Speaker · Updated
Chris Whalen: latest market views
Whalen Global Advisors LLC
Summary
Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and author, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, editor of The Institutional Risk Analyst, and a co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics, who is known as a banking and mortgage finance analyst.
Chorus has 110 views from Chris Whalen across 5 episodes on The Julia La Roche Show, The David Lin Report and Thoughtful Money since October 6, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Annaly Capital Management, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and The Williams Companies; bearish on Federal Home Loan Mortgage, Federal National Mortgage Association, Meta Platforms and Bank of America.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Annaly Capital ManagementBullish ·
- Federal Home Loan MortgageBearish ·
- Federal National Mortgage AssociationBearish ·
- Meta PlatformsBearish ·
- Bank of AmericaBearish ·
- CoreWeaveBearish ·
- NVIDIABearish ·
- OracleBearish ·
- SoftBank GroupBearish ·
- The Charles SchwabBearish ·
- UWM HoldingsBearish ·
- ChevronBullish ·
- Exxon MobilBullish ·
- loanDepotBearish ·
- The Williams CompaniesBullish ·
What they talk about most
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Federal Home Loan MortgageBearish
Freddie Mac won't be released from government control during Trump's term; the stock's rallies on privatization talk are a pump and dump.
Whalen says Freddie Mac shares, like Fannie Mae's, surge on comments from Pulte or Bessent and then fall back, which is why he calls it a pump and dump. He argues release is not possible during the Trump term because the GSEs have done no work and are not prepared to be private: they lack management and need investment in systems and controls. The US owns about 95% of both GSEs on a fully diluted basis, and paying for the government guarantee keeps accruing shares to Treasury. Moody's and S&P would likely downgrade them if the US stake fell below 50%, so the government will not risk that. His preferred structure is for the US to buy back all common shares, making it the sole equity holder, with the public participating through nonvoting preferred and debt.
“...there isn't really a possibility of release of the GSEs during the Trump term. They have done no work. Neither of the GSEs is really prepared to become a private company again.”at 2:23
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Federal National Mortgage AssociationBearish
Fannie Mae won't be released from government control during Trump's term; the stock's rallies on privatization talk are a pump and dump.
Whalen says the stock surges every time FHFA head Bill Pulte or Treasury's Bessent comments on privatization, then falls back, so he calls it a pump and dump. He argues release is not possible during the Trump term because the GSEs have done no work and are not prepared to be private: they lack management and need investment in systems and controls. The US owns about 95% of both GSEs on a fully diluted basis, and paying for the government guarantee keeps accruing shares to Treasury. Moody's and S&P would likely downgrade them if the US stake fell below 50%, so the government will not risk that. His preferred structure is for the US to buy back all common shares, making it the sole equity holder, with the public participating through nonvoting preferred and debt, as Annaly does with agency pass-throughs.
“...there isn't really a possibility of release of the GSEs during the Trump term. They have done no work. Neither of the GSEs is really prepared to become a private company again.”at 2:23
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Foreclosures will keep rising as the market turns to a buyer's market and COVID-era mortgage relief is gone.
Auction.com data shows foreclosure auction volume up about 25% year over year. Whalen says the Trump administration removed the COVID-era special treatment for defaulted government-backed (FHA and VA) mortgages, so borrowers now get one chance to reperform before foreclosure or a short sale. This has been manageable because home prices are still 40-50% above pre-COVID levels, so sellers can clear the loan with cash left over. But home prices are softening and the market is moving to a buyer's market, so he expects foreclosures to keep rising in residential mortgages and in business-purpose loans. Delinquency is rising from a low base and is still below 2019 and early-2020 foreclosure levels, but lenders' delinquency handling is now nearly identical to pre-COVID practice. He expects these numbers to gently keep rising.
“The Trump administration eliminated all of the special treatment for defaulted mortgages that was put in place by the Biden administration during COVID... However, home prices are softening. We are going into a buyer's market as opposed to a seller's market.”at 9:16
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
The 10-year Treasury yield will stay roughly where it is and won't fall to 4% or lower without the Fed buying bonds again.
