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What podcasters are saying about Agriculture & food commodities
Summary
In the past 30 days, 11 speakers on 9 finance podcasts discussed Agriculture & food commodities in 27 views. Chorus has followed Agriculture & food commodities since September 25, 2026: 28 views from 12 speakers on 10 shows.
Who talks about it most
- Joel Salatin · 14
- Chris Whalen · 3
- Peter Grandich · 2
- Luke Gromen · 1
- Patrick Ceresna · 1
- Christine Lagarde · 1
- Vincent Deluard · 1
- Ole Hansen · 1
- Anas Alhajji · 1
- Daniel Yergin · 1
The latest views
Newest first. Every quote is checked against the episode's transcript.
Luke Gromen · Forest for the Trees (FFTT)
Fertilizer unaffordability will hit food inflation next year; row crop prices may dip at first.
Gromen hears that in some emerging markets fertilizer is too expensive to order, so demand for it is falling because the marginal farmer, especially in lower-income countries, cannot afford it. That means fertilizer is not bought or applied. The food-inflation problem therefore does not show up this year. It should appear in lower crop yields next year if fertilizer is not applied. Because of the lower demand, row crop prices might be somewhat bearish at first, even though the longer-run effect is very bullish for prices.
“the first stage of a real problem that will show up in food inflation around the world, it's not gonna show up this year. It's gonna show up in theory in lower yields next year if fertilizer isn't bought and applied”at 3:09
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Patrick Ceresna · Big Picture Trading
The higher USDA corn crop forecast undermines the scarcity story, and speculators are being shaken out of the trade.
The USDA raised its corn production forecast to 234 million bushels on higher yields. That is less supportive of the bullish scarcity story. This comes weeks after large speculators had some of their most bullish corn positioning. Roughly 166,000 net contracts were sold over the last two weeks, a mix of long liquidation and fresh shorting. Ceresna sees traders being shaken out of a trade that has turned from very bullish to aggressively washed out, and he will keep watching it.
“It's a higher yield, less supportive of the bullish scarcity story. This is happening after just a few weeks ago. We saw some of the highest positioning scores for large speculators in terms of being bullishly positioned on corn.”at 53:22
MacroVoices: MacroVoices #556 Luke Gromen: US Midterms & Beyond ·
Christine Lagarde · European Central Bank
Extreme weather and El Niño could push food prices up more than expected.
Extreme weather events, potentially intensified by El Niño conditions, and the broader climate and nature crisis could drive up food prices more than expected. Food price inflation has already edged up to 1.3% in September from 1.1% in August. The ECB flags this as an upside risk to its inflation outlook.
“Extreme weather events, potentially reinforced by intensifying El Nino conditions, and the unfolding climate and nature crisis more broadly could drive up food prices by more than expected.”at 9:57
ECB press conferences and Euro Matters (ECB podcast): President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 29 October 2026 ·
Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
Middle East fertilizer disruption will cause global food shortages in 2027.
Grandich says the Middle East crisis is under-discussed in its effects on food. Fertilizer supply was disrupted, so farmers could not do normal planting, growing and animal feeding in some areas. He expects these effects to show up in 2027, with certain regions facing dramatic food shortages. He also flags diesel as a bigger worry than gasoline, since US goods move by trucking and diesel is trucking's largest single cost.
“I believe we're gonna see more of the effect [...] in 2027. And that is how this coming food shortage that's gonna be in the world because of the lack of fertilization”at 13:27
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Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
US agriculture is in the doldrums, with farm bankruptcies doubling in 2025 versus 2024.
Salatin argues agriculture is in a downturn. He cites WSJ carrying agriculture stories every two days as a sign of trouble, farm bankruptcies doubling from 2024 to 2025, soybean farmers losing about $100 an acre in 2025, and USDA projecting corn farmers will lose $100 to $200 an acre this year. He compares the current stress to the early 2000s, when there were thousands of bankruptcies and suicide hotlines were set up.
“the basic theme throughout agriculture right now is that agriculture is in the doldrums.”at 1:29
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
300,000 metric tons of cheap lean trim imports knocked the cattle market down 10% overnight.
Salatin says the administration brought in 300,000 metric tons of subsidized, below-market lean trim, and the cattle market fell 10% overnight. In his area, ranchers are boycotting the sale barn and holding back fall calves while waiting for the 90-day import measure to run its course and prices to recover. He frames the imports as a distortion that a subsidized foreign product can cause.
“Trump brought in this 300,000 metric tons of subsidized below market lean trim. And it dropped the cattle market 10% literally overnight.”at 2:31
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Beef cattle are the canary in the coal mine; their weakness will spread across US agriculture.
