Amazon in Focus as the Nasdaq Slides 10/3026

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 28 speakers in other episodes, 33 bullish and 6 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Amazon's selloff is the market flinching; AWS growth and capex plans make valuation forgiving, so he is not trimming.

  Lebenthal trimmed Alphabet the day before but is not doing the same with Amazon. He cites Andy Jassy's claim that AWS will become a $1 trillion company and says that means he doesn't need to flinch at each market shot. He calls Amazon's valuation very forgiving, sees no sign of capex letting up, and reads the post-earnings selloff as the market overreacting rather than a change in fundamentals.

  “I don't feel the same way about Amazon. ... I find these valuations very forgiving. There's no sign of CapEx letting up. So all of this to me is just the market flinching.”at 2:30

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital AdvisorsBullish

  Amazon's record AWS margins, growth and backlog show upside; he would lean into the stock.

  Snipes sees a mixed quarter but says AWS is the story. AWS grew 39% year over year, roughly double last year's pace, with record 13.9% margins. Custom chips are up about 20x from last year and will be offered to enterprises late in 2027. Backlog rose from $497 billion to $578 billion. With the stock now down only about 2% after being down 7% premarket and the forward guide likely to rise, he would be tempted to buy.

  “I would be tempted to lean in here. Right? Because I do think there's upside potential just given where the metrics are...”at 6:17

Alphabet

Across the shows: 36 speakers in other episodes, 27 bullish and 16 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBearish

  Alphabet is in the penalty box for the foreseeable future over search ad concerns, so he trimmed the stock.

  Lebenthal trimmed Alphabet because he expected the stock to be in the penalty box given the reaction to search ad revenue concerns. He argues search is far more central to Alphabet's profit engine than ads are to Amazon, so the reaction was outsized and the stock will stay pressured for a while.

  “I said I wanna trim it a little bit because I thought it would be in the penalty box, and it will be for the foreseeable future.”at 2:30

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  AI-search ad disruption to Alphabet's search ads looks solvable; smarter teams are likely already working on it.

  Lebenthal argues the search ad problem from AI answers looks solvable. Google could give part of the answer and make users click through for the rest, which is where ads appear. He reasons that if this seems solvable to an outsider, people at Alphabet and Amazon are likely working on it already.

  “This, to me, seems very solvable. ... You just give half the answer and make them click through to get the rest of the answer, and that's where your ads pop up.”at 4:21

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 48 speakers in other episodes, 38 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBearish

  Nvidia's vendor and circular financing of AI deals is a warning sign; he sold most of his stake.

  Weiss sold most of his Nvidia. He says it is not a house of cards and has a strong balance sheet, but Nvidia is financing a lot of the buildout. He sees many private deals where Nvidia is an investor, guarantor or debt holder, which he calls the height of circular and vendor financing. That raises his concern about future earnings for the capex-heavy names.

  “But they're financing everything. ... To me, that is just the height of circular financing, vendor financing.”at 11:36

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Nvidia is building out an ecosystem funded by billions in quarterly profit; Jensen calls it a ten-year journey.

  Talkington says Nvidia is building out an ecosystem while making billions of dollars every quarter. He cites Jensen Huang saying this is a ten-year journey. Not every company in the ecosystem will survive, but he sees Nvidia's position as strong and says the stock is near its 200-day, where he expects a bounce.

  “NVIDIA is building out this ecosystem because they're making billions of dollars every quarter... Jensen has said, this is a ten year journey.”at 12:30

Microsoft

Across the shows: 32 speakers in other episodes, 29 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Microsoft's cloud is leveraged to AI with growing numbers; the sell-offs in these stocks are overdone.

  Talkington says Microsoft is threading the needle by spending tens of billions while still reporting positive free cash flow, which is what public companies must do. He argues cloud at Amazon, Google and Microsoft remains leveraged to AI and those numbers will keep growing, so the big sell-offs in these stocks are overdone because of skepticism priced in.