Whalen agrees with Ralph's view that the 10-year has given back a lot of ground after going above 5%, and that underlying inflation excluding energy could push the Fed to ease. He disagrees on the size of the move. Between 2008 and the end of COVID the Fed bought about $10 trillion of securities, taking duration out of the market and keeping rates low. Unlike the Fed, Fannie and Freddie hedge their purchases, which nearly cancels the effect. Without the Fed leaning on the market, he does not think the 10-year returns to 4%. He expects yields to stay more or less where they are, with a possible modest decline. A trigger like an AI company default could make the Fed buy again, and Kevin Warsh is likely to be more cautious and avoid buying bonds.
“we are probably gonna see ten year bond yields stay more or less where they are. They could continue to come down a bit. But are we gonna go to 4% or lower? I don't think so.”at 19:16
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Meta PlatformsBearish
Meta's scramble to raise money for its AI strategy is a warning that an AI company stumble could spook the Fed.
Whalen points to Meta this week being out desperately trying to raise money for its AI strategy. He sees this as a sign of financing strain in the AI buildout. A big stumble or default at one of these AI companies could force the Fed to get more involved in markets, which would matter for the Treasury yield outlook. The argument is brief and more a risk observation than a detailed case.
“You've seen what's going on with Meta this week as they're out desperately trying to raise money for their AI strategy. If you have a big stumble or a default with one of these AI companies, that could spook the fed”at 20:36
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Gold is an asymmetric trade and he is adding on weakness because central banks are diversifying away from dollars.
Gold prices have eroded, and short-term investors have lost interest. Whalen says global central banks keep buying because they want to diversify reserves away from dollars, and gold is now the largest reserve asset of global central banks. He calls gold an asymmetrical trade and says it is cheaper now, so it is attractive to add for long-term investors. He says he may keep adding to his gold holdings. He warns against overconcentration: someone who put most of their portfolio into gold at the peak is now struggling. A modest portion of the portfolio belongs in precious metals, with income and liquidity elsewhere.
“Continuing to buy. They wanna diversify their reserves away from dollars, and gold is now the largest reserve asset of global central banks.”at 21:39
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
The Fed will likely pause in October; Warsh may abstain from a hike even if a majority favors one.
Whalen thinks a majority of the FOMC may favor a hike, but he doubts Chair Warsh will vote for one. Warsh may abstain again, as he did before, by letting the rest of the committee vote. Whalen still thinks the Fed may pause in October. The main risk to that is the Iran situation, which could push oil and energy-driven price pressure up. He also argues that Warsh is much more cautious than Powell, and that Yellen and Powell both did too much, with negative consequences for markets.
“There may be a majority on the committee for a hike, but I'm not sure chair Wash is gonna vote for a hike. He may abstain again... So we'll see. I still think they may pause in October.”at 23:20
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Renewed US and Israeli bombing of Iran would push oil prices higher and pressure the Fed to act.
Whalen calls the Iran war the big question mark affecting markets. If the US and Israel start bombing Iran again, oil prices would rise. That would put pressure on the Fed to act, because energy-sector price pressure is already present, with food prices up. He notes that the US has more or less gotten the Strait of Hormuz under control and oil is moving through it, but he sees a renewed strike risk.
“If The US and the Israelis start bombing Iran again, then I think you see oil prices go up, and it's gonna put a lot of pressure on the Fed to act”at 23:39
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Consumer products companies face margin pressure because higher diesel prices raise the cost of trucking goods to stores.
Diesel prices are not coming down, and Whalen says trucks are the way goods reach stores, whether durable, nondurable or food. Higher diesel costs squeeze margins for consumer products companies, and he expects that pain point to continue. He tells investors to be careful with these companies. Natural gas prices are down, which helps, but diesel and other refined products stay elevated.
“I think you've gotta be careful with consumer products companies here because they are suffering a lot of margin pressure due to higher diesel prices. Trucks are the way we get stuff into stores.”at 25:11
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Credit will become a bigger problem; years of low rates have subsidized housing and credit, and portfolio problems are surfacing.
Whalen expects credit to be a bigger problem going forward than it has been, and ties this to his foreclosure view. He argues that interest rates have largely subsidized housing and credit for years, so the problems in lenders' portfolios are now starting to bubble to the surface. He expects higher foreclosure activity next year because the credit cycle has run so long. He calls the financials an interest rate play, which means their outcomes depend heavily on the rate path.