Salatin argues the cattle sector is a leading indicator for American agriculture. Beef cattle return the least income per acre of any farm enterprise, so they sit at the bottom of the income barrel. Cattle farmers are also 5 to 10 years older than other farmers, and most cattle operations are hobbies run by people with off-farm jobs. Input costs for labor, land, energy and diesel have risen faster since 2006 than beef prices, so margins are squeezed even at high beef prices. He expects the system's weaknesses to show up across agriculture about five to ten years out, while admitting he is not a prophet.
“I think the cattle right now are the canary in the coal mine.”at 5:15
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Chemical-free biological farms are insulated from fertilizer price spikes like the 2022 nitrogen surge.
Salatin says his farm buys no fertilizer, herbicides or other chemicals and relies on compost, biology and in-situ fertility. When nitrogen prices rose about 400% within weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, his farm was unaffected. He argues conventional row-crop farms that depend on bought inputs are exposed to these input shocks, which feed into the broader cost pressure on agriculture.
“when Putin invaded Ukraine and nitrogen went up 400%, think about that, in literally in weeks, it didn't affect our farm at all because we don't buy any of it.”at 10:12
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
US crop output exceeds demand: half the soybean crop is exported and corn feeds subsidized ethanol.
Salatin argues the crops US farmers grow are not what the world needs. About half the US soybean crop is exported and not used domestically. Almost half the corn goes to heavily subsidized ethanol, and about half the alfalfa, much of it irrigated, is exported to Japan and Saudi Arabia to feed racehorses. He says up to a third of US output never goes to food, which makes the system fragile.
“the world simply doesn't need the crops that we're producing right now... Right now, half of the American soybean crop is exported.”at 10:50
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Farmland prices already falling about 10% on higher interest rates, unwinding a COVID-era bubble.
Salatin says land prices in his area dropped substantially over the last year because of higher interest rates. In the last three or four months they fell about 10%, for example from $10,000 to $9,000 an acre. He ties the earlier run-up to COVID-era stimulus and wealthy buyers seeking safe havens, which he calls an artificially inflated bubble. That pressure has now dissipated.
“In the last three or four months, we've seen them actually drop fairly substantially. I mean, like, you know, 10% probably.”at 21:39
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Farmers' share of the retail food dollar fell from 40 cents to 5.8 cents, driven by convenience food.
Salatin cites the farmer's share of the grocery dollar falling from about 40 cents over the last seventy years to 5.8 cents today. He attributes this to the convenience food movement, where more processing and handling happen before food reaches the kitchen. As the farmer's share shrinks, the farm-gate value of commodity production drops.
“in other words, if somebody bought a dollar at the grocery store, the farmer got 40¢ of it. Today the farmer gets 5.8¢ of that dollar, which is indicative of the convenience food movement.”at 22:42
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Direct-to-consumer sales let a stacked pasture farm earn far more per acre than commodity crops.
Salatin says his farm grosses over $30,000 an acre by stacking cattle, broilers, laying hens and turkeys on the same acres at different times and selling retail. A good corn farm might make about $800 an acre. He also gives an example in which a $2.20 pastured bird on about 600 birds per acre grosses $12,000 an acre. If the bird is sold as a boxed chicken pot pie for about $200, the gross rises to $120,000 an acre. The gain comes from capturing the retail dollar.
“we're taking in over $30,000 an acre gross on what we're doing.”at 24:23
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Buying rural farmland is a way to protect wealth; land ownership is economic defense.
Salatin relays a view from his mentor that land ownership is economic defense and land management is economic offense. He says that with money to protect, buying rural land is the way to do it. He notes that his farm has helped seven people buy land that the farm then manages for them, while they keep their town jobs. He presents this as an alternative to a traditional 401(k).
“So if you have money and you want to protect it, you buy land, especially rural land.”at 25:33
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Converting 1,000 acres from soybeans to intensive cattle costs about $300,000, equal to one year's soy inputs.
Salatin ran an analysis of a hypothetical 1,000-acre Nebraska soybean farm converting to intensively managed cattle. Fencing, water and other infrastructure come to about $300,000 in one-time capital. That equals what the farm spends each year to plant a soybean crop, so he calls it a once-a-century capital cost. He notes the main hurdle is buying the cattle at today's high prices.
“The entire capital conversion was $300,000. Guess what? That's exactly what it costs to put in every year a soybean crop.”at 29:39
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Food regulation favors big packers; small processors pay several times more per animal.
Salatin says four companies (Tyson, Cargill, JBS and National Beef) process 85% of US beef. He argues the answer is not antitrust litigation but letting more farmers reach the market. Federal inspection requirements are scale-prejudicial. His federally inspected slaughterhouse spends about $650 to process a beef, versus about $150 at Tyson. Requirements such as an inspector's office and bathroom are spread over about 50 beef a week, against 5,000 a day at Tyson. Hides that a small plant cannot fill a container with end up in landfill.
