Closing Bell Overtime: Big Tech Faces Another Earnings Test 10/29/26

Intel

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Cody Acree · StoneXBullish

  Intel is a buy into the selloff; AI CPU leverage and the foundry turnaround are the reasons to own it.

  PC weakness is a cyclical downdraft that has persisted for years and was never the reason to own Intel, so the quarter's PC-driven miss does not change the thesis. Data center results beat by about $500M and the shift to agentic inference keeps raising demand for CPUs, which Intel supplies. Foundry engagement at 14A has been expanding in breadth and pace, which could make Intel a real TSMC competitor over time. He says the reasons to own remain, that investors must live through the pain, and that he would buy aggressively into the drop.

  “So the reasons own intel are there, you're gonna have to live through this pain, but I'd be buying here aggressively into this downdraft.”at 16:04

• Mehdi Hosseini · Susquehanna International GroupBearish

  Intel's foundry was meant to be viable, but he sees no customer committing wafer loading in 1-2 years.

  TSMC remains the primary leading-edge foundry, and there is still no viable competitor to it. Intel was supposed to offer a viable foundry solution, but he does not see any customer working with Intel for wafer loading one or two years out. He covers TSMC and Samsung foundry rather than Intel, and he suggests the PC cover story may be masking weak foundry prospects.

  “Intel was supposed to offer a viable foundry solution, and I just don't see any customer working with Intel for wafer loading one or two years from here.”at 27:44

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein ResearchBearish

  Intel's Q4 guide is extremely weak, driven by PC client collapse; the drop is warranted.

  The quarter itself was fine, with revenue and margins above expectations, but the guide of $15.5B versus $17B consensus is extremely weak. He has long believed CPUs were over-shipping relative to PCs, and Q3 PC numbers were horrendous, likely the worst in at least twenty years, implying a sizable channel flush into Q4. To reconcile the guide, client revenue must fall at least 20% sequentially; even then data center would need to rise only about 10%, which he doubts is enough. Gross margin guidance of 38% sits about 400 basis points below the Street, and pricing upside does not appear to be enough to help. He says he is not surprised by the move.

  “I suspect that's where the weakness is. The quarter actually was fine... The guide is extremely weak though.”at 34:53

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein ResearchUncertain

  Intel is very expensive on current earnings; buyers are pricing a speculative multi-year foundry turnaround.

  Rasgon says Intel is a different company than when the government took its stake: the balance sheet is in better shape and the server market is helping. He still says valuations have risen and the stock is very expensive on earnings. He argues buyers are not paying for next year's earnings but for a structural change over about five years as Intel ramps its third-party foundry business. He thinks the market has much higher earnings power priced in for a few years out, but calls that speculative and up in the air.

  “The valuations have gone up. It's very expensive on earnings. People are buying it now. We're not buying it for like the earnings over the next year. They're buying it for like a structural change over the next like five years as they ramp you know third party foundry business.”at 37:16

Amazon.com

Across the shows: 22 speakers in other episodes, 21 bullish and 5 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tom Forte · Maxim GroupBullish

  Amazon's AWS was strong, but the Q4 retail quarter is at risk from gas prices; expects a rebound.

  AWS performed very well and looks set for a seventh straight quarter of accelerating growth. However, Q4 is Amazon's big retail quarter, and consumers appear to be increasingly hit by higher gas prices and a challenging macro backdrop. He thinks expectations got ahead of themselves and that the decline is driven by Q4 retail concerns, with the stock likely to rebound once the earnings call clarifies the AWS strength and near-term retail challenges. He rates the stock a buy with a $350 target.

  “So I think that the way that I look at the quarter is very good performance from AWS. Maybe expectations got a little ahead of themselves”at 19:28

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Amazon's post-earnings AWS and capex selloff is overdone; the stock is cheap relative to itself.

  Seymour says the AWS result missed an expectation the whispers had pushed to the mid-40s percent growth range, and the Q4 outlook is mid-to-high 40s. He calls the capex number the most aggressive he has seen so far. He says he is comfortable with Amazon over-investing for the future and that the retail miss is fine if it is cyclical. He sees the growing operating margin story as underappreciated and argues the stock is range-bound for 1.5 years and cheap relative to itself. He notes it trades at about 30 times, versus about 21 for peers. He says Anthropic's growth could be Amazon's gain on the retail side and that he is less concerned about return on investment because the core business and AWS are supported by the world's needs. He thinks the market wants more capex discipline, but says that is a leap from a couple of days of trading.

  “I think we appreciate the dynamic. First of the growing margin story at Amazon, I think, is underappreciated.”at 42:11

Advanced Micro Devices

Across the shows: 3 speakers in other episodes, 3 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Cody Acree · StoneXBullish

  AMD is more defensible than Intel given its enterprise mix and AI shipments like Helios and MI450.

  AMD is also PC-dependent, but it has less of a consumer bent and more of an enterprise bent, which makes it more defensible than Intel. It is also getting the AI trade, shipping its Helios product and MI450, which is an offset Intel does not yet have at scale. He expects AMD to be pulled into the PC downdraft to some extent before reporting next week.

  “They don't have quite as heavy of a consumer bent, a little more enterprise bent, so they're gonna be a little more defensible. They are getting the AI trade as well.”at 11:20

DoorDash

Across the shows: 2 speakers in other episodes, past 30 days

• Tom Forte · Maxim GroupBullish

  A combined DoorDash-Instacart would be a stronger delivery alternative to Amazon for retailers.

  A combined DoorDash and Instacart would be a stronger company than two weaker competitors. Retailers that are not comfortable using Amazon for delivery may prefer the combined platform, as Costco already illustrates. He sees the merged company as an alternative delivery option rather than a threat to Amazon.

