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Excess Returns
The episodes Chorus has covered, newest first: what was said, by whom, with verified quotes.
Tech is Selling Off. AI Debt Fears Are Rising. So Why Does a $4B Manager See a Reverse Bubble?
Jay Hatfield, whose firm manages about $4B, argues that the AI infrastructure build-out is not a bubble, because long-term data center and power contracts with investment-grade tenants lock in…
The S&P 500 Is Just 50 Stocks. The Nasdaq Is a 67% AI Bet. Kai Wu on What Else Is Hiding in Your Funds
Kai Wu, analyzing holdings across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, AI-themed funds and factor ETFs, argues that US index diversification is largely illusory: about half the S&P 500 and roughly two-thirds of the…
Dr. Daniel Crosby on Behaviorally Optimal Portfolios, Risk Composure and the Casino Myth
Daniel Crosby, discussing behavioral finance and portfolio construction on Excess Returns, argues that sports betting and prediction-market apps are harming retail investors, who are drawn to them…
Baird's Tech Strategist Says This Isn't 2000. So Why Is He Warning Against Buying the Dip?
Baird's Ted Mortonson argues that the current AI and tech cycle differs fundamentally from 2000, since it is a secular shift affecting every industry, with infrastructure buildout running through…
Rob Arnott on the Hidden Costs of Passive Investing and the Real Winners From AI
Rob Arnott argues AI is a real and powerful productivity force, but that its economic gains will flow mainly to users across the economy rather than to AI builders, and that today's AI leaders are…
The S&P 500 Is Only 50 Stocks. 70% of the Index Is in a Correction. Did the Sell-Off Already Happen?
Paisley Nardini of TEMA argues that the S&P 500 is effectively only about 50 stocks because mega-cap concentration masks broad weakness, with roughly 70% of constituents already in a correction…
We Asked T. Rowe Price's $17B International Manager Why Value is Winning Again — and What the S&P 500 Leaves Out
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Tech Is Rolling Over. Yields Are Falling. Why Jim Paulsen is Watching the Walmart Recession Signal
Jim Paulsen argues that the US equity rally is far more concentrated than the index suggests: AI-linked names are up about 35% year to date and the Mag Seven about 45%, while the other seven S&P…
AI Productivity Is Real. 83% of Stocks Are 10% Off Highs. Why Does Barry Ritholtz Like Bonds Again?
Barry Ritholtz and Dave Nadig, joined by Matt Zeigler, debate whether AI productivity gains are real and what they mean for markets.
The Winners That Get Away | Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom on Holding Great Businesses
Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom discuss holding great businesses, with Davis warning that passive indexing amplifies momentum and that private AI giants entering the index could concentrate risk and…
Katie Stockton Still Sees a Bull Market. So Why Is Her ETF Only 50% in Stocks?
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies argues the secular US bull market remains intact, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at new highs on concentrated mega-cap leadership, even as breadth has weakened…
Tom Maher on Small-Cap Investing, AI Infrastructure and Opportunities Beyond Big Tech
Tom Maher argues that small and mid caps offer better value and earnings growth than mega-cap tech, expecting 20 to 30 percent earnings growth over the next few years driven by revenue from the AI…
Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious?
Ed Yardeni explains how he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, based on about $500 of earnings per share and a forward multiple near 20, while turning more cautious in the near term.