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What podcasters are saying about Commercial real estate
Summary
In the past 30 days, 10 speakers on 8 finance podcasts discussed Commercial real estate in 25 views. Chorus has followed Commercial real estate since September 25, 2026: 26 views from 11 speakers on 9 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Jerry Baglien · 11
- Tim Melvin · 3
- Brett Rentmeester · 2
- Chris Whalen · 2
- Chris Hentemann · 2
- Bryn Talkington · 1
- Craig Fuller · 1
- Tim Travis · 1
- Lance Roberts · 1
- Nick Nemeth · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Tim Melvin · Community Bank Investor
CRE credit problems sit in older Class B and C properties in major cities; trophy offices remain full.
CMBS delinquency rates show problems in older vintages of commercial real estate, especially Class B and C properties in major cities. Class A and trophy properties are not a problem. Melvin's community banks avoid syndicated loans and second- and third-tier office, lending mostly on local business parks and doctors' offices, with no meaningful delinquencies. He also cites Jay Hatfield's visit to New York REIT office buildings, where the bigger, newer, nicer buildings are full at normal occupancy.
“the areas of credit where there is a problem, large commercial real estate. Especially class b and class c properties in major cities.”at 2:32
The Acquirers Podcast: Tim Melvin: Finding Value Where Wall Street Isn’t Looking ·
Tim Melvin · Community Bank Investor
Multifamily demand is strong and supply is easing, so the widespread negativity is misplaced.
Banks aren't making new loans, so the apartment supply wave is easing. Most people can't afford houses, and a generation is stuck behind the one graduating now, so people can't move out of rentals as they used to. That creates tons of demand for multifamily apartments, which Melvin says is not reflected in how negative investors are on the sector.
“everybody is very negative on multifamily housing, and I don't understand how you can be right now. Because banks aren't doing any new loans. So supply is starting to ease up.”at 17:02
The Acquirers Podcast: Tim Melvin: Finding Value Where Wall Street Isn’t Looking ·
Tim Melvin · Community Bank Investor
Public REITs trade below the value of the real estate they own because public money runs scared.
Melvin says REITs are now cheaper than the actual real estate they hold, a disconnect in valuation. He attributes it to public investors who are scared after COVID hit office, even though the best buildings are full. He sees the gap as an opportunity in public real estate stocks.
“REITs are now cheaper than the actual real estate, so you've got a disconnect in valuation because public money runs scared.”at 17:42
The Acquirers Podcast: Tim Melvin: Finding Value Where Wall Street Isn’t Looking ·
Bryn Talkington · Requisite Capital Management
Higher rates are killing commercial real estate and housing after years without such rates.
Brynn argues that the real economy is feeling the rate increases. Commercial real estate and housing are being hit hard by higher rates. Those sectors are most exposed because they haven't faced rates this high in a long time. That is one reason she thinks the Fed should move slowly and won't deliver many more hikes.
“At the same time, the real economy, if you look at real estate, you look at, like, commercial real estate, look at housing, these higher rates are just killing those sectors just because we haven't had those rates in so long.”at 6:14
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Craig Fuller · FreightWaves
Overbuilt multifamily faces a potential debt crisis, held up only by people unable to buy homes.
Craig says the US overbuilt multifamily apartments, and landlords are offering big incentives to fill units. He argues the main thing holding the market up is that people cannot afford to buy houses, since otherwise a multifamily debt crisis would be a real possibility. He hedges by calling it a potential crisis.
“Probably the best thing holding that market up is the fact that people can't afford to buy houses or else I think there would be a potential debt crisis in multifamily”at 18:07
Thoughtful Money: "No Signs Of The A.I. Party Slowing Down" | Craig Fuller ·
Brett Rentmeester · WindRock Wealth Management
Multifamily and rental property in key areas should stay strong as inflation lifts rents.
Higher rates normally come with higher inflation, and inflation normally translates into higher rents over time. So he expects multifamily and rentals in key areas to remain strong, and he says people still want to travel and stay in the right hotels. He sees a clear split with office, which he thinks is distressed.
