Speaker · Updated
Tim Travis: latest market views
Value Options Letter
Summary
CEO of Value Options Letter and Tobias Carlisle's co-host on its podcast, a research publication that pairs value investing with conservative Buffett-style options strategies such as cash-secured puts and covered calls.
Chorus has 21 views from Tim Travis across 2 episodes on The Acquirers Podcast since October 17, 2026. Their latest calls: bullish on Agree Realty, Blue Owl Technology Finance, Meta Platforms and MGM Resorts International; bearish on Apple, Caesars Entertainment and NVIDIA.
Where they stand
Their latest bullish or bearish call on each company.
- Agree RealtyBullish ·
- AppleBearish ·
- Blue Owl Technology FinanceBullish ·
- Caesars EntertainmentBearish ·
- Meta PlatformsBullish ·
- MGM Resorts InternationalBullish ·
- Micron TechnologyBullish ·
- Morgan Stanley Direct Lending FundBullish ·
- NVIDIABearish ·
- VICI PropertiesBullish ·
What they talk about most
- US stock market outlook · 2
- Agree Realty · 1
- AI: overall outlook · 1
- Apple · 1
- Blue Owl Technology Finance · 1
- Commercial real estate · 1
- US housing · 1
- AI infrastructure & data centers · 1
- AI pricing & unit economics · 1
- Banks · 1
- Caesars Entertainment · 1
- Meta Platforms · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
AppleBearish
Apple looks expensive at 11-12 times sales despite not spending heavily on AI.
Travis says Apple may be the best-performing of the big tech stocks, even though it has not spent the money on AI like the hyperscalers have. He says it trades at about 11 to 12 times sales, which looks expensive to him. His view is that the valuation is stretched relative to its AI spending.
“Apple, which hasn't hasn't spent the money. And I think it's getting at, like, 11 or 12 times sales right now. They're expensive. It looks expensive to me.”at 5:49
The Acquirers Podcast: Why Buffett Would Be Short the “AI Horses” Right Now ·
Blue Owl Technology FinanceBullish
Blue Owl Technology's discount to NAV implies implausible defaults; valuation looks too low.
Travis trades around the Blue Owl Technology discount to net asset value. He says that if 50% of defaults are recovered, 48% of the portfolio would have to default for the price to be justified. Average loan-to-value is roughly 40-70%, net charge-offs are about 0.1%, and the portfolio holds over 200 companies, so a single default is not material. He notes software has historically been the best-performing sector and the loans run off in about three years. He says these valuations truly do not make sense.
“If you assume 50% recoveries on its defaults, 48% of the portfolio would have to default.”at 14:21
The Acquirers Podcast: Why Buffett Would Be Short the “AI Horses” Right Now ·
Agree RealtyBullish
Agree Realty is high quality and cheap at about 13 times cash flow with a 5% dividend.
Travis says Agree Realty reported good earnings but trades at a large discount to where it has been, around $65 a share, roughly 13 times cash flow. It pays a monthly dividend yielding about 5%. He points to $2 billion of liquidity, occupancy above 99%, and high-quality tenants like Home Depot and Lowe's. He says it is small enough to grow at a good rate.
“It's about 13 times cash flow, and it pays about a 5% dividend that's monthly. And it's just really high quality. They have $2,000,000,000 of liquidity. Occupancies over 99%.”at 19:08
The Acquirers Podcast: Why Buffett Would Be Short the “AI Horses” Right Now ·
Commercial real estate, excluding offices, is attractive now for a five-year horizon.
Travis says that if you believe in commercial real estate, setting aside office space, and have a five-year horizon, now is a really attractive time. He notes that REITs are raising third-party capital at reasonable cap rates, which lowers their cost of capital and leverage. The caveat is a 1970s or 1980s scenario of persistent inflation and high interest rates.
“And if you have a five year time horizon, now is a really attractive time unless you think that it's gonna be nineteen seventies, nineteen eighties...”at 20:17
The Acquirers Podcast: Why Buffett Would Be Short the “AI Horses” Right Now ·
AI will ultimately be deflationary, but wartime and AI demand are inflating memory, compute and energy costs.
Travis says he firmly believes AI will ultimately be deflationary. He argues the efficiency gains are being lost because the memory, compute and energy inputs are being pushed up sharply by wars and by AI demand.
