Tech Earnings Season, SpaceX Targeting Telecoms, CME Group CEO Interview 10/21/26

Western Digital

• Wamsi Mohan · BofA SecuritiesBullish

  Western Digital's AI-driven results will beat, and its recent pullback is an entry point.

  Bottom-up analysis shows units and pricing for these businesses tracking better than expected, so he expects a very solid earnings season and strong upward estimate revisions. He views the tactical pullback in AI-centric stocks, driven by neocloud concerns, as an entry point. He sees estimates about 20-30% above consensus through 2028, and with multiple re-rating this could mean 50%+ upside.

  “when you look at where units are tracking, where pricing is tracking, those are tracking better than expected. So we actually expect a very solid earnings season from the likes of Western Digital”at 8:12

International Business Machines

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Wamsi Mohan · BofA SecuritiesBullish

  IBM should beat this quarter after slipped deals close, and land at the high end of its annual guidance.

  Last quarter's weakness came from deals slipping, and a third of those deals had already closed earlier this quarter, with more closing. He expects IBM to beat slightly on top and bottom line and come toward the high end of its annual guidance, which would imply a very strong fourth quarter.

  “we think that we'll hear from the company saying that a lot of those deals that were slipped last quarter are closing. We've already heard that a third of them had closed earlier in the quarter.”at 9:05

Seagate Technology Holdings

• Wamsi Mohan · BofA SecuritiesBullish

  Seagate's estimates look 20-30% too low through 2028, so the stock has large upside.

  He argues Seagate's estimates through 2028 sit about 20-30% above consensus, and the current multiple contraction could re-rate the stock. Together this implies as much as 50%+ upside, with upward revisions expected into next year.

  “we're about 20 to 30% higher than consensus on names like Western Digital and Seagate when you stretch out to 2028. So that along with some multiple rerating from the contraction that we just got would mean that you could have as much as 50% plus upside.”at 10:12

Space Exploration Technologies

Across the shows: 22 speakers in other episodes, 16 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Walter Piecyk · LightShed PartnersBullish

  SpaceX's plan to take Starlink into wireless is gaining credibility as its terrestrial network is built.

  Musk's comments were long dismissed, but building a terrestrial network and unveiling more of the plan give the wireless ambitions more credibility. Earlier doubts about femtocells and spectrum are less relevant now. The service is expected around 2028-2029, so the outcome is still years away.

  “in part, it's the building of a terrestrial network that provides more credibility to the plans... as SpaceX unveils more and more of the plan... it just adds more credibility.”at 16:37

AT&T

• Walter Piecyk · LightShed PartnersBullish

  AT&T's share price is undervalued, with EBITDA growing above inflation and buybacks supporting it.

  At around $21 a share, AT&T has EBITDA growing about 5%, which is strong for a telco and finally above the inflation rate. Management can buy back stock. Its fiber investment and bundling offer differentiation against satellite and fixed wireless, so it should keep executing despite volatility from the SpaceX threat.

  “your EBITDA now growing 5%... which is not a bad EBITDA for a telco, finally above the inflation rate, right, you just buy stock back... you just have to kinda keep doing your thing, and believing in how you are differentiated.”at 18:05

Apple

Across the shows: 6 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Walter Piecyk · LightShed PartnersBearish

  Apple's iPhone volumes are weak, and AI devices could eventually threaten the phone's central role.

  Apple keeps raising phone prices, and carriers have cut trade-in values and subsidies, which strains consumers. Phone volumes are very low, and the $2,000 foldable is likely to sell in low volume. AI devices from OpenAI, Anthropic or others could change how people use devices. The iPhone still drives most of Apple's revenue, but the new CEO will need new products.

  “two of the three telcos have pulled back on their trade in values, pulled back on the subsidies... what we've seen, initially at least, is that people just aren't buying the phones. The volumes in the market are very low.”at 20:40

Oil & fuels

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  Oil remains the market's main driver, with its negative correlation to stocks near a three-decade extreme.