“Normally, inflation will translate into higher rents over time. So I think things like multifamily and rental in key areas are still going to be strong.”at 30:33
Brett Rentmeester · WindRock Wealth Management
Big-city office space is distressed, with buildings changing hands at about 10% of their value a decade ago.
He says office and big-city corridors are distressed, and he is starting to see transactions in Chicago where buildings change hands at about 10% of what they were worth ten years ago. He says this shows major distress in the office segment and that the sector cannot be painted with one brush.
“I think office and big cities are distressed, and I'm starting to see some transactions. We're here in Chicago, you see things where buildings are changing hands, you know, of 10% of what the value was ten years ago.”at 30:50
Tim Travis · Value Options Letter
Commercial real estate, excluding offices, is attractive now for a five-year horizon.
Travis says that if you believe in commercial real estate, setting aside office space, and have a five-year horizon, now is a really attractive time. He notes that REITs are raising third-party capital at reasonable cap rates, which lowers their cost of capital and leverage. The caveat is a 1970s or 1980s scenario of persistent inflation and high interest rates.
“And if you have a five year time horizon, now is a really attractive time unless you think that it's gonna be nineteen seventies, nineteen eighties...”at 20:17
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Chris Whalen · Whalen Global Advisors LLC
CRE borrowers struggle as seven-year post-COVID debt must be rolled at yields 2-3 points higher.
Whalen points to commercial real estate projects with seven-year debt originated right after COVID that now have to be refinanced at yields two to three points higher than seven years ago. Real long-end rates are positive, so borrowers face a real challenge, and many obligors have large amounts of debt to roll.
“the customers are struggling because if you're, say, a commercial real estate project and you've got debt that had a seven year tenure ... you're rolling it at yields that are two and three points higher than where we were seven years ago.”at 21:02
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Lance Roberts · RIA Advisors
REITs and utilities set up for a decent trade if oil falls back toward $80.
Roberts expects a reflexive trade if oil falls back to around $80 for some reason. Lower inflation pressure would pull yields down and lift interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as REITs and utilities. These sectors have badly underperformed and sit far below their long-term means, including financials, real estate and industrials, which typically gives at least a decent trade into year-end. He calls it a trade, not a long-term hold. His firm restructured its portfolios with this setup in mind.
“If we get oil prices back down at the $80 range, we should see a decent rotation into some of those more interest rate sensitive sectors, REITs, utilities. That's been another area that's been just grossly underperforming.”at 10:06
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Chris Whalen · Whalen Global Advisors LLC
Commercial real estate defaults will rise this year and next, as high rates bite.
Higher interest rates this year have had a large impact on commercial real estate. Whalen expects more defaults in the commercial space this year and next, part of a broader year-long reversal for politicians, industry and finance.
“It's also impacting commercial real estate a lot. You're gonna see more defaults in the commercial space this year and next year.”at 6:44
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Chris Hentemann · 400 Capital Management
COVID reset commercial real estate, creating relatively unique credit opportunities that his firm is pursuing.
Hentemann says commercial real estate is going through its cycles and that COVID turned the sector over. That repricing has produced relatively unique opportunities. He lists commercial real estate with SRT and residential housing as big areas where his firm has been very active and has earned nice returns. He notes that competition has increased since the earlier period but says pockets remain.
“Commercial real estate's going through those cycles. COVID turned commercial real estate over and there's some relatively unique opportunities in that sector.”at 23:02
Alpha Exchange: Chris Hentemann, Founder and CIO, 400 Capital Management ·
Chris Hentemann · 400 Capital Management
Office property is a shaky collateral bet because its alternative-use value can collapse.
Chris points to the office cycle that is underway now, and to the retail cycle before it. Offices were once seen as the gold standard for real estate, but he cites many cases where owners cannot give space away, and where the conversion to housing or other uses is uncertain. He stresses that alternative use is the key test for any collateral, and the office case shows how badly that can fail.