  “Implications to the extent that I think it makes a stronger combined company versus perhaps two weaker competitors.”at 20:23

Sandisk

Across the shows: 1 speaker in other episodes, 1 bullish and 0 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Mehdi Hosseini · Susquehanna International GroupBullish

  Sandisk is set to benefit as AI inference drives flash SSD storage demand into 2027; upside remains.

  AI is migrating from training to inference, and he believes inference requires more storage, specifically flash-based SSDs. This gives 2027 an opportunity to differentiate Sandisk, and he sees annualized earning power of $250 pre-split, so there is still plenty of upside. He argues HBM may not sustain its growth in 2028, but SSD demand will keep growing at the same pace because flash is a critical component of inference. He rates the stock a buy with a $27.45 price target and says the results are not a sell-the-news event.

  “We're migrating from training to inferencing. And in my opinion, inferencing will require more storage. And the kind of storage you need is a flash based SSD.”at 26:25

NVIDIA

Across the shows: 47 speakers in other episodes, 40 bullish and 15 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein ResearchBullish

  Nvidia-type AI leaders are very cheap, if the AI bullish case plays out.

  Asked for relative value after the group's pullback, Rasgon says he likes the Nvidias of the world because they are very cheap. He conditions this on the AI bullishness: if the AI bull case does not work out, these companies are the ones driving the hype and would be hurt. The support is thin and the view is brief.

  “We'd like, you know, the NVIDIAs of the world. They are very cheap.”at 39:44

Alphabet

Across the shows: 36 speakers in other episodes, 26 bullish and 14 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBearish

  Google's core business is being challenged and will keep weighing on the stock.

  Seymour says the market is separating companies whose core businesses are being challenged from those whose core businesses are intact. Google is the poster child for the first group. He says that was true over the last couple of days, continues to be true, and will probably remain true. He ties this to the AI revenue question: whether the pie is getting bigger for everyone or whether incumbents' core businesses are being eroded.

  “Those folks who have a core business that's being challenged and Google is the poster child, over the last couple of days and continues to be and probably will be.”at 43:32

Microsoft

Across the shows: 32 speakers in other episodes, 27 bullish and 4 bearish calls, past 30 days

• Tim Seymour · Seymour Asset ManagementBullish

  Microsoft is the easiest investment in the group given its valuation, intact core business and Copilot progress.

  Seymour says the market is sorting companies by whether their core business is still intact. Companies with core businesses being challenged, like Google, are under pressure. Microsoft is the one he finds the easiest to invest in, given its valuation, its intact core business and what he calls the slow but real progress of Copilot. He argues the earnings season has not settled the question of whether the AI revenue pie is getting bigger for everyone.

  “Microsoft seems to me the one that is the easiest invest here given both valuation and the core business and what's truly slowly happening with Copilot.”at 43:46

AI chips & semiconductors

• Cody Acree · StoneX

  Memory price pressure will persist into next year, so PC buyers and makers face no cheaper PCs soon.

  Low-cost memory inventories were depleted, so OEMs had to buy at market rates, which has hit PC volumes. The PC life cycle has already been extending into three- and five-year periods, so CFOs will delay purchases under uncertain memory prices, hoping next year brings better supply. He does not expect that. He expects next year's supply-demand dynamics to look like today's, so cheaper PCs are unlikely anytime soon, though he understands the rationale for delaying purchases.

  “We're probably gonna face the same similar supply demand dynamics next year that we're facing today. So I don't think you're gonna get cheaper PCs anytime soon”at 12:16

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein Research

  PC shipments are weak because of a memory shortage, not falling demand; weakness likely lasts into 1H next year.

  Rasgon has been nervous about PCs and smartphones and flagged PCs as the biggest risk in his Intel preview. Third-party data show Q3 PC shipments down over 20% year over year and down double digits sequentially, where they usually rise double digits. He says this is the worst sequential quarter for PC shipments in about 20 years of data. He attributes it to PC makers being unable to build machines without memory, plus an inventory flush and PC CPUs having over-shipped for several quarters. He expects smartphones and broader consumer electronics to see the same pattern. Intel itself said the PC dynamics would last at least through the first half of next year, and Rasgon says the memory situation may not resolve for a while.

  “And the reason PCs are so weak, it's not because PC demand is necessary, it's because there's no memory. And you can't build the PCs.”at 38:22

• Stacy Rasgon · Bernstein Research

  Semiconductor equipment (semi cap) is a good way to play the memory shortage and capacity buildout.

  Rasgon says there is a memory shortage and chipmakers are adding capacity, but building it takes time. The tool vendors that supply that buildout are at the front of the trade. He cites KLA, which reported the previous night, as evidence the group is already seeing this. He says the firm likes semi cap as another way to play the memory shortage, alongside Nvidia-type AI names.

  “And frankly, all of these shortages, there's no memory. I mean, they are adding capacity now to make more of it, but it does take time to add that capacity... We like semi cap as another way to play this.”at 39:44

AI infrastructure & data centers

• Cody Acree · StoneX

  Agentic AI inference is shifting workloads toward CPUs, boosting demand for CPU makers like Intel.

  Data center demand is still very much on track, and usage is shifting toward agentic inference. That trend will become increasingly reliant on CPUs rather than GPUs, which benefits Intel's data center AI business, where results beat estimates by about $500M. Agentic workloads are a growing consumer trend, so the AI trade for CPU makers is persistent and likely to accelerate as agentic use becomes a bigger share of the workload.

  “We're still seeing a shift in usages towards agentic inferencing, and so that trend is going to be increasingly reliant on CPUs”at 13:26