Closing Bell 10/26/26

Anthropic

Across the shows: 54 speakers in other episodes, 41 bullish and 39 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Jeff Richards · Notable CapitalBullish

  Anthropic's fundamentals are very strong: 900% NRR, 85% gross margin, $130B cash, and rising returns on compute.

  Anthropic's S-1 shows a strong balance sheet, with $130B in cash, and fast growth with 900% net revenue retention. It now generates $2 of revenue for every $1 of compute spend, up five times in a year. Gross margin is 85%, which shows the company gets better as it scales. Revenue growth of 1,300% has no equivalent in public software. He thinks investors buying today should see strong performance over three to five years.

  “when you look at the balance sheet, you look at the growth, you look at the underlying metrics with 900% NRR, you know, now generating $2 for every $1 of compute spend”at 16:15

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyBullish

  Anthropic's customer base is broadening sharply, reducing dependence on a few large clients.

  Customers spending $100K or more rose from 1,500 at the end of last year to 11,900. Five companies now make up 21% of revenue, versus two companies making up 25% previously. That derisks the business. If one large client leaves for OpenAI, growth can still be strong.

  “the customer broadening was really the most important stat that we saw in the s one today. And at the end of the year last year, they had 1,500 customers doing a 100,000 or more in business with them in the year. Fast forward, now they have 11,900.”at 17:58

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyUncertain

  Anthropic's revenue surge is driven by coding; whether it spreads to other sectors is the key risk.

  The revenue surge followed December 2025, when Anthropic's coding models became very strong, and many of the big numbers likely come from its coding business. The biggest risk is whether that impact can translate to the rest of the economy, such as biotech, pharma, and Claude Cowork. Without a similar surge in other areas, growth could stall, and Q3 numbers are not yet available.

  “the revenue surge that we've both talked about happened after December 2025 when the company's coding models got really good. ... the big question for that company, the biggest risk here is, can it translate its impact in coding to the rest of the of the economy?”at 19:44

• Alex Kantrowitz · Big TechnologyBullish

  Anthropic's IPO demand will be very high, so insider share sales won't blunt its momentum.

  Demand for Anthropic will be off the charts. Even if some employees and insiders sell after listing, that should not cause problems. Anthropic is one of two foundational AI companies in the race, and investors who sell it would need somewhere else to put the money. Insider sales will not blunt the momentum, in his view.

  “I think the demand for this company is gonna be off the charts. And so even if some employees are inside or sell, I don't think you're gonna see any problem with Anthropic.”at 23:37

Dollar Tree

• Matthew Boss · JPMorganBullish

  Dollar Tree is a preferred name because low-income employment and spending are holding up.

  His coverage of Dollar General and Dollar Tree centers on whether the low-income consumer has a job and fears losing it. Since low-income employment is the building block of spending, and he doesn't see AI hurting those jobs for now, he is overweight both names.

  “So we cover Dollar General, Dollar Tree. ... That's why you're overweight, both of those names.”at 31:46

Dollar General

• Matthew Boss · JPMorganBullish

  Dollar General is a preferred name because low-income employment and spending are holding up.

  His coverage of Dollar General and Dollar Tree centers on whether the low-income consumer has a job and fears losing it. Since low-income employment is the building block of spending, and he doesn't see AI hurting those jobs for now, he is overweight both names.

  “So we cover Dollar General, Dollar Tree. ... That's why you're overweight, both of those names.”at 31:46

Nike

Across the shows: 5 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 2 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Matthew Boss · JPMorganBearish

  Nike's sportswear and lifestyle half is declining double digits, so its turnaround needs a clear plan.

  Nike's business is split about 50/50 between performance and innovation, which is gaining, and lifestyle and sportswear, which is down double digits. Its running innovation is working, but the core issue is that half the business is in decline. Its sportswear lacks the performance credibility of rivals in categories where they are the first choice. The upcoming analyst day should lay out a two-phase plan.

  “It's the lifestyle and the sportswear 50% that's down double digits. ... The issue is 50% of the business is in decline.”at 34:19

Amer Sports

• Matthew Boss · JPMorganBullish

  Amer Sports is well positioned because its performance brands lead their categories.

  Authentic, performance-led and innovation-led businesses are working. Customers think of Salomon first in trail running and Wilson first in tennis and golf. Amer's business is largely tied to performance categories where it is the number one choice. That contrasts with Nike, which relies on sportswear.

  “If you look at trail running, they think about Solomon. If you think about tennis and golf, they're looking at Wilson.”at 35:22

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  Hyperscaler capex is not the AI-trade barometer; GPU rental rates and token demand are better peak indicators.