  Rolling 60- and 90-day correlations between oil prices and the stock market have grown more negative and are near their worst in about three decades, with bonds also trading tightly with oil. He concludes that energy prices still drive markets.

  “you still have a really sharply negative correlation between oil prices and the stock market. And that's actually continued to get worse depending on the time frame you're using... So oil is still very much in the driver's seat.”at 2:54

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  A sustained return of Brent crude to its pre-February average looks hard because of supply constraints.

  He says a drop in oil would mechanically help equities by lowering yields, but the size and level of any decline is the trouble. He thinks it is still hard to bring Brent back to its pre-February average on a sustained basis because of supply factors.

  “I think it's still hard to get to... that thesis of us going back to what... the pre February average was. There's just a lot that's sort of standing in the way from a supply standpoint to get at least Brent crude back to that level, at least on a sustained basis.”at 4:21

US deficit & government debt

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  US budget dynamics resemble France's, so fiscal strain will eventually push up yields as well.

  Without a reserve currency, resisting fiscal reform while running a large budget hole does not work over time, and France shows this. He argues the US and the developed world face similar budget and yield dynamics, so the same pressure applies.

  “that just won't work at some point to the extent that you're in that kind of a budget hole... we have similar dynamics in The US and across the developed world when it comes to budgets and when it comes to yields.”at 7:15

• Terry Duffy · CME Group

  US debt above $40 trillion and $2 trillion annual deficits are unsustainable and must be brought under control.

  Duffy cites more than $40 trillion of US debt and a 10-year yield above 5%, which he says is costing American consumers more. He points to a deficit of about $2 trillion a year and says this is not sustainable for any economy. He says everyone talks about getting it under control, but the debt keeps rising exponentially each month and year. He argues debt levels need to be brought under control in the US as well as in France.

  “But we're sitting over $40,000,000,000,000 of debt. Our [10-year] tenure is sitting over 5% right now. ... And we're operating 2,000,000,000,000 a year deficit spends, and that is not sustainable for any economy around the world.”at 38:10

Asset managers, brokers & exchanges

• Terry Duffy · CME Group

  Financial product innovation is outpacing regulation, and unvetted CFTC self-certifications risk manipulation.

  Over 4,000 self-certifications have been filed with the CFTC without any contracts being stayed or upheld. They cannot all be legitimate and some are susceptible to manipulation, which is a problem for participants. Overseas products are levered up to 250 times, which US participants do not want. Innovation is only good if it does not come at the cost of efficiency and credibility.

  “you gotta be careful not to have innovation for the sake of innovation without regulation... We're seeing over 4,000 self certifications going into the CFTC without any of those contracts being stayed or upheld. So that's a problem.”at 34:24

• Terry Duffy · CME Group

  24/7 trading is inevitable, but it requires banks and infrastructure to operate around the clock first.

  Duffy believes around-the-clock trading is inevitable and that markets will move there. He argues it needs supporting infrastructure, specifically a banking system that also operates 24/7. As evidence, CME can pre-fund small crypto, gold and silver contracts on a Friday, but nobody can pre-fund the $76 trillion US equity market. He concludes that if US markets want to stay competitive, the banking system and government need 24/7 infrastructure in place as well.

  “I really believe that twenty four seven trading is inevitable. ... But I can't pre fund $76,000,000,000,000 US equity market, nor can anybody else.”at 39:10

Consumer & retail

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  Consumers are not pulling back yet, but treating high energy prices as permanent would be a bigger economic risk.

  The latest retail sales report may show early effects of high energy prices, but spending is not decisively falling. Labor market strength is still supporting spending. The risk grows as holiday season approaches and households start to view energy prices as permanent.

  “Not decisively pulling back, in terms of not spending, but I think the strength of the labor market, is still a support there... people start to treat some of these energy prices, you know, as permanent. That to me, I think, is a much bigger story for the economy.”at 2:54

US stock market outlook

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  Market breadth is healing under the surface, a more important story than index moves.