“It takes us roughly $650 to do to a beef what Tyson does for $150”at 38:57
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Synthetic materials replaced leather, collapsing hide values to near zero for livestock producers.
Salatin recalls that hides once fetched about $50 each. He says that hides now have close to zero value because synthetic nylon and polyester now go into car seats instead of leather. He describes the impact on a small farm, which can lose about $100,000 a year from the drop in hide income. The mechanism is substitution away from leather in auto interiors, which removed demand for a livestock byproduct.
“I'm old enough to remember when we used to get $50 for a hide. And so suddenly a small plant just lose $100,000 a year because of synthetic nylon and polyester materials that now go into car seats instead of leather car seats.”at 39:49
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Food-processing regulation makes small-scale value-added production uneconomic, favoring megafarms.
Salatin says that to sell a heat-and-eat chicken pot pie to consumers, he would need a $500,000 inspected, licensed, zoned commissary, which makes small-scale chicken production not worth pursuing. He says the same pattern applies to every value-added route, such as a poultry slaughterhouse, a big kitchen or a food truck, where a bureaucrat can block the operation unless the farmer makes a roughly $300,000 investment. He argues this regulatory burden favors the mega-operators and stifles embryonic startups. He notes that only about 5% of American food is processed and packaged outside the home, a share he says has never been higher, so the scale-up barrier is a key constraint on the sector.
“in order for me to get that chicken to you, I now have to have a $500,000 inspected, licensed, zoned commissary.”at 41:17
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Joel Salatin · Polyface Farm
Passive farmland buying is a poor bet; invest in direct-marketing, value-adding farmers instead.
Salatin says he sees no great future in simply buying farmland that is being abused, unprofitable and on a downhill trajectory. His alternative is to find farmers who direct market and value-add, ask whether they could use more land, and then enable them to expand. The implied investment is in the operator's business model and savvy, not in land as a passive asset. He backs this with his own examples: a whole-animal, direct-to-consumer model where processing and retail are kept in-house, and his argument that the independent farmer is the growth opportunity.
“I don't see a great future in simply buying land that is continuing to be abused and unprofitable and on this downhill trajectory. So find your person and invest in that person's savvy.”at 47:33
Wealthion: Where Joel Salatin Would Invest $1 Million in Agriculture ·
Peter Grandich · Peter Grandich & Company
Fertiliser shortages from the Middle East crisis will cause food shortages in some regions in 2027.
Grandich believes the effects of the Middle East crisis will show up more in 2027 through a coming world food shortage. The Gulf disruption reduced fertiliser supply, so farmers could not do normal planting, growing and feeding of animals. He expects some areas of the world to see dramatic food shortages. He sees this as under-discussed relative to its importance.
“And that is how this coming food shortage that's gonna be in the world because of the lack of fertilization that was able to get out and do the typical planting and growing.”at 13:41
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Vincent Deluard · StoneX
Agriculture is the biggest risk: the energy shock is likely to become a food shock in 2027.
Diesel is central to farming, so the diesel shock passes through into farm prices. Fertilizer is stuck in the Middle East, which cuts yields and keeps prices high. Wheat, corn, rice and soybeans are up 25–30% this year. El Niño, with Pacific temperatures about five degrees above normal, brings heavy rain to Brazil and Argentina and monsoon failure in East Asia. Heat and drought turned France from a grain exporter into an importer, and Black Sea grain is stuck. These pressures could destabilise import-dependent countries such as Egypt and Pakistan.
“I would be most worried about the ag part of the equation, because I think this is where you have the biggest concentration of risks and spillover.”at 18:40
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Ole Hansen · Saxo Bank
Grains' 14% fall is a hedge-fund unwind; harvest supply and super El Nino risk keep prices volatile.
The Bloomberg grains index fell 14% in about six weeks, almost fully reversing August's rally. That rally was driven by higher production costs, including diesel and fertilizer, weather worries and heavy speculative buying by hedge funds. Hedge funds are not tied to positions, so they have been exiting. Some speculative long positions may still pressure prices. Harvest selling in the US and winter-crop harvests elsewhere add supply. Looking ahead, a potentially super El Nino could bring hot, dry or flooding weather, so the sector should stay volatile in coming months.
“But unfortunately, what that did as well was it drove a massive amount of speculative interest from hedge funds. And once again, as I said earlier, hedge funds are not married to the position.”at 35:06
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Anas Alhajji · Energy Outlook Advisors
A poor Indian monsoon and El Niño are causing a global sugar crisis that will cut ethanol and raise fuel prices.