  Capex will not fall at Amazon or other hyperscalers. If hyperscalers cut spending, the demand shift would show up at neoclouds, which are consumers of capex rather than the capex itself. Focusing on capex plans is therefore misleading. GPU rental rates and token demand and utilization will be more indicative of an AI peak over time than any single quarter's capex data.

  “I should much more encourage people to focus on GPU rental rates, on token on token demand, token utilization. Things like that, I think, over time, will be more indicative of a peak”at 2:45

• Chris Harvey · CIBC Capital Markets

  Beaten-down AI industrial and power names should work once the election passes and data center rhetoric fades.

  Hyperscalers are in a good spot and there is still room in the AI trade. AI industrials have been beaten up badly. Once the election is past, the rhetoric around data centers should start to die down and those names can begin to work. This is why he is looking to play offense in the beaten-down industrial power names. He admits the narrative will not fully go away and that it will take some time.

  “What we also are looking at is the AI industrials, which have gotten really beaten up here. ... Once we get through the election, I think the rhetoric around the data centers start to die down, and those names can begin to work.”at 3:18

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  Data center political backlash will persist to the 2028 election, keeping AI headline risk alive.

  Democrats are expected to take control of the House, and the incoming Speaker and committee heads will make a lot of noise about data centers, which poll badly. Whether or not they take the Senate is largely irrelevant for headlines. This could lift GE Vernova and Vertiv for a couple of quarters, but the narrative is not going away and will run through the 2028 election.

  “I don't think that this this headline risk goes away anytime soon. That... It may be enough to get g, Vernova, and Vertiv, etcetera, higher for a couple of quarters, but I don't think that narrative is going away. I think that's with us straight to the the twenty twenty eight election.”at 4:14

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  CoreWeave's selloff is parent unsecured debt, not secured; neocloud contagion isn't evident yet.

  CoreWeave's selloff is in its parent unsecured debt, while its secured debt is doing fine. That is largely true across the neocloud space. The distinction is important even if some equity investors miss it. Neocloud demand matters because it eventually becomes hyperscaler capex. If financing markets tighten for these periphery AI players, that could ripple through the investment theme. That is not visible yet, and it will be watched through earnings season.

  “I don't think what's going on with Core Weave is sufficient for a number of reasons. ... the the core weave debt that's selling off is its parent unsecured debt. The the secured debt is doing fine.”at 5:19

US stock market outlook

• Chris Harvey · CIBC Capital Markets

  Equity markets are expected to go higher from here, with the firm moving to offense after its quality tilt.

  The firm has been up in quality since Labor Day and is now looking for opportunities and wants to play offense. Asked if equity markets go higher from here, he says yes. The offense is focused on beaten-down AI industrial and power names, which he expects the data center narrative to ease for.

  “We're now starting to look for offense in those really beaten up AI industrial names. ... If you're asking, do we think equity markets go higher from here? The answer is yes.”at 8:17

• Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro Research

  Defensive sectors will take a much bigger role in market returns, shifting away from cyclicals.

  DeGraaff sees two markets: an equal-weight S&P 500 that is overbought and a cap-weighted index that is middling. Staples, health care and utilities have run hard in recent weeks. He argues the market has already made its call, and given real rates, money is pushing toward defensive names rather than cyclicals, so defensives should matter far more to returns going forward.

  “I think the market has made its call, which is defensives are gonna have a much bigger place in the return function of the market going forward.”at 43:01

• Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro Research

  Breadth surge after a tech selloff has historically meant the market is higher three months later.

  About 50% of S&P 500 stocks hit a 20-day high on a day tech fell 1% or more, which DeGraaff says is unusual and last happened in May 2025. Rather than fleeing equities, investors rotated into other areas, particularly health care. DeGraaff cites a historical pattern: in 11 of 12 such cases the market was higher three months later. He says he would stick with that pattern now.

  “11 out of 12 times the market's higher three months out. And I would stick with that right here.”at 44:46

US rates & the Fed

• Chris Harvey · CIBC Capital Markets

  The Fed is in a tightening cycle, which keeps financials from rallying as curves flatten.

  In a tightening cycle, rates rise, the yield curve flattens, and consumers become a worry, and the usual pattern is that this doesn't work for financials. That is why financials have not played ball this year. He believes the Fed is tightening, even though it will have a tricky conversation about forward guidance.

  “I still don't think it's gonna play ball because we're in a tightening cycle. Usually, when you're tightening cycle, rates go higher, the curve flat, people worry about the consumer, and it just doesn't work.”at 8:56

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  Fed will not hike in October but will likely hike in December; it is removing accommodation, not tightening.