  “cloud with Microsoft continues to be leveraged to AI, and those numbers are gonna continue to grow. So I think a lot of these big sell offs are overdone.”at 12:30

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Microsoft's positive free cash flow is the key difference; its debt deal was scooped up, making it a winner.

  Lebenthal says Microsoft's cloud and business look much like Alphabet's and AWS's, but its free cash flow is positive. A recent roughly $25 billion debt deal was snapped up quickly, unlike Oracle and Meta debt. He argues positive free cash flow puts a company in the winner's circle while spending continues, which explains the stock's move after the earnings report.

  “Free cash flow is positive at Microsoft... that debt got scooped up really quickly to a degree that Oracle and Meta debt is not being scooped up. So that is the big difference, free cash flow positivity.”at 14:53

Apple

Across the shows: 11 speakers in other episodes, 2 bullish and 11 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBullish

  Apple's iPhone demand looks strong ahead of earnings, making it a port in the storm amid the tech selloff.

  Apple won't report new-phone sales this quarter, but management will likely say demand is very strong. Lead times have shrunk: a month ago the wait was a month or a week, and he got his phone the next day. That makes Apple a refuge from the AI-driven tech selloff.

  “But they will talk about how demand is very strong, even though the lead times, as is typical, have shrunk for the 18. ... But I think it's a port in the storm right here.”at 43:59

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementNeutral

  Apple's revenue will be strong, but the stock won't move much until Siri improves.

  Apple's revenue is expected to grow more than 10%, with people upgrading and buying phones, so he expects a strong quarter and a fine call. Earnings have been helped by buybacks, which he calls financial engineering. He doesn't expect a big stock move this quarter because there is no big catalyst. The stock gets going once Siri, improved through the Google partnership, works better.

  “from an Apple business perspective, this is gonna [be] a strong quarter. Revenues are gonna be up... Expected to be up over 10%... I don't think the stock is gonna make a big move... because I don't think they have big catalyst.”at 44:36

Caterpillar

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBearish

  Caterpillar's data center narrative is unchanged, and the stock getting smoked is deserved after its roughly one-third drop.

  Weiss sold Caterpillar and says its narrative has not changed; it is a bet on data center demand. The stock is down about a third from where he sold it and got smoked the day before, which he says is what should happen. He reads the drop as the market reacting to the data center cycle turning.

  “look, I sold Caterpillar. Caterpillar's narrative hasn't changed... It's the data center narrative. Stock's down more than a third or roughly a third from where I sold it... It got smoked as it should have.”at 9:40

Twilio

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment PartnersBearish

  Twilio's beat was overshadowed by weak guidance; AI-adjacent software is punished when expectations are high.

  Terranova bought Twilio ten days before the report and was stopped out at $188, giving back his profits from the past ten years. Twilio beat on earnings and revenue, but its forward guidance was disappointing. He says AI-adjacent software names need near-perfect results, so the outlook shortfall led to a sharp drop that he sees as part of this earnings season's pattern.

  “This is a disappointing earnings report. ... The expectations were very high. They beat on earnings and revenue, but the outlook going forward for guidance was disappointing.”at 18:58

Moderna

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 0 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital PartnersBullish

  Moderna's pipeline of 39 vaccines and drugs and strong Keytruda combination results make the future bright.

  Weiss doesn't care much about the upcoming quarter but says the excitement around Moderna is palpable after a dinner with CEO Stéphane Bancel. The company has 39 vaccines and drugs in its pipeline, and the results of the Keytruda combination were fantastic. He calls the future bright.

  “I don't really care that much about the quarter... the excitement's just palpable. They've got 39 vaccines and drugs in the pipeline... The results that came out on the Keytruda combination were just fantastic.”at 28:49

Visa

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital ManagementBullish

  Visa is a great stock with 60%+ margins and a duopoly, so its high multiple is justified.

  Talkington says Visa is one of very few companies that is consistently a great company and a great stock. It has margins north of 60%, a simple high-margin business, and is essentially a duopoly. He argues the high multiple reflects the consistency of margins and durable earnings, which few companies besides Apple can match.

