Speaker · Updated
Steve Liesman: latest market views
CNBC
Summary
Steve Liesman is CNBC's senior economics reporter, covering the Federal Reserve and the economy.
Chorus has 6 views from Steve Liesman across 5 episodes on CNBC Halftime Report, Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) and CNBC Power Lunch since October 22, 2026.
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The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
With nominal growth at 6%, the Fed funds rate is too low and policy is not restrictive enough.
Liesman argues the Fed's policy rate is too low given the economy's strength. With nominal growth at 6%, including about 3% real growth and inflation, the funds rate is too low, which generates inflation and means the economy is running hot. He sees the simple math as clear even though the Fed debates complex monetary policy, and he notes Musalem's hawkish remarks.
“if you're growing nominally at 6%, your funds rate is too low. Period. End of story. You're generating inflation in the economy.”at 32:32
CNBC Halftime Report: Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026 ·
The Fed will definitely hike in December, as markets have priced in.
Liesman says Chair Warsh signaled a December hike if the data support it, and the market heard that and priced it: futures showed about an 85% chance of a December hike and 66% for March. Critics argue the Fed failed to give a coherent reason not to hike in October, which increases the case for tightening.
“I think we're definitely getting a hike in December. That's what the market heard and that's how they're priced.”at 6:12
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Inflation is in the pipeline and won't clear even if oil flows normally.
Liesman argues that even if the oil supply normalizes, the Fed has to contend with inflation in the pipeline. He points to the PPI, where unprocessed and processed intermediate goods show a lot of inflation, so the supply shock may become the normal situation.
“My concern is that there's inflation in the pipeline here.”at 11:02
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): Gary Cohn & Chris Sununu: The Fed, AI, & the Midterms 10/29/26 ·
Market prices more Fed work ahead, with up to two 2027 hikes; dissents have preceded hikes before.
Dissents can signal a hawkish turn: last time, dissents came before the Fed hiked. Warsh has said the Fed has work to do if it lacks confidence inflation is heading toward target. Two-year yields near 4.77%, roughly 90 to 100 basis points above fed funds, imply the market expects more hikes, with up to two priced for 2027. Steve calls it wishful thinking to assume hikes are off the table next year or that hikes can't work. The Fed affects demand by pushing rates high enough to bring demand below potential, and it has only one tool.
“Joe is right. There is a... Another hike priced in, but it's also worth pointing out the market has more than that priced in for '27 as many as two rate hikes priced in... So the market thinks the Fed has more work to do here.”at 5:12
CNBC Halftime Report: Countdown to the Fed Decision 10/28/26 ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Local data center opposition is broad; the industry has lost the thread, though some states will host them.
Liesman cites a CNBC survey in which 63% of registered voters would oppose a data center within 10 miles of their home. He argues the industry lost the thread because approvals happen quietly at county commissions, so residents only learn of them after the fact and cannot respond in time. He says states with energy surplus, such as some in the former Confederacy, may recruit data centers, and that concerns about electricity, water and noise can be overcome.
“I think the AI industry lost the thread on this... I think that there are places that will accept them... These are things that can be overcome and are overcoming.”at 29:12
CNBC Power Lunch: Tech Earnings Reaction, Q3 All-America Survey, Hormuz Chokepoint Check 10/22/26 ·
Polls can't settle the midterms; turnout and enthusiasm could still shift the outcome.
Liesman reports a CNBC poll showing Democrats ahead 52% to 45% on congressional control and Democrats 10 points more enthusiastic. He says campaigns always try to prove polls wrong. The president is campaigning hard in the final two weeks, and turnout is very hard to model. He notes the president's base is stable, and the outcome depends on whether non-MAGA Republicans and Democratic Socialists cross the line.
“I think what people forget is I present a poll like this, and the expressed objective of every campaign is to prove my poll wrong.”at 11:34
Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box): The Nasdaq’s AI IPOs, Tesla’s Q3, Gloomy Economic Sentiment 10/22/26 ·
Shows
- CNBC Halftime Report · 2 episodes
- Squawk Pod (CNBC Squawk Box) · 2 episodes
- CNBC Power Lunch · 1 episode
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