Previewing Big Tech Earnings, Anthropic IPO Announcement, Countdown to Midterms 10/26/26

Anthropic

Across the shows: 52 speakers in other episodes, 39 bullish and 39 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Leslie Picker · CNBCBullish

  Anthropic's revenue per employee, up from about $1M, shows real AI-driven personnel efficiency.

  Picker highlights the filing's figures: about 5,300 employees and trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.6 million per employee, up from about $1 million a year earlier. Personnel costs were about $3.15 billion through June 30, roughly $600,000 per employee, a large gap versus revenue. She says this shows real efficiency, and that AI talent is highly compensated because of scarcity. She also notes the broader labor implications, since AI is changing personnel needs across the economy.

  “this is one company that's obviously demonstrated real efficiency as it pertains to personnel and we know that in an AI, personnel are very highly compensated to do the work that they do because there is such a scarcity there.”at 24:56

• Dan IvesBullish

  Anthropic IPO is bullish for tech; $1.5-1.7T valuation digestible, above $2T investors would push back.

  Ives sees Anthropic going public as bullish for broader tech and a foundational piece of the AI revolution. He says valuations around $1.5 to $1.7 trillion are very digestible for investors, but that a valuation significantly above $2 trillion is where most investors would push back. He frames the decision around what the company will deliver over the next six to twelve months and longer-term fundamentals, similar to SpaceX, where an initial pullback after listing is normal.

  “...these are longer term stories they play out, but Anthropic going public is bullish for broader tech. It's a foundational piece of the AI revolution.”at 34:57

CoreWeave

Across the shows: 50 speakers in other episodes, 12 bullish and 45 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Dan IvesUncertain

  CoreWeave's execution over the next 3-9 months will decide its success; not all neoclouds are doomed.

  Ives says neoclouds should not be painted with one brush. Winners will be those able to raise capital against backlog at points where they can build a business that could ultimately be profitable. Some will be left without a chair in the game of musical chairs. For CoreWeave specifically, he says its execution over the next three, six and nine months will dictate its future success. He contrasts this with the critical view from Gil Luria and says the whole AI trade should not be dismissed.

  “my view there is like [CoreWeave's] execution over the next three, six, nine months will dictate their future success.”at 32:13

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Dan Ives

  Hyperscaler capex spending keeps flowing, with a 5-6x multiplier across tech; buildout is not slowing.

  Ives expects roughly 800 to 1,000 new data centers to be built over the next 12 to 18 months. He acknowledges that perhaps 5% to 8% of them may not happen, and that some neoclouds will face harder capital scarcity. He argues that each dollar of capex generates a 5-to-6 dollar multiplier across the rest of tech, and that the broader build-out of roughly $3 to $4 trillion is happening and is not slowing. He pushes back on doomsday narratives and says the hyperscale AI arms race continues.

  “But the reality is for every dollar spent on CapEx, there's a 5 to $6 multiplier across the rest of tech. And that continues to be our view.”at 30:52

• Dan Ives

  Political backlash against data centers and big tech is the biggest AI risk, not capital shortage.

  Ives argues the biggest risk to AI is political rather than capital or use cases. He cites grandstanding and narratives created by big tech, including the 'black eye' moments it has produced. Going into the midterms, he sees nervousness that could mean an incremental 5% to 10% of data centers never get built, depending on the election outcomes next week. He still believes this won't stop the broader $3 to $4 trillion of spending, and warns that every data center voted down means China wins.

  “Well, we've said the biggest risk to AI is not about capital, the use cases, the fundamental sort of the AI revolution. It is the political sort of environment in terms of the grandstanding as well as a lot of the narratives that have been created by big tech.”at 33:15

• Monica Guerra · Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

  Local opposition to data centers smooths capex over a longer runway rather than killing the buildout.

  Guerra argues that opposition to data centers is more likely to be good for the buildout over the long run than harmful. Moratoriums rather than outright bans would spread out capex instead of producing a boom-bust cycle. Local governments would then have more interplay with the private sector and an incentive to back capex, through grid improvements, offsets, or direct subsidies on electricity bills. The result is a slower but longer runway, with less enthusiasm but still a build-out. She expects the data centers to get built even under a more Democratic-leaning Congress and state governments, because states and localities face a shortage of revenue and see data centers as a politically expedient way to gain grid improvements and productivity benefits.

  “I would actually take it the other way that opposition can actually be good for data centers over the long run. Rather than getting sort of an immediate boom bust approach on capex, it could actually spread or smooth capex coming to market. Meaning, you get moratoriums rather than bans.”at 39:09

US Treasuries & yields

• Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research

  Ten-year yield is back to normal; long bond around 5% a year from now.

  Yardeni argues the ten-year yield has returned to its normal level, and that the low-rate period between the financial crisis and the pandemic was the aberration. He expects rates to stay at a 'high normal' level, which he says is where they should be, and forecasts the long bond at about 5% a year out and at 5% by the end of the decade, as long as central banks do not resume quantitative easing. He ties the yield to economic strength and productivity.

  “I think the ten year bond yield is back to normal... They're going to stay high normal for longer, which is where they should be.”at 9:54

• Ari Wald · Oppenheimer & Co.

  Rising yields are a risk-on signal; 5% ten-year level may become support rather than resistance.

  Wald sees the 5% ten-year yield as a big level and notes that prior resistance often becomes support. He would like to see a leveling off and range-bound action, but thinks the equity market can withstand higher yields. He interprets the rise as a risk-on trade, and says the near-term top in rates was tied to AI debt concerns that had pushed money into safe-haven Treasuries.