  “They have margins north of 60%. That's not gonna change anytime soon. They have a very simple business, high margin, really a duopoly.”at 36:27

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  JPMorgan is the best bank to own; its premium valuation is earned if the economy and AI buildout hold.

  If the economy stays fine and the AI infrastructure buildout continues, financials will benefit. Within financials, JPMorgan is the best of the group, and although it trades at a premium, Lebenthal argues the premium is deserved.

  “If you believe that the AI build out is going to continue, then financials are gonna benefit, period. And if you're gonna own financials, as with any industry, you gotta own the best of the bunch, and that is JPMorgan. I know it sells at a premium. It sells at a premium for a reason.”at 37:03

The Walt Disney Company

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 1 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity PartnersBullish

  Disney has shown early signs of life; he owns it, but it must keep improving on the next earnings report.

  He nearly sold before the last earnings report and is glad he didn't, because Disney has shown signs of life. He is candid that it needs to show a lot more, so the next earnings report is the test. He says he is in the stock.

  “I almost threw in the towel before the last earnings report. I'm glad I didn't. It has shown signs of life. It needs to show a lot more signs of life. Let's see if it can follow through on the next earnings report. I'm in it.”at 38:13

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  Hyperscaler capex plans from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet show AI spending is early, in the first third.

  Lebenthal looks at the capex plans from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet and sees no sign of spending slowing. He takes this as the large language model providers' message that the AI buildout is still early, at best in the middle innings and more likely in the first third of the game.

  “Amazon, and Alphabet, and I say it's game on. ... We're at best in the middle innings and more likely in the first third of the ballgame.”at 3:33

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  AI spending is at its peak with significant overordering in memory, chips and overbuilt data centers.

  Weiss says ROI from AI spending has been elusive across most reports, with the possible exception of Meta and Microsoft. Private internet companies are struggling to raise capital, and the take-or-pay contracts that are supposed to guarantee demand are not real. He sees the spending cycle as peaking: no aggressive capex raises this season, though spending is still high and hits cash flow. He is sure of overordering in memory, chips and data centers, as in every cycle.

  “I have no doubt that there's significant over ordering in memory, in chips, and overbuilding in data centers. You see it in every single cycle.”at 8:55

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Supply constraints can only be resolved with more spending, so investors won't pay a premium for the stocks.

  Terranova says the industry faces extensive supply constraints. The only way to resolve them is more spending, and he doesn't think investors will pay a premium for a stock that has to spend more to fix supply. He sees this as part of why his earnings-season expectations went wrong.

  “the only way you resolve that is through further spending and increasing spending. And I don't think you're gonna pay a premium for a stock price if you're telling me you're gonna have to spend more to resolve a supply constraint challenge.”at 21:02

US stock market outlook

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Market is rotating internally into defense and not into cash; the trade has been offense-defense rotation all year.

  Terranova says the market has no defined trend, switching between bullish and bearish days. He still sees it rotating internally toward health care and energy as defensive sectors, away from momentum. He does not see a rotation toward cash yet, and calls the rotation between offense and defense the theme of 2026, with the midterms ahead.

  “I still see the market rotating internally. ... It's not really rotating towards cash just yet.”at 22:50

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Defensive rotation into staples and financials is not a clean positive; large-cap premiums are unwinding.

  Snipes sees the market rotating defensively into staples, energy and financials despite strong GDP data. He argues that defensive rotation is not a positive signal going forward. He expects the premium on large names that have run up to keep unwinding, so investors should look at multiples again and reshuffle their portfolios.

  “if you're taking it from a defensive perspective, that's not necessarily a positive positive note going forward.”at 24:17

• Jim Lebenthal · Cerity Partners

  The selloff looks like a consolidating pause, not a recession or bear market, given the strong economic data.

  Lebenthal notes that economic data is strong, with GDP at 3.4%, yet cyclicals, consumer names and materials are struggling. He applies Occam's razor: the simplest explanation for that disconnect is a consolidating pause rather than a recession, bear market, or peak spending, and that is how he is positioning.