“I continue to think credit is gonna be a problem going forward or a bigger problem than it's been.”at 25:25
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
He is very cautious on all financials because their results depend on interest rates and credit problems are building.
Whalen calls financials basically an interest rate play, and he expects credit to become a bigger problem. He says years of rate policy have subsidized housing and credit, so portfolio problems are now coming to the surface, and he expects higher foreclosure activity next year. Against that backdrop, he says he is very cautious on all of the financials right now. Julia notes he has gotten out of banks, but he does not confirm a current short position.
“So I am very cautious on all of the financials right now.”at 26:06
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Annaly Capital ManagementBullish
Annaly is his biggest position; he'd add below book value because it manages rate cycles better than typical REITs.
Whalen says Annaly is still his biggest position and he will probably buy more below book value. He thinks Annaly's management has the skills to run the portfolio through the cycle. Unlike most REITs, Annaly is an issuer of securities: it buys loans and packages them, and about 20% of its capital is in mortgage servicing assets, which rise in value when rates go up. That gives it more tools for a higher-rate environment than a REIT that simply buys securities and hedges the ends of the curve. He says investors own REITs for income, and Annaly's stock was trading near two times book in COVID because people wanted income. He calls it a surrogate for Treasuries, since it holds government-insured securities and levers them.
“It's cheaper. Therefore, I think it's attractive to add... So, you know, [Annaly] is still my biggest position. I'm probably gonna buy some more of that if it gets below book value.”at 26:35
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
An unexpected turn in the Ukraine war could hit global markets, as Russia escalates against Europe and Putin won't concede.
Whalen calls the Ukraine war his biggest under-discussed risk. Russia, having lost on most of its objectives, is attacking European countries directly and with sabotage to save face. Putin does not want to concede defeat, so the conflict could spin out of control. Europe still strongly supports Ukraine, while President Trump appears to be making side deals with the Russians. He says an unanticipated turn in the conflict could significantly affect global financial markets, and that the Iran situation already shows how these events move markets.
“I think an errant event coming out of the Ukraine war... I'm a little bit concerned that this whole thing could spin out of control because Putin can't make peace.”at 30:06
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Refined product prices will stay very high for years because Gulf refining capacity is gone and takes years to rebuild.
Whalen argues the world has too much crude oil, and energy efficiency has reduced oil demand. The binding constraint is refined product. About 20% of the world's refined product supply was in the Gulf and is now gone. Rebuilding and repairing that capacity will take years, and any further disruption extends the timeline, so refined products and derivatives will keep high prices. He ties this to inflation and the political reaction in Europe, where people don't have enough gas for the winter or enough petroleum from the Middle East to make refined products. He says he balanced his portfolio toward energy at the end of last quarter.
“we have too much oil. The world is kind of a wash in oil... we need refined product. And 20% of the world's supply of refined product was in The Gulf, and it's now gone.”at 31:24
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Europe faces a winter gas shortage, while US onshore gas supply gives America an energy security advantage.
Whalen says people in Europe know they don't have enough gas to get through the winter, and they also lack enough petroleum from the Middle East to make refined products. He ties this to inflation and the riots in Europe. In contrast, the US has a lot of these assets onshore, including natural gas in enormous abundance. That gives it a very different energy security position. The argument is brief and more a macro observation than a detailed case.
“people in Europe know that they don't have enough gas to get through the winter. So what are they gonna do?”at 32:12
The Julia La Roche Show: #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming ·
Bank of AmericaBearish
Bank of America mismanaged its bond book and is leaving money on the table, so earnings should be higher.
Bank of America has not restructured its bond book even today, so it carries large unrealized losses on low-coupon securities, and the wider industry still has roughly $500 billion of total securities losses. Whalen says the bank should be earning far more, that management mismanaged the balance sheet and does not understand duration, and that peers like Citi, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and American Express handled it better. He frames this as an earnings problem and says he is not worried about deposits, because Bank of America is his own bank.
“But for some reason, the folks at Bank of America were kinda brain dead as usual. They're my bank, by the way. And they have constantly mismanaged that institution.”at 4:20
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
The Charles SchwabBearish
Schwab has the lowest bond-book yield of any large bank, leaving billions for shareholders on the table.