  The Russell 2000 fell into correction, and its drawdown gap versus the S&P 500 was the widest since late 2024 and late 2021. Small caps and banks have recently been recovering, and falling volatility in rates (the MOVE index compressing) is the bigger market story.

  “Russell two thousand went into correction territory. You haven't seen that kind of split since late twenty twenty four... So that to me, I think, is the more important market story where under the surface of the indexes, seeing a lot of these wounds sort of heal.”at 5:16

US Treasuries & yields

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  The 10-year yield may keep rising, since yields have historically peaked near the end of hiking cycles.

  Looking at past Fed hiking cycles, the [ten-year] yield has tended to peak near the end of the cycle rather than at its start, which suggests room to move a bit higher. Nominal US growth also supports yields at elevated levels. He does not see current levels as horrible but says the adjustment has been large.

  “at least for the [ten-year], it has tended to peak closer to the end of a hiking cycle as opposed to right at the beginning. Maybe that gives you some more room to move a little bit higher, at least stay around these levels.”at 6:06

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Wamsi Mohan · BofA Securities

  Token-generation demand keeps the AI hardware pipeline robust, with estimate upgrades continuing into next year.

  He argues the AI trade is about generating tokens, which requires semiconductor and hardware infrastructure. Unprecedented token growth creates a robust demand pipeline for hardware companies, which underpins his expectation of upward estimate revisions well into next year.

  “the AI trade is really about generating tokens, well, what is used to generate tokens? It's the hardware infrastructure... There was just absolutely unprecedented, very strong demand for token growth.”at 10:37

Earnings & corporate profits

• Kevin Gordon · Charles Schwab (Schwab Center for Financial Research)

  Forward earnings growth near 30% is unprecedented outside a crisis, so a wobble is likely once growth crests.

  Forward twelve-month earnings growth is close to 30% this year, and the base effect is not negative. Growth at this level without a crisis has not been seen in about 30 years of forward data. Once it crests, a wobble is likely, though he doesn't see a bear market. He notes the Nasdaq's flat five-month performance is consistent with a top-decile growth phase, and the market has priced in much of the good news.

  “your base effect in year over year terms is not negative... Those kinds of estimates outside of a crisis is really something you've never seen at least in the past thirty years of earnings data.”at 11:40

Telecom & connectivity

• Walter Piecyk · LightShed Partners

  Cable broadband is losing customers to wireless, satellite and Amazon, and cable firms handle competition poorly.

  Cable companies have a poor track record against competition. They downplayed fixed wireless and AT&T's fiber investment, and they are now suffering customer losses. Amazon may be a bigger risk to cable than SpaceX because it can add broadband competition, while SpaceX builds a terrestrial network aimed at the telcos.

  “they aren't really known for being able to handle competition. They downplayed when the wireless companies came into the market with fixed wireless... now you look at how the cables companies are suffering with their inability to stop customer losses.”at 19:00

Stablecoins & crypto policy

• Terry Duffy · CME Group

  Offshore crypto perpetuals at up to 250x leverage are dangerous and need binding leverage rules, not voluntary caps.

  Duffy argues that offshore perpetual products are levered up to 250 times, which he calls extraordinary for the risk of any product, and that US participants should not want that. He says new entrants promising to cap their leverage are offering only words, since no agency or legislative body has issued rulemaking on leverage. He sees this as a big deal that could be very disruptive to the financial system and put other people at risk. He also explains that a perpetual's funding rate ties the market to spot, that payments flow between longs and shorts, and that this is the definition of a swap. He adds that most of these products are basically retail products, while CME is 94% institutional.

  “There's products overseas right now that are levered up 250 times. ... Now some of these new entrants say that they'll cap their leverage exposures, but those are just words. I haven't seen anything come out on a rule making”at 35:53