“I am a firm believer that AI ultimately will be deflationary. I think that it's a shame, honestly, that... Because the memory and the compute and the energy is being pushed so high through the wars and then through the AI demand.”at 20:32
The Acquirers Podcast: Why Buffett Would Be Short the “AI Horses” Right Now ·
US housing is weak because high rates and high prices are pulling homes off the market.
Travis says the home-related sector, including builders, cabinet makers and appliance makers like Whirlpool, has been demolished. He attributes this to higher interest rates and prices that are too high. Buyers are not paying the prices, so sellers take their homes off the market. Homeowners with locked-in low mortgage rates have little reason to sell.
“That whole sector is demolished... It's higher interest rates. It's too high of prices.”at 23:19
The Acquirers Podcast: Why Buffett Would Be Short the “AI Horses” Right Now ·
AI megacap concentration in the S&P 500 could trigger a 50% decline if it breaks.
Travis says the S&P 500 is about 50% AI-related and the top 15 companies are around 47% of the index, which is extremely concentrated. He argues that if that concentration breaks, the index could see a 50% decline. He describes this as a backed-in trade, though he remains bullish on America.
“That's 50% AI right now. I think the top 15 companies are... It's like 47% at least. It's so concentrated now... If that damn breaks, man... You could see absolutely a 50% decline, in my opinion.”at 27:03
The Acquirers Podcast: Why Buffett Would Be Short the “AI Horses” Right Now ·
AI infrastructure & data centers
Hyperscaler capex hits free cash flow far harder than earnings, so capex returns will matter most.
Hyperscalers are spending roughly $600 billion. Depreciation is only about a fifth or a sixth of that, so reported earnings take a much smaller hit than free cash flow. What ultimately matters is the return on that capex. Tim notes Michael Burry's doubts about GPU depreciation. Despite this, he still thinks the hyperscalers are decent values.
“They're not taking nearly as big of a hit to earnings as as they are to to free cash flow. And so what ultimately will matter is what's the ROI, you know, on that CapEx.”at 7:13
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
Micron TechnologyBullish
Micron is very cheap at 5.4x forward earnings if its oligopoly-driven earnings are sustainable.
Micron is an oligopoly with two or three major memory suppliers, so reduced competition has changed the industry's dynamics. Margins are very high and the company is sold out for about two years. It trades at about 5.4x forward earnings, so it is very cheap if those earnings hold. The main risk is China entering memory, which could hurt pricing. Tim says high memory prices are already hurting end markets such as iPhone sales.
“it's an oligopoly. There's, you know, two or three major suppliers... And the margins are just insane. I mean, they're sold out for, I think, like, two years... It's trading at 5.41 forward earnings. So it's very cheap if you, you know, believe the earnings are sustainable.”at 7:35
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
AI firms' heavy spending needs profitability, but pricing power looks doubtful amid many options.
With so many AI product options available, Tim questions what pricing power these businesses have. AI companies are spending large amounts of equity and debt. He argues they will eventually need profitability to justify that spending.
“what what is the pricing power of the business? ... You need profitability to justify that at some point because you're just spending, you know, equity and debt as well.”at 9:42
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
Meta PlatformsBullish
Meta was dirt cheap; Zuckerberg's Muse AI strategy is a home run that should keep improving.
Tim thought Meta was dirt cheap for a while. He likes Mark Zuckerberg's strategy of putting the Muse AI product out in the market and calls it a home run. He expects the position to keep getting better.
“I thought Meta was dirt cheap for a while, and, I mean, I like... Mark Zuckerberg's strategy on Muse and how he's putting it out there. I mean, what a home run. And it it seems like it's gonna keep getting better.”at 10:26
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
Caesars EntertainmentBearish
Caesars carries a much weaker balance sheet than MGM.
Tim compares Caesars with MGM and says Caesars has a lot more balance-sheet risk. He gives no specific leverage figures. He also notes that MGM generates a lot of free cash flow.
“Caesars has a lot more hair in my opinion as far as the balance sheet than MGM.”at 14:52
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
MGM Resorts InternationalBullish
MGM is deeply undervalued after the collapsed deal, trading near $29 versus a $45-48 bid.
Tim sold his MGM position into the earlier acquisition, which he thought was fairly priced given regulatory risk. Rising rates made the debt financing overwhelming, and the deal blew up in September. The stock fell to about $29 from a bid around $45-46, and he sees that as too far down. MGM generates a lot of free cash flow and has Macau exposure and a planned Japan casino. Its balance sheet is also stronger than Caesars'. He also says AI and online gambling are a risk, though BetMGM gives it exposure to online betting.