Whalen says Schwab's bond book yields less than any large bank's. Schwab defends this by pointing to its low cost of funds, but Whalen rejects that, arguing that proper management would be worth billions to shareholders. He also says he had a Schwab position and sold it, so the view is critical rather than a current holding.
“Schwab has the lowest yield on their bond book of any large bank. ... Because if they had gotten this right, it'd be worth billions and billions of dollars to Schwab shareholders.”at 5:18
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
Bank earnings will weaken because Wall Street capital markets activity has slowed sharply.
Whalen expects weaker bank earnings because the Wall Street side of banks has slowed a lot. AI deal activity has cooled after a sell-off. Lending has been quiet, with loan growth in low single digits, and the strong debt issuance and derivatives business from the first half of the year has faded. He says some quarterly yield help is coming as banks finish reporting.
“Well, I think you're going to see weaker earnings because the Wall Street side of the house has slowed down a lot. AI has slowed down, obviously. You've seen the sell off.”at 6:17
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
Whalen is out of bank stocks and shorting a couple names on rising inflation and Iran-war credit costs.
Whalen says he has lightened his bank holdings and is now short a couple of unnamed bank names. His reason is that credit costs will rise because of inflation and the war with Iran. He also notes that financials have been pulled back by buy-side investors who are worried about the Fed and future credit costs, and that the large-cap banks have not led the sector this year.
“I'm out of banks. You know, I have lightened up my portfolio when it comes to banks. ... And I'm actually short a couple names right now because I think credit costs due to inflation, due to the war with Iran are gonna go up.”at 7:29
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
Ten-year yields will not return to 5% or lower; confidence erosion keeps yields high.
Whalen expects a bond rally to fall short of the big rally investors expect, so he doesn't think ten-year yields will get back to 5% or lower. He cites the Fed not buying securities and President Trump's statements, which he says have eroded confidence in the United States and kept yields high. He also says AI-related credit demand has pushed yields up. He argues that Treasury buybacks have not helped.
“we may see a rally in bonds, but are we gonna go back to 5% on tens, or lower? I don't think so. ... the fact that the Fed is not buying securities ... has eroded confidence in The United States, and that's why bond yields are higher.”at 9:49
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Data center buildout lacks the funding, electricity and capability to be completed as planned.
Whalen says the industry lacks the funding, electricity and capability needed to make all the planned data centers real. As an example, he says Microsoft pulled out of a UK data center because power will not be available until 2030. He sees a fundamental lack of infrastructure, and says companies are taking on debt and commitments that their balance sheets cannot handle.
“But the reality is we don't have the wherewithal, the funding, the electricity to make all of these data centers real. You saw Microsoft pulling out of a data center in The UK because they're not gonna have power until 2030.”at 12:36
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
OracleBearish
Oracle's balance sheet cannot handle its AI debt and commitments, so it is likely to end in trouble.
Whalen argues that Oracle and similar companies are issuing debt and making commitments their balance sheets cannot support. He points to Oracle having already issued several force majeure notices because the deals it is involved in cannot be completed, and says it lacks the electricity and other resources needed to finish the projects. He expects some of these companies to be restructured or bought.
“And when you see all these companies issuing debt and making financial commitments that, frankly, their balance sheets can't handle, you almost know that they're gonna end up in trouble. I think Oracle is a case in point.”at 13:05
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
NVIDIABearish
NVIDIA is financing chip customers who cannot use the chips, a sign of circular demand.
Whalen describes buyers who bought NVIDIA chips, often financed by NVIDIA, and then stored them in warehouses because they cannot use them. He sees this as typical of the AI build-out. He also argues that NVIDIA has been aggressive about funding customers because those customers cannot carry the burden on their own balance sheets, and that NVIDIA has to hedge the exposure as if it were running a bank.
“So, you know, today, you have this bizarre situation where people have bought NVIDIA chips, often financed by NVIDIA, and they stick them in a warehouse somewhere because they can't use them.”at 13:30
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
AI is a mania of vast proportions; many current players may not survive a couple of years.