  “The simplest explanation based on the way you just set it up with the economic data, Scott, is that this is a consolidated pause, and that's how I'm playing it.”at 25:28

AI bubble & tech valuations

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  The AI equity cycle is near its end, so valuations will reset as capex-heavy companies' numbers come down.

  Weiss says that he is not saying the spending is ending, but the equity growth in the cycle is nearing its end. Valuations will go back to fundamentals, and earnings estimates will come down, especially for companies on the capex side that build infrastructure rather than just spend. He points to private-market financing trouble and the lack of real guarantees as signs the cycle is turning.

  “I'm saying the growth in the cycle has near its end in terms of the equities, and now it's gonna be back to valuation.”at 11:36

• Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management

  A lot of money will be wasted on the AI build-out, but skepticism is healthy because it dampens the bubble.

  Talkington agrees with Weiss that a lot of money will be wasted by hyperscalers. He says the build-out is still early and that the skepticism creeping into stock prices is healthy because it stops and dampens the bubble from continuing to build. He argues that many large sell-offs are overdone because of this skepticism.

  “A lot of money will be wasted... it's early days, and I think that skepticism ultimately is very healthy. It really, like, stops and dampens this, like, bubble from continuing to build.”at 12:30

Pharma & biotech

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Biotech has more upside: up 29% year to date, M&A is picking up, and he likes the trade going forward.

  Snipes says biotech is up 29% year to date. The main worry for investors is that rising yields and interest rates raise the cost of care and weigh on the sector. He counters that M&A is starting to pick up in the space, so he sees continued momentum in the trade and likes it going forward.

  “So I think there is continued juice in this trade, and I like this one going forward.”at 28:17

• Steve Weiss · Short Hills Capital Partners

  AI can let drug companies skip phase one and two trials, cutting time and cost, which is positive for biotech.

  Weiss says AI will let drug companies skip phase one and phase two trials and go straight to phase three human trials. That speeds time to market and produces large cost savings, since early trial phases are expensive. He calls it a positive for the IBB and biotech overall, and says investors are finding growth in biotech because they can't find it in some AI trades.

  “with AI, you'll be able to help drug companies on their trials skip phase one and phase two, and perhaps just go to phase three human trials. So the speed to [market] will be greater.”at 29:19

Market sentiment, positioning & volatility

• Joe Terranova · Virtus Investment Partners

  Positioning is not clean; further hedge-fund deleveraging in tech and momentum shows he was wrong about it.

  Terranova had thought positioning was clean after enough deleveraging. The further deleveraging he sees across technology and in the momentum factor shows it is not, and he admits he was wrong. He ties this to a market that is not yet ready to move beyond its questions about the AI trade.

  “I think it's obvious that we haven't based on the further deleveraging that we're seeing in the market across the board for technology and the momentum factor.”at 21:02

US rates & the Fed

• Steve Liesman · CNBC

  With nominal growth at 6%, the Fed funds rate is too low and policy is not restrictive enough.

  Liesman argues the Fed's policy rate is too low given the economy's strength. With nominal growth at 6%, including about 3% real growth and inflation, the funds rate is too low, which generates inflation and means the economy is running hot. He sees the simple math as clear even though the Fed debates complex monetary policy, and he notes Musalem's hawkish remarks.

  “if you're growing nominally at 6%, your funds rate is too low. Period. End of story. You're generating inflation in the economy.”at 32:32

Power demand & the grid

• Jason Snipe · Odyssey Capital Advisors

  Power and grid buildout still has a long way to go, so the AI-driven selloff in power names is overdone.

  Power and data-center power names have sold off with the broader AI drawdown. Snipes says that remains a big unfinished job on the power and grid side. He agrees with earlier comments that AI spending may have overshot, but argues the investment needed to sustain the surge is still ahead.

  “But there's still a lot to be done from a power perspective. There's still a lot to be done from a grid perspective.”at 37:54