI industry lost the thread on this... I think that there are places that will accept them... These are things that can be overcome and are overcoming.”at 29:12

US Treasuries & yields

• Will McGough · Prime Capital Financial

  Hyperscaler debt issuance pushed Treasury yields higher, and high yields offer a strong income case.

  McGough attributes the rise in ten-year yields to heavy hyperscaler debt issuance over the summer and into the fall. Some of that pressure has since eased, but higher oil prices keep inflation elevated. He calls the current income environment probably the best in a generation, so he would own the rate environment as ballast against equity volatility and diversify away from AI.

  “The hyperscalers used a lot of debt over the summer and into the fall, put pressure on treasury rates higher.”at 9:00

• Brian Levitt · Invesco

  Yields rose on better economic activity, not on inflation expectations or debt supply.

  Levitt says the move higher in rates reflected better economic activity. Inflation expectations barely budged, so he rejects the idea of a debt-supply or bond-vigilante story. The dollar was strong throughout, which he reads as a good economic backdrop. He sees the later flight to quality as a response to concerns, and says the bond market had become oversold on growth expectations.

  “The move higher was better economic activity. Inflation expectations barely budged.”at 9:42

US growth & recession risk

• Will McGough · Prime Capital Financial

  The economy is not slowing; economically sensitive stocks at record highs contradict slowdown fears.

  McGough points to record or multi-year highs in payroll, card-network, Amex, Visa, Best Buy and travel stocks, which he reads as economically sensitive names signalling growth. He says the economy is growing on a nominal basis and that inflation rolling over turns that into real growth.

  “None of that sounds like a slowing economy if the economically sensitive stocks are hitting record highs. The economy is not slowing.”at 10:52

• Brian Levitt · Invesco

  Consumption is moderating among lower-income households and ISM has eased, though not a massive slowdown.

  Levitt says consumption is moderating in the lower income quintiles and that the ISM Purchasing Managers Index is down modestly since July. He cites $4.25 to $4.50 gasoline as a drag that slows the economy. He stresses this is not a massive slowdown, so the bond market had become oversold on growth expectations.

  “If you look at the lower income quintiles and you look at consumption, it is moderating. If you look at the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, down modestly since July.”at 11:08

Middle East & Iran

• Matt Smith · Kpler

  Gulf crude exports are recovering via convoys; volume offsets attack risk, flowing mainly to Asia.

  Smith says Gulf flows are strong, and the seven-day average is lifted by large VLCC loadings on some days, with more than 20 million barrels passing on some days. Convoys make daily numbers volatile, but Red Sea loadings have also picked up, and together these push flows above pre-conflict levels. Shipping costs are over $1 million a day depending on route, and Sinocor and national oil companies are running high-risk, high-reward cargoes. Operators are playing a game of percentages: sending 10 tankers instead of five with a 10% chance of one being hit still delivers more volume. The barrels are going mostly to Asia.

  “And so if you're taking through 10 tankers rather than five and there's a 10% likelihood of one of them getting hit, you're still getting more volumes out.”at 35:21

• Matt Smith · Kpler

  Iran will keep escalating against Gulf shipping and energy assets as pressure mounts before the midterms.

  Iran's response to mounting pressure is scorched-earth escalation, so the worse things get for it, the more it leans in. Midterm elections are twelve days away and Iran is agitating. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf were hit that day, and the Houthis are targeting Saudi energy infrastructure and airports. Smith expects the next twelve days to be a wild ride, with the US administration's post-midterm decision the key unknown.

  “The worst things get for them, the more they're gonna lean into that. We've got the midterm elections coming up in twelve days here.”at 38:18

Oil & fuels

• Matt Smith · Kpler

  Post-Hormuz supply surge from UAE and OPEC unwinding cuts could weigh on oil; current prices carry risk premium.

  Once the Hormuz situation is resolved, a large amount of additional supply should return to the market. The UAE, which has left OPEC, could add around 800,000 barrels a day of production next year. OPEC has unwound production cuts it could not use, and non-OPEC supply is also coming. Current prices are pushed higher by a large risk premium, so the supply overhang is the eventual downside.