  He thinks the Fed will remove some accommodation rather than enter a true tightening cycle. Almost surely no hike at the October meeting, and probably one in December. He would bet dollars to donuts on no October hike. After December, the Fed will have to reassess next year. He still disagrees with the policy approach in principle.

  “We're we're almost surely not gonna get a hike at the October meeting. We'll probably get one at December, and then we'll have to see what happens thereafter.”at 9:45

US growth & recession risk

• Chris Harvey · CIBC Capital Markets

  The economy is beginning to slow as capital gets scarcer and the cost of capital rises for riskier borrowers.

  The amount of available capital is shrinking and the cost of capital is rising sharply further down the risk spectrum. This is happening now and will continue. Investors should ask whether money is good or bad and what they are willing to pay, because capital has been too cheap for too long. As the economy slows, that discipline matters more.

  “As we go forward in time, the economy is beginning to slow down. You do have to worry about... We have to start thinking about, is this money good? Is this money bad?”at 7:35

Oil & fuels

• Dan Greenhaus · Solus Alternative Asset Management

  Energy stocks are rallying largely on higher oil prices, not AI, with many near 52-week highs.

  The energy sector is doing well, and while some of that is AI-related, much of it reflects the higher price of oil. Many energy companies are at or near 52-week highs and generate enormous cash flow. Energy is only about 3% of the market, so he does not argue for an overweight. He says individual investors can still own energy stocks profitably.

  “The energy sector is doing really well, and it's not obviously AI... Some of it is AI related, but a lot of it is the higher price of oil.”at 10:17

Open-source AI models

• Jeff Richards · Notable Capital

  Open-weight models expand adoption, but customers still pay for the frontier, so closed labs keep their edge.

  Open-weight models will play an important role by making the technology cheaper and driving broader enterprise and consumer adoption, which is good for the industry. Consumption of Anthropic tokens is still rising, and 80% of its revenue comes from models released in the last six months. Customers such as hedge funds and biotech labs want the latest models, and open-weight models are typically not the cutting edge. Robotics will need the latest frontier models too.

  “Open source, open weight models are gonna play an important role in the AI ecosystem. ... people are willing to pay for the frontier models. When you're talking about an open source or an OpenAWeek model, you're probably not getting the very latest”at 21:06

US consumer

• Matthew Boss · JPMorgan

  Holiday consumer spending should be strong after accelerating growth through back-to-school and into October.

  Chase card data shows consumer spending growing about 6% year over year, accelerating from August into September and holding mid-single-digit growth through October. Back-to-school strength has historically been the lead indicator for holiday spending. Despite weak consumer confidence readings, the building blocks, such as low-income employment, support a solid holiday.

  “I actually think it's gonna be a good holiday. ... Chase credit card data points to roughly 6% expenditure growth on a year over year basis. That accelerated in the month of August into September”at 30:44

AI & jobs

• Matthew Boss · JPMorgan

  AI is not yet hurting service-sector jobs like police, firefighters and bartenders, so low-income employment holds.

  Low-income employment makes up 80% of spending intentions, and his coverage focuses on whether consumers have jobs and whether they fear losing them. He doesn't think AI is affecting jobs like policemen, firefighters, or bartenders, at least for now. That supports low-income consumer spending.

  “That makes up 80% of spending intentions. ... And I don't think AI is really impacting the policeman, the fireman, the bartender, at least not for now.”at 31:46

AI chips & semiconductors

• Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro Research

  Tech hardware and semis are oversold and set up for a bounce into month-end and November.

  DeGraaff's chart read is that tech hardware and semiconductors have become oversold after the tech selloff. He expects a nice bounce into the end of October and probably a decent part of November. He notes the market is churning, so the near-term relief in tech is a short-term move, not a change in the larger picture.

  “I see tech hardware and semis in particular being oversold and set up for a nice bounce into the end of the month and, probably, a decent part of November.”at 42:49

US Treasuries & yields

• Jeff deGraaf · Renaissance Macro Research

  With real rates elevated, a 66% equity portfolio now reaches the same return target that once needed 85%.

  DeGraaff argues that the stock-bond relationship is still in play. When yields were 2% or below, a blended 60/40-style portfolio needed roughly 85% equities to earn a 7 to 7.5% return. With real rates where they are now, a traditional household can hit the same target with about a 66% equity allocation. He thinks it will take time for investors to adjust, and that 2027 could bring this adjustment.

  “Now a traditional household can own a 66% equity portfolio and still hit that same target with real rates where they are.”at 45:15