Whalen calls the AI boom a mania of vast proportions. He grants that AI is a useful technology, but says the clients who really benefit use it internally rather than rolling it out to consumers. He says we are in the early stages, that many of today's players may not be around in a couple of years, and that others will pick up the baton. He also says AI's monetization is still limited, so the build-out depends on funding that is not yet supported by revenue.
“That to me typifies what's going on here. The AI thing is just a mania of vast proportions.”at 13:43
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
Continuation vehicles show PE companies cannot sell their holdings, so holding periods are extended.
Whalen reads PE continuation vehicles as a sign that the companies private equity firms bought cannot be sold, so holding periods have to be extended. He says the quality of opportunities has declined as the industry has grown, and that continuation funds let bankers keep earning fees on what is effectively a failed investment. He says PE firms often sell assets to one another and pretend the assets are still good.
“Well, it means that the private equity companies that they underwrote can't be sold. And so they have to extend the time that they're gonna hold the investment.”at 14:38
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
SoftBank GroupBearish
SoftBank inflates portfolio valuations by investing in a company and then reinvesting at higher prices.
Whalen says SoftBank invests in a company and then, six to twelve months later, invests again at a higher valuation, and then points to the higher valuation as proof of gains. He argues this is pumping up value rather than creating it, and that it would once have been called securities fraud. He adds that SoftBank has said this year that it ran out of money and lacks enough capital for the opportunities it is pursuing.
“And you see this with SoftBank. SoftBank has used this approach where they will invest in a company, and then they'll go invest six months or twelve months later at a higher valuation.”at 16:39
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
CoreWeaveBearish
CoreWeave has limited capacity to carry its debt and is likely to be restructured or bought.
Whalen says a number of AI data center companies, naming CoreWeave with Oracle, will probably end up restructured or bought. He argues they have limited capacity to carry debt, especially when the payoff and time horizon of their investments are uncertain. Rising interest rates and the debt they must roll make the risk more acute.
“You talked about Oracle. You talked about CoreWeave. These are companies that have a limited capacity to carry debt, you know, especially if we're not sure about the payoff on the debt, the time horizon.”at 19:09
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
Bank liquidity is not drying up; banks have plenty of cash and are underutilized.
Whalen rejects the idea that bank liquidity is drying up. He says banks have plenty of cash and are underutilized. AI-related margin and securities lending has been the one hot area over the past six months, and the rest of the balance sheet is calm. He says banks would like more consumer and business borrowing, but demand is weak, citing low utilization of home equity lines and credit cards.
“No. The banks have plenty of cash. If anything, banks are underutilized today. The one hot area has been AI, margin lending, securities lending past six months.”at 20:03
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
Fed funds hikes barely hurt bank lending; long-end bond yields matter far more.
Whalen says short-term increases in the Fed funds target have little effect on bank lending. The long end of the bond market has had a much bigger impact over the past six months, raising loan yields, which he views as helpful for banks. The problem is on the borrower side, since borrowers face higher rates when they roll their debt.
“Well, the short term, you know, increases in the target for fed funds don't have much impact. The long end of the [bond] market that we've seen over past six months, that has a much bigger impact.”at 20:46
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
CRE borrowers struggle as seven-year post-COVID debt must be rolled at yields 2-3 points higher.
Whalen points to commercial real estate projects with seven-year debt originated right after COVID that now have to be refinanced at yields two to three points higher than seven years ago. Real long-end rates are positive, so borrowers face a real challenge, and many obligors have large amounts of debt to roll.
“the customers are struggling because if you're, say, a commercial real estate project and you've got debt that had a seven year tenure ... you're rolling it at yields that are two and three points higher than where we were seven years ago.”at 21:02
The David Lin Report: Banks Face $500 Billion In Losses: Debt Bomb Strikes | Chris Whalen ·
80 older views from Chris Whalen are on the episode pages, and all of them are a question away in your AI with Chorus.
Shows
- The Julia La Roche Show · 3 episodes
- The David Lin Report · 1 episode
- Thoughtful Money · 1 episode
Ask your AI what Chris Whalen thinks
Chorus gives Claude, ChatGPT and other assistants every view Chris Whalen has shared on the shows it covers, next to everyone else's. Ask where they stand, what changed, and who disagrees.
Chorus reports what speakers said. It isn't investment advice.