“MGM generates a ton of free cash flow, and they've got, you know, Macau. Macau has been down a little bit. They also have the development coming in Japan.”at 14:59
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
VICI PropertiesBullish
VICI is an obvious undervaluation at 10x cash flow with an 8% dividend that keeps rising.
VICI is a REIT with 100% occupancy and leases of about 40 years, with Caesars and MGM as tenants. Concentration risk exists, and the tenants are diversifying. Buying at about 10x cash flow gives an 8% dividend that has been raised repeatedly, most recently again. Tim compares it with rental-property cap rates and calls it an obvious undervaluation.
“You're buying it at 10 times cash flow, and you're getting an 8% dividend that's gone up. It keeps going up. They just raised it again.”at 16:07
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
Consumers are disillusioned; nominal wage gains are not lifting real living standards.
Employment is good and wages are rising, but those gains are nominal. Tim argues that quality of life is not that high and that people are disillusioned. He links this to a weak consumer-facing stock market and the current war, which is unpopular even among conservatives.
“But quality of living and stuff like that, I don't think it's that high. I think that people are disillusioned.”at 17:18
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
The war is unpopular with no near-term resolution, so it will keep weighing on the economy.
Tim says the war is not popular, even with conservatives. He sees no outcome that would resolve it and no solution that would improve things in the short run. He calls this a dreary time for the American economy outside AI.
“no solution that's gonna make things better, in the short run at least. So... And it's kind of a dreary time for the American economy outside of AI.”at 17:40
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
The ten-year yield fell after a hot CPI, likely because markets expect faster Fed hikes.
The CPI print was bad, yet the ten-year yield fell and bonds rallied. Tim suggests the market may be expecting even worse inflation. He also thinks the Fed might hike sooner, and that quicker hikes could push long-term rates down more quickly.
“the CPI was so bad today, and the ten years actually... The yield's gone down. Bonds have actually rallied a little bit today... They might hike sooner.”at 19:10
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
NVIDIABearish
Hyperscalers' custom chips are a long-term competitive threat to Nvidia, despite its cheap P/E.
On a P/E basis Nvidia looks fairly cheap again. However, hyperscalers are building their own chips, using Broadcom and designing their own, which are more energy efficient. Amazon, Google and Microsoft already have viable TPUs and chips, which Tim sees as a challenging competitive threat over the long term.
“it looks fairly cheap once again on the ETH part of it. But... that's a pretty challenging competitive threat out there, I would think, long term.”at 20:52
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
Dividend and quality stocks sold off to cheap valuations, a real long-term opportunity.
Dividend-paying stocks have been crushed, including utilities, real estate, Pepsi and McDonald's. Quality names such as these now trade at some of the cheapest valuations Tim has seen. He thinks there is real opportunity for long-term investors, because the selloff reflects short-term fear. About 80% of stocks are down more than 10%, and momentum is poor across most of the market.
“Anything that... Like, all the dividend stuff's gotten crushed... quality like Pepsi, quality like McDonald's... trading at some of the cheaper valuations you've seen. I think there's real opportunity there for the long term investors.”at 26:39
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
Bank credit quality is strong, but bank valuations have run well above book value.
Tim says bank credit quality is good, and really good. Valuations, however, are much higher. Citi trades at a large premium to tangible book value after historically lagging, and many banks trade at two to three times book value.
“bank credit quality is good. It... It's really good, actually. The valuations are way higher. I mean, you have Citi trading at a pretty large premium to tangible book value now.”at 27:22
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending FundBullish
MSDL trades at 67 cents on the dollar, pricing in far worse than history's credit losses.
Tim owns MSDL, a BDC trading at about 67 cents on the dollar. Non-performing loans are about 1.8% at fair value, against a long-run average near 1% since 2004. Even in 2009, credit losses were about 6.9%. The price implies all loans recover only about 74 cents on the dollar, far beyond a Great Recession scenario. The loans are adjustable rate, so they benefit from higher rates. The yield is about 13%. A dividend cut would not change the discount to NAV.
“it's trading at, like, 67¢ on the dollar... what's priced in right now for MSDL is that all of their loans would have to only recover, like, 74¢ on the dollar.”at 27:58
The Acquirers Podcast: MGM and VICI: Finding Value in the Las Vegas Selloff | Value Options Podcast ·
Shows
- The Acquirers Podcast · 2 episodes
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