“everybody thought offices were like the gold standard for real estate investments and now everybody, there's plenty of examples of people can't give it away.”at 42:20
Alpha Exchange: Chris Hentemann, Founder and CIO, 400 Capital Management ·
Nick Nemeth · Mispriced Assets (Substack)
Commercial real estate is an absolute disaster, and its losses are not marked correctly on insurers' books.
Nick says the same balance sheets carrying mismarked private credit also hold commercial real estate, which is an absolute disaster and not marked correctly. He adds residential assets, ABS, Carvana subprime auto loans and Klarna BNPL loans to the list of exposures sitting there. What holds it together is that funding doesn't dry up and the FHLB doesn't demand more reserves against those assets. If either happens at the wrong time, policyholders may demand their money back, creating a massive liquidity problem.
“that can happen at the same time on the same balance sheet that commercial real estate is an absolute disaster and also not marked correctly.”at 31:34
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Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Rate spike will slow CRE transaction volume, make refinancing harder and pressure property valuations.
Jerry says the jump in the 10-year yield, which is the base rate for real estate lending, is hitting every conversation he has. He expects it to slow transaction volume, make refinancings harder than they were, and put pressure on valuations. He describes these as multiple headwinds at once. He still frames them as opportunities for well-capitalized or inventive investors, and says the right response is caution plus opportunism, not fear.
“It's gonna slow down transaction volume for sure. It's gonna make refis trickier than they were, and it's gonna put pressure on valuation.”at 3:37
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Still avoiding office broadly; office is far more diverse and much of it has no long-term use case.
Jerry says his firm is still staying away from office almost categorically. He separates the few clear winners from a large group of assets that are hard to predict. He argues the pain is not in the shiny downtown towers, which are class A, new, and leased to large companies, but in suburban office, small-town office, and other older buildings where the long-term use case is much harder to argue for. He notes the picture is micro: buying downtown San Francisco may have caught the AI-driven upswing, but downtown Dallas probably would not have.
“Still staying away from office almost categorically.”at 7:48
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Multifamily valuations are tough, but cash flows persist and oversupply is being worked through.
Jerry says multifamily is a sector his firm has liked for a long time. Valuations are tough and returns have fallen, with occupancy issues and concessions as headwinds. But cash flows have not disappeared, so an owner does not lose half the building the way office owners can. Lenders can take more time rather than being forced into negative carry. He thinks the market has worked through a good amount of the oversupply that everyone has heard about. There is still a long-term need for the product. The uncertainty is timing: how quickly supply comes back before income grows and where rates settle for valuations. He still sees more safety there than anywhere else in CRE.
“it's much different than, you know, a sector which I've liked for a long time, which is multifamily, where, look, valuations are tough, but cash flows haven't disappeared.”at 8:04
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Real estate is not a one-to-one substitute for Treasuries; asset value and rent growth matter.
Jerry says comparing Treasuries and real estate is apples and oranges. Treasuries do not appreciate and do not produce rent growth, so a 5% Treasury yield does not mean cap rates should be 5.5%. A good asset run well can compound returns over a decade, and it is a hard asset that can be worth more at the end. Real estate can also be a better inflation hedge over time because rents should rise with other prices, though there have been exceptions.
“treasuries don't appreciate in value and you don't get rent growth on treasuries. And just because treasuries are 5% doesn't mean cap rates should be five and a half percent.”at 11:30
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Rate spike will make other lenders overly cautious, leaving room for disciplined lenders like his firm.
Jerry says competition is never zero: he competes with other debt funds as well as banks and insurers. He argues the rate run-up will pull things back and cause fear and extreme caution among other lenders. He argues the differentiator is consistency: staying within guardrails while remaining active in the market. In his view this is a time when disciplined lenders can differentiate themselves.
“I can tell you this run up in rates will will pull things back. This will cause some fear. Panic might be too strong a word, but extreme caution by other lenders.”at 14:30
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Maturing CRE loans must be resolved, so more recapitalizations or foreclosures are coming.