A bad monsoon and El Niño have produced this year's worst sugarcane crop in about eleven years, per Anas. India is the largest sugar consumer and second-largest producer. When sugar prices rise, cane is diverted from ethanol to sugar. Ethanol, mandated in several countries including India, becomes short. Brazil, the top ethanol producer, will see the same effect, so ethanol and fuel prices will rise.
“we do have a global sugar crisis, simply because of El Nino... the sugar king crop basically this year is the worst in, if I remember correctly, in like eleven years.”at 27:36
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Chris Whalen · Whalen Global Advisors LLC
Food prices will rise next year as farmers cannot afford fertilizer after the Iran war sulfur shortage.
Whalen expects food prices to be higher next year. The Iran war cut sulfur supply to the global market, and sulfur is mainly used to make fertilizer. Higher diesel prices and lower expected farmland yields next year mean farmers cannot afford fertilizer. He says this is a global problem, not just a US one, and consumers will face higher food prices going into the spring.
“I think energy prices are gonna stay elevated for a while. Also, food prices are likely to go higher next year because farmers can't afford to buy fertilizer.”at 30:27
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Daniel Yergin · S&P Global
Fertilizer, diesel and El Niño disruptions could trigger a serious global food crisis, lasting into 2027.
Sulfur is cut off from the Gulf, which hits fertilizer supply alongside natural gas. Diesel prices have surged, and farmers in Iowa are paying 80% more. El Niño is adding to the pressure, and India's sugar crop is down. South Africa imports 80% of its fertilizer, and fertilizer costs have doubled there. Rice from Thailand is up 43%. Yergin connects these data points into a potential serious food crisis if the conflicts continue. Unlike oil, the effect unfolds with planting and harvesting seasons, so the disruption could run well into 2027. Food inflation was one of the causes of the Arab Spring, so the risk is significant.
“...sulfur is very important. It's cut off from The Gulf. You look at fertilizer, you look at diesel prices, which I know you've been talking about, but farmers in Iowa are paying 80% more for diesel. ... So we're looking at something that could go well into 2027 in terms of disruption of global food supply.”at 28:06
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Chris Whalen · Whalen Global Advisors LLC
High fertilizer prices will cut next year's fertilizer use, leading to less food and higher prices.
Fertilizer prices are so high that farmers are not buying it. Producers will stop making it as a result, so fertilizer use will fall next year. Whalen says this means less food and higher food prices. He presents it as one of the ways the energy shock spreads through the whole food chain.
“You see this very much in the farm sector, Julia, where fertilizer prices are so high that farmers just aren't buying it. And so the producers are gonna stop making it, and you're gonna see less fertilizer use next year, which means we'll have less food and prices will go higher.”at 12:27
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Jeff Snider · Atlas Financial
Diesel cost spikes will squeeze farmers, cutting machinery use and planting, and eventually raising food prices.
Snider cites Australian farmers facing diesel costs more than 50% higher than a year earlier just as they begin harvesting what could be the country's fourth largest crop on record, with some growers holding only about a week of fuel storage while harvesting runs four to six weeks. A Brazilian rice and soybean farmer reports diesel up roughly 40% since the war began, and deliveries must now be planned further ahead. This comes as major agricultural regions enter fuel-intensive parts of the calendar: wheat harvesting in Australia and Argentina, planting in Brazil, and sowing in Europe and Russia. Snider says this does not guarantee a global food crisis, but farmers will respond by cutting machinery use, delaying planting, harvesting less efficiently or charging more. The first effect shows up in farm margins, and transport and processing add further costs before the increase reaches supermarket shelves.
“Farmers are going to reduce machinery use, they're going to delay planting, they're going to harvest less efficiently, or demand higher to cover their costs.”at 11:28
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Chris Whalen · Whalen Global Advisors LLC
Fertilizer use will fall by a third next year as farmers cannot afford it, cutting yields.
Whalen says farmers cannot afford diesel for machinery or fertilizer because of high energy prices. Fertilizer producers are shutting down because farmers cannot pay. He forecasts a one-third drop in fertilizer use next year, which means lower crop yields globally.
“We're going to see a one third decrease in the use of fertilizer next year. That means yields are going to fall. This is globally, by the way.”at 35:58
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DCP
Cattle market won't improve soon, so beef prices will go through the roof
He expects the cattle market to stay weak, pushing beef prices sharply higher. As evidence, his school catering business pays double for beef compared with three years ago. He also says farmers are paying high prices now for next year's fertilizer delivery, which points to higher food costs ahead.
“The cattle market's not gonna improve anytime soon. So your beef prices are gonna be through the roof.”at 9:41
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