  “not just from someone like UAE who has left OPEC. They could be up like 800,000 barrels a day of production next year. You've got OPEC that has unwound production cuts when they haven't been able to get the barrels out.”at 36:52

• Matt Smith · Kpler

  Chinese crude buying is opportunistic, not a broad restocking push that would lift prices toward $130-140.

  Chinese imports are picking up, with many cargoes from countries shipping crude to China directly rather than through ship-to-ship transfers. Smith describes these as opportunistic purchases. China is not charging back into the market by any means, and it is not buying at prices of $130 to $140.

  “So we are seeing those Chinese imports picking up, but these are opportunistic purchases. It's not like China is charging back into the market by any means to be buying prices at 130, $140 here.”at 37:51

US stock market outlook

• Matt Powers · Powers Advisory Group

  S&P 500 flat next year, but most components outperform as five stocks drive nearly all returns.

  Five stocks have made up over 90% of S&P returns since mid-year. A third of stocks are in drawdowns of more than 20%, and close to 40% are down this year, even though the index is near all-time highs. Powers expects the index itself to stay roughly flat into next year while a large share of components outperform, so returns will come from owning the overlooked group.

  “but you'll see a large share of index components outperforming. Here's why... Here's the numbers. So five stocks make up over 90% of the returns in the S and P since the middle of the year.”at 42:24

• Jay Woods · Freedom Capital Markets

  Market should end the year stronger once the election passes and the AI pause lifts, with money rotating back into tech.

  Woods argues that the election rhetoric and both sides agreeing that the AI story may be paused are weighing on tech. Once the election is final, the market should be set up to end the year much stronger than now. Rotation into beaten-down staples, utilities and healthcare, led by names like McDonald's, Nike and Pepsi, is seen as relief rallies that won't carry the market much higher, while tech stocks offer the opportunity.

  “the fact that both sides agree that this AI story may be put on pause. Once we get through this narrative and get through the election, I believe we will be set up to end this year much stronger than where we are right now.”at 46:55

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Will McGough · Prime Capital Financial

  AI bubble is openly acknowledged, so investors should plan to diversify away from AI.

  McGough calls the current situation the most honest AI bubble in history. Because everyone knows it is a bubble, investors can plan for it. He says his firm's advisors and clients can build prudent strategies to diversify away from AI, and he is finishing a 2027-and-beyond playbook on diversifying. He notes breadth is positive today, which shows how narrow the market has been on the way up.

  “When everybody knows it's a bubble, that means you can plan for it.”at 5:01

Shipping, trucking & logistics

• Matt Smith · Kpler

  Ship owners will keep running Hormuz for the cash, so tanker traffic won't collapse even as tensions rise.

  Smith disagrees with the view that ship owners will flee the Gulf if conflict resumes. He sees risk-reward working in favour of running the strait: the financial benefit is so large that owners are willing to take the risk. Ship owners are therefore likely to keep moving ships through the region even with rising danger.

  “I don't think we do. I think it's the opposite. I think it's that risk reward that we're seeing exactly happening now that they're just willing to go for it because there's so much benefit in terms of cash.”at 39:34

AI chips & semiconductors

• Jay Woods · Freedom Capital Markets

  Chip stocks are near a washout; expect a flush over two to three days before oversold levels and the 200-day average test.

  The semiconductor index is down about 5% and could flush out over the next two to three days. Oversold conditions have not been reached and the 200-day moving average has not been tested. Nvidia is under less pressure than Lam Research and Broadcom, which are breaking down technically. Fundamentals in these names remain strong even as the technicals look poor, so Woods wants levels and a shopping list ready.

  “I think we're on the verge of a washout in this tech trade. ... It could, over the next two to three days, really flush out. We haven't gotten to serious oversold conditions. We haven't tested that two hundred day moving average.”at 44:56