Loans made in 2021 and early 2022 at much richer valuations are maturing, including five-year agency loans, floating-rate value-add loans with extensions, and some seven-year bank loans. Lenders have kicked many of these down the road because nobody wants to foreclose in a messy market. Jerry argues they eventually have to be resolved. Owners will have to recapitalize, bring in subordinate partners, or the assets will go to foreclosure. He calls this a form of capitulation that is not a terrible outcome because it clears the market. Michael adds that he expects foreclosures to hit the market over the next year or so. Record origination in the early 2020s also has to be reckoned with in the next couple of years.
“You're either gonna have to re up and recapitalize some of these things, bring in some sort of subordinate partner to sustain it, or... you're gonna see more foreclosures”at 16:14
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Downturn split CRE outcomes: nicest, best-capitalized assets held value while older Sunbelt stock fell harder.
Jerry says a lot of money still chases the multifamily-in-the-Sunbelt story, and the focus on multifamily has only grown. The results were bifurcated. Newer, nicer assets did not see the same value depression as roughly thirty-year-old stock in the Sunbelt. The best-capitalized institutional investors moved to the nicest assets, which preserved more value, while the other bucket saw more severe outcomes. He says it is not as simple as everyone moving to Dallas or Austin. Results are very micro and asset-specific.
“The nicest assets preserved more value, but the other bucket had more severity in terms of outcome.”at 17:29
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Construction debt at 8-10% has depressed building, setting up a cyclical supply rebound in a few years.
Jerry says construction debt used to cost 5 to 6 percent and now costs 8 to 10 percent or more, depending on project risk. That doubling of the cost of capital makes developers reluctant to start projects. Multifamily construction is already fairly depressed after a wave of supply, and he expects it to snap back in a few years and start another cycle. He says this is why real estate is so cyclical: oversupply, then no one builds, then undersupply and everyone builds again. Building now means delivering into a supply picture that is hard to predict precisely.
“Everyone built everything in the world when you could borrow construction debt at 5% or 6%, but now it doubled.”at 19:00
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Industrial warehouse is a top allocation where banks have pulled back and his firm steps in as lender.
Jerry says industrial is his firm's second-largest asset allocation over the last couple of years and probably its biggest growth area. The main reason is that capital providers, especially banks, have stepped back for years. Industrial is one of the most acute spots in the market where capital has pulled back. That gives his firm room to step in as an alternative credit provider and take market share.
“We do a decent amount of industrial. I think it's been our second largest asset allocation the last couple years and probably the biggest growth part of our portfolio.”at 19:45
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Hospitality looks fine; resilient consumer spending means no near-term storm clouds for the sector.
Jerry says hospitality still generally looks good. The economy is running well, and the consumer seems pressured but remains remarkably resilient, with a high amount of disposable income and strong spending that has flowed through to hotels. He says he is not super bullish, but the sector has been fairly consistent and he sees no near-term storm clouds. He adds that inflation can help grow rents and ADR across asset classes, including hotels.
“I wouldn't say I'm super bullish on it, but I feel like it's been fairly consistent and you don't see any near term storm clouds on the horizon.”at 22:49
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
Jerry Baglien · Benefit Street Partners
Less optimistic on CRE equity until cap rates adjust; credit offers more cushion and conviction.
Jerry is less optimistic on real estate equity on a mathematical basis until cap rates adjust, because there is no negative leverage yet. Credit looks better to him for two reasons. There are plenty of transactions that need financing. He also says he cannot predict valuations or rates, so he prefers to invest where he has a cushion of equity beneath his position in the capital stack. He expects more twists and turns before the sector's problems are sorted, and sees this as a good time to be a lender. His conviction is higher, not lower, because of the correction.
“perspective today until you get some cap rate adjustments, you don't have negative leverage. It makes me like credit all the more.”at 24:59
Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book: How Higher Rates Are Re-Shaping Commercial Real Estate ·
DCP
Commercial real estate refinancing at higher rates will be ugly
He says that higher long-end yields near 6% will crush some people, and that refinancing of CRE debt will be ugly. He raises CRE as one of the stress points alongside regional banks and private credit, though he gives no data on CRE loan maturities here.
“If you've got a refi out of some stuff, it's going to be ugly.”at 41:46
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