  “to us, it's obviously 5% was a big level. Often, prior resistance becomes support... I like that rising rates are the risk on trade.”at 11:06

Oil & fuels

• Jonathan Wagner · TP ICAP (TP MOAB)

  Oil market is extremely wild and illiquid; large funds bet on a deal and lower prices, creating headline-driven whipsaws.

  Wagner describes large funds convinced a deal will come, that oil should return to $60, and that the war premium will disappear. They have bought massive put spreads in front-end Brent, which pushed up volatility and made call skew cheap. Recent escalation has drawn heavy call buying at those cheap levels, while systematic funds remain very long. Thin liquidity and constant headlines about Trump, the Houthis and Israel make the market so hard to trade that some participants have stepped out entirely.

  “It is about as wild as it can possibly get, and it has gotten so wild that people have actually said, I can't play this market and I'm out. And the lack of liquidity in the market right now makes it way worse.”at 17:14

• Jonathan Wagner · TP ICAP (TP MOAB)

  Headlines say Middle East crude exports are back to prewar levels, but the data does not show it.

  Wagner notes that headlines claim Middle East crude exports are back to prewar levels, but he says the data does not show that. He is not debating whether the headlines are true, but he observes that market participants believe oil is flowing freely and that the war will end. That belief underpins large bearish bets on oil.

  “Middle East crude exports are back to prewar levels. I don't believe that the data ... to me doesn't show that. But, you know, people believe it.”at 18:38

US stock market outlook

• Ari Wald · Oppenheimer & Co.

  Secular bull intact with oversold risk and a likely year-end rally, but breadth breakdowns threaten a 2027 reset.

  Wald rejects the idea of a bubble-style collapse, arguing that the secular bull market is still intact while acknowledging intervening cycles. He is worried about breakdowns in internal market breadth, but sees the key positive in oversold risk and expects a year-end rally. He warns that lower highs in small caps, weaker leadership and credit could undermine that rally and set up a reset year in 2027. He also argues the Nasdaq 100's five-year rate of change, at around 200% versus about 1,000% in the late 1990s, shows a catch-up trade rather than a bubble, which could drive several more years of secular advance.

  “...making the case of secular bull still intact... I think the key positive is that risk is oversold. I think that we're still set up for that year end rally.”at 2:46

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Ed Yardeni · Yardeni Research

  AI bubble is deflating without bursting; bond market discipline and ecosystem support will contain failures.

  Yardeni sees the AI bubble as losing air rather than popping, which he calls the best outcome for the concerns raised. He points to the bond market discriminating sharply between borrowers by rating and moving faster than rating agencies, which he says will regulate capital access to the AI trade. He expects some AI company failures amid heavy competition, but argues the ecosystem is a 'band of brothers' where well-funded players like the AI labs will bail out neoclouds if needed.

  “I think air is coming out of the bubble without the bubble bursting, which is the best solution to all these concerns.”at 3:56

Software & SaaS

• Ari Wald · Oppenheimer & Co.

  Software breaking out as semiconductors correct, a bullish intersector rotation.

  Wald notes semiconductors had an exceptional 18-month run, and that high beta has led to compression and correction in those stocks. Software is picking up the slack and showing nice breakouts. He reads this as a very telling bullish rotation within technology, which he sees as the defining characteristic of tech over the past decade.

  “But at the same time, you're seeing software pick up the slack and getting some nice breakouts there. So I think that's very telling bullish rotation that's going on in that group.”at 7:17

US–China AI & chip race

• Dan Ives

  US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in thirty years, with Anthropic, Nvidia and Microsoft central.

  Ives argues that the US is ahead of China in technology for the first time in thirty years. He credits Anthropic, Nvidia and Microsoft as key pieces of this lead and frames it as part of an AI arms race that is playing out. He ties this to public debate about investor participation in Anthropic's IPO.

  “first time in thirty years, US is [ahead] of China when it comes to tech, but Anthropic plays a huge piece.”at 35:47

Private equity

• Monica Guerra · Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

  Democratic scrutiny of private equity, especially in healthcare, brings headline risk but not lasting fundamental damage.

  Guerra sees the private equity space as an opportunity where bad political news could be good news for investors who stay in quality names. A Democratic-led Congress would likely drill down on the sector with hearings and more investigation, particularly in healthcare, where PE firms may face scrutiny. She says PE firms will work through their margin-improvement playbook, using this period in Congress as a testing ground for what will work in 2028 and 2029. Because legislation will be hard to pass, a negative headline does not necessarily mean negative fundamentals.

  “news could be good news opportunity is in the private equity space. If you're staying up in quality, you're gonna have a democratic government that's gonna essentially drill down, maybe have hearings, do more exploration... you may get a negative headline, but it doesn't necessarily mean negative fundamentals”at 41:09

US elections & politics

• Monica Guerra · Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

  Divided midterm government means little legislation passes, so markets should welcome gridlock despite headline volatility.

  Guerra expects a Democratic Congress with a Republican president, who is likely to veto policy, to produce legislative stability. Investigations and hearings will generate headlines and some volatility, including sell-offs or rallies on White House posts, but she says these are pockets of volatility rather than a change in the trend. She argues that very little of substance will get done in the next two years, including AI and data-center legislation, which will be very hard to pass. So negative headlines do not necessarily mean negative fundamentals, and she expects the stock market to like the gridlock.

  “Nothing's gonna happen for the next two years. Nothing's gonna happen. I mean, literally, legitimately, there's gonna investigate Trump... but nothing of substance is gonna get done. And the stock market will probably like that